Posts Tagged ‘Canada’

Borowitz Report – Canada Reports Huge Jump in Immigration

Canada Reports Huge Jump in Immigration

BEECHER FALLS, VT - MARCH 23:  U.S. Border Patrol Agent Andrew Mayer rides a ATV as he looks for signs of illegal entry along the boundary marker cut into the forest marking the line between Canadian territory on the right and the United States March 23, 2006 near Beecher Falls, Vermont. As American politicians continue to debate immigration reform, Border Patrol agents work the northern border to prevent illegal entry.  (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Over 55,000,000 Requests for Citizenship Since Tuesday Night

OTTAWA (The Borowitz Report) – Canadian immigration officials have reported a huge increase in the number of requests for Canadian citizenship in the past twenty-four hours, with over fifty-five million such inquiries pouring in since late Tuesday night.

Of those fifty-five million requests, well over 99.99% of them came from U.S. citizens, with a particularly large number coming from residents of Florida and Kentucky.

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon said that he was “flabbergasted” by the fifty-five-million-plus requests for Canadian citizenship, adding that it was difficult to pinpoint the precise reasons for the staggering increase.

“My only theory is that after the 2010 winter Olympics, the sport of curling is finally starting to catch on,” he said.

Continue here: Borowitz Report.


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Hugh Hendry Talks The Geopolitics Of Potash, Grains And Other Scarcities On BBC Newsnight

Hugh Hendry Talks The Geopolitics Of Potash, Grains And Other Scarcities On BBC Newsnight

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge 

With concerns about surging food prices recently inflamed courtesy of the series of fires in Russia and the halt of grains exports out of the country, several heavy hitters have come out recently to discuss their views. One among them is the man with the best YTD performing macro hedge fund according to Bloomberg, Hugh Hendry, who appeared on BBC’s ever-informative Newsnight to discuss potash, food prices, and other scarce resources.

On whether the world is facing a massive food shortage, Hugh’s conclusion is that as long as Asia does not have a recession, things are ok, otherwise "in due course there would be great pressure on the food supply." As for Potash, Hendry says that China and Canada "hate each other [in the space]. There has been a profound game of roulette – Chinese consumption of Potash is 35% less than used in Western agriculture. At these prices, the Chinese haven’t been consuming in the manner in that they should and they risk an absolute collapse in their yields… China does have a vulnerability in feeding itself which we don’t have because we embrace potash at productive levels."

As for geopolitics, the topic arises of what African quid pro quo demands for having the most arable land should be and sending products over to China. The observation is that Africa’s bargaining position is negligible (those Goldman offices in Ethiopia, protecting the interests of the locals, are oddly missing).

All this and more in the below clip: 


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Deflationary Wage Pressures Hit Canada; Attitudes and Wal-Mart, the 800-Pound Gorillas

Deflationary Wage Pressures Hit Canada; Attitudes and Wal-Mart, the 800-Pound Gorillas

Courtesy of Mish

A consortium of 30,000 union workers at Canadian food stores have gone on strike over company demands to reduce wages by as much as 25% and reduce pension benefits as well.

For their part, grocers want to remain competitive with Wal-Mart, the 800-pound retail gorilla. Who has the upper hand and why?

Please consider Ontario Loblaw workers approve strike mandate amid stalled contract talks.

Loblaw Co. workers in Ontario have overwhelmingly voted to give their union a strike mandate if Canada’s largest grocery chain doesn’t back down from concession demands that it says are necessary to remain competitive against its non-unionized rivals.

Over 97 per cent of members of the United Food and Commercial Workers union, which represents nearly 30,000 employees at stores under names such as Loblaws, Zehrs, Real Canadian Superstores and Fortinos, have voted in favour of a strike.

Loblaw says it must modify some of its existing agreements in order to stay competitive, as earnings have declined about five per cent from where they were five years ago.

Workers are frustrated over company proposals that would cut wages by up to 25 per cent, increase waiting times for benefits eligibility and reduce full-time jobs. Workers at those stores make between the minimum wage of $10.25 and $25 an hour, plus benefits.

But Loblaw says that it must increase efficiency to take on a growing number of non-unionized competitors, like U.S.-based retail giant Wal-Mart, which has been ramping up its focus on low-cost groceries.

