Posts Tagged ‘China’s real estate bubble’

Stephen Roach says China’s Housing Boom is Not a Bubble; I say “Nonsense”

Stephen Roach says China’s Housing Boom is Not a Bubble; I say "Nonsense"

Courtesy of Mish 

Stephen Roach does not seem to understand what a bubble is. He makes the same arguments in dismissing China’s property bubble that we heard in the US, regarding "solid demand".

Please consider China’s Housing Market Isn’t Overheating, Roach Says

The property boom in China isn’t a bubble because it’s supported by “solid” demand for residential housing, according to Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd.

While portions of the real-estate market such as high-end apartments are overheating, demand for residential homes will remain robust as rural Chinese migrate to bigger cities, Roach said in a radio interview from Hong Kong with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance.

“This is just a sliver of the property boom,” Roach said, citing that each year since 2000, between 15 and 20 million people migrate to Beijing, Shanghai, and second- and third-tier cities in mainland China. That’s two and a half New York Cities created annually, he said. “This underpins a huge demand for residential property. This property has not overheated and the demand for this property is very, very solid.”

The nation’s property prices rose 12.4 percent in May from a year earlier, the second-fastest pace on record. China’s banking regulator said today it sees growing credit risks in the nation’s real-estate industry and warned of increasing pressure from non-performing loans.

China’s lawmakers have raised down payment requirements and mortgage rates and restricted loans for multiple-home buyers as they seek to dampen record property price gains. The government’s “decisive” actions in April are working to cool the sections of the housing market that were overheating, according to Roach.

“By all accounts, it looks like the measures are working for now,” he said.

Demand Irrelevant

Flashback 2000: There was enormous demand for internet stocks, pushing up the price and creating a bubble.

Flashback 2005: There was enormous demand for Florida condos. People were camping out overnight and entering lotteries for the right to buy condos.

2010: There is massive demand in Australia and Canada for housing. However that demand is finally showing signs of weakening.

Certainly there is a larger population in China and somehow Roach thinks that proves there is no bubble. It doesn’t.

What Constitutes a Bubble?

In the case of internet stocks, it’s when speculative demand exceeds the fundamentals. The same…
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Zero Hedge

Swedish Housing Bubble Pops As Stockholm Apartment Prices Crash Most Since June 2009

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Even though Sweden’s property bubble is not the longest running (that accolade goes to Australia at 55 years), it is probably the world’s biggest with prices up roughly 6-fold since starting its meteoric rise in 1995.

Of course, as we noted last month when the SEB's housing price indicator, which measures the difference between those who believe prices will rise and those who expect t...



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Phil's Favorites

Fascism's return and Trump's war on youth

 

Fascism’s return and Trump’s war on youth

Courtesy of Henry GirouxMcMaster University

Donald Trump’s policies represent a particular attack on American youth and children, particularly those who are disadvantaged. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Fascism is all too often relegated to the history books.

The word conjures up a period in which civilized societies treated democracy with contempt, engaged in acts of systemic violence, practised extermination and elimination, supported an “apocalyptic populism,” suppressed dissent, promoted a hyper-nationalism, displayed contempt for women, embraced militarism as an absolute ideal and in...



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Biotech

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Designer proteins that package genetic material could help deliver gene therapy

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Delivering genetic material is a key challenge in gene therapy. Invitation image created by Kstudio, CC BY

If you’ve ever bought a new iPhone, you’ve experienced good packaging.

The way the lid slowly separates from the box. The pull...



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Chart School

Rallies Slow As Semiconductor Selling Eases

Courtesy of Declan

Markets experienced early gains but gave them back by the close of business. Given the mini-rally of the past five days, some of the indices are looking vulnerable to a new round of selling.

The S&P finished with a narrow inverted hammer on low volume but at new highs. A move back to the newly accelerated channel is looking favored.
 


The Nasdaq also finished with a narrow doji but wasn't able to make new highs.  It's already close to one channel but looks more likely to reach down to th...



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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For December 13, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Lightinthebox Holding Co Ltd-ADR (NYSE: LITB) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.01 per share on revenue of $78.49 million.
Companies Reporting After The Bell
  • ABM Industries, Inc. (NYSE: ABM) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $0.49 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

Not A Bubble?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Meet The Crypto Company - up almost 20,000% since inception in September...

To a market cap of over $12.6 billion...

Grant's Interest Rate Observer drew the world's attention to this 'company' yesterday.....



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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