Posts Tagged ‘Chinese’

Dollar Hegemony and the Rise of China

Michael Hudson writes a letter. 

Dollar Hegemony and the Rise of China

Courtesy of Michael Hudson 

Hudson to Premier Wen Jaibao, March 15, 2010

Dear Premier Wen Jiabao,

I write this letter to counteract some of the solutions that Western politicians are recommending for China to cope with its buildup of excess foreign-exchange reserves. Raising the renminbi’s exchange rate against the dollar will not cure the China-US payments imbalance. The dollar glut will continue, and so will the currency fluctuation among the dollar, euro and sterling, leaving no stable store of value. The cause of this instability is that each of these three currency areas has grown top-heavy with by debts in excess of the ability to pay.

What then should China should it do with its buildup of excess reserves, if not recycle its inflows into their bonds? Four possibilities have been suggested: (1) to revalue the renminbi, (2) to flood China’s economy with credit (as Japan did after the Plaza Accord of 1985), (3) to buy foreign resources and assets, and (4) to use excess dollars to buy back foreign investments in China, given US reluctance to permit Chinese investment in America’s own most promising economic sectors.

I explain below why China’s best course is to avoid accumulating further foreign exchange reserves. The most workable solution is to use its official reserves to buy back US and other foreign investments in China’s financial system and other key sectors. This policy will seem more natural as a response to an escalation of US protectionist moves to block Chinese imports or block China’s sovereign wealth funds from buying key US assets.

China’s excess reserves will impose a foreign-exchange loss (as valued in renminbi)

Every nation needs foreign currency reserves to ward off currency raids, as the Asia Crisis showed in 1997. The usual kind of raid forces currencies down. Speculators see a central bank with large foreign currency holdings, and seek to empty them out by borrowing even larger sums, selling the target currency short to drive down its price. This is the tactic that George Soros pioneered against the British pound when he broke the Bank of England.

Malaysia’s counter-tactic was not to let speculators cover their bets by buying the target currency. Its Malaysia’s success in resisting that crisis showed that currency controls prevent speculators from “cashing out” on their exchange-rate bets, blocking their attempt to…
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Ugly 2010 for China’s Stock Market

Collective effort, Ugly 2010 by Rom at Bondsquawk, with introduction by Pragcap:

We’ve often noted the fact that China’s equity market has served as a very reliable leading indicator over the last few years.  They led the way with a dramatic market crash that started in 2007 and they bottomed several months in advance of the 2009 bottom in the S&P.  We recently highlighted the bearish action in Chinese stocks while U.S. investors continued to pile into the S&P (one of three primary reasons we built short positions for the first time in 2 years prior to the recent stock collapse).  Ultimately the market faltered and China’s equity market is once again looking prescient. China is displaying classic post-bubble market action.  Our friends at Bondsquawk ask the important question that should be on everyone’s mind:

"Could the Chinese markets lead the rest of the world back down?"

[BEWARE THE BIG RED LEADING INDICATOR, The Pragmatic Capitalist]

Ugly 2010 for China’s Stock Market

Courtesy of Rom at Bondsquawk

China’s Shanghai Composite Index has led the rally in the global markets after sinking in late October 2008, almost 5 month ahead of the lows seen in the US markets. However, the rally has stalled as China’s equity markets have declined by 20.9 percent in 2010. Could the Chinese markets lead the rest of the world back down?

China’s Shanghai Composite Index 2-Year Historical Chart

The New York Times reported the following:

After a spectacular rise last year, China’s stock market has plummeted on growing concerns about Europe’s debt crisis and expectations that Beijing is about to take strong action to slow the nation’s booming economy and prevent it from overheating, analysts say.

Investors are worried that Chinese exports to Europe will slow in the coming months and that government efforts to tame this country’s economy by tightening credit will hamper a wide array of industries, including the nation’s fast-growing real estate market.

Read the Full Article>>


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Obama Selling Military Secrets To China For Debt Forgiveness?

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Obama Selling Military Secrets To China For Debt Forgiveness?

Courtesy of Zero Hedge
 
Ran across this article posted in Jumping In Pools. Not sure how credible it is, but allegedly Barack Obama will provide the blueprints for the B-2 stealth bomber to China in exchange for $50 billion in debt relief. According to author Richard Hogarty:

According to the Administration, this proposal will help the United States resolve its debt issues. They point out their belief that the B-2 bomber is "strategically obsolete", according to a source in the White House Press Office. In addition, the source claims that the Chinese would be unable to create their own functioning stealth bomber fleet for "at least eight years."

American allies Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea are very wary of the proposal. Koo Syi, a geopolitical analyst from South Korea, points out that this technology could be passed to China’s allies. This was the case when Chinese nuclear technology was transferred to Pakistan and North Korea. According to Koo, Obama has rendered US allies’ opinions as "irrelevant."

While this proposal is controversial, it is not being presented to Congress, where it could meet with stern opposition. Instead, the State Department has been informed to assisted the Defense Department with the transfer of materials.

A little skeptical here as frankly $50 billion is less than a drop in the bucket of Chinese Treasury holdings which are easily well over $1 trillion. The economic impact of this transaction would be negligible to zero. On the other hand, if this ends up being true, it is quite frightening, as it merely demonstrates, aside from all the scary geo-political considerations, just how bad of a dealmaker our President is.

