Author Archive for David Fry

Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 13, 2009

Meredith Whitney

Meredith Whitney, one of Wall Street’s new rock stars, has seen the light and in a “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” moment put a buy rating on Goldman Sachs saying, it’s a buy in a bear market. Who can blame her? The company runs the US economy and so many confirming and negative articles are now appearing. The latest came from Rolling Stone and it’s hard to argue with the objective analysis and conclusion unless you’re just a shill for Da Boyz. Does anyone care or notice? It’s not popular to be a Cassandra on Wall Street.

As I wrote subscribers over the weekend, the bullish bias is ever present. Investment managers and trading desks are looking for reasons to buy at all times. You get light volume in the summer and it doesn’t take much to stampede the herd.

That said, markets exploded higher after her buy recommendation causing a short squeeze relieving recent short-term oversold conditions. Volume was July-light while breadth was overwhelmingly positive.

The McClellan Summation Index didn’t bat an eye today and continues its descent.

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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 10, 2009

Investors need a fill-up no matter if they’re bulls or bears. So all we can do is get them earnings and economic data to push things one way or another. Today’s crummy Consumer Confidence data didn’t faze bulls too much or impress bears particularly. With volume summertime light it will be easy for trading desks to have their way with unsuspecting tourists. So be careful out there.

As stated, volume is light and breadth continues to breakdown at least on the NYSE versus the NASDAQ which continues to perform better.

Most July’s recently haven’t been kind to markets. Virtually all were followed by good performance in August. It’s a strange occurrence to note frankly. But that’s been the theme and this July is starting rough and down that same path.

Investors are looking for good news from both earnings and economic data. Thus far they haven’t gotten it and markets have reacted accordingly. Absent these, it will be a challenge to hold things together until the fall.

Via our friend Jesse from Jesse’s Café Americain is this article quite critical of China’s near future regarding inflation and civil unrest. You might find it an eye opener.

I guess we put up enough charts to make up for yesterday.

Have a great weekend.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, BWX, LQD, GLD, DBC, USL, DBB, EFA, EEM, EWA and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 





Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 9, 2009

harpotypes

I’ll make this brief today as there are appointments to keep. Tomorrow marks the end of the week and there will be more to say then.

The highlights today were weakness in the dollar and feeble bounce in gold currently more attached to oil; Alcoa’s failure to hold last night’s gains; news that Goldman Sachs will exceed its record 2007 earnings; a comeback of sorts for banks and materials stocks; and more second round stimulus trial balloons aloft.

Volume was ultra light but breadth improved enough to move stocks from their short-term oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the trusty McClellan Oscillator continues to fall reinforcing the notion that the top is in for stocks.

This is all we have time for today. It seems clear that investors are now lost between fears of a resumption of the bear market downtrend and hopes for green shoots. Earnings should prove inspiring to one side or the other.

I’ll be back with a more detailed report tomorrow.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: GLD and USL.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 8, 2009

We had a lot more volume than we’ve seen recently. Short-term equity markets are much oversold while commodity markets continue to get hammered big time. The entire day can be summed up with just those two sentences.

But now we have earnings upon us and Alcoa is kicking things off with unremarkable results. Since they always have unique items in their earnings it’s often hard to judge their reports.

Below is the volume and breadth data with the former impressive while the latter continues its deterioration.

In the meantime it appears with hindsight that the falling McClellan Summation Index was tell predicting this downturn.

Markets are short-term oversold and could bounce at any time. Based on the McClellan Summation Index however, any rally could prove temporary. Now earnings are coming and Alcoa, despite losing around $5 million per day just to stay open, beat estimates. Bulls have bid the stock higher in after hours trading.
This behavior is what we’ve been witnessing for a long time—lower estimates to Armageddon levels and then beat. It becomes annoying after a while.

Nevertheless earnings are important and we’ve only just begun to see them roll out. Results can alter trends in a major way but today wasn’t pretty despite the late pop from those in the know.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, DBC, USL, GLD, EWA, EFA, EWJ and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave’s ETF Digest, July 7, 2009

Hal, Goldman Sachs, program trading, code

I guess HAL has been deactivated and GS has lost this little memory unit. If you see it lying around, well hell, they’ll buy it from you no doubt. Or, worse, you might get thrown in the slammer since nobody, but nobody messes with the Da Boyz.

The green shoots have turned to pond scum as investors, currently sans HAL, don’t up from down. Volume is heavier on sell-offs while light on bullish days. In the meantime breadth data remains terrible.

The McClellan Summation Index continues to fall from high levels indicating the bull trend is over for awhile probably.


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Courtesy of Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 6, 2009

A lot is being written, at least in the blogosphere about the high frequency trading program pilfered from Goldman Sachs. (The first article is here and you can follow many more at other sites.)

