Posts Tagged ‘discretionary durable goods’

July 27, 2010 – Daily Growth Index Surpasses 3% Contraction Rate

July 27, 2010 – Daily Growth Index Surpasses 3% Contraction Rate

Courtesy of Rick at Consumer Metrics Institute

Since last week our Daily Growth Index has weakened further, surpassing a year-over-year contraction rate of 3%. This daily measurement of on-line consumer demand for discretionary durable goods has now dropped to the lowest level it has recorded since late November 2008:

Chart
(Click on chart for fuller resolution)

Our Daily Growth Index reflects the strength of consumer demand over the trailing 91-day ‘quarter’, weighted according to the contribution that goods involved in on-line transactions make to the GDP (per the BEA’s NIPA tables). It is designed to serve as a proxy for a ‘real-time’ GDP, and it slipped into net contraction on January 15th, 2010. To put this decline in perspective we offer the following observations:

1. The current contraction in consumer demand for discretionary durable goods has now extended for more than 6 months.

2. The day to day level of the year-over-year contraction is now worse than a similar reading of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2008 was after 6 months.

Chart
(Click on chart for fuller resolution)

  • The amount of damage done to an economy by an economic slowdown can by quantified by multiplying the event’s average rate of contraction times the duration of the event. By that measure the 2010 contraction has now inflicted 43% as much pain on the economy during its first 6 months as the ‘Great Recession’ did during the first 6 months of that slowdown.
  • Although this contraction has not yet reached the extreme contraction rates that were seen during 2008, after 6 months it has not yet formed a bottom. Furthermore, it is now likely to last longer than the 2008 event.
  • In an even broader perspective, the current level of the Daily Growth Index over the trailing 91-day ‘quarter’ would put it among the lowest 6% of all calendar quarters of GDP growth since 1947. Only roughly 1 in 17 quarters of GDP activity have been worse.
  • The duration of the current contraction event is becoming a real problem. Our trailing 183-day ‘two consecutive quarters’ growth index has dropped into the 5th percentile among similar two consecutive quarters of GDP ‘growth’ since 1947. This means that the trailing 6 months have been statistically worse than the trailing 3


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Gold Up 74% Since Last Market Peak 10 Years Ago

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Gold Up 74% Since Last Market Peak 10 Years Ago

 - 10 year anniversary of pre-Global Financial Crisis market peak in S&P 500 on October 9th

- Gold up 74% since the last market peak a decade ago; 11% pa in USD, 9.4% pa in EUR and 12.4% pa in GBP

- Precious metal has climbed $736/oz on Oct 9th 2007 to $1278.75 ten-years later

- S&P 500's 102% climb is thanks to asset-pumping policies by central banks, rather than value
...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

The difference between cybersecurity and cybercrime, and why it matters

 

The difference between cybersecurity and cybercrime, and why it matters

Courtesy of Roderick S. GrahamOld Dominion University

Confidence scams carried out online are still rampant. R. Stevens/CREST Research, CC BY-NC-SA

A Texas woman in her 50s, let’s call her “Amy,” met a man online calling himself “Charlie.” Amy, who lived in Texas, was in a bad marriage. Charlie said he was a businessman and a Christian, and wooed her. “He was saying all the right things,” Amy l...



more from Ilene

Insider Scoop

Economic Data Scheduled For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • Data on existing home sales for September will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
  • The Baker Hughes North American rig count report for the latest week is schedule for release at 1:00 p.m. ET.
  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester is set to speak in New York City at 2:00 p.m. ET.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Washington at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Posted-In: Economic DataNews Economics Pre-Market Outlook ...



http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

All Day Recovery

Courtesy of Declan.

It had looked bleak for markets at the open following a big gap down. However, this was just a temporary hit as markets came back right from the open.  It's also good news for bulls or long holders. The S&P shows this best.


The Dow Jones actually went as far as to test former upper channel resistance, now turned support.  Volume climbed in accumulation.

...

more from Chart School

Digital Currencies

The World's Largest ICO Is Imploding After Just 3 Months

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Earlier this summer, Tezos smashed existing sales records in the white-hot IPO market after the company’s pitch to build a better blockchain for cryptocurrencies made it one of the buzziest ICOs in the world. As we noted at the time, the company capitalized on that buzz by courting VC firms and other institutional investors with a $50 million token pre-sale. After the company opened up selling to the broader public, demand soared as investors greedily bought up tokens in spite of glitches that threatened to derail the sale early on. By the end of its weeks-long token sale in July, Tezos had sold more than $230 million.

Now, Tezos is proving that authorities in the US and China were on to something when they decided to crack down on the ICO market, which has become a cesspool of...



more from Bitcoin

ValueWalk

FBN TOPS CNBC ACROSS ALL BUSINESS DAY PROGRAMMING AS DOW HITS HISTORIC 23,000 MILESTONE

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

FOX Business Network (FBN) topped CNBC in Business Day and Total Day viewers as the Dow hit the historic 23,000 mark on Tuesday, October 17th, according to Nielsen Media Research. FBN’s Business Day coverage saw a 33 percent advantage over rival CNBC with 226,000 total viewers compared to CNBC’s 170,000. Additionally, FBN’s Total Day coverage saw a 22 percent advantage with 199,000 total viewers compared to CNBC’s 163,000.

]]> Get The Timeless Reading eBook in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Timeless Reading in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

FBN had the four top rated news programs of the day,...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

more from M.T.M.

Biotech

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Circadian rhythm Nobel: what they discovered and why it matters

Courtesy of Sally Ferguson, CQUniversity Australia

Today, the “beautiful mechanism” of the body clock, and the group of cells in our brain where it all happens, have shot to prominence. The 2017 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Jeffrey C. Hall, Michael Rosbash and Michael W. Young for their work on describing the molecular cogs and wheels inside our biological clock.

In the 18th century an astronomer by the name of Jean Jacques d'Ortuous de Ma...



more from Biotech

Members' Corner

Day of Last Dances

News today has been relentlessly terrible. A horrific mass murder happened last night in Las Vegas. (Our politician's abject failure to address gun control is beyond sickening.) And today, reports that Tom Petty died of a heart attack, followed by reports that Tom Petty is not dead, and now reports confirming that Tom Petty has passed away. 

...

more from Our Members

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



more from Kimble C.S.

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>