"We are striving to reach an agreement that would enable the company to continue to meet the demands of today’s highly competitive retail landscape," Julija Hunter, the company’s vice-president of public relations, said in an emailed statement.

"In many contracts we pay 10 per cent more than competitors and have 15 per cent less flexibility. That’s a real competitive disadvantage. That’s not sustainable," Hunter said.

Attitudes and the 800-Pound Deflationary Gorilla

Like it or not, and the unions and Wal-Mart haters won’t, there is only one reasonable way of looking at this….

Loblaws, Zehrs, Real Canadian Superstores and Fortinos need to be competitive to stay in business. If they fail to stay in business, every job at everyone of those stores will be lost or reorganized in a bankruptcy process. Accrued pensions may blow up in…
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Vancouver Home Sales Drop 30 Percent , Calgary 42 Percent – First Comes Volume, Then Comes Price; Canada Housing Peak is Finally In

Vancouver Home Sales Drop 30 Percent , Calgary 42 Percent – First Comes Volume, Then Comes Price; Canada Housing Peak is Finally In

Courtesy of Mish 

The Globe and Mail reports Vancouver home sales drop sharply.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported yesterday that home sales fell 30.2 per cent in June from the inflated levels of a year earlier, and 5.8 per cent from May. New property listings rose 1.2 per cent from May and 32 per cent from a year earlier.

The Calgary Real Estate Board, meanwhile, reported sales of single family homes fell 16 per cent in June from May and 42 per cent from June of 2009, while condo sales fell 14 per cent from a month earlier and 40 per cent from a year earlier. Notable is that sales of high-end properties worth $1-million or more are rising, the group said.

“We are seeing continued moderation in Calgary’s home sales in the face of higher mortgage rates, increased inventory levels and a decreasing number of first-time home buyers entering the market,” said board president Diane Scott.

This pattern is quite similar to how things cascaded in the US once the top was in.

Housing Collapse Cascade Pattern

  • Volume drops precipitously
  • Prices soften a bit
  • Inventory levels rise slowly
  • High-end home prices remain relatively steady for a brief while longer
  • The real estate industry tries to convince everyone it’s "business as usual" and homes are affordable because rates are low
  • Bubble denial kicks in with media articles everywhere touting the "fundamentals"
  • Stubborn sellers hold out for last year’s prices as volume continues to shrink
  • Inventory levels reach new highs
  • Builders start offering huge incentives to clear inventory
  • Some sellers finally realize (too late) what is happening
  • Price declines hit the high-end
  • Increasingly desperate sellers get creative with incentives, offering new cars, below market interest rates, trips, etc
  • Gimmicks do not work
  • Price declines escalate sharply at all price levels
  • The Central Bank issues statements that housing is fundamentally sound
  • Prices collapse, inventory skyrockets, and builders holding inventory go bankrupt

Some of those may happen simultaneously or in a different order, but the whole mess starts with a huge plunge in volume.

I am now confident the peak in Canadian housing insanity is finally in.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Picture credit: Jr. Deputy Accountant 


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Australia Holds Rates at 4.5%; Canada is First G-7 Country to Hike

Australia Holds Rates at 4.5%; Canada is First G-7 Country to Hike

Kangaroo road sign

Courtesy of Mish 

Australia may have seen its last rate hike for quite some time. Today the Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rate at 4.5% to Gauge Market Turmoil.

Australia’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and signaled it may keep borrowing costs steady in coming months as it assesses the impact of the most aggressive rate increases in the Group of 20.

Governor Glenn Stevens and his policy-setting board kept the overnight cash rate target at 4.5 percent, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a statement in Sydney today. The decision was predicted by all 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“They’re not going to be looking to hike interest rates for the next couple of months,” said Ben Dinte, an economist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Sydney. “But at the same time they’re still commenting on the terms of trade and inflation. While they’re on hold, they’re not ruling out further increases later this year or early 2011.”

Stevens increased rates from a half-century low of 3 percent in early October, citing surging Asian demand for Australian commodities and a jobs boom that has pushed down unemployment to around half that of the U.S. and Europe.

The interest-rate moves helped stoke a 27 percent gain in Australia’s dollar in the 12 months through April 30, making it the second-best performer among the world’s 16 most-traded currencies. The currency has since pared around half of those gains as European Union policy makers moved to prevent a potential Greek debt default.

