Guest View
User: Pass: | become a member
Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry, October 9, 2009

SACRED COW VIII STRIKES BACK

Okay, we’re never moving anywhere again? Well, never say never must be operative I suppose. So the movers are gone and the world’s most traveled and theoretically expensive household goods are here. So, sitting amid a sea of boxes I’ll be cutting this commentary short today. I mean, there’s some work to do. Let’s just look at the highlights from a few selective markets.

Last week we were honored with wonderful emails telling us how bright we were in getting out of many positions. This week, not a peep! That goes to ETF Digest Sacred Cow VIII (again): “At any given time, the market can make anyone look like an idiot—always.” And that’s the way of it this week.

Bulls would have nothing to do with selling and volume was extraordinarily light. Perhaps this was due to Monday’s non-holiday holiday. (Are there more bureaucrats and bankers trading nowadays? There seems to be more of the former in numbers anyway.) Breadth was positive.

Reall all here. >>

 

 


Tags: ,




Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s MARKET COMMENT

September 16, 2009

 

Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
‘Relax,’ said the night man, ‘We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave’.

Hotel California
The Eagles

Since we sold some stuff two days ago it’s natural we want to find the place we were before. But, as I read somewhere else today maybe this is the Hotel California Economy and stock market. Let’s just say bulls put the pedal to it today squeezing any shorts and prepping for quad-witching beginning tomorrow and ending Friday. Things can get weird around this period and volume increases. Generally, it’s a good time to stay away but not so far this week for bulls.

Volume increased today and breadth was positive but not spectacularly so.

Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>

 

 
 

 

 


Tags: , , ,




Dave’s Daily

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trial subscription to our PSW Report!

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, Sept. 4, 2009

DIP BUYERS PLAY IT AGAIN

If you’re in this business long enough (35 years for the Fryguy), just when you think you’ve seen everything, they play another game on you. This week it was down and dirty early only to yield to some squaring up at week’s end. Squaring up? I use those terms loosely since yesterday’s end of day jam-job was beyond suspicious. Let’s just say those buying the last 15 minutes yesterday had a (cough) hunch what was coming today.

If you think the employment data was good, or had some “kernels of hope” as one headline read, then bully and welcome to the new math and spin 2009 edition. You’d think with this cynical attitude I’d be disappointed, but how can we be when we’re long?

Volume was pathetically low but it’s the Friday before a long weekend so this is expected. Breadth was as positive as you’d expect.  

More Dave’s Daily here. >> 

 

 

 


Tags: ,




Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 12, 2009

What did I miss from yesterday? Down a hundred, up a hundred—that’s about it.

Were there really any surprises from the Fed today? Okay, they’re going to stop buying bonds and I could say “me too!” But, that said, this was an inevitable event. So, bears would argue we’re just trolling along the bottom economically and while earnings and economic data have been uniformly “better than expected” much lowered estimates. Looking ahead things aren’t great since there really aren’t any new jobs, aside from government, being created.

Bulls need some new stimulus themselves to take the rally to another level. I don’t see this yet.

Volume was good today but as you can see by the 5 minute chart in SPY routinely posted below most of it came a little before and then after the Fed announcement. The action was two-way in nature although breadth was positive but not a 90/10 day by any means. 

 

 

 

Entire Market Comment here.


Tags: ,




Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest on August 3, 2009

For more, click here >>.

in front of the train

Let’s see, should you subvert your emotions and logic by staying systematic and disciplined? Well, that’s not me standing on the tracks. I’m just sayin’

So, the "green shoots" and "better than expected" theme is winning out. That’s it, so stay off the tracks.

Now volume remains light and others, including this write-up from TheStreet.com has a different take on volume advising not to worry about it. I remain open to other views but for now this light volume is downright scary. No question about it today breadth was positive. 

 

To continue reading, click here >>.

 


Tags: , ,




Dave’s Daily

Click here for a FREE, 90-day trail subscription to our PSW Report!  

Market Comment

Courtesy of Dave Fry, July 23, 2009

Bull stampede, bull market, bulls, new highs

“Better than expected” once again. Like I said yesterday with bears apparently washed-out, volume light, HAL 9000s dominant and short-term debt instruments producing negative real yields, it doesn’t take much (even fantasy numbers will do) in the way of economic data or earnings reports to put bulls in stampede mode. This is just the way of it. Today it was housing data that was only marginally better than expected. But, hey, anything like this is the shot to put the herd on the run.

Read Dave’s full article here >>

 

 

 


Tags: , ,




Dave’s Daily Market Comment

Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 16, 2009 

Mega Bear Noriel Roubini tosses in the towel saying the recession will end this year according to the Perma Bulls at CNBC. Not so fast says Roubini:

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.”

 

 

…If you’ve read this blog and others (particularly Tyler Durden’s, Zero Hedge Blog) you’re aware of the embarrassing news that a Goldman Sachs employee stole their HAL 9000 high frequency trading program. Why should we care? Because the combination of these trading programs and government liquidity injections are how these companies report huge trading profits.

