Posts Tagged ‘depressed economic growth’

DEFLATION AND DISCOURAGEMENT

Insightful article by Pragcap, explaining why discouragement is the devil’s favorite tool and a very insidious enemy to us. – Ilene 

DEFLATION AND DISCOURAGEMENT

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Pencil popping balloon

Most economists ignore the behavioral side of finance.  They tend to stick to their models, equations and textbooks. This is, in large part, what makes economics such a frustrating endeavor for so many people.  They tend to ignore the simple fact that there is an unquantifiable variable in the equation – human emotion.  And no matter how much we evolve and advance technologically this variable will always be the most important piece of the puzzle.

Over the last few years I have argued that much of what the government planned to do would have destructive psychological ramifications.  Unfortunately, this appears to have come true as no one truly trusts the stock market these days.  Small business sentiment shows a total lack of faith in the government.  Consumer confidence remains abysmal. This is all very disconcerting because a deflationary environment has a way of snowballing and becoming self destructive.  It can eat at a society from within as they become discouraged.  The following story nicely summarizes the damaging impact of deflation:

“Once upon a time it was announced that the devil was going out of business and would sell all his equipment to those who were willing to pay the price.

On the big day of the sale, all his tools were attractively displayed. There were Envy, Jealousy, Hatred, Malice, Deceit, Sensuality, Pride, Idolatry, and other implements of evil display. Each of the tools was marked with its own price tag.

Over in the corner by itself was a harmless looking, wedge-shaped tool very much worn, but still it bore a higher price than any of the others. Someone asked the devil what it was, and he answered, “That is Discouragement.” The next question came quickly, “And why is it priced so high even though it is plain to see that it is worn more than these others?”

Because replied the devil, “It is more useful to me than all these others. I can pry open and get into a man’s heart with that when I cannot get near him with any other tool. Once I get inside, I can use him in whatever way suits me best. It is worn well because I use


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Zero Hedge

Beijing Outraged As US Warship Sails Within 12 Miles Of Contested Island

 

Beijing Outraged As US Warship Sails Within 12 Miles Of Contested Island

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

The new year is barely three weeks old and already the US Navy’s “freedom of navigation” operations are eliciting furious threats of retaliation from the Chinese military.

Since President Donald Trump took office one year ago, the Navy and Air Force have increasingly sought to test the Chinese military response in the Pacific by sailing or flying within a certain perimeter - usually 12 miles - of one of China’s disputed territorial holdings in the South China Sea, according to ...



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ValueWalk

How to Tell If Someone's Bluffing: Body Language Lessons from a Poker Pro

By jafransp11. Originally published at ValueWalk.

When it comes to body language, it’s never an exact art. The things I’m going to suggest, they’re all guidelines. But that said there are some certain things that as a poker player I’ll look for. And the most important thing is, first of all, to get a baseline of somebody. It’s impossible to tell whether the behavior someone is showing is meaningful or not if you don’t know how they naturally behave. So the first thing I’ll do when I sit down at the table is looking at what my opponents are doing when they’re not in a hand: are they naturally quite gregarious, are they confident when they interact with the waitress, or are they naturally quite quiet and shy? How do they sit? Are they naturally closed off? Are they very languishing”—...



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Phil's Favorites

'Dreamers' could give US economy - and even American workers - a boost

 

'Dreamers' could give US economy – and even American workers – a boost

Courtesy of Amy HsinCity University of New York

Demonstrators chant slogans during an immigration rally in support of DACA. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Earlier this month, hopes were high that a bipartisan deal could be reached to resolve the fate of the “Dreamers,” the millions of undocumented youth who were brought to the U.S. as children.

Those hopes ...



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Insider Scoop

Wall Street Previews Netflix's Q4 Earnings: Rising Subscriber Numbers Drive Bullish Projections

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NFLX Needham's Laura Martin: Amazon Prime Price Increase Won't Affect Netflix, Roku Upcoming Netflix Earnings:...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

 

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson, Contrarian Edge

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and energy into businesses that have transformed the world – Amazon, eBay, Cisco, PayPal … the list is very long (though in fairness the list of non-survivors is even longer – but they are not here to remind us of their nonexistence).

R...



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Chart School

Short Covering Driving Gains in Semiconductors and Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Declan.

The Nasdaq 100 breakout cleared channel resistance, the fifth significant breakout in four months. All technicals are posting new near-term highs which also meant the short generated on the tag of the rising channel is negated.


The Semiconductor Index also enjoyed a substantial breakout as short covering drove traders out of their positions. Technicals see an improvement with a relative gain against the Nasdaq 100.

...

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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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