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Posts Tagged ‘Dave Fry’

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry, October 9, 2009

SACRED COW VIII STRIKES BACK

Okay, we’re never moving anywhere again? Well, never say never must be operative I suppose. So the movers are gone and the world’s most traveled and theoretically expensive household goods are here. So, sitting amid a sea of boxes I’ll be cutting this commentary short today. I mean, there’s some work to do. Let’s just look at the highlights from a few selective markets.

Last week we were honored with wonderful emails telling us how bright we were in getting out of many positions. This week, not a peep! That goes to ETF Digest Sacred Cow VIII (again): “At any given time, the market can make anyone look like an idiot—always.” And that’s the way of it this week.

Bulls would have nothing to do with selling and volume was extraordinarily light. Perhaps this was due to Monday’s non-holiday holiday. (Are there more bureaucrats and bankers trading nowadays? There seems to be more of the former in numbers anyway.) Breadth was positive.

Reall all here. >>

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s MARKET COMMENT

September 16, 2009

 

Last thing I remember I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
‘Relax,’ said the night man, ‘We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like but you can never leave’.

Hotel California
The Eagles

Since we sold some stuff two days ago it’s natural we want to find the place we were before. But, as I read somewhere else today maybe this is the Hotel California Economy and stock market. Let’s just say bulls put the pedal to it today squeezing any shorts and prepping for quad-witching beginning tomorrow and ending Friday. Things can get weird around this period and volume increases. Generally, it’s a good time to stay away but not so far this week for bulls.

Volume increased today and breadth was positive but not spectacularly so.

Read all of Dave’s Market Comment here. >>

 

 
 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

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MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, Sept. 4, 2009

DIP BUYERS PLAY IT AGAIN

If you’re in this business long enough (35 years for the Fryguy), just when you think you’ve seen everything, they play another game on you. This week it was down and dirty early only to yield to some squaring up at week’s end. Squaring up? I use those terms loosely since yesterday’s end of day jam-job was beyond suspicious. Let’s just say those buying the last 15 minutes yesterday had a (cough) hunch what was coming today.

If you think the employment data was good, or had some “kernels of hope” as one headline read, then bully and welcome to the new math and spin 2009 edition. You’d think with this cynical attitude I’d be disappointed, but how can we be when we’re long?

Volume was pathetically low but it’s the Friday before a long weekend so this is expected. Breadth was as positive as you’d expect.  

More Dave’s Daily here. >> 

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, August 12, 2009

What did I miss from yesterday? Down a hundred, up a hundred—that’s about it.

Were there really any surprises from the Fed today? Okay, they’re going to stop buying bonds and I could say “me too!” But, that said, this was an inevitable event. So, bears would argue we’re just trolling along the bottom economically and while earnings and economic data have been uniformly “better than expected” much lowered estimates. Looking ahead things aren’t great since there really aren’t any new jobs, aside from government, being created.

Bulls need some new stimulus themselves to take the rally to another level. I don’t see this yet.

Volume was good today but as you can see by the 5 minute chart in SPY routinely posted below most of it came a little before and then after the Fed announcement. The action was two-way in nature although breadth was positive but not a 90/10 day by any means. 

 

 

 

Entire Market Comment here.


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest on August 3, 2009

For more, click here >>.

in front of the train

Let’s see, should you subvert your emotions and logic by staying systematic and disciplined? Well, that’s not me standing on the tracks. I’m just sayin’

So, the "green shoots" and "better than expected" theme is winning out. That’s it, so stay off the tracks.

Now volume remains light and others, including this write-up from TheStreet.com has a different take on volume advising not to worry about it. I remain open to other views but for now this light volume is downright scary. No question about it today breadth was positive. 

 

To continue reading, click here >>.

 


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Dave’s Daily

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Market Comment

Courtesy of Dave Fry, July 23, 2009

Bull stampede, bull market, bulls, new highs

“Better than expected” once again. Like I said yesterday with bears apparently washed-out, volume light, HAL 9000s dominant and short-term debt instruments producing negative real yields, it doesn’t take much (even fantasy numbers will do) in the way of economic data or earnings reports to put bulls in stampede mode. This is just the way of it. Today it was housing data that was only marginally better than expected. But, hey, anything like this is the shot to put the herd on the run.

