Posts Tagged ‘central bank’

SUPREME COURT RULES FED MUST RELEASE ALL BAILOUT DATA

Courtesy of The Daily Bail

Video – The Fed has 5 days to release all data.

March 21 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve must disclose details of emergency loans it made to banks in 2008, after the U.S. Supreme Court rejected an industry appeal that aimed to shield the records from public view.  The justices today left intact a court order that gives the Fed five days to release the records, sought by Bloomberg.

A huge win for transparency.

Statement from Matthew Winkler, editor in chief of Bloomberg News:

As a financial crisis developed in 2007, "The Federal Reserve forgot that it is the central bank for the people of the United States and not a private academy where decisions of great importance may be withheld from public scrutiny.  The Fed must be accountable to Congress, especially in disclosing what it does with the people’s money."

“The board will fully comply with the court’s decision and is preparing to make the information available,” said David Skidmore, a spokesman for the Fed.

The order marks the first time a court has forced the Fed to reveal the names of banks that borrowed from its oldest lending program, the 98-year-old discount window. The disclosures, together with details of six bailout programs released by the central bank in December under a congressional mandate, would give taxpayers insight into the Fed’s unprecedented $3.5 trillion effort to stem the 2008 financial panic.

“I can’t recall that the Fed was ever sued and forced to release information” in its 98-year history, said Allan H. Meltzer, the author of three books on the U.S central bank and a professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

Continue reading at Bloomberg… 


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Philly Fed’s Plosser Goes Off the Reservation, Admits Monetary Policy is Impotent

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant

That’s not omnipotent, that’s impotent as in the f**kers are shooting blanks and don’t even know it. Well Chuck Plosser knows it but if he keeps this up they’re going to drag him off and sequester him in the bunker they reserve for bad central bankers who can’t keep their mouths shut.

See The Scope and Responsibilities of Monetary Policy from Santiago, Chile yesterday:

Most economists now understand that in the long run, monetary policy determines only the level of prices and not the unemployment rate or other real variables.2 In this sense, it is monetary policy that has ultimate responsibility for the purchasing power of a nation’s fiat currency. Employment depends on many other more important factors, such as demographics, productivity, tax policy, and labor laws. Nevertheless, monetary policy can sometimes temporarily stimulate real economic activity in the short run, albeit with considerable uncertainty as to the timing and magnitude, what economists call the “long and variable lag.” Any boost to the real economy from stimulative monetary policy will eventually fade away as prices rise and the purchasing power of money erodes in response to the policy. Even the temporary benefit can be mitigated, or completely negated, if inflation expectations rise in reaction to the monetary accommodation.

Nonetheless, the notion persists that activist monetary policy can help stabilize the macroeconomy against a wide array of shocks, such as a sharp rise in the price of oil or a sharp drop in the price of housing. In my view, monetary policy’s ability to neutralize the real economic consequences of such shocks is actually quite limited. Successfully implementing such an economic stabilization policy requires predicting the state of the economy more than a year in advance and anticipating the nature, timing, and likely impact of future shocks. The truth is that economists simply do not possess the knowledge to make such forecasts with the degree of precision that would be needed to offset the economic shocks. Attempts to stabilize the economy will, more likely than not, end up providing stimulus when none is needed, or vice versa. It also risks distorting price signals and thus resource allocations, adding to instability. So asking monetary policy to do what it cannot do with aggressive attempts at stabilization can actually increase economic instability rather than reduce it.

I know you’re dying to know what footnote 2 is.…
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QE2 is not only a mistake “it’s criminal” says Vitaliy Katsenelson: Tech Ticker

The Treasury market is rebounding Thursday. Yields have fallen from a six-month high, reached Wednesday, but are still up from where they were earlier in the week. Yields on the 10-year are trading at 3.23% today.

This is not what the Federal Reserve had in mind when the central bank announced the plan to purchase $600 billion in Treasury bonds — a move that was hoped would lower rates and stimulate the U.S. economy.

