Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’

Dave’s Daily


Courtesy of Dave Fry, October 9, 2009


Okay, we’re never moving anywhere again? Well, never say never must be operative I suppose. So the movers are gone and the world’s most traveled and theoretically expensive household goods are here. So, sitting amid a sea of boxes I’ll be cutting this commentary short today. I mean, there’s some work to do. Let’s just look at the highlights from a few selective markets.

Last week we were honored with wonderful emails telling us how bright we were in getting out of many positions. This week, not a peep! That goes to ETF Digest Sacred Cow VIII (again): “At any given time, the market can make anyone look like an idiot—always.” And that’s the way of it this week.

Bulls would have nothing to do with selling and volume was extraordinarily light. Perhaps this was due to Monday’s non-holiday holiday. (Are there more bureaucrats and bankers trading nowadays? There seems to be more of the former in numbers anyway.) Breadth was positive.

Reall all here. >>



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Dave’s Daily


September 16, 2009


Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
‘Relax,’ said the night man, ‘We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave’.

Hotel California
The Eagles

Since we sold some stuff two days ago it’s natural we want to find the place we were before. But, as I read somewhere else today maybe this is the Hotel California Economy and stock market. Let’s just say bulls put the pedal to it today squeezing any shorts and prepping for quad-witching beginning tomorrow and ending Friday. Things can get weird around this period and volume increases. Generally, it’s a good time to stay away but not so far this week for bulls.

Volume increased today and breadth was positive but not spectacularly so.

Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>





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Dave’s Daily

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Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, Sept. 4, 2009


If you’re in this business long enough (35 years for the Fryguy), just when you think you’ve seen everything, they play another game on you. This week it was down and dirty early only to yield to some squaring up at week’s end. Squaring up? I use those terms loosely since yesterday’s end of day jam-job was beyond suspicious. Let’s just say those buying the last 15 minutes yesterday had a (cough) hunch what was coming today.

If you think the employment data was good, or had some “kernels of hope” as one headline read, then bully and welcome to the new math and spin 2009 edition. You’d think with this cynical attitude I’d be disappointed, but how can we be when we’re long?

Volume was pathetically low but it’s the Friday before a long weekend so this is expected. Breadth was as positive as you’d expect.  

More Dave’s Daily here. >> 




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Dave’s Daily


Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 12, 2009

What did I miss from yesterday? Down a hundred, up a hundred—that’s about it.

Were there really any surprises from the Fed today? Okay, they’re going to stop buying bonds and I could say “me too!” But, that said, this was an inevitable event. So, bears would argue we’re just trolling along the bottom economically and while earnings and economic data have been uniformly “better than expected” much lowered estimates. Looking ahead things aren’t great since there really aren’t any new jobs, aside from government, being created.

Bulls need some new stimulus themselves to take the rally to another level. I don’t see this yet.

Volume was good today but as you can see by the 5 minute chart in SPY routinely posted below most of it came a little before and then after the Fed announcement. The action was two-way in nature although breadth was positive but not a 90/10 day by any means. 




Entire Market Comment here.

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Dave’s Daily


Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest on August 3, 2009

For more, click here >>.

in front of the train

Let’s see, should you subvert your emotions and logic by staying systematic and disciplined? Well, that’s not me standing on the tracks. I’m just sayin’

So, the "green shoots" and "better than expected" theme is winning out. That’s it, so stay off the tracks.

Now volume remains light and others, including this write-up from has a different take on volume advising not to worry about it. I remain open to other views but for now this light volume is downright scary. No question about it today breadth was positive. 


To continue reading, click here >>.


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Dave’s Daily

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Market Comment

Courtesy of Dave Fry, July 23, 2009

Bull stampede, bull market, bulls, new highs

“Better than expected” once again. Like I said yesterday with bears apparently washed-out, volume light, HAL 9000s dominant and short-term debt instruments producing negative real yields, it doesn’t take much (even fantasy numbers will do) in the way of economic data or earnings reports to put bulls in stampede mode. This is just the way of it. Today it was housing data that was only marginally better than expected. But, hey, anything like this is the shot to put the herd on the run.

Read Dave’s full article here >>




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Dave’s Daily Market Comment

Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 16, 2009 

Mega Bear Noriel Roubini tosses in the towel saying the recession will end this year according to the Perma Bulls at CNBC. Not so fast says Roubini:

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.”



…If you’ve read this blog and others (particularly Tyler Durden’s, Zero Hedge Blog) you’re aware of the embarrassing news that a Goldman Sachs employee stole their HAL 9000 high frequency trading program. Why should we care? Because the combination of these trading programs and government liquidity injections are how these companies report huge trading profits.

But what’s important is the effect of these trading systems on market behavior and action. This well-written in post by Joe Saluzzi also in Zero Hedge explains the situation. The most important aspect of it to me is the negative effect these programs have on basic trend-following systems no matter their individuality. Technically based systems need to be modified to deal with these new phenomena. One way is to join them day-trading and the other is to lengthen your views to allow for greater volatility period. 

To see all Dave’s market comment, go here >>


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Dave’s Daily


Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 13, 2009

Meredith Whitney

Meredith Whitney, one of Wall Street’s new rock stars, has seen the light and in a “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” moment put a buy rating on Goldman Sachs saying, it’s a buy in a bear market. Who can blame her? The company runs the US economy and so many confirming and negative articles are now appearing. The latest came from Rolling Stone and it’s hard to argue with the objective analysis and conclusion unless you’re just a shill for Da Boyz. Does anyone care or notice? It’s not popular to be a Cassandra on Wall Street.