Read Dave’s full article here >>

 

 

 


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Dave’s Daily Market Comment

Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 16, 2009 

Mega Bear Noriel Roubini tosses in the towel saying the recession will end this year according to the Perma Bulls at CNBC. Not so fast says Roubini:

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.”

 

 

…If you’ve read this blog and others (particularly Tyler Durden’s, Zero Hedge Blog) you’re aware of the embarrassing news that a Goldman Sachs employee stole their HAL 9000 high frequency trading program. Why should we care? Because the combination of these trading programs and government liquidity injections are how these companies report huge trading profits.

But what’s important is the effect of these trading systems on market behavior and action. This well-written in post by Joe Saluzzi also in Zero Hedge explains the situation. The most important aspect of it to me is the negative effect these programs have on basic trend-following systems no matter their individuality. Technically based systems need to be modified to deal with these new phenomena. One way is to join them day-trading and the other is to lengthen your views to allow for greater volatility period. 

To see all Dave’s market comment, go here >>

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 13, 2009

Meredith Whitney

Meredith Whitney, one of Wall Street’s new rock stars, has seen the light and in a “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” moment put a buy rating on Goldman Sachs saying, it’s a buy in a bear market. Who can blame her? The company runs the US economy and so many confirming and negative articles are now appearing. The latest came from Rolling Stone and it’s hard to argue with the objective analysis and conclusion unless you’re just a shill for Da Boyz. Does anyone care or notice? It’s not popular to be a Cassandra on Wall Street.

As I wrote subscribers over the weekend, the bullish bias is ever present. Investment managers and trading desks are looking for reasons to buy at all times. You get light volume in the summer and it doesn’t take much to stampede the herd.

That said, markets exploded higher after her buy recommendation causing a short squeeze relieving recent short-term oversold conditions. Volume was July-light while breadth was overwhelmingly positive.

The McClellan Summation Index didn’t bat an eye today and continues its descent.

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 9, 2009

harpotypes

I’ll make this brief today as there are appointments to keep. Tomorrow marks the end of the week and there will be more to say then.

The highlights today were weakness in the dollar and feeble bounce in gold currently more attached to oil; Alcoa’s failure to hold last night’s gains; news that Goldman Sachs will exceed its record 2007 earnings; a comeback of sorts for banks and materials stocks; and more second round stimulus trial balloons aloft.

Volume was ultra light but breadth improved enough to move stocks from their short-term oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the trusty McClellan Oscillator continues to fall reinforcing the notion that the top is in for stocks.

This is all we have time for today. It seems clear that investors are now lost between fears of a resumption of the bear market downtrend and hopes for green shoots. Earnings should prove inspiring to one side or the other.

I’ll be back with a more detailed report tomorrow.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD and USL.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 8, 2009

We had a lot more volume than we’ve seen recently. Short-term equity markets are much oversold while commodity markets continue to get hammered big time. The entire day can be summed up with just those two sentences.

But now we have earnings upon us and Alcoa is kicking things off with unremarkable results. Since they always have unique items in their earnings it’s often hard to judge their reports.

Below is the volume and breadth data with the former impressive while the latter continues its deterioration.

In the meantime it appears with hindsight that the falling McClellan Summation Index was tell predicting this downturn.

Markets are short-term oversold and could bounce at any time. Based on the McClellan Summation Index however, any rally could prove temporary. Now earnings are coming and Alcoa, despite losing around $5 million per day just to stay open, beat estimates. Bulls have bid the stock higher in after hours trading.
This behavior is what we’ve been witnessing for a long time—lower estimates to Armageddon levels and then beat. It becomes annoying after a while.