In other China-related news, Reuters reporting that Tim Geithner’s soothing words from his Beijing whirlwind tour that "Chinese assets are very safe," drew loud laughter from the audience.

"Chinese assets are very safe," Geithner said in response to a question after a speech at Peking University, where he studied Chinese as a student in the 1980s.

His answer drew loud laughter from his student audience, reflecting scepticism in China about the wisdom of a developing country


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Former Chinese Central Bank Advisor Questions Geithner’s Math, Calls Federal Reserve Assets “Rubbish”

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Former Chinese Central Bank Advisor Questions Geithner’s Math, Calls Federal Reserve Assets "Rubbish"

Courtesy of Mish
 
A former Chinese central bank adviser says Global Crisis ‘Inevitable’ Unless U.S. Starts Saving.

Another global financial crisis triggered by a loss of confidence in the dollar may be inevitable unless the U.S. saves more, said Yu Yongding, a former Chinese central bank adviser.

It’s “very natural” for the world to be concerned about the U.S. government’s spending and planned record fiscal deficit, Yu said in e-mailed comments yesterday relating to a visit to Beijing by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

The Obama administration aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to “roughly” 3 percent of gross domestic product from a projected 12.9 percent this year, Geithner reaffirmed today. The treasury secretary added that China’s investments in U.S. financial assets are very safe, and that the Obama administration is committed to a strong dollar.

It may be helpful if “Geithner can show us some arithmetic,” said Yu. “We need to know how the U.S. government can achieve this objective.”

The deficit is projected to reach $1.75 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30 from last year’s $455 billion shortfall, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The U.S. needs a higher savings rate and a smaller deficit on the current account, which is the broadest measure of trade, or “another financial crisis triggered by a dollar crisis could be inevitable,” the Chinese academic said.

Referring to the Federal Reserve “as the world’s biggest junk investor,” and to Chairman Ben S. Bernanke as “helicopter Ben,” Yu said the Fed has dropped “tons of money from the sky since the subprime crisis.”

“The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve not only has expanded like mad but is also ridden with ‘rubbish’ assets,” he said

Yu Yongding is not the only one questioning Geithner’s math. How about it Tim, can we see your scribbles?

In related news Geithner tells China its dollar assets are safe. The crowd laughed…

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Monday reassured the Chinese government that its huge holdings of dollar assets are safe and reaffirmed his faith in a strong U.S. currency.

China is the biggest foreign owner of


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Zero Hedge

UK Opposition Leader Calls For "People's QE" - It's Venezuela With Tea & Cakes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute,

It is sad to see that, facing the evidence of the failure of demand-side policies and money printing, many commentators propose some of the most outdated and failed policies in modern economic history. In the UK, Mr. Jeremy Corbyn, the new leader of the Labour Party, believes that the government spends too little. With a current 44.4% of GDP public spending, saying the government...



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ValueWalk

Marc Faber: In The Age Of Cyber-Terrorism, Every Investor Must Own Gold

By HARDASSETSALLIANCE. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Take it from “Dr. Doom”: own some physical gold and keep it out of the banking system.

Dr. Marc Faber, a legendary investor and the editor/publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, is well known for his contrarian investing style.

In a recent Metal Masters interview with the Hard Assets Alliance, he noted that the...



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Phil's Favorites

Everyone Gets Arbed Eventually

 

Everyone Gets Arbed Eventually

Courtesy of 

The Wall Street Journal on the business of high frequency trading:

A costly high-tech arms race in which HFT firms relentlessly compete to shave tiny fractions of a second off data transmission times has also hurt their bottom lines.

Revenue at HFT firms from U.S. equities trading is projected to be just $850 million this year, compared to $7.2 billion in revenue from U.S. stocks trading in 2009, Tabb Group says.

Techniques pioneered by the upstart traders are now common at old-line financial firms. Goldman Sachs, for example, had 600 human traders supporting its cash eq...



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Chart School

Gold steps formation is bullish

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Making a clear judgment on price trend that's is correct is critical, after all the most common advice from the large heads on Wallstreet is to follow the trend. This means your trend tools must provide the clear and correct answer, readtheticker.com members are encouraged to consider RTT Steps as their preferred trend tool.

These chart examples should prove our point. RTT Steps is much better than moving averages, hands down!

Gold example

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Apple Inc example
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Insider Scoop

Things To Like, Things To Watch At The Gap

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related GPS 20 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session A Peek Into The Markets: U.S. Stock Futures Edge Higher Ahead Of Consumer Sentiment Repor...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Digital Currencies

Ukrainian Lawmakers Disclose $45 Million In Bitcoin Holdings

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Ukraine's crackdown on corruption continues, three lawmakers from Ukraine’s ruling party revealed this week that they own a combined $45 million in bitcoin, according to a report by RIA Novosti, a Russian foreign news service.

Their holdings came to light during mandatory financial disclosures by members of the Ukrainian parliament, part of an IMF-approved strategy to tamp down corruption in Ukraine. The country's democratic institutions, which were never very robust to begin with, have been further destabilized by...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 14th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead - now's the time to work out the ethics

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead – now's the time to work out the ethics

Courtesy of Jessica BergCase Western Reserve University

There’s still a way to go from editing single-cell embryos to a full-term ‘designer baby.’ ZEISS Microscopy, CC BY-SA

The announcement by researchers in Portland, Oregon that they’ve successfully modified the genetic m...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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