Today’s tickers: HRS, EWZ, RSH, PNRA, IVN, LO & DOW
HRS – Harris Corp. – A three-legged bullish play on the international communications and information technology company that serves government and commercial markets around the world indicates one option strategist expects shares of the underlying stock to rally significantly by expiration day in February 2011. Harris Corp.’s shares are up 0.95% at $44.46 just before 2:30 pm (ET), but earlier in the session rallied as much as 1.8% to an intraday high of $44.84. HRS shares moved higher on news the firm recently won a number of large contracts. One such contract is a 30-month, $25-million contract under the Network-Centric Solutions contract vehicle, which requires Harris to upgrade network infrastructure at 15 National Guard sites. Harris Corp. popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner in the first half of the trading day following the implementation of a three-legged bullish transaction. The investor responsible for the trade essentially sold puts to finance the purchase of a debit call spread. In doing so, the trader sold 1,500 puts at the February 2011 $35 strike for a premium of $1.75 per contract, purchased 1,500 calls at the February 2011 $45 strike for a premium of $4.65 each, and sold 1,500 calls at the higher February 2011 $55 strike for premium of $1.20 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $1.70 per contract. Thus, the options player is poised to profit as long as Harris Corp.’s shares rally 5.00% over the current price of $44.46 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $46.70 by expiration day. The investor walks away with maximum potential profits of $8.30 per contract if HRS shares surge 23.7% to trade above $55.00 by February 2011 expiration. The short put stance at the February 2011 $35 strike implies the investor is happy to have 150,000 shares of the underlying stock put to him at $35.00 each should the puts land in-the-money by expiration day.
EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund – An investor itching for a rally in shares of the Brazil ETF purchased a bullish call butterfly spread in the August contract this afternoon. Shares of the EWZ, an exchange-traded fund designed to correspond to the price and yield performance of publicly traded securities in the aggregate in the Brazilian market, as measured by the MSCI Brazil Index, fell 1.05% to trade at…
Mish is a picture of optimism compared to Robert Prechter (of Elliott Wave Fame). Robert Prechter is wrong, instead of dropping to 1,000, the Dow may only drop to 5,000, and even that may be too pessimistic in Mish’s eyes. - Ilene
I don’t know about you but I am psyched. The prospects of an ongoing party for another decade are extremely good as the following chart shows.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1999 to Present
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Market participants put on their party hats and started cheering in 1999 when the DOW crossed 10,000 for the first time. They have been cheering pretty much nonstop ever since.
Admittedly there was a bit of a party lag between early 2005 and late 2008 but the party hats have been working overtime since mid-2008 as shown below.
Dow Jones Industrial Average – October 2010 to Present
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Lost Decades Comparison
Please bear in mind that some pessimists liken the above behavior to a period of stunning underperformance of the Japanese Nikkei Index over the last two decades.
Japan’s Two Lost Decades
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The Perpetually Optimistic Mish
Being the ever-optimist that I am, I want to quickly point out that while Japan essentially went straight down over two decades, the US by comparison has put in stunning outperformance by going nowhere.
Indeed, the Dow Jones Index is remarkably sitting exactly where it was in April of 1999, over 10 years ago while the Nikkei over the same timeframe fell by about 50%.
Optimists such as myself have only one thing to say: Hallelujah!
Richard Russell has been very vocally bearish of late. He’s not the only notable investor who has turned increasingly bearish in recent months. Currently, Russell believes we are in the “dead zone” – a sort of no man’s land for the market where we could potentially meander for a while, attempt to regain our footing and then get knocked flat on our backs:
“We’re in the area that I call the “dead zone.” I’ve been here before, and it’s not easy to write in the dead zone. The dead zone tends to appear after a period of dramatic and clearly-defined action. After such periods the market will often act like an exhausted prize fighter who has been knocked down to the canvas. He gets to his feet, but he is unsteady on his feet, and he’s playing for time — until his head clears. He’s fending off the other fighter as best he can, and he’s depending on his experience. Will he make it to the end of the round? But what kind of shape is he in for the next round?
To be more specific, the last significant low for the Dow was recorded on June 7 at 9816, Transports 4038. I want to watch these two points for indications of further strength or weakness.
The Lowry’s figures are important at this juncture. Their Selling Pressure Index at 707 is 462 points above their Buying Power Index which stands at 245. Thus Selling Pressure is in the dominant position, which suggests that the market should work sharply lower at the drop of a dime.”