Nevertheless earnings are important and we’ve only just begun to see them roll out. Results can alter trends in a major way but today wasn’t pretty despite the late pop from those in the know.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, DBC, USL, GLD, EWA, EFA, EWJ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
 


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Zero Hedge

Someone Is Lying

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Yesterday, moments before the North Korea "hacking" tragicomedy escalated into full retard mode with Sony pulling The Interview, or a movie that absent the attention would certainly be a flop, Wired released an article titled: "North Korea Almost Certainly Did Not Hack Sony" (title subsequently changed to the one below as can be seen in the URL alias "http://www.wired.com/2014/12/north-korea-did-not-hack-sony-probs"), which howev...



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Phil's Favorites

The Russian Enigma Unravels

Courtesy of Marc to Market

  Winston Churchill famously said of Russian foreign policy that it was "...a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma."  What people leave out is what followed.  Churchill offered an answer:  "... perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."   And so it is.   Like most crises, the crisis Russia is experiencing is over-determined, in the sense there ar...

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Insider Scoop

Evercore ISI Initiates Marriott International With Hold

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related MAR Citigroup Sees Marriott International Benefiting From U.S. Growth, Hikes Price Target Benzinga's Top Downgrades Making Money With Charles Payne: 11/13/14 (Fox Business)

Analysts at Evercore ISI initiated coverage on Marriott International, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAR) with a Hold rating.

The target price for Ma...



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Chart School

Relief Bounce in Markets

Courtesy of Declan.

Those who took advantage of markets at Fib levels were rewarded.  However, this looked more a 'dead cat' style bounce than a genuine bottom forming low.  This can of course change, and one thing I will want to see is narrow action near today's high. Volume was a little light, but with Christmas fast approaching I would expect this trend to continue.

The S&P inched above 2,009, but I would like to see any subsequent weakness hold the 38.2% Fib level at 1,989.


The Nasdaq offered itself more as a support bounce, with a picture perfect play off its 38.2% Fib level. Unlike the S&P, volume did climb in confirmed accumulation. The next upside c...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

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To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Digital Currencies

Chart o' the Day: Don't "Invest" in Stupid Sh*t

Joshua commented on the QZ article I posted a couple days ago and perfectly summarized the take-home message into an Investing Lesson. 

Chart o’ the Day: Don’t “Invest” in Stupid Sh*t

Courtesy of 

The chart above comes from Matt Phillips at Quartz and is a good reminder of why you shouldn’t invest in s...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of December 15th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Energy sector rains on bulls' parade, but skies may clear soon

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Scott Martindale of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Stocks have needed a reason to take a breather and pull back in this long-standing ultra-bullish climate, with strong economic data and seasonality providing impressive tailwinds -- and plummeting oil prices certainly have given it to them. But this minor pullback was fully expected and indeed desirable for market health. The future remains bright for the U.S. economy and corporate profits despite the collapse in oil, and now the overbought technical condition has been relieved. While most sectors are gathering fundamental support and our sector rotation model remains bullish, the Energy sector looks fundamentally weak and continues to ran...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here's this week's Stock World Weekly.

Click here and sign in with your user name and password. 

 

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Option Review

SPX Call Spread Eyes Fresh Record Highs By Year End

Stocks got off to a rocky start on the first trading day in December, with the S&P 500 Index slipping just below 2050 on Monday. Based on one large bullish SPX options trade executed on Wednesday, however, such price action is not likely to break the trend of strong gains observed in the benchmark index since mid-October. It looks like one options market participant purchased 25,000 of the 31Dec’14 2105/2115 call spreads at a net premium of $2.70 each. The trade cost $6.75mm to put on, and represents the maximum potential loss on the position should the 2105 calls expire worthless at the end of December. The call spread could reap profits of as much as $7.30 per spread, or $18.25mm, in the event that the SPX ends the year above 2115. The index would need to rally 2.0% over the current level...



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Market Shadows

Official Moves in the Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio

By Ilene 

I officially bought 250 shares of EZCH at $18.76 and sold 300 shares of IGT at $17.09 in Market Shadows' Virtual Portfolio yesterday (Fri. 11-21).

Click here for Thursday's post where I was thinking about buying EZCH. After further reading, I decided to add it to the virtual portfolio and to sell IGT and several other stocks, which we'll be saying goodbye to next week.

Notes

1. th...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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