Of course, there are many critics of the Fed who say the second round of quantitative easing is wrong and even harmful. "The failure of QE2 doesn’t worry me, it’s the success that worries me," says Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates.

"I think it’s criminal," he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. "They’re forcing people that should not be taking risk to take risk."  The fear is the Fed is repeating its past mistakes — helping to build an asset bubble that will eventually burst with grave consequences.

More here: qe2 is not only a mistake "it’s criminal" says vitaliy katsenelson: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance.


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IS THE ECB ABOUT TO GO NUCLEAR?

IS THE ECB ABOUT TO GO NUCLEAR?

Bikini Bomb

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The ECB is in a most unenviable position.  As the EMU begins to falter they are confronted with few tools with which to fight this battle.  The market called their bluff yesterday with the Greek bailout and is clearly looking past Greece at Portugal and Spain while daring the ECB to make a move on either country.  The bond “vigilantes” are betting on the fact that the ECB has overplayed their hand with the Greek bailout.  At this point, it looks like the vigilantes are correct.  The ECB put a gun on the table and it turns out to have been nothing more than a water pistol.  Unfortunately for the vigilantes the ECB is not out of tricks.  They have a Hank Paulson like bazooka in their option to buy bonds on the secondary market.  But can they use it?   RBS analysts believe they should not hesitate in acting:

“The ECB should not wait for a renewed deterioration of the periphery before acting. It should regain its leadership in tackling the crisis following a complete communication and coordination failure amongst euro area fiscal authorities around the Greek crisis. Should contagion reappear, there will probably not be enough time to go through a similar backstop facility to that of Greece for the next country. There simply will not be enough time. Better breaking the rule-book than breaking up the euro area!”

Unfortunately, the decision is a bit more complex than the Fed’s decision to buy assets directly from the U.S.banks – what many refer to as “quantitative easing”.  As we’ve previously explained, the Euro is flawed primarily because it is one currency housed under several economies with multiple governments.  They are not truly unified because their economic strategies differ which make their inherent monetary needs different.  Using the same currency for economies as different as Germany and Greece is truly forcing a square peg in a round hole.

Where are the potential roadblocks to QE?   First of all, the program would have to be massive.  Credit Suisse estimates that the cost to bailout Spain, Portgual and Greece could be as high as $600B.  The program would almost certainly have to be as large in order to quell any and all market fears.  But the bigger roadblock is the Maastricht treaty.  Although the ECB could technically…
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IMPLICATIONS OF THE DISCOUNT RATE HIKE

IMPLICATIONS OF THE DISCOUNT RATE HIKE

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist  

Bloomberg’s Scott Lanman reports on the Federal Reserve Board’s decision to raise the discount rate to banks for direct loans by a quarter point to 0.75 percent. The Fed said the move will encourage financial institutions to rely more on money markets rather than the central bank for short-term liquidity needs.

Source: Bloomberg  


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Duck Tales inflation lesson

Duck Tales inflation lesson

Courtesy of Tim Iacono at The Daily Bail

Even though this is a cartoon, it provides a pretty good explanation of what goes on in a pure fiat money system where trust is placed in the central bank and the government to not abuse the power that they and only they have to create money.
 

Spotted over at The Daily Bail where there seems to be an inexhaustible supply of interesting things to watch on YouTube.

 


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Japan’s New Kamikaze Central Banker and the Nikkei’s Awakening

Japan’s New Kamikaze Central Banker and the Nikkei’s Awakening

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker

"There are a lot of voices in the business world saying that the dollar around Y95 is appropriate in terms of trade…in cooperation with the Bank of Japan, I will make efforts to…bring the exchange rate to appropriate levels."

- New Japanese Finance Minister, January 7th 2010

Ignore Japan’s new central banker at your own risk, because he’s on a mission to blow up the Yen.