HOG – Harley-Davidson, Inc. – Motorcycle maker, Harley-Davidson, Inc., attracted hoards of options investors during the session with its shares rallying as much as 5.85% in morning trading to secure an intraday high of $27.71. Harley’s shares are currently up a more modest 1.80% to $26.65 just before 12:40 pm (ET). Bullish tactics dominated activity in the June contract, with optimistic traders picking up some 4,300 calls at the June $28 strike for an average premium of $0.52 apiece. Call buyers at this strike price make money only if Harley-Davidson’s shares exceed $28.52 ahead of June expiration. Optimism spread to the higher June $30 strike where 1,100 calls were purchased at an average premium of $0.15 each. The calls are not a profitable acquisition for traders unless Harley’s shares jump more than 13.1% over the current price of $26.65 to exceed the average breakeven price of $30.15 by June expiration day. Investor sentiment is mixed in the July contract. While bulls purchased call options at the July $30 strike for an average premium of $0.82 apiece, bearish traders employed different strategies. It looks like some pessimistic investors essentially opted to sell call options in order to finance the purchase of debit put spreads. These traders appear to have purchased roughly 4,000 puts at the July $25 strike for an average premium of $1.23 each, and sold about the same number of puts at the lower July $20 strike for $0.23 apiece. Additional financing for the bearish spread was provided by the sale of approximately 4,000 calls at the July $30 strike for an average premium of $0.82 each. Thus, the average net cost of the combination play amounts to $0.18 per contract. Investors employing this strategy are prepared to profit should HOG’s shares decline 6.9% to breach the effective breakeven price to the downside at $24.82 by July expiration. Maximum available profits of $4.82 per contract accumulate for bearish individuals if shares of the underlying stock plummet 24.95% from the current price of $26.65 to break through $20.00 by expiration day.
SKS – Saks, Inc. – Some investors made bullish moves on Saks, Inc. today with shares of the underlying stock up as much as 5.2% in the first half of the trading session to an intraday high of $8.50. The luxury retailer’s share price rose on optimism consumer spending…
The time scales are different, but the similarities in the historical DOW chart and a recent 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 are amazingly alike.
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Although these types of direct historical comparisons have limited trading value, it is still interesting to see similar patterns repeat now and then. The market action from the high in April matches the market action from the October 1929 high almost perfectly (albeit on different time scales).
Should the pattern continue you might expect something like this.
Dow October 1929 – July 1933
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The first chart ended October 1930, where the above red arrow starts. I am not calling for the pattern to continue, but I am certainly open to the idea that it could.
EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Contrarian options activity on the EEM, an exchange-traded fund designed to produce investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, points to optimism the fund’s shares may rebound sharply by July expiration. Shares of the emerging markets ETF are down 1.10% to stand at $37.68 just before 3:30 pm (ET). One bullish strategist positioning for a rally in the next couple of months purchased a ratio call spread on the fund. The investor picked up 3,000 calls at the July $38 strike for an average premium of $2.05 each, and sold 6,000 calls at the higher July $41 strike for a premium of $0.73 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.59 per contract. The trader responsible for the ratio spread makes money as long as shares of the EEM rally 2.41% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $38.59. Maximum available profits of $2.41 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if, by expiration, shares of the emerging markets fund rally 8.80% to $41.00. Shares of the EEM last traded at $41.00 back on May 4, 2010.
PFE – Pfizer, Inc. – Shares of the research-based global pharmaceutical company earlier rallied slightly to an intraday high of $15.42, but slipped lower in afternoon trading to stand 0.40% lower on the day at $15.17 as of 2:45 pm (ET). Bullish options activity took place on the stock despite the slight share price erosion suggesting one investor expects Pfizer’s shares to rebound sharply by September expiration. The optimistic individual purchased a debit call spread, picking up roughly 4,000 calls at the September $17 strike for an average premium of $0.30 each, and selling about the same number of calls at the higher September $19 strike for an average premium of $0.06 apiece. The investor paid a net $0.24 per contract to establish the spread. Pfizer’s shares must rally 13.65% over the current price of $15.17 in order for the investor to break even on the transaction at $17.24. Shares must surge 25.25% to exceed $19.00 before the trader accrues maximum available profits of $1.76 per contract.
XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR – A put spread on the XLF, an exchange-traded fund designed to yield investment results that correspond…
The look of love is in your eyes
A look your smile can’t disguise
The look of love is saying so much more than just words could ever say
And what my heart has heard, well it takes my breath away
This is the 60_minute DJIA, still entrenched in a short-term SELL, despite market strength over the past couple of days.
Same holds true for the 240_minute DJIA, still well into SELL MODE.
I consider this the most important of the three charts. It’s a Daily DJIA that suggests the decline of the past few weeks is unfinished. Note that there are several hundred DJIA points to go before this Daily trend is even threatened. That’s where the 60 & 240 minute charts come in, early warning systems which haven’t yet been triggered.
Listen, it’s not THAT unrealistic, look at the Dow from March 2009 to now! It’s a miracle!
Schwarzenegger economic adviser David Crane writes about the bizarre situation in WSJ saying in 1999, then governor Gray Davis signed into law a bill that made looting California legal and gave state pensioners quite a boost in income based on completely unrealistic projections of fund performance (you know, the sort of stuff prospectuses warn about).
What Calpers failed to disclose, however, was that (1) the state budget was on the hook for shortfalls should actual investment returns fall short of assumed investment returns, (2) those assumed investment returns implicitly projected the Dow Jones would reach roughly 25,000 by 2009 and 28,000,000 by 2099, unrealistic to say the least (3) shortfalls could turn out to be hundreds of billions of dollars, (4) Calpers’s own employees would benefit from the pension increases and (5) members of Calpers’s board had received contributions from the public employee unions who would benefit from the legislation. Had such a flagrant case of non-disclosure occurred in the private sector, even a sleepy SEC and US Attorney would have noticed.