The questions being asked are pointed and terrific. For example, is the recent downturn in volume because Goldman’s computers were shut down for fear they were compromised?

Of greater importance to average investors is a dirty truth is revealed. Give Wall Street banksters a gaming stake (TARP) and what do they do with it? They give it to their HAL 9000 to trade the hell out of markets. Would you like a free trading stake and the computer to do it? Even though it would be self-defeating in the end, of course you would.

Okay, enough about that although it should provide plenty of interesting reading. Today markets were wishy-washy on continued shrinking volume. That brought out the “stick save” crew (perhaps HAL activated) but market internals remain weak.

AMG Data, like Trim Tabs, keeps track of money flow to mutual funds and ETFs. You can see recent deterioration below (subscription required for more detailed information).

The McClellan Summation Index continues to show markets rolling over.

You can’t make this stuff up sometimes. Da Boyz on Wall Street own the markets and always have, but it’s never been this over-the-top and outrageous. It’s enough to shine light on this nonsense and see it for what it is—blatant market manipulation with taxpayer money. You won’t see much in the way of investigations because the powers that be are in the hood.

Now let’s move to earnings. July will feature a steady stream to please (spun as “better than expected”) and disappoint (just ignore those please).

The week’s young and so is the month. Let’s see how it plays out.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, RWX, BWX, WIP, DBC, USL, DBB, EWA, and FXI
 





Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 3, 2009


Emerging Markets from Russell Fry on Vimeo.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in:

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com. 
 


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, July 2, 2009

 

Maybe, maybe not—this is all I can say since bulls have repeatedly demonstrated their “energizer bunny” quality. Maybe over the weekend investors will forget about the sting of today’s drop as no doubt the powers that be will roll-out their spokesmen to cheer everyone up.

This action is why over roughly the past two months our cash balances have been high. Once we got the weekly DeMark sequential 9 counts we were expecting a reaction. Sometimes we just move in a herky-jerky manner sideways while in other circumstances we get an immediate impact. If the trends are very strong then the DeMark 9 can be blown away and that’s the tricky part—how to get back in. But, never mind that for now, let’s look again.

Volume has been higher on down days and you can assuredly know that breadth both sucked and blowed today.

The longer-term Summation Index (not updated with today’s data) no doubt restarted its recently paused rollover.


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Dave’s Daily

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 25, 2009

Okay, sometimes it’s good to miss a couple of days. Everything and nothing has happened. Yesterday it was the amazingly boring and meandering Fed statement that had a little something for everybody. (How many “buts” can you stuff in this thing?) The bullish headline writers wrote many over the top gems claiming the recession is over per nuggets they gleaned.

Okay but not much happened really.

Today all the bad employment data was ignored with bulls focused on a few odd things. Bed Bath and Beyond “beat estimates” (folks need new towels and stuff. Or, was it the heavy expense cutting?) and economic growth, while still in the toilet hadn’t been plunged yet so to speak. Finally, some headline writers dubbed Bernanke a “rock star” as bulls hoped he would be reappointed.

Is that a good thing?

Impressively, volume picked up today as markets were short-term oversold and shorts remain easily squeezed. Breadth was quite positive. The hedgies and trading desks just continue to pick each other’s pockets as the games continue. And, after all, we are approaching the end of the month and bonuses need serious protection.

The McClellan Summation Index continues its decline. Now some have asked for the dates to be placed on the chart. That would entail adding another confusing chart to the mix and explaining it. Suffice it to say this is a “daily” chart and covers a year.


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Dave’s Daily

MARKET COMMENT

Dave Fry’s ETF Digest, June 22, 2009

Goldman Sachs

The story is front and center: GS is reported (later denied) able to pay huge bonuses to employees this year. (Guardian story is here.) How can this happen especially now? TARP money to trade with thanks to US taxpayers. Warren Buffett and Senator Dick Durbin knew exactly what was going to take place when they invested with the in-crowd. They, and other insiders, got the vig and you got the tab. End of story. It’s as simple as that isn’t it?

Today was a rough day to put it mildly as markets tumbled hard on reports from the World Bank that growth (also known as “green shoots”) will be er, “worse than expected”. This news crushed previously healthy commodity and stock market rallies.

Volume picked up and breadth was awful.

Perhaps “the tell” was the rollover in the Summation Index as demonstrated in the chart below. It can rise to 1200-1400 and stay there for longer than you can imagine before it rolls over. Then a top is often the result. “Sell in May and go away?”


