Posts Tagged ‘Chinese banks’

Moody’s Issues Stern Warning On China’s Pyramid Bank Recapitalization Scheme; Has CIC Entered A Funding Crisis?

Moody’s Issues Stern Warning On China’s Pyramid Bank Recapitalization Scheme; Has CIC Entered A Funding Crisis?

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Moody’s is out with a surprisingly frank appraisal of the Chinese banking system’s precarious capitalization trend, by looking at the recent RMB 54 billion capital raise in the interbank market by the domestic arm of the Chinese Sovereign Wealth fund (CIC), which was "the first part of an RMB 187.5 billion overall fund-raising program mainly to provide additional capital to the three largest state-owned banks, a policy lender, and a policy insurance company."

As Moody’s oh so correctly concludes: "Recapitalizing banks with bond proceeds from banks is credit negative because it increases the effective leverage of the banking system. The transaction’s impact on the system is limited in this case because the increased leverage is not significant, but it would be problematic if effective leverage continues to increase and China’s economic growth stalls." Moody’s stops one step short of calling this transaction what it is: using debt purchased by other banks to recapitalize deteriorating loans on the banks’ asset side: "the increases in assets and equity are artificial and without real economic substance: the increase in reported equity on banks’ balance sheets enables the banks to lend more and effectively leverages up the system. Assuming banks fully deploy the capital raised, the resulting increase in the risk-weighted assets would be RMB 187.5 billion divided by 11.5% (the minimum capital requirement)." What is also not said, but is glaringly obvious, is that the Chinese sovereign wealth fund is likely in a major need of recapitalization, courtesy of its extensive US financial sector equity holdings.

From Moody’s:

Last week, Huijin, the domestic arm of China Investment Corp (China’s sovereign wealth fund), raised RMB 54 billion in the domestic interbank market. It was the first part of an RMB 187.5 billion overall fund-raising program mainly to provide additional capital to the three largest state-owned banks, a policy lender, and a policy insurance company. 

Recapitalizing banks with bond proceeds from banks is credit negative because it increases the effective leverage of the banking system. The transaction’s impact on the system is limited in this case because the increased leverage is not significant, but it would be problematic if effective leverage continues to increase and China’s economic growth stalls. Even without an official breakdown of the bonds’


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Chinese Banks Face Default Risk on 23% of $1.1 Trillion Loans; Chinese Rating Agency Criticizes Moody’s, Fitch, S&P

Chinese Banks Face Default Risk on 23% of $1.1 Trillion Loans; Chinese Rating Agency Criticizes Moody’s, Fitch, S&P

Courtesy of Mish 

Here is an interesting pair of stories at odds with each other, the first article is about problem loans at Chinese banks, the second is about a rating agency mud fight.

Bloomberg reports Chinese Banks See Risks in 23% of $1.1 Trillion Loans

Chinese banks may struggle to recoup about 23 percent of the 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) they’ve lent to finance local government infrastructure projects, according to a person with knowledge of data collected by the nation’s regulator.

About half of all loans need to be serviced by secondary sources including guarantors because the ventures can’t generate sufficient revenue, the person said, declining to be identified because the information is confidential. The China Banking Regulatory Commission has told banks to write off non-performing project loans by the end of this year, the person said.

The nation’s five-largest banks, including Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., plan to raise as much as $53.5 billion to replenish capital after the sector extended a record $1.4 trillion in credit last year.

“In China now, it is the same as the people getting loans in Phoenix here in the U.S. three years ago,” said Vikas Pershad, chief executive officer of Chicago-based Veda Investments LLC. “People who want money get money, and then they all lose track of it.”

Local governments set up the financing vehicles to fund projects such as highways and airports due to limits on their ability to directly borrow money. The central government this year restricted borrowing on concern money isn’t being used for viable projects.

“The issue is symptomatic of the way the stimulus package was rolled out in 2008,” said Nicholas Consonery, Asia specialist at the Eurasia Group. “It is difficult for local governments to finance these projects. It is written under the Chinese constitution that local governments cannot offer their own debt.”

Chinese Rating Agency Criticizes Moody’s, Fitch, S&P

The Financial Times reports China rating agency condemns rivals

The head of China’s largest credit rating agency has slammed his western counterparts for causing the global financial crisis and said that as the world’s largest creditor nation China should have a bigger say in how governments and their debt are rated.

“The western rating agencies are politicised and highly ideological and they


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Zero Hedge

One Striking Chart Shows Why, According to MS, The Next Global Recession Begins In China

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Much has been said about China in the past year. Now, courtesy of Morgan Stanley's Chetan Ahya, here is one additional data point revealing why China will be ground zero for the next global economic slowdown.

As Ahya notes in his Sunday Start note, "several large economies in the world including but not limited to the US, euro area, China, Japan and UK are facing the 3D challenge of demographics, debt and disinflation. Among these economies, we believe that China, which currently accounts for 18% of global GDP and 27% of global manufacturing ...



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Chart School

A Wild Day: Profit Takers Take To The Streets

Courtesy of Declan.

Yellen's speech pushed markets both up and down, but probably left more minds stuck in indecision than offered a clear path forward. Markets don't like indecision, which gives bears and weak longs an opportunity to sell. There are still key support levels to break, but recent weeks of tight action could lead to an unraveling.

The S&P finished as registered distribution with new 'sell' triggers in On-Balance-Volume and Directional Indicator. The index has been stuck in a relative downward turn since July (against Small Caps). This index is offering the clearest 'sell' signal.

...

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Phil's Favorites

Wrapping Up Jackson Hole: What Did We Learn?

Courtesy of Mish.

Jackson hole did little more than make Fed Chair Janet Yellen look like a blithering fool.

Her chart of confidence levels on interest rates was just one of many silly things.

Here’s a roundup of tweets and posts that shows what I mean.

Proof Economists’ Style

Proof looks like this at #JacksonHole. No empirical evidence needed.

Proof looks like this at #JacksonHole. No empirical evidence needed linking policy to substantive economic outcomes pic.twitter.com/7uLOgc7RA9

— John P. Hussman (@hussmanjp) ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Japan Pension Giant’s Losses Imply a $53 Billion Stock Splurge (Bloomberg)

The world’s biggest pension fund has room for a Japan stock shopping spree after the value of its investments tumbled last quarter.

U.K.’s May Orders Brexit Plans Ahead of G-20, Newspapers Report (Bloomberg)

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May asked her cabinet ministers to come up with a blueprint for how their departments may be able to benefit from Britain’s exit from the European Union ahead of the Group of...



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ValueWalk

Meb Faber: The Trinity Portfolio

By Guest Post. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Trinity Portfolio by Meb Faber

Guest: Episode 15 is just Meb.

Date: 8/10/16

Run-Time: 42:53

Topics: Meb tries something new in Episode 15. In “audio book” style, he walks listeners through his latest research piece: The Trinity Portfolio. “Trinity” reflects the three pillars of this investing approach: globally-diversified assets, weightings toward value and momentum investments, and active trend-following. On one hand, Trinity is broad and sturdy, rooted in respected, wealth-building investment principles. On the other hand, it’s strategic and int...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Basic Materials attempting breakout says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Basic Materials stocks can often times give a decent snap shot of how an economy is doing from a growth or lack of perspective. Below looks at Basic Materials ETF (IYM) over the past decade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

IYM remains inside of an upward sloping mult-year rising channel (1), since 2009. It hit the bottom of this channel earlier this year and has bounce off support. Currently IYM is testing f...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 22nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust

 

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg

Excerpt:

Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

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News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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