Posts Tagged ‘consumer durable goods’

Asset Inflation/Deflation: The Fed’s QE2 vs. $15 Trillion in Losses

Asset Inflation/Deflation: The Fed’s QE2 vs. $15 Trillion in Losses

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds

Given that the economy faces $15 trillion in writedowns in collateral and credit, the Fed’s $2 trillion dollars in new credit/liquidity is insufficient to trigger either inflation or another speculative bubble.

"Don’t fight the Fed" is supposed to be a strong argument for being bullish on the U.S. economy and stocks. We all know the Federal Reserve is about to unleash a torrent of money into the financial markets via its QE2 (quantitative easing) campaign of buying Treasury bonds directly and pulling various other monetary levers to open the liquidity gates.

But before we succumb to the excitement that accompanies the unleashing of the Fed’s supernatural powers, perhaps we should look at some numbers first.

Size of U.S. economy: $14 trillion. Probable size of QE2: $1 trillion. That means QE2 is perhaps 7% of GDP. Even a whopping $2 trillion QE would equal about 14% of GDP.

In contrast, by some measures China opened the floodgates of credit to the tune of fully 35% of their GDP to combat the contraction caused by the global financial meltdown in late 2008: China’s Creative Accounting.

How much collateral and credit will be destroyed as the U.S. economy rolls over into recession/depression in 2011-14? Based on the latest (September 17, 2010) Fed Flow of Funds, here is my back-of-the-envelope estimates of losses yet to be booked in assets (collateral) and credit (debt):

1. Residential real estate: current value, $18.8 trillion. Estimated value in 2014: $13.8 trillion, i.e. a decline of $5 trillion or 26%. If all impaired mortgages are written down or sold for fair market value, I am guessing the full $5 trillion will need to be written off by somebody, somewhere.

My 26% estimate is conservative; according to the Case-Shiller Index chart, a decline of 40% would be required to return the index to the year-2000 level.

2. Commercial real estate (CRE): The Flow of Funds only reports "nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business" so the CRE number of $6.5 trillion is a few trillion light (that is, we need to add in CRE owned by financial corporations). I am estimating writedowns of $3 trillion--a number others have also guesstimated.

Empty malls, empty office parks, empty warehouses, empty retail: they’re all worth essentially zero. The cost of bulldozing them is higher than their auction value.…
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Zero Hedge

Debate Post-Mortem: Rematch Required As Commentators Split On Debate Winner, Markets Give Hillary Nod

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

From "big, fat, ugly bubbles" to "trumped-up trickle-down" economics, tonight's debate had something for everyone. One-liners and soundbites were dropped like confetti with strange facial gestures, delicate coughs, and direct jabs flying left, right, and center. As far as the results go, it's anyone's guess: Lester Holt was soundly beaten by everyone online; the markets (S&P Futs and the Mexican Peso) both suggested a Trump loss, Trump won Twitter, online (and unscientific) polls were undecided with a slight nod to a Trump victory, as commentators wer...



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ValueWalk

Donald Trump Vs Hillary Clinton - LIVE COVERAGE OF FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Donald Trump Vs Hillary Clinton are beginning their first presidential debate at 9PM EST on Monday September 26th 2016 – as we promised earlier we will have live coverage of the event of the fight of the century as Pepe the frog and Goldman Sachs fight to the death (JK – unless Clinton finds out that Trump has dirt on her and Breibarts him). We will bring you the latest substantive policies issues which will surely be discussed. the latest memos, drinking games, buzzwords and more. Before we start according to FCC rules I am required to state that I am a paid lobbyist for the Hillary Clinton Election PAC and I get $10,000 – JK – full disclosure I am not rooting for either candidate.

Donald Trump Vs Hill...

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Phil's Favorites

Draghi Increases Risk of Global Trade Collapse With Brexit Tough Talk

Courtesy of Mish.

The ECB has enough on its hands already: Collapsing Italian banks, a Deutsche Bank derivatives mess, massive Target2 imbalances, and the rise of eurosceptics like Beppe Grillo in Italy and Marine le Pen in France.

Nonetheless, ECB president Mario Draghi decided there was room on his plate for yet another problem: trade politics.


Please consider Draghi Urges EU to Take Tough Line with UK in Brexit Talks.

Mario Draghi has become the latest European official to push for the EU to take a tough line in negotiations with the UK over Brexit, saying Britain should be re...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Contagion Risks Rise as China Banks Fund Each Others’ Loans (Bloomberg)

China’s smaller banks have never been more reliant on each other for funding, prompting rating companies to warn of contagion risks in any crisis.

Profit Slump for S&P 500 Heads for a Sixth Straight Quarter (The Wall Street Journal)

The third quarter was supposed to be when earnings growth returned to U.S. companies. Not anymore.

...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Leading indicator testing key breakout level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The German Stock Market has been a quality leader in both directions the past few years. Below looks at why one might want to keep a “close eye” on this key global stock index, to see if it can hop over a important breakout level.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Similar to the S&P 500 and many stock indices in the states, the DAX index remains inside of a uniform rising 6-year channel, since the 2009 lows.

Th...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 25, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

It was all about the Federal Reserve as we noted it would be.  In last week’s recap we said:

From this perch there has been and continues to be zero expectation for a September rate hike as the Fed doesn’t want to be seen as “political” and trying to move the market ahead of November, but the Fed is at least trying to throw some bones out there to make the market a bit less complacent.

…and:

All eyes on the Federal Reserve with a meeting Tue/Wed and a press conference by Yellen Wednesday.   Since we expect nothing to happen Wednesday in terms of raising rates maybe the market will be in “relief” mode.  Unless there is strong language from Yellen hinting at a December rate hike....



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Mapping The Market

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

Via Jean-Luc:

"When you let the free market take over, the little people get screwed and bankers get rich. Chile tried privatizing retirement plans and surprise, surprise, fund manager ate the profits… Pretty sure the results would be the same here..."  ~ Jean-Luc

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

By KEVIN DRUM, Mother Jones

Among free-market fans, Chile's privatized pension plan has long been held up as a model for us to follow. The problem, as the Financial Times notes today, is ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Promotions

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

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