Canada is First G-7 Country to Hike

In what is likely a symbolic measure more than anything else, Canada Hikes Interest Rate to 0.5%

Canada on Tuesday became the first Group of Seven nation to raise interest rates since the global financial crisis, but said any further hikes would depend on global economic conditions.

The Bank of Canada increased its key interest rate by a quarter point to .50 percent from a record-low rate of .25 percent. It said the decision to raise rates still leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place.

Economists widely expected the central bank to raise rates after the country’s economy grew 6.1 percent in the first three months of this year, emerging from the global downturn faster than the U.S.

"While Canada joined


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Hosed in Canada; Housing Crash is a Given

Hosed in Canada; Housing Crash is a Given

Courtesy of Mish

Houses in winter, Inuvik, NWT, Canada

Inquiring mind may be interested in an email from Robert Clegg at the University of Calgary regarding housing prices in Canada vs. disposable income.

Robert writes …

Mish, I love your blog and read it daily. I came across this article with respect to Canada’s housing bubble. The articles states, " Canadians are spending more and more of their disposable income on housing. In Toronto, 44% of disposable income goes to housing and in Vancouver the figure is a whopping 68%. The trend is likely not sustainable."

Imagine, 68% of your disposable income being spent on housing costs with the remaining disposable income likely being spent on their favorite Top Ramen and KD dinners. This is insane as well as unsustainable. It’s funny that many Canadians seems to think that the 49th parallel has magically created immunity from a housing bust that in their minds is exclusive to the United States. I can’t tell you how many times friends and acquaintances say that Canada’s banks are sound and there was no sub-prime lending and it just can’t happen here. I’m quick to remind them that the loss of one income from a two income family will in essence convert a low credit risk to a poor credit risk akin to that of a sub-prime borrower real fast. Now, multiply this my hundreds of thousands if not millions of borrows and we too have a major problem in Canada no different from that of the US. Wishful thinking really. The proof’s in the pudding and this puddings going to bring a dose of reality to those that are living in fantasy land, way beyond their means and who apparently have missed the global financial crisis that’s been gaining traction and intensity since August 2007.

We’re not only "Hosers" in Canada but we’re royally Hosed as well!!

Robert Clegg, JD, LL.M
Ombudsman, University of Calgary
Calgary, Alberta

Is Canada’s housing bubble about to burst?

Here is the article to which Robert Clegg referred: Is Canada’s housing bubble about to burst?

Canadians are spending more and more of their disposable income on housing. In Toronto, 44% of disposable income goes to housing and in Vancouver the figure is a whopping 68%. The trend is likely not sustainable.

The federal government imposed tighter mortgage


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Sunday Funnies 2010-05-23: Gorilla has Message for Markets; Video on Quangos; 25 Cents a Poop in Canada

Sunday Funnies 2010-05-23: Gorilla has Message for Markets; Video on Quangos; 25 Cents a Poop in Canada

Courtesy of Mish 

The 800 pound gorilla is large and in charge. He has this message for politicians and their short selling bans, austerity programs, job programs, affordable home programs, economic bailouts, and most of all recovery announcements.

Image from Funny Chill.

On Reducing Quangos

In response to 300,000 UK Public Sector Jobs Face Axe; No Sacred Cows Including Quangos; What the Hell are Quangos?

"SS" writes …

Quangos are quangos. I don’t think they are as big as the GSEs are in the US. There is a BBC serial (from the early ’80′s) Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister, a comedy series and I remember one of the episodes was on Quangos. I found some on You Tube. Humor is typically British and was a big hit in India.

The first 3.5 minutes of that are hilarious. After that not much. Give it a play. It’s very funny for a third of the video.

On the subject of quangos, Nadeem at Market Oracle writes "The number will be more like 600,000. There will be riots next summer in Liverpool and Newcastle and elsewhere where the public sector is nearly 3/4 of the economy."

25 Cents a Poop in Canada 

Here is an interesting development in Canada, courtesy of government bureaucrats who have never ending ways to spend your money. At $400,000 each, Automatic public toilet debuts in Toronto.

For those who can give two bits, Toronto’s first automated pay toilet is now taking customers at 25 cents a poop — er, pop.

“They are modern, state of the art washrooms — they actually clean themselves after each use. Now try that at home,” Mayor David Miller said before cutting a blue ribbon to open the loo.