Hahahahahahahahaha a 28,000,000 Dow by 2099! Now that’s funny.
F%$k schools, f&*k roads, f*%k social services, as long as our state employees are taken care of, what the hell do we need the rest of that sh*t for?!
Bram observes that gasoline is already $8/gallon (when converted from liters priced in euros) in The Netherlands, yet auto owners still spend hours every day commuting to work.
And this is a small nation with an extensive (if expensive) pubic transit system.
To the degree that every dollar/euro/quatloo spent on petrol/diesel is a dollar/euro/quatloo which is not available to be saved or spent on other goods/services, it is in effect a tax (notwithstanding the high taxes already tacked onto petrol/diesel in most of the EU nations).
Why would people continue to drive despite massive financial disincentives to do so? Could the high cost of housing be a factor, as Bram suggests? Or is personal transport so addictive that we are like the lab rats who famously starved themselves to death by continually pressing the button which released more cocaine for their "enjoyment"?
That experiment may be apocryphal, and I mention it only to suggest that there are clearly powerful emotional attractors involved in our decisions to own and drive autos. That is, it is not only a financial decision. But could the economy/society be modified structurally to bring work and home closer together, or to at least ease the financial and social decisions to move the two into close proximity?
Here is Bram’s informative commentary:
I read your story about fuel prices today. Here in the Netherlands the fuel prices are skyhigh, but everyone is still driving his metal cubicle and waiting patiently in traffic jams. Talking about the rise of hidden taxes. In 1993 it was 46.1% tax. Now in 2010 it is 72% on gasoline.
Note from dshort: I've updated the accompanying charts with yesterday's Consumer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The annualized rate of change is calculated to two decimal places for more precision in the side-by-side comparison with the PCE Price Index.
The BLS's Consumer Price Index for March shows core inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target range at 1.66%. The Core PCE price index at the end of the February (the most recent data), is significantly lower at 1.10%. The Fed is on record as preferring Core PCE as its inflation gauge.
The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary poli...
In the spring of 2012, The National Interest produced a special issue under the rubric of “The Crisis of the Old Order: The Crumbling Status Quo at Home and Abroad.” The thesis was that the old era of relative global stability, forged through the crucibles of the Great Depression and World War II, was coming unglued. In introducing the broad topic to readers, TNI editors wrote, “Only through a historical perspective can we fully understand the profound developments of our time and glean,...
Last week’s market performance was nasty again, especially for the Small-cap Growth style/cap, down 4%. Large-caps faired the best, losing only 2.7%. That’s ugly and today’s market seemed likely to be uglier today with escalating tensions over the weekend in Ukraine.
But once again, positive economic trumped the beating of the war drums. Retail Sales jumped up 1.1% over a projected 0.8% and last month’s tepid 0.3%, which was revised up to 0.7%. While autos led, sales were up solidly overall. Business inventories were about as expected with a positive tone. Citigroup (C) handily beat estimates to add to the morning’s surprises. As a result, the market was positive through most of the day, led by the DJI, up 0.91%, and the S&P 500, up 0.82%. NASDAQ had a less...
[Facebook] The social network is only weeks away from obtaining regulatory approval in Ireland for a service that would allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others, according to several people involved in the process.
The authorisation from Ireland’s central bank to become an “e-money” institution would allow ...
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Market Shadows Excelled – With a 1.36% Weekly Decline
In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is King. Our Virtual Value Porfolio took on that role this week as we lost a modest 1.36% of our value while the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped from 2.35% - 3.10%.
We remain bullish despite the shaky end of week sentiment. Our original $100,000 now totals $145,058 including our 2.8% cash reserve.
3D Systems shares had been in positive territory earlier in the session, up as much as 4.2% to touch an intraday high of $50.85. The stock bounced off a low of $47.17 in the early going, a new six-month low for the share price and a more than 50% drop from DDD’s record high of $97.28 reached back on January 3rd. Shares managed to stay in the green for much of the session before succumbing to selling pressure this afternoon. Options expiring next week suggests at least one trader is positioning for further weakness in the near term.
The 17Apr’14 $47 puts traded more than 2,000 times this morning against previously existing open interest o...
I just wanted to be sure you saw this. There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.
If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.
Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.
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Ladies and Gentlemen, hobos and tramps,
Cross-eyed mosquitoes, and Bow-legged ants,
I come before you, To stand behind you,
To tell you something, I know nothing about.
And so the circus begins in Union Square, San Francisco for this weeks JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. Will the momentum from 2013, which carried the S&P Spider Biotech ETF to all time highs, carry on in 2014? The Biotech ETF beat the S&P by better than 3 points.
As I noted in my previous post, Biotechs Galore - IPOs and More, biotechs were rushing to IPOs so that venture capitalists could unwind their holdings (funds are usually 5-7 years), as well as take advantage of the opportune moment...
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