This is a developing story and I am hardly an expert on Japanese stocks, but I have to believe that Japanese bankers have taken notice of the weak dollar-led recovery in US asset prices and may want to make moves of their own.

By now, most market players are keenly aware of the dollar’s current (mostly inverse) relationship to stock prices.  They should also consider that the Yen makes up about 13.5% of the US Dollar Index (USDX), nowhere near the weighting of the Euro cross (58%) but more significant than any of the other currencies.

Below is the Nikkei 225 index over the last 40 years:

Nikkei

The Nikkei is currently selling at a 75% discount to its 1989 high (38,000) and the country is desperate to avoid another dip as well as to stop the deflationary cycle and put an end to its two Lost Decades.  The strategy, according to new Finance Minister (and deputy PM) Naoto Kan, is an orchestrated debasing of the Yen.  This will help inflate assets and, more importantly, get exports going via more competitive pricing.

Kan stepped in to the role yesterday when his predecessor stepped away for health reasons; he is the sixth Japanese finance minister since August 2008.

Unlike our disingenuous Treasury officials, who pretend to stand for a strong dollar, Kan has spent his first day on the job publicly stating he’d like a weaker Yen.

Japanese stocks just took out a 15 month high on Kan’s opening remarks as Japanese analysts expressed their bullishness:

"Upward momentum for Japanese stocks is becoming apparent and that will likely continue, due to a recovery in the global economy, the weaker yen and receding worries about equity financing by banks," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager of equity marketing at Nikko Cordial Securities.

The Nikkei is currently trading at…
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Economists Opposing Fed Audit Have Undisclosed Fed Ties

Ryan Grim is the senior congressional correspondent for the Huffington Post, former staff reporter with Politico.com and Washington City Paper, and author of the book, "This Is Your Country on Drugs." Ryan won the 2007 Alt-Weekly Award for best long-form news-story. – Ilene

Economists Opposing Fed Audit Have Undisclosed Fed Ties

Courtesy of Ryan Grim

Article appears originally in the Huffington Post

As the debate over an audit of the Federal Reserve intensifies in the House, one camp is trotting out eight academics that it calls a "political cross section of prominent economists."

A review of their backgrounds shows they are anything but.

In a letter to the House Financial Services Committee earlier this month, all eight wrote that they support the type of amendment now being introduced by Rep. Mel Watt (D-N.C.). Watt’s approach purports to increase Fed transparency while it actually would tighten restrictions on any audits that could go forward.

The letter was sent around Wednesday by Watt’s staff to members of the committee in advance of a vote scheduled for Thursday.

Watt’s measure is in competition with an amendment cosponsored by Reps. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), which would repeal the restrictions that Watt leaves in place.

But far from a broad cross-section, the "prominent economists" lobbying on behalf of the Watt bill are in fact deeply involved with the Federal Reserve. Seven of the eight are either currently on the Fed’s payroll or have been in the past.

The Fed connections are not outlined in the letter sent around to committee members on Wednesday, but are publicly discernible through a review of their resumes, which are all posted online.

In September, Huffington Post reported that the Federal Reserve has accomplished a soft form of effective control over the field of monetary economics simply by employing — and being the means for career advance — for an overwhelming proportion of the discipline.

Now that the Fed is locked in a legislative battle on the Hill, it can call on those economists to give their "unvarnished" opinions to lawmakers.

The connections that the seven economists lobbying Congress have to the Fed are not incidental and four of them maintain current positions.

Let’s run the traps:

Frederic Mishkin is a former board member, having served from 2006-2008. His career at the Fed…
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Preliminary Q3 2009 Bank Stress Test Results

Preliminary Q3 2009 Bank Stress Test Results

Courtesy of Damien Hoffman of Wall St. Cheat Sheet

A female doctor performing a stress test on a man

This is a guest post by the Institutional Risk Analyst.