A large crowd of press, officials and curious onlookers were on hand for the grand opening of the automated john, the first of 20 planned across the city over the next 20 years.

The new bathroom automatically cleans itself and will also get visited by an attendant three times a day.

The Automated Public Toilets will take any coins up to and including toonies and will provide change. They will also work with tokens that the city plans to distribute to homeless people through


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Tax and Spend Policies Threaten US, Europe; Misguided Policies Everywhere Threaten Global Growth

Tax and Spend Policies Threaten US, Europe; Misguided Policies Everywhere Threaten Global Growth

Courtesy of Mish

Germany, Berlin, The Brandenburg Gate, night

Although all eyes have been focused on the PIIGS in Europe (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain), and the CINN group in the US (California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey), tax and spend problems are everywhere you look, including Germany.

Please consider German Municipalities face €15-billion shortfall.

Germany’s local governments are slipping into their budget worst crisis since World War II, with total deficits of €15 billion forecast for this year, the German Association of Cities warned Friday.

The association’s president, Frankfurt Mayor Petra Roth, told the Frankfurter Rundschau that the dismal environment for tax revenues in 2009 meant a new record deficit was looming.

It would be €3 billion worse than previously thought, Roth said, and would nearly double the previous record deficits of 2003. Over the past year alone, municipalities had spent at least €7 billion more than they took in, she said.

“Our budgets are completely overstretched,” Roth said, adding that she welcomed Chancellor Angela Merkel’s recent statement ruling out tax cuts for the time being.

She blamed poor federal government policies for the dire situation of the municipalities, saying that about half the shortfall were due not to the economic situation, but to tax policies.

The Finance Ministry’s approach in its efforts to reform the tax system had been “ineffectual,” she said.

Meanwhile Back in the US …

USA, California, sunset on Bay Bridge to San Francisco from Treasure Island

In a crucial budget address on Friday, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger blew a golden opportunity to propose radical changes like privatizing the prison system, privatizing work in general, sending illegal aliens home, or getting rid of defined benefit plans.

Instead, Schwarzenegger wimped out on many key issues. (please see Schwarzenegger’s Budget Addresses Few Structural Issues for details).

In general, over the last couple decades, the US has been becoming more like Greece, taking form productive members of society and giving it to the union parasites and others in social distribution schemes.

“We will not pass a budget that eliminates CalWorks,” state Senate President Darrell Steinberg told reporters after the governor’s speech. “We will not be party to devastating families. That’s not what any of us came to Sacramento to do.”

Who wants to cut taxes and spending?

Not Frankfurt Mayor Petra Roth, not Schwarzenegger, not Illinois Governor Pay Quinn, and certainly not…
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Email From Canada: It’s Different Up Here – It Really Is!

Email From Canada: It’s Different Up Here – It Really Is!

Courtesy of Mish 

The staircase down to the Rue du Petit-Champlain, in the historic old Quebec city, Quebec, Canada.

In response to Canada’s Household Debt Reaches Record $42,000 a Person I received an email from Paul Kilby of Canada (city unknown), who thinks it’s different in Canada.

After correcting at least 20 typos and spelling errors, Paul writes …

As a Canadian I take great umbrage at yet another irresponsible bearish article from you.

Reasons:

1)Your type of advice has lost investors a double over the past 15 months
2)You have no understanding of how high ratio mortgages are funded in Canada(hint: Its not the cowboy Fannie, Freddie, package them and sell them as AAA debts etc)
3)Canada’s vast natural resources and tiny population largely insulate us from all but the direst long lasting downturn which we are obviously not having worldwide nor are we likely to
4)Our banks are very solidly capitalized and would require a 25% downturn in real estate values to even begin to dent this solid position as well as vast defaults on other debts. That’s nationwide. We are not, I repeat not, oversupplied in housing in the vast majority of the country.
5) Barring a worldwide collapse that would make 08-early09 look like child’s play what calamity do you have in mind that would knock Canadian RE values for such a loop.

Even you must admit the most likely scenario now is a world muddling through the next 3 to 5 years, hardly the stuff real estate collapses are made of.

Do I think we will have a correction in overheated markets (Van to Calgary. Yes, but nationally this will likely translate into a 10 to 15 % overall decline and likely take 18 months to 2 years to complete.

