Dave’s Daily
by Chart School - October 10th, 2009 4:21 am
MARKET COMMENT
Courtesy of Dave Fry, October 9, 2009
SACRED COW VIII STRIKES BACK
Okay, we’re never moving anywhere again? Well, never say never must be operative I suppose. So the movers are gone and the world’s most traveled and theoretically expensive household goods are here. So, sitting amid a sea of boxes I’ll be cutting this commentary short today. I mean, there’s some work to do. Let’s just look at the highlights from a few selective markets.
Last week we were honored with wonderful emails telling us how bright we were in getting out of many positions. This week, not a peep! That goes to ETF Digest Sacred Cow VIII (again): “At any given time, the market can make anyone look like an idiot—always.” And that’s the way of it this week.
Bulls would have nothing to do with selling and volume was extraordinarily light. Perhaps this was due to Monday’s non-holiday holiday. (Are there more bureaucrats and bankers trading nowadays? There seems to be more of the former in numbers anyway.) Breadth was positive.
Reall all here. >>
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by Chart School - September 16th, 2009 11:35 pm
Dave Fry’s MARKET COMMENT
September 16, 2009
Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
‘Relax,’ said the night man, ‘We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave’.
Hotel California
The Eagles
Since we sold some stuff two days ago it’s natural we want to find the place we were before. But, as I read somewhere else today maybe this is the Hotel California Economy and stock market. Let’s just say bulls put the pedal to it today squeezing any shorts and prepping for quad-witching beginning tomorrow and ending Friday. Things can get weird around this period and volume increases. Generally, it’s a good time to stay away but not so far this week for bulls.
Volume increased today and breadth was positive but not spectacularly so.
Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>
Dave’s Daily
by Chart School - September 5th, 2009 1:21 am
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MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, Sept. 4, 2009
DIP BUYERS PLAY IT AGAIN
If you’re in this business long enough (35 years for the Fryguy), just when you think you’ve seen everything, they play another game on you. This week it was down and dirty early only to yield to some squaring up at week’s end. Squaring up? I use those terms loosely since yesterday’s end of day jam-job was beyond suspicious. Let’s just say those buying the last 15 minutes yesterday had a (cough) hunch what was coming today.
If you think the employment data was good, or had some “kernels of hope” as one headline read, then bully and welcome to the new math and spin 2009 edition. You’d think with this cynical attitude I’d be disappointed, but how can we be when we’re long?
Volume was pathetically low but it’s the Friday before a long weekend so this is expected. Breadth was as positive as you’d expect.
Dave’s Daily
by Chart School - August 12th, 2009 8:41 pm
MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 12, 2009
What did I miss from yesterday? Down a hundred, up a hundred—that’s about it.
Were there really any surprises from the Fed today? Okay, they’re going to stop buying bonds and I could say “me too!” But, that said, this was an inevitable event. So, bears would argue we’re just trolling along the bottom economically and while earnings and economic data have been uniformly “better than expected” much lowered estimates. Looking ahead things aren’t great since there really aren’t any new jobs, aside from government, being created.
Bulls need some new stimulus themselves to take the rally to another level. I don’t see this yet.
Volume was good today but as you can see by the 5 minute chart in SPY routinely posted below most of it came a little before and then after the Fed announcement. The action was two-way in nature although breadth was positive but not a 90/10 day by any means.
Entire Market Comment here.
Dave’s Daily
by Chart School - August 3rd, 2009 8:19 pm
MARKET COMMENT
Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest on August 3, 2009
For more, click here >>.
Let’s see, should you subvert your emotions and logic by staying systematic and disciplined? Well, that’s not me standing on the tracks. I’m just sayin’
So, the "green shoots" and "better than expected" theme is winning out. That’s it, so stay off the tracks.
Now volume remains light and others, including this write-up from TheStreet.com has a different take on volume advising not to worry about it. I remain open to other views but for now this light volume is downright scary. No question about it today breadth was positive.
To continue reading, click here >>.
Dave’s Daily
by Chart School - July 23rd, 2009 8:09 pm
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Market Comment
Courtesy of Dave Fry, July 23, 2009
“Better than expected” once again. Like I said yesterday with bears apparently washed-out, volume light, HAL 9000s dominant and short-term debt instruments producing negative real yields, it doesn’t take much (even fantasy numbers will do) in the way of economic data or earnings reports to put bulls in stampede mode. This is just the way of it. Today it was housing data that was only marginally better than expected. But, hey, anything like this is the shot to put the herd on the run.