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Zero Hedge

$1 Billion Worth Of Cocaine Seized At Philadelphia Port

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Several thousand traders on Wall Street may be extra jittery tomorrow when the FOMC announcement hits at 2:00pm. The reason: shipping containers full of illegal drugs - mostly blow - were found and seized at a Philadelphia port in what authorities described as the largest seizure in the region's history. Back in March we reported by what at a time seemed like a giant haul when a ton and a half of cocaine seized at the port of New York and New Kersey, in what was describe...



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Phil's Favorites

With cryptocurrency launch, Facebook sets its path toward becoming an independent nation

 

With cryptocurrency launch, Facebook sets its path toward becoming an independent nation

The world’s newest country? railway fx/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Jennifer Grygiel, Syracuse University

Facebook has announced a plan to launch a new cryptocurrency named the Libra, adding another layer to its efforts to dominate global communications and business. Backed by hug...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Consumer Staple and Yields about to send key message to stocks?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could the Staples sector and the yield on the 10-year note be on the verge of sending an important message to the stock and bond markets? It sure looks that way.

Staples ETF (XLP) is currently attempting to break above the January 2018 highs at (1). If it does, it would be a breakout of the trading range that has been in play for the past 18-months, as it looks to have created a double bottom last year.

The yield on the 10-year note (TNX)  has declined nearly 35%, since pea...



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Insider Scoop

30 Stocks Moving In Tuesday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Moneygram International Inc (NASDAQ: MGI) rose 128.3% to $3.31 in pre-market trading after the company reported a strategic partnership with Ripple. Blockchain payments firm Ripple has made an investment in MoneyGram and will also allow the group to use its XRP cryptocurrency as part of the cross-border payments process. Ripple made an initial investment of $30 million in the money transfer company, made up of common stock and a warrant to purchase common stock. Ripple purchased newly-issued common stock including the shares underlying the warrant from MoneyGram at $4.10 per share.
  • Blue Apron Holdings, Inc....


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Biotech

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Consumer genetic testing customers stretch their DNA data further with third-party interpretation websites

If you’ve got the raw data, why not mine it for more info? Sergey Nivens/Shutterstock.com

Courtesy of Sarah Catherine Nelson, University of Washington

Back in 2016, Helen (a pseudonym) took three different direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic tests: AncestryDNA, 23andMe and FamilyTreeDNA. She saw genetic testing as a way...



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Chart School

Silver Review

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

The folks in the federal reserve will debase the US dollar currency to an extreme degree silver will finally lift off the floor.. 

Note: Readers should re watch the silver back screen news video, here.

The following video looks at price action and Wyckoff logic.

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Digital Currencies

Cryptos Are Crashing As Asia Opens, Bitcoin Back Below $8k

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Having survived the day's bloodbath in US tech stocks, cryptos are crashing in the early Asian session, apparently playing catch-down to the day's de-risking.

While no catalyst is immediately evident, there are some reports noting 13 large global banks are preparing to launch digital versions of major global currencies next year, though we suspect this drop was more algorithmic that fundamental-driven.

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ValueWalk

More Examples Of "Typical Tesla "wise-guy scamminess"

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Stanphyl Capital’s letter to investors for the month of March 2019.

rawpixel / Pixabay

Friends and Fellow Investors:

For March 2019 the fund was up approximately 5.5% net of all fees and expenses. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 was up approximately 1.9% while the Russell 2000 was down approximately 2.1%. Year-to-date 2019 the fund is up approximately 12.8% while the S&P 500 is up approximately 13.6% and the ...



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Members' Corner

Despacito - How to Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way - SLOWLY!

Are you ready to retire?  

For most people, the purpose of investing is to build up enough wealth to allow you to retire.  In general, that's usually enough money to reliably generate a year's worth of your average income, each year into your retirement so that that, plus you Social Security, should be enough to pay your bills without having to draw down on your principle.

Unfortunately, as the last decade has shown us, we can't count on bonds to pay us more than 3% and the average return from the stock market over the past 20 years has been erratic - to say the least - with 4 negative years (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008) and 14 positives, though mostly in the 10% range on the positives.  A string of losses like we had from 2000-02 could easily wipe out a decades worth of gains.

Still, the stock market has been better over the last 10 (7%) an...



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Mapping The Market

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

A good start from :

It's Not Capitalism, it's Crony Capitalism

Excerpt:

The threat to America is this: we have abandoned our core philosophy. Our first principle of this nation as a meritocracy, a free-market economy, where competition drives economic decision-making. In its place, we have allowed a malignancy to fester, a virulent pus-filled bastardized form of economics so corrosive in nature, so dangerously pestilent, that it presents an extinction-level threat to America – both the actual nation and the “idea” of America.

This all-encompassing mutant corruption saps men’s souls, crushes opportunities, and destroys economic mobility. Its a Smash & Grab system of ill-gotten re...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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