But what’s important is the effect of these trading systems on market behavior and action. This well-written in post by Joe Saluzzi also in Zero Hedge explains the situation. The most important aspect of it to me is the negative effect these programs have on basic trend-following systems no matter their individuality. Technically based systems need to be modified to deal with these new phenomena. One way is to join them day-trading and the other is to lengthen your views to allow for greater volatility period. 

To see all Dave’s market comment, go here >>

 


Tags: ,




Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 13, 2009

Meredith Whitney

Meredith Whitney, one of Wall Street’s new rock stars, has seen the light and in a “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” moment put a buy rating on Goldman Sachs saying, it’s a buy in a bear market. Who can blame her? The company runs the US economy and so many confirming and negative articles are now appearing. The latest came from Rolling Stone and it’s hard to argue with the objective analysis and conclusion unless you’re just a shill for Da Boyz. Does anyone care or notice? It’s not popular to be a Cassandra on Wall Street.

As I wrote subscribers over the weekend, the bullish bias is ever present. Investment managers and trading desks are looking for reasons to buy at all times. You get light volume in the summer and it doesn’t take much to stampede the herd.

That said, markets exploded higher after her buy recommendation causing a short squeeze relieving recent short-term oversold conditions. Volume was July-light while breadth was overwhelmingly positive.

The McClellan Summation Index didn’t bat an eye today and continues its descent.

­­­­­­­­

­­­­


continue reading


Tags: ,




Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 9, 2009

harpotypes

I’ll make this brief today as there are appointments to keep. Tomorrow marks the end of the week and there will be more to say then.

The highlights today were weakness in the dollar and feeble bounce in gold currently more attached to oil; Alcoa’s failure to hold last night’s gains; news that Goldman Sachs will exceed its record 2007 earnings; a comeback of sorts for banks and materials stocks; and more second round stimulus trial balloons aloft.

Volume was ultra light but breadth improved enough to move stocks from their short-term oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the trusty McClellan Oscillator continues to fall reinforcing the notion that the top is in for stocks.

This is all we have time for today. It seems clear that investors are now lost between fears of a resumption of the bear market downtrend and hopes for green shoots. Earnings should prove inspiring to one side or the other.

I’ll be back with a more detailed report tomorrow.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD and USL.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 


Tags: ,




Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 8, 2009

We had a lot more volume than we’ve seen recently. Short-term equity markets are much oversold while commodity markets continue to get hammered big time. The entire day can be summed up with just those two sentences.

But now we have earnings upon us and Alcoa is kicking things off with unremarkable results. Since they always have unique items in their earnings it’s often hard to judge their reports.

Below is the volume and breadth data with the former impressive while the latter continues its deterioration.

In the meantime it appears with hindsight that the falling McClellan Summation Index was tell predicting this downturn.

Markets are short-term oversold and could bounce at any time. Based on the McClellan Summation Index however, any rally could prove temporary. Now earnings are coming and Alcoa, despite losing around $5 million per day just to stay open, beat estimates. Bulls have bid the stock higher in after hours trading.
This behavior is what we’ve been witnessing for a long time—lower estimates to Armageddon levels and then beat. It becomes annoying after a while.

Nevertheless earnings are important and we’ve only just begun to see them roll out. Results can alter trends in a major way but today wasn’t pretty despite the late pop from those in the know.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, DBC, USL, GLD, EWA, EFA, EWJ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
 


Tags: ,




 
 
 

Insider Scoop

Benzinga Market Primer: Wednesday, May 15

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Futures Lower on Weak European Growth Data

U.S. equity futures traded lower in early pre-market trade following a weaker than expected GDP report from the eurozone for the first quarter. GDP growth rose to -0.2 percent on a quarterly basis from -0.6 percent but missed forecasts of a 0.1 percent contraction. Weakness was notably seen in Germany, France, and Italy in the report, with the annualized rate of growth for Germany dropping to -1.4 percent vs. 0.2 percent growth forecast.

Top News

In other news around the markets:

  • The U.K. had fewer people claim unemployment benefits in April than expected, a positive sign for the labor market as the ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Zero Hedge

Guest Post: The Coming Collapse Of The Petrodollar System

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Authored by Andrew McKillop,

PETRODOLLAR WAR

The theory of Petrodollar Warfare can be attributed to US analyst and author William R Clarke, and his 2005 book of that title which interpreted the US-UK decision to invade Iraq in 2003. He called this an "oil currency war", but the concept of the petrodollar system and petrodollar recyling dates back to the eve of the first Oil Shock in 1973-1974. The role of the petrodollar system as a driving force of US foreign policy is explained by analysts and historians as basic to maintaining the dollar's status as the world's dominant reserve currency - and the currency in which oil is priced.

The term "petrodollar warfare" as used by ...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Bernard Baruch’s 10 Rules of Investing

Bernard Baruch’s 10 Rules of Investing

Courtesy of 

You want someone to emulate?

Bernard Baruch (August 19, 1870 – June 20, 1965) was the son of a South Carolina physician whose family moved to New York City when he was eleven year old. By his mid-twenties, he is able to buy an $18,000 seat on the exchange with his winnings and commissions from being a broker. By age 30, he is a millionaire and is known all over The Street as "The Lone Wolf".