In case you haven’t noticed, Bernanke, Geithner et al will not permit asset prices to collapse worldwide, the US dollar be damned. As an American this must be very upsetting to you but please don’t pretend to know anything of Canada s economic position as you clearly don’t.

Paul Kilby

Modern Office Building With Fountains Ontario

Dear Paul…

It is not different in Canada no matter what you think.

However, let’s start at the beginning of your rant. For starters, I did not cost anyone in Canada a dime. Most of my readers believe as I do and were not about to plunge into an…
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U.S. GDP Review — Consumer, Where Art Thou?

U.S. GDP Review — Consumer, Where Art Thou?

Courtesy of John Mauldin’s Outside the Box, with Guest Author Dave Rosenberg

This week I am in the office for just one day, but I can rely on my friend Dave Rosenberg to give us solid insight on the latest GDP numbers for this week’s Outside the Box. Dave slices and dices to show us what really happened. David was the former Chief Economist at the former Merrill Lynch (ah, Mother Merrill, we barely knew ye.) and is now Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., which is one of Canada’s pre-eminent wealth management firms. Founded in 1984, they manage $4.4 billion. David notes that the data gives us a mixed picture.

I am in Maine later this week. It is likely I will be on CNBC, as they will be shooting live from our fishing camp. Also, they plan to do a one hour special with a number of interviews. I will let you know when it airs. A quick note from me: The third quarter is likely to be positive, especially given the success of the "Cash for Clunkers" program which it looks like our Congress is going to pass another round of spending which taxpayers (our kids) will get to pay off, or more likely pay $50 million per years for decades in interest. Sigh. Essentially, we are moving up car sales today which would have been made later, except that if you can get someone else to make your down payment, why not make that purchase today? A very reasonable response on the part of the consumer.

A teaser from Dave’s work below: "Consumer spending came in at -1.2% annualized, twice the decline expected by the consensus. This occurred in the face of gargantuan fiscal stimulus and leaves wondering how this critical 70% chunk of the economy is going to perform as the cash-flow boost from Uncle Sam’s generosity recedes in the second half of the year. Imagine, government transfers to the household sector exploded at a 33% annual rate, while tax payments imploded at a 33% annual rate and the best we can do is a -1.2% annualized decline in consumer spending in real terms and flat in nominal terms? What do we do for an encore? In the absence of the fiscal largesse, it is quite conceivable that consumer spending would…
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Zero Hedge

Toronto's Housing Bubble Is Crushing The Strip Club Industry

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Until now, Canada's soaring housing prices were just another innocent asset bubble spawned by low interest rates and an endless supply of Chinese cash that needed to get laundered.  That said, massive bubbles are almost always followed by severe unintended consequences that can have a crippling impact on society as a whole...and in Toronto those unintended consequences are now manifesting themselves in the form of a rapidly deteriorating supply of strip clubs.

As Bloomberg points out today, the soaring value ...



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Phil's Favorites

In Stunning Victory, Democrat Doug Jones Wins Alabama Senate Seat; Trump Responds: "A Win Is A Win..."

 

Source: NY Times

****

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Update: President Trump has reacted to Doug Jones' victory:

...

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Digital Currencies

Not A Bubble?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Meet The Crypto Company - up almost 20,000% since inception in September...

To a market cap of over $12.6 billion...

Grant's Interest Rate Observer drew the world's attention to this 'company' yesterday.....



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Insider Scoop

The Market In 5 Minutes: Bitcoin, Comcast Drops Fox Bid, FOMC Meeting Begins

Courtesy of Benzinga.

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Chart School

Small Caps and Semiconductors Still in Shorting Territory

Courtesy of Declan.

While it was good day for Tech and Large Cap Indices it was a more muddled day for the Russell 2000 and Semiconductor Index.

The Russell 2000 wasn't able to enjoy the fruits of what was low key buying experienced in other indices. A second doji in a row gives shorts something to work with as the 'Bull Trap' continues to influence buyers behavior.


The Semicondcutor Index was able to post similar gains as other lead indices but hasn't yet done enough to challenge its 50-day MA. ...

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Biotech

DNA has gone digital - what could possibly go wrong?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA has gone digital – what could possibly go wrong?

Courtesy of Jenna E. GallegosColorado State University and Jean PeccoudColorado State University

Modern advances come with new liabilities. Sergey ...



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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