Read Dave’s full article here >>
Dave’s Daily Market Comment
by Chart School - July 16th, 2009 9:34 pm
Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 16, 2009
Mega Bear Noriel Roubini tosses in the towel saying the recession will end this year according to the Perma Bulls at CNBC. Not so fast says Roubini:
“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.”
…If you’ve read this blog and others (particularly Tyler Durden’s, Zero Hedge Blog) you’re aware of the embarrassing news that a Goldman Sachs employee stole their HAL 9000 high frequency trading program. Why should we care? Because the combination of these trading programs and government liquidity injections are how these companies report huge trading profits.
But what’s important is the effect of these trading systems on market behavior and action. This well-written in post by Joe Saluzzi also in Zero Hedge explains the situation. The most important aspect of it to me is the negative effect these programs have on basic trend-following systems no matter their individuality. Technically based systems need to be modified to deal with these new phenomena. One way is to join them day-trading and the other is to lengthen your views to allow for greater volatility period.
To see all Dave’s market comment, go here >>
Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - July 13th, 2009 7:17 pm
MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 13, 2009
Meredith Whitney, one of Wall Street’s new rock stars, has seen the light and in a “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” moment put a buy rating on Goldman Sachs saying, it’s a buy in a bear market. Who can blame her? The company runs the US economy and so many confirming and negative articles are now appearing. The latest came from Rolling Stone and it’s hard to argue with the objective analysis and conclusion unless you’re just a shill for Da Boyz. Does anyone care or notice? It’s not popular to be a Cassandra on Wall Street.
As I wrote subscribers over the weekend, the bullish bias is ever present. Investment managers and trading desks are looking for reasons to buy at all times. You get light volume in the summer and it doesn’t take much to stampede the herd.
That said, markets exploded higher after her buy recommendation causing a short squeeze relieving recent short-term oversold conditions. Volume was July-light while breadth was overwhelmingly positive.
The McClellan Summation Index didn’t bat an eye today and continues its descent.
…
Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - July 9th, 2009 6:36 pm
MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 9, 2009
I’ll make this brief today as there are appointments to keep. Tomorrow marks the end of the week and there will be more to say then.
The highlights today were weakness in the dollar and feeble bounce in gold currently more attached to oil; Alcoa’s failure to hold last night’s gains; news that Goldman Sachs will exceed its record 2007 earnings; a comeback of sorts for banks and materials stocks; and more second round stimulus trial balloons aloft.
Volume was ultra light but breadth improved enough to move stocks from their short-term oversold conditions.
Meanwhile, the trusty McClellan Oscillator continues to fall reinforcing the notion that the top is in for stocks.
This is all we have time for today. It seems clear that investors are now lost between fears of a resumption of the bear market downtrend and hopes for green shoots. Earnings should prove inspiring to one side or the other.
I’ll be back with a more detailed report tomorrow.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD and USL.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
Dave’s Daily
by David Fry - July 9th, 2009 2:56 am
MARKET COMMENT
Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 8, 2009
We had a lot more volume than we’ve seen recently. Short-term equity markets are much oversold while commodity markets continue to get hammered big time. The entire day can be summed up with just those two sentences.
But now we have earnings upon us and Alcoa is kicking things off with unremarkable results. Since they always have unique items in their earnings it’s often hard to judge their reports.
Below is the volume and breadth data with the former impressive while the latter continues its deterioration.
In the meantime it appears with hindsight that the falling McClellan Summation Index was tell predicting this downturn.
Markets are short-term oversold and could bounce at any time. Based on the McClellan Summation Index however, any rally could prove temporary. Now earnings are coming and Alcoa, despite losing around $5 million per day just to stay open, beat estimates. Bulls have bid the stock higher in after hours trading.
This behavior is what we’ve been witnessing for a long time—lower estimates to Armageddon levels and then beat. It becomes annoying after a while.
Nevertheless earnings are important and we’ve only just begun to see them roll out. Results can alter trends in a major way but today wasn’t pretty despite the late pop from those in the know.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, DBC, USL, GLD, EWA, EFA, EWJ and FXI.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
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