Bulls Position for an Energy Select Sector SPDR rally
by Option Review - March 17th, 2011 4:05 pm
Today’s tickers: XLE, MHS, GMR & DE
XLE - Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF – Signs of bullish sentiment on the XLE, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, appeared in the April contract this morning with shares in the fund rising 2.6% to $75.67 by 11:15am in New York. According to a report out from Bloomberg reporter Arie Shapira, analysts at Goldman recommended buying call options on certain energy stocks, many of which are holdings in the XLE. Like-minded traders looked to Energy SPDR options today to position for a sector rally. A couple of call spreads were purchased on the ETF earlier in the session. The use of this strategy reduces the premium required to get long the closer to-the-money strike calls as opposed to buying the contracts outright. It looks like traders picked up a total of 10,000 calls at the April $79 strike for an average premium of $0.76 each, and sold the same number of calls at the April $82 strike at an average premium of $0.205 apiece. The average net cost of initiating the bullish stance amounts to $0.555 per contract. Thus, call-spreaders stand prepared to profit should the price of the underlying fund surge 5.1% to surpass the average breakeven price of $79.555 by April expiration. Investors could walk away with maximum potential profits of $2.445 per contract if shares in the XLE jump 8.4% over the current price of $75.67 to trade above $82.00 by expiration day next month. Shares in the fund last traded above $82.00 back in July 2008.
MHS - Medco Health Solutions, Inc. – The pharmacy-benefits management company drew heavy options trading volume today with its shares declining as much as 6.3% today to touch an intraday low of…
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DiggWhich Way Wednesday – 1,333 or Bust!
by Phil - February 16th, 2011 8:38 am
1,333.
That’s the number Art Cashin is looking for on the S&P as our breakout line. I’ve been using 1,332 but Art is right as the bottom on the S&P in March, 2009 was 666.79 so, tecnically, 1,333.58 is a 100% gain on the S&P off that low, not 1,332, which was my lazy rounding off 666. “Everyone’s got this psychological area of 1,333 [on the S&P 500]—they want to prove that we can double where we were from the panic lows,” Cashin told CNBC. “So later in the week, the bulls are going to circle the wagons and take another shot at it and that will tell us whether it’s a rest and recoup or not.”
Well, that pretty much sums things up. Have a good day everybody…
We had a good day yesterday with our bullish positions really starting to fly and our $25,000 Virtual Portfolio is up to a virtual cash position of $26,240 in day 12 with a fairly even mix of winners and losers in our still too-bearish mixture. The mixture on the Nasdaq yesterday was also bearish and you wouldn’t know it from their down 5-points finish (0.17%), but declining volume yesterday was 1.35Bn vs. just 637M of advance.
Fortunately (by some amazing coincidence that could not possibly have anything to do with IBanks masking their selling by pumping the top of the Nas while selling the rest), this 2:1 bearishness in volume did not scare off the after-hours crowd, who immediately popped the Nasdaq futures from 2,382 to 2,391, right back to Monday’s highs as if 2 days of selling never happened.
The Dow is just as excited with 80 points worth of gains since 3:30 yesterday and the S&P is, of course, right up on their 100% line, as are the Transports (see Dave Fry’s chart), which we’ll be watching as they test the 95 mark on IYT. I had mentioned to Members in Chat yesterday that the Transports were the key to breaking the S&P over the line and we discussed FDX’s amazing action in yesterday’s post that seemed like a Gang of 12 effort to manipulate the Transports ahead of Cashin’s predicted run at 1,333 – NO MATTER WHAT!