As I wrote subscribers over the weekend, the bullish bias is ever present. Investment managers and trading desks are looking for reasons to buy at all times. You get light volume in the summer and it doesn’t take much to stampede the herd.

That said, markets exploded higher after her buy recommendation causing a short squeeze relieving recent short-term oversold conditions. Volume was July-light while breadth was overwhelmingly positive.

The McClellan Summation Index didn’t bat an eye today and continues its descent.



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Dave’s Daily


Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 9, 2009


I’ll make this brief today as there are appointments to keep. Tomorrow marks the end of the week and there will be more to say then.

The highlights today were weakness in the dollar and feeble bounce in gold currently more attached to oil; Alcoa’s failure to hold last night’s gains; news that Goldman Sachs will exceed its record 2007 earnings; a comeback of sorts for banks and materials stocks; and more second round stimulus trial balloons aloft.

Volume was ultra light but breadth improved enough to move stocks from their short-term oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the trusty McClellan Oscillator continues to fall reinforcing the notion that the top is in for stocks.

This is all we have time for today. It seems clear that investors are now lost between fears of a resumption of the bear market downtrend and hopes for green shoots. Earnings should prove inspiring to one side or the other.

I’ll be back with a more detailed report tomorrow.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD and USL.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at


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Dave’s Daily


Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 8, 2009

We had a lot more volume than we’ve seen recently. Short-term equity markets are much oversold while commodity markets continue to get hammered big time. The entire day can be summed up with just those two sentences.

But now we have earnings upon us and Alcoa is kicking things off with unremarkable results. Since they always have unique items in their earnings it’s often hard to judge their reports.

Below is the volume and breadth data with the former impressive while the latter continues its deterioration.

In the meantime it appears with hindsight that the falling McClellan Summation Index was tell predicting this downturn.

Markets are short-term oversold and could bounce at any time. Based on the McClellan Summation Index however, any rally could prove temporary. Now earnings are coming and Alcoa, despite losing around $5 million per day just to stay open, beat estimates. Bulls have bid the stock higher in after hours trading.
This behavior is what we’ve been witnessing for a long time—lower estimates to Armageddon levels and then beat. It becomes annoying after a while.

Nevertheless earnings are important and we’ve only just begun to see them roll out. Results can alter trends in a major way but today wasn’t pretty despite the late pop from those in the know.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, DBC, USL, GLD, EWA, EFA, EWJ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at

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Phil's Favorites

The Biggest Risk of a Clinton Presidency


The Biggest Risk of a Clinton Presidency

Courtesy of Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism

Hillary Clinton will be a one term President. The reason I say this is because I suspect that her economic plan will not be very stimulative and I think that four more years of weak economic growth will be intolerable. And the main driver of my thinking here is deeply rooted in Bill Clinton’s presidency.

Back in the late 90’s the US government ran a brief budget surplus. It was heralded as an act of “fiscal responsibility” at the time. Of course, when the economy tanked immediately following the surplus the government was driven back in the red as tax receipts cratered and automatic spending jumped.


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Zero Hedge

Chinese Politician Given Suspended Death Sentence After 200 Million Yuan In Cash Was Found In His Apartment

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

When corrupt Chinese oligarchs and politicians are unable to transfer millions in illegally obtained funds offshore they resort to the next best option: storing the money in the form of cold, hard cash stashed away inside their apartments. However, this is a rather risky proposition as one of them found out when investigators, along with a live-rolling media crew, showed up at his apartment where he had managed to conceal over 200 million yuan in cash.

As Sha...

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Global Asset Management 3Q16 - Cash is a Capital Allocation Strategy

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Global Asset Management commentary for the quarter ended September 30, 2016.

Also see


Dear Friends,

Year-to-date we’v...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

The Brexit economy: falling pound and rising inflation fuel fears of slowdown (The Guardian)

The British economy’s post-Brexit vote bounce is losing momentum as the weak pound and higher inflation herald a squeeze in living standards, according to a Guardian analysis.

S&P 500 Skew Unwind Shows Complacency Over Clinton Win: Analysis (Bloomberg)


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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 24th,2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks- This is putting a smile on this sector

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Historically, when strong bull markets have taken place, Banks go along for the ride. Since the summer of 2014, banks have under performed the broad market by around 12%, as the S&P is just a couple of percent from all-time highs. Are banks about to act healthier and put a smile on this sector, which could help the S&P breakout above the 2,150 level?

Below looks at the Bank Index (BKX)



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Oct 23, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

A sleepy week indeed as almost all the “action” came out of a gap up Tuesday morning and a gap down Friday morning (which was met with buyers).  Outside of those events, the indexes stuck closely to unchanged most of the week.  Earnings began in earnest but outside of some individual high profile stories it was a lot of beating lowered expectations.

“Despite a couple of good reports, we’re in the midst of another earnings season that is hardly painting a bright picture,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. “Having another quarter where profits contract is not an underpinning for stocks to advance, and the market is searching for, if not demanding, a catalyst to move higher. At the moment, one is lackin...

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Members' Corner

The Orlando Massacre Part 3

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

A continuation of a Naybob of IT's Natterings from Part 1 and Part 2...

While many Christian churches expressed grief and offered free funeral services for the victims of the Orlando shooting, the fundamentalist Westboro Baptist Church held an anti-gay protest during the funeral of the victims.

But the Westboro Baptist Church's protest rally was blocked by about 200 people who formed a human barricade on the main street in downtown Orlando, ...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.


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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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PSW is more than just stock talk!


We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more! features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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