“It is now almost twenty years since J.P. Morgan and Company, its associates and its satellites attempted to induce Congress to create a central bank of issue instead of the Federal Reserve System. They were determined that control of the national purse should remain in New York. The theory underlying the proposed system that the several sections of the country should control their own finances was preposterous. To them it was anathema. Ten short years later the same group, represented by the same agent who had led their lost cause in Washington, took charge of the Federal Reserve System. For practical purposes the system was transformed into a central bank, and was manipulated to the very ends that its authors had sought to guard against.”

The Mirrors of Wall Street, Clinton Gilbert, 1933

We want to update our readers on the preliminary Stress Index results for the US commercial banking industry in Q3 2009. Last week, when The IRA Bank Monitor had gathered some 5,000 bank CALL reports from the FDIC’s central data repository, the Stress Index stood at just 6.45 vs. the preliminary stress level of 6.7 last quarter. That preliminary result for Q2 2009 was when we had some 7,000 bank CALL reports gathered, just before the FDIC press conference.

stress_test

Since we initiated our automated tool for gathering FDIC CALL reports and grinding preliminary stress ratings, we’ve cut three weeks off of the wait time to access our Stress Ratings. But today, with 6,936 FDIC bank CALL reports in the house, we have a preliminary Stress Index score of 7.46 for Q3 2009, significantly higher than the Q2 2009 preliminary results, like 10% higher. The seemingly favorable Stress Index number last week for Q3, when we had just 5,000 banks in hand, was a head fake.

In fact, the far worse result for our Stress Index survey vs. Q2 suggests that levels of stress in FDIC insured banks are continuing to build, from multiple factors, even as the subsidies that make the large banks look less risky are being withdrawn. In Q2 2009, when we added the largest banks and all thrifts to the ratings survey,…
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The Economic Recovery is an Illusion

The Economic Recovery is an Illusion

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Warns of Future Crises


 

Courtesy of Global Research, by Andrew Gavin Marshall

War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength, and Debt is Recovery

In light of the ever-present and unyieldingly persistent exclamations of ‘an end’ to the recession, a ‘solution’ to the crisis, and a ‘recovery’ of the economy; we must remember that we are being told this by the very same people and institutions which told us, in years past, that there was ‘nothing to worry about,’ that ‘the fundamentals are fine,’ and that there was ‘no danger’ of an economic crisis.
 
Why do we continue to believe the same people that have, in both statements and choices, been nothing but wrong? Who should we believe and turn to for more accurate information and analysis? Perhaps a useful source would be those at the epicenter of the crisis, in the heart of the shadowy world of central banking, at the global banking regulator, and the “most prestigious financial institution in the world,” which accurately predicted the crisis thus far: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS). This would be a good place to start.
 
The economic crisis is anything but over, the “solutions” have been akin to putting a band-aid on an amputated arm. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank to the world’s central banks, has warned and continues to warn against such misplaced hopes.
 
What is the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)?
 
The BIS emerged from the Young Committee set up in 1929, which was created to handle the settlements of German reparations payments outlined in the Versailles Treaty of 1919. The Committee was headed by Owen D. Young, President and CEO of General Electric, co-author of the 1924 Dawes Plan, member of the Board of Trustees of the Rockefeller Foundation and was Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As the main American delegate to the conference on German reparations, he was also accompanied by J.P. Morgan, Jr.[1] What emerged was the Young Plan for German reparations payments.
 
The Plan went into effect in 1930, following the stock market crash. Part of the Plan entailed the creation of an international settlement organization, which was formed in 1930, and


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Phil's Favorites

A Positive Divergence at Last

Can it be, possibly, something other than awful going on in the stock market?

A Positive Divergence at Last

Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker

Technicians don’t crack snake eggs into a bowl and whip an elongated pinky fingernail through the yolk to make proclamations about the market’s future.

That would be kind of cool, but it probably wouldn’t be very effective.