We agreed and we were so bullish on yesterday’s dip that we even bought NFLX! Now that is bullish! Just a short-term in and out but you…
Analyst Upgrades Spur Options Traders to Action at SanDisk Corp.
by Option Review - November 24th, 2010 4:54 pm
Today’s tickers: SNDK, NTT, SNIC & DE
SNDK - SanDisk Corp. – Options on the manufacturer of data storage products are popular today after analyst upgrades sent shares of the underlying stock up as much as 6.145% to an intraday high of $45.60. An analyst at UBS upped his share price target on SanDisk to $55.00 from $50.00, while analysts at Morgan Stanley reiterated their ‘overweight’ rating on SNDK with a share price target of $49.00. Options expiring in December are the most active as of 12:55 pm in New York with shares in the name trading 5.15% higher on the day at $45.18. Notable bullish interest in out-of-the-money calls caught our eye. More than 4,200 calls changed hands at the December $46 strike, surpassing volume represented by previously existing open interest at that strike. It looks like the majority of those calls were purchased for an average premium of $1.46 per contract. Call buyers stand prepared to profit in the event that SanDisk’s shares surge 5.05% over the current price of $45.18 to surpass the average breakeven point to the upside at $47.46 by expiration day in December. Meanwhile, near-term put action was largely generated by an investor purchasing a put spread. It looks like the trader picked up roughly 2,000 puts at the December $42 strike for a premium of $0.85 a-pop, and sold about the same number of puts at the lower December $41 strike for a premium of $0.57 each. Net premium paid for the spread amounts to $0.28 per contract and positions the trader to make money if shares slip beneath the effective breakeven price of $41.72 by expiration day. Maximum available profits of $0.72 apiece pad the investor’s wallet if SNDK’s shares plunge 9.25% lower to trade below $41.00 ahead of expiration in the final month of the year.…
Ag Plays – The Beans or the Business?
by ilene - September 12th, 2010 4:03 pm
Ag Plays – The Beans or the Business?
Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker
Farmer Brown here again. One of my key longer-term themes for growth investing is and has been the Agriculture Play for a few years now. The global demographics, while seemingly moving at a glacial pace to the short-term thinkers, are simply undeniable over the intermediate to longer term.
A recent landmark piece of research from Goldman Sachs suggests that stock market capitalization in emerging countries may grow fivefold over the next 20 years to more than $80 trillion. Keep in mind that this is the same research department that nailed owning the BRIC country stocks as the Market Call of the Last Decade.
More prosperity reaching the developing world (a majority of the earth’s population) means a historic shift in the world’s diet from simple grains to meats. The first thing a Third World peasant farmer-turned-industrialist goes upscale on is his food. And once you go chicken and beef, it’s mighty hard to go back to sprouts. Unless you think that globalization and gentrification will reverse, this shift probably represents the most monumental investing opportunity of our lifetime.
The theme is becoming a well-known one, but now we’ve reached the juncture where we must ask the age old question of "What’s the trade?". If there was one takeaway from the book The Greatest Trade Ever, it’s that lots of folks saw the housing and mortgage crash coming, but only a few figured out how to express that awareness into a profitable trade.
The Ag Story is every bit as fat a pitch coming down Broadway for investors as the real estate crash was. The flash food riots that rippled around the globe briefly in early 2008 were likely a mere preamble to something much bigger, but how do we set ourselves up for it? The considerations here are getting the timing right, owning the correct vehicles, staying perspicacious in the event that the winners start breaking away from the pack early and, finally, having enough bases covered that you don’t nail the theme but miss the upside (also known as mis-expressing the trade).
Gradually, there are three schools of thought emerging on how to play the Ag Trade. I will give you a brief idea of what they are and then encourage you to do your own research, as…
Optimistic Trader Initiates Call Spread on ConocoPhillips
by Option Review - January 29th, 2010 4:29 pm
Today’s tickers: COP, EEM, DE, SIRI, JPM, FCX, T, PCS, MSFT & EK
COP – ConocoPhillips– Oil and gas company, ConocoPhillips, attracted an optimistic options player to the January 2011 contract today. Shares began the trading day on the up-and-up, but reversed direction in the latter portion of the session, falling slightly by 0.20% to $48.26. The long-term bullish strategist purchased a debit call spread to position for upside gains in the underlying share price by expiration next January. The spread involved the purchase of 5,000 calls at the January 2011 $50 strike for an average premium of $3.91 apiece, marked against the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 2011 $65 strike for about $0.60 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $3.31 per contract. The investor responsible for the trade stands ready to accrue maximum potential profits of $11.69 per contract if COP’s shares gain 35% over the current price to reach $65.00 by expiration day. Shares must rise at least 10.5% from today’s price before the call-spreader breaks even on the transaction at $53.31.
EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Shares of the MSCI Emerging Markets exchange-traded fund fell less than 1% in afternoon trading to stand at $38.47. September contract options trading suggests one investor is positioning for continued downward movement in the price of the underlying stock by expiration. The pessimistic trader established a bearish risk reversal on the fund by selling 5,300 out-of-the-money call options at the September $45 strike for a premium of $1.35 apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of put options at the September $33 strike for $1.77 each. The investor paid a net $0.42 per contract for the transaction. Profits to the downside accumulate only if shares of the EEM slump another 15.3% from the current price to breach the breakeven point at $32.58 by expiration in the next eight months. We note that the fund’s share price has remained above the $33.00-level since July 15, 2009.
DE – Deere & Co. – Shares of agricultural equipment maker, Deere & Co., are trading 1.80% higher to stand at $52.03 in the first half of the trading day. Notable options activity appeared in the January 2011 contract where one investor initiated a long-term protective play using put options. The trader established a put spread by purchasing 10,000 puts at…
ACE Call Options in Demand – Option Implied Volatility Explodes
by Option Review - December 1st, 2009 4:17 pm
Today’s tickers: ACE, EFA, HAL, AMAT, WHR, DE, JTX & WCG
ACE – ACE Limited – The surge in demand for call options on the insurance company today drove option implied volatility up 19.75% to 28.67%, while shares gained more than 2% to $49.78 during the trading day. Investors populating the December contract exhibited bullish sentiment on ACE by selling puts and buying calls. Approximately 3,000 puts were shed at the December 50 strike for an average premium of 1.51 apiece, while some 2,100 calls were purchased at the same strike for roughly 89 cents each. Call volume at the January 50 strike sky-rocketed to 21,666 contracts – on previous existing open interest of just 1,402 calls – as traders scooped up about 20,000 lots for a premium of 1.42 per contract. Investors long the January contract call options are positioned to accrue profits if ACE’s shares trade above the breakeven price of $51.42 by expiration.
EFA – iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF – The exchange-traded fund, which includes stocks from Europe, Australasia and the Far East, attracted bearish option players despite the 2.5% rise in shares today to $56.88. One investor, who may hold a long position in the underlying stock, unfurled a ratio put spread in the January 2010 contract. The trader purchased 10,000 puts at the January 55 strike for an average premium of 1.39 each, and sold 20,000 puts at the lower January 52 strike for about 70 cents apiece. The investor pockets a net credit of 1 penny per contract on the trade and establishes downside protection in case shares of the EFA decline ahead of expiration. The 1 cent credit is ‘free money’ for the trader as long as the shares remain above $55.00 through expiration in January.