In his two-volume 1957 memoirs, My Own Story, Baruch left us with the following timeless rules for playing the game:

“Being so skeptical about the usefulness of advice, I have been reluctant to lay down any &lsq...



more from Ilene

Sabrient

What the Market Wants: No Easy Answer

Courtesy of David Brown, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

So, what did the market want today?  Nothing it appears.  It traded on weak volume and had very little movement.  This morning the market hated commodities especially silver, but by days end, the market liked silver, gold and even oil but not the dollar.  Why?

Last week the economic reports were tough, with bad misses on more than one occasion.  But the market tended to ignore the bad news, probably because money continues to pour into equities from money market funds, long term fixed income, and many struggling foreign economies.  On Thursday, investors finally caved to even more bad news from Initial Jobless Claims and weak Housing Starts.  Then on Friday, when Michigan Sentiment and Leading Indicators posted large positive surprises, the money came pouring back to generate qui...



more from Sabrient

Chart School

Weekly Gasoline Update: Regular Is Up 7 Cents, Premium 4 cents

Courtesy of Doug Short.

It's time again for my weekly gasoline update based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Rounded to the penny, the average for Regular increased seven cents and Premium four cents. This is the third week of price gains after nine weeks of declines, which followed eleven weeks of price rises. Since their interim high in late February, Regular is down 11 cents and Premium 16 cents.

According to GasBuddy.com, eight states are averaging above $4.00 per gallon, up from four last week. Six states are in the 3.90-4.00 range, up from two last week.

In March Business Insider ...



more from Chart School

Option Review

ING US Call Buyers Look For Shares To Extend Post-IPO Rally

 

Today’s tickers: VOYA, GRPN & SIGM

VOYA - ING US, Inc. – Shares in ING Group’s U.S. retirement, investment and insurance business are up as much as 8.0% today to $26.98, the highest level since the company’s May 2nd IPO. ING US was rated new ‘buy’ at BTIG LLC with a 12-month target share price of $31.00 today. The stock has rallied nearly 40% over the IPO price of $19.50, and some options traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to extend gains during the second half of the year. November expiry options are the most ac...



more from Caitlin

Market Montage

Status Quo Redux…

Submitted by Mark Hanna

Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.

Again, not much to add to this market in terms of analysis – nothing matters other than central banks.  Last Wednesday/Thursday there were some 9 economic reports, 7 of which were disappointing or could be considered as such and all it got was one rare day down, and then new highs Friday.  Markets are up 10 of the past 12 sessions and 17 of 21.   Friday's move to 1666 was an exact 1000 point rally from March 2009's 666 bottom.  Since this most recent leg of the move has been medium fast rather than a huge spike ala 1999, things are not necessarily overbought on the daily chart but we are seeing extremely rare action on the ...



more from Mark

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 20th, 2013

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

...

more from OpTrader

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

NEW: Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's the latest Stock World Weekly! Just sign in with your PSW user name and password, or sign up to try it out. 

...

more from SWW

IRA Strategy/Income Trader

The IRA portfolio

Reminder: Craigzooka is available to chat with Members regarding his virtual portfolio performance, comments are found below each post.

By Craigzooka

I am going to share with you how I manage my IRA and the power of reducing your cost basis.  My goal each year is a 20% return in my IRA.  Sometimes I make it and sometimes I don't, but I believe that all of my success is due to reducing my cost basis.  To illustrate the power of reducing your cost basis here are some trades we did last year.  These trades are taken from an educational portfolio we ran in a paper-trading account for a little more than a year.

  • We bought RIG on 5/15/2012 for $44.13, sold it on 1/18/2013 for $46 but booked a profit of $1,154.
  • We bought MT on 1/4/2012 for $19.24, sold it on 12/21/2012 for $15 but booked a profit of $454.
  • We bought CHK on 1/27/2012 for $21.93, sold it on 10/19/2012 for $18 b...


more from Strategies

ETF Selector

Stock Market Gets Big News After Friday’s Close

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Stock market posts another record setting week, but the big news came after Friday’s close.

Courtesy of NASA

The stock market put on another record setting show with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) closing at a record high 15,118 and the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) closing at 1633.70, another all time closing high.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA:DIA) gained 1%, the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) climbed 1.2%, the Nasdaq Composite (NYSEARCA:...



more from John

Pharmboy

Give Them an Inch, They Will Take a Mile

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well, well, well....it is good to know that there are others in the scientific arena who believed that YMI Bioscience's data (cough - Gilead) is a better drug than Incyte's Jakafi.  Now, the definitive data are still unknown, but there was enough evidence from a Phase 2 trial to take a small risk for a huge reward.  So, let's forget about Apple (AAPL), and do nothing but biotechs from now until Congress passes universal health care coverage for prescriptions....and drive the prices down so that research and development is no longer feasible to conduct in the US. Even Seattle Genetics (SGEN) has been on a tear as of late...



more from Pharmboy




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Favorites Site >>