Posts Tagged ‘Deflationary Market Collapse’

Hedge Funds Betting on a Deflationary Market Collapse

Hedge Funds Betting on a Deflationary Market Collapse

black swansCourtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

The observations herein regarding the nature of this stock market rally are quite in parallel with our own.

Buying the dollar to play the debt deflation trade may also be a good one in the short run, especially if leveraged foreign punters have to quickly raise cash to cover bad bets made in the US markets.

However we would have to add that this scenario assumes no black swans with regards to the heavy overhang of US dollars being held by overseas central banks.

If we were in such a position, we would be selling the rallies, given the huge amount dollars on the books.

Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say

By Cristina Alesci

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.

Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”

Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that government intervention is pulling the U.S. out of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March through yesterday.

The economy will expand at an annualized rate of 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June 2010, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median estimate of at least 53 forecasters in a Bloomberg survey.

Tudor, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm started by Jones in the early 1980s, told clients in an Aug. 3 letter that the stock market’s climb was a
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Zero Hedge

Silver Market Change Report 5 July, 2015

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Monetary Metals.

The prices of the metals drooped further this shortened week (Friday was a holiday in the US, as the Fourth of July, Independence Day, occurred on Saturday). The S&P 500 index also fell this week, as did crude oil.

Markets all over the world are beginning to feel shocks from Greece. As we write this, on Sunday evening Arizona time, the Greeks voted “No” to the terms of the bailouts offered them. The simple fact is that Greece cannot pay. What they cannot pay, they will not. What they don’t pay, has to be written off by whomever holds it as an asset. Some of these write-offs will obligate European governments to pay in more euros to recapitalize the now-insolvent entities. For example, countries li...



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Phil's Favorites

Shades of Roosevelt: Greece Safety Box Controls; Cash in Hand is King

Courtesy of Mish.

Back in January, I warned Greek citizens to take money out of Greek banks. I also warned not put it in safe deposit boxes. Both comments were dead-on accurate.

Greece Safety Box Controls

Please consider Greeks Cannot Tap Cash in Safe Deposit Boxes Under Capital Controls.
Greeks cannot withdraw cash left in safe deposit boxes at Greek banks as long as capital restrictions remain in place, a deputy finance minister told Greek television on Sunday.

Greece's government shut banks and imposed capital controls a week ago to prevent the country's banks from collapsing under the weight of mass withdrawals.

Deputy Finance Minister Nadia Valavani told Alpha TV that, as part of those measures, the go...



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Market News

The Big Fat Greek 'No'

The Greeks said 'NO.' 61% voted against accepting the latest bailout package offered to them by their European creditors. Here's a tour of the many thoughts about what's next for Greece.  

[Picture Source: Drudge Report Headline]

Greece Says 'NO'; Thousands Celebrate; Emergency Summit Called (Business Insider)

The landslide victory for the "No" campaign is a major surprise. Athens exploded in celebration over the result, with thousands streaming into Syntagma Square, waving Greek flags, chanting, and setting off fire...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges After Initial Forecasts Show "No" Vote Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the early bitcoin markets are an indication of what will happen once New Zealand opens for illiquid FX trade, it will be a risk off kinda day.

And that doesn't even take into account the pandemonium that will be unleashed in China in a few hours after the PBOC just went all-in to halt the crashing stock market. What if it fails to get a green close before tomorrow's US open?

Source: ...



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Insider Scoop

Russian Inflation Expected To Continue To Fall

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related RSX Russia's Gazprom Reportedly Shuts Off Gas Delivery To Ukraine ETF Investors Aren't Afraid Of Greek Default Snake Oil Stats (Seeking Alpha)

In a report published Friday, Barclays analyst Daniel Hewitt explained that the infl...



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Chart School

Chinese SSEC rally with Wyckoff Logic

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Supply and demand is the leading force within stock prices, you must know the tea leaves. Richard Wyckoff logic is the only known method of understanding supply and demand with the stock market.Readtheticker.com provides all the tools you need to be a Wyckoff master analyst.More from RTT Tv

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party ima...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Shanghai index creates historic reversal pattern like 2007

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Much of the attention around the world seems to be revolving around a small country called Greece. What about the most populated country in the world (China), any key messages coming from there of late?

Well another Month, Quarter and Half a year are in the books. With this in mind I wanted to look at Monthly action of the hottest stock market in the world, the Shanghai Index. Above looks at the Shanghai index over the past 25-years. The 100%+ rally over the past year has pushed the Shanghai index up to its 23% Fibonacci ratio and a long-term resistance line, that has been in play for 25-years at (1) above.

As the Shanghai index was hitting this...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 29th., 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls under the gun to muster troops, while bears lie in wait

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Two weeks ago, bulls seemed ready to push stocks higher as long-standing support reliably kicked in. But with just one full week to go before the Independence Day holiday week arrives, we will see if bulls can muster some reinforcements and make another run at the May highs. Small caps and NASDAQ are already there, but it is questionable whether those segments can drag along the broader market. To be sure, there is plenty of potential fuel floating around in the form of a friendly Fed and abundant global liquidity seeking the safety and strength of US stocks and bonds. While the technical picture has glimmers of strength, summer bears lie in wait.

In this weekly ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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