HAL – Halliburton Co. – Options activity on the oil and gas company today suggests at least one investor is bracing for potential share price erosion through expiration in January. Halliburton’s shares rose 1% during the session to $29.57. The trader responsible for the bearish ratio put spread is likely holding a long position in the underlying stock. If this is the case, today’s transaction provides downside protection for the investor. It appears 5,000 puts were purchased at the January 29 strike for an average premium of 1.24 apiece, spread against the sale of 10,000 puts at the lower January 24 strike for 18 pennies each.…
Bank of America Call Options Fly Off the Shelves
by Option Review - November 24th, 2009 4:09 pm
Today’s tickers: BAC, GE, SEED, EWZ, DE, STLD, LCC, SEED & DLTR
BAC – Bank of America – Long-term Bank of America bulls are out in full force today, scooping up call options like they’re going out of style. BAC’s shares are off slightly by less than 1% to $16.19. Plain-vanilla call buying in the January 2011 contract indicates investors expect shares to surge over the next 13 months. A large chunk of 50,000 calls were picked up at the January 25 strike for an average premium of 86 cents apiece. Shares must rally 60% from the current price to breach the $25.86 breakeven point on the trade. Twice as many calls were coveted at the higher January 30 strike where 100,000 calls were purchased for 45 cents each. The investor responsible for the massive position breaks even if shares jump 88% to $30.45 by expiration. Finally, another BAC-optimist established a ratio call spread in the same contract. The investor purchased 20,000 calls at the January 20 strike for 1.95 apiece, spread against the sale of 40,000 calls at the higher January 30 strike for 46 cents premium each. The net cost of the spread amounts to 1.03 per contract and positions the trader to profit if shares exceed $21.03 by expiration in January of 2011. Maximum potential profits available on the transaction amount to 8.97 per contract. Option implied volatility on Bank of America is currently 38.65% – a scant 2.93% above the 52-week volatility low of 35.77% – attained back on October 20, 2009.
GE – General Electric – A massive bullish bet on General Electric today indicates one investor expects shares to surge 43.8% in the next 13 months. Shares are currently up just under 1% to $16.16. It looks like a staggering 131,500 calls were purchased at the January 2011 22.5 strike for a premium of 76 cents per contract. The trader is apparently expecting GE’s shares to jump at least 43.8% to the breakeven point at $23.26 by expiration in January of 2011. Option implied volatility on General Electric is down to a one-year low of 29.46%.
SEED – Origin Agritech Ltd. – Frenzied options activity continues today on Beijing-based seed producer, Origin Agritech, following yesterday’s announcement that the firm received approval from China’s Ministry of Agriculture to sell its genetically modified phytase corn. Shares are currently up 4% to $10.86, down from an intraday…
Retail Reversal Combination Grabs Attention on XRT
by Option Review - November 4th, 2009 4:11 pm
Today’s tickers: XRT, MGM, DE, GLD, UUP, NWL, HNZ, EWZ, UNH, OSTK & STEC
XRT – SPDR S&P Retail ETF – A three-legged transaction in the December contract on the retail exchange-traded fund reveals bearish sentiment by one investor. Shares of the XRT are trading nearly 1% higher today to $34.60. It looks like the trader sold call options in order to offset the cost of buying a put spread. The put spread involved the purchase of 5,000 puts at the December 33 strike for a premium of 1.07 apiece, marked against the sale off 5,000 puts at the lower December 30 strike for approximately 37 cents each. The sale of 5,000 calls at the higher December 36 strike knocked another 87 cents per contract off the total price of the bearish play. The investor more than offset the cost of buying the spread and thus receives a net credit of 17 cents per contract. The full credit is retained by the trader as long as shares of the XRT remain below $36.00 through expiration. Additional profits may accumulate if shares dip below $33.00, while maximum potential gains of 3.00 per contract require that shares trade down to $30.00.
MGM – MGM Mirage, Inc. – Shares of the casino resort operator slipped 2.5% lower to $9.40 today but one options optimist initiated a bullish play on the stock in the March 2010 contract. It appears the trader put on a ratio call spread by buying one in-the-money call option for every three out-of-the-money calls sold. The investor purchased 10,000 calls at the deep in-the-money March 7.0 strike for 3.20 apiece and simultaneously sold 30,000 calls at the higher March 12 strike for 1.05 each. The net cost of the transaction is reduced to just one nickel per contract. The investor probably does not expect shares to rally through $12.00 by expiration because he is short 20,000 calls at that strike price in the March contract. Shares of MGM last traded above $12.00 on October 14, 2009.
DE – Deere & Co. – A large bearish butterfly spread appeared in the March 2010 contract on the agricultural equipment maker. The transaction indicates one investor is positioning for significant declines in the price of DE shares by expiration. Shares are down 1% to $46.76 with just under 90 minutes remaining in the trading day. The investor purchased the upper wing of the…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(