Instead, they study the behavior of their fellow market participants to detect the possibility of turning points or meaningful change. There’s no mechanical equation or formula, which leads simpletons to the conclusion that “It doesn’t work.” But when used appropriately, TA can give you a...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Gold Rush Speeds Up as Fear Mounts (Bloomberg)

Investors scoop up precious metals, Treasuries, and money markets.

Worst Still Ahead for Mining Industry After Losing $1.4 Trillion (Bloomberg)

When you find yourself in a hole, the saying goes, stop digging. A simple lesson that arguably has bypassed a mining industry that’s wiped out more than $1.4 trillion of shareholder value by digging too many holes around the globe. The industry's 73 percent plunge from a 2011 peak is far beyond the oil industry's 49 percent loss ...



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Zero Hedge

Paul Craig Roberts: Are Americans Too Insouciant To Survive?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

When one looks at the deplorable state of the world, one cannot help but wonder at the insouciance of the American people. Where are they? Do they exist or are they a myth? Have they been put to sleep by an evil demon? Are they so lost in The Matrix that they cannot get out?

Ever since Clinton’s second term the US has been consistently acting internationally and domestically as a criminal, disregarding its own laws, international laws, the sovereignty of other countries, and the US Constitution. A worse criminal govern...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Big test for those that have been wrong, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

In May of last year, the S&P hit a key level and stopped on a dime. We applied Fibonacci tools to the highs in 2007 and the lows in 2009, to the chart above. The 161% Fibonacci extension level came into play in the 2,150 zone last year and when hit at (1), the markets stopped on a dime.

If your tools or adviser has suggested to be long and strong since May of 2015, that advice has been costly.

Our take, “Free advice that is wrong, is expensive!!!”

Below looks at stock i...



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Chart School

Further Losses But No Breakaway

Courtesy of Declan.

The Asian session had set up for big losses, but markets were able to defend against such losses even if finishing with a lower close.

The S&P tagged the January low, but it's hard to see it holding out if there's another challenge on 1,810.


The Nasdaq was able to register a higher close (although below the prior day's close). It probably did enough to negate what is normally a bearish black candlestick, but bulls won't have any confidence until the bearish channel is broken.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of February 8th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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ValueWalk

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

 

Why Most Investors Fail in the Stock Market

Courtesy of ValueWalk, by  

Throughout the past 30 days of wild volatility, here’s what I didn’t do.

Panic. Worry. Sell.

In fact, the best I did was add to a couple of positions yesterday. The world was already in an uncertain state for the past 3+ years. It’s just that with the market rising, we pushed the issue to the back of our  mind and ignored it.

If you read Howard Marks latest memo, ...



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Digital Currencies

2016 Theme #3: The Rise Of Independent (Non-State) Crypto-Currencies

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith at Of Two Minds

A number of systemic, structural forces are intersecting in 2016. One is the rise of non-state, non-central-bank-issued crypto-currencies.

We all know money is created and distributed by governments and central banks. The reason is simple: control the money and you control everything.

The invention of the blockchain and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin have opened the door to non-state, non-central-bank currencies--money that is global and independent of any state or central bank, or indeed, any bank, as crypto-currencies are structurally peer-to-peer, meaning they don't require a bank to function: people can exchange crypto-currencies to pay for goods and services without a bank acting as a clearinghouse for all these transactions.

This doesn't just open t...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: New Year brings new hope after bulls lose traction to close 2015

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Chart via Finviz

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last year, the S&P 500 large caps closed 2015 essentially flat on a total return basis, while the NASDAQ 100 showed a little better performance at +8.3% and the Russell 2000 small caps fell -5.9%. Overall, stocks disappointed even in the face of modest expectations, especially the small caps as market leadership was mostly limited to a handful of large and mega-cap darlings.

Notably, the full year chart for the S&P 500 looks very much like 2011. It got off to a good start, drifted sideways for...



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Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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