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Posts Tagged ‘DOW’

POST-MASSIVE BULL MARKETS

POST-MASSIVE BULL MARKETS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Taking the other side of the extremely bearish Robert Prechter view of the markets is today’s chart of the day which shows the performance of several post-massive bear market rallies:

By Chart of the day

Today’s chart illustrates rallies that followed massive bear markets. For today’s chart, a ‘massive’ bear market is defined as a decline of greater than 50%. Since the Dow’s inception in 1896, there have been only three bear markets whereby the Dow declined more than 50% (early 1930s, late 1930s until early 1940s, and during the very recent financial crisis). Today’s chart also adds the rally that followed the dot-com bust during which the Nasdaq declined 78%. The current Dow rally has followed a path that is fairly similar to that of post-massive bear market rallies. The initial surge of the current rally lasted nearly 300 trading days and has been trading flat/choppy ever since. If the current rally were to continue to follow the post-massive bear market rally pattern, the current choppy phase would continue for another 200+ trading days.

Notes:
- The market is at a critical juncture. Where we go from here may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive charts of Chart of the Day Plus.


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Dow – the 70 year update

Chris Kimble writes:

"Good morning…

I attempt to share ideas for longer-term and short-term investors. The attached chart might appeal to both."

Here’s the chart of the Dow going back 70 years. It shows the Dow at the top of its resistance channel, which it has been above in the recent past. With 70 years of perspective, even a rather large drop in the market now would just look like reversion to the mean. – Ilene 

Dow Chart

click on chart to enlarge

For more charts by Chris, check out his blog: Kimble Charting Solutions


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Goldilocks and the 300,000,000 Bears

Talk about feeling outnumbered!

As the guy in Airplane kind of said – "Looks like I pricked the wrong week to get bullish!"  Of course, as I often tell people I am neither bullish nor bearish – I’m rangeish – and our range is the 5% band between around Dow 10,200 and S&P 1,070, which takes us as low as Dow 9,690 and S&P 1,016 and as high as Dow 10,710 and S&P 1,123 before I really "flip flop" my positions.  Despite the fact that this is the range we predicted last October and is the range we’ve been in (other than a brief trip to 11,200, which we shorted the hell out of) all year – people still seem to find it necessary to call me either bullish or bearish as we navigate the channel.

I suppose I have been HOPEFUL for the month (now heading into day 14) that we will finally make a little progress and establish a higher floor at our usual mid-points while, at the same time, the MSM have decided that we are all going to die.  That does make me kind of bullish by comparison doesn’t it?  We are mainly in cash and we are well hedged to the downside so, unless we are REALLY heading much, much lower, there is little profit in speculating to the downside, other than our quick trades.  As PT Barnum once said:

"A man who is all caution, will never dare to take hold and be successful; and a man who is all boldness, is merely reckless, and must eventually fail. A man may go on "’change" and make fifty, or one hundred thousand dollars in speculating in stocks, at a single operation. But if he has simple boldness without caution, it is mere chance, and what he gains to-day he will lose to-morrow. You must have both the caution and the boldness, to insure success." 

Balance is the key to long-term success and we’ve had many conversations about that in Member Chat.  Our goal is to be neither bullish or bearish but rather to sell premium to both the bulls and the bears when conditions permit us.  As Ravalos said Friday in Member Chat:

"Ever since I became member (actually before I became member I was already following your newsletter for quite some time) I find it hard for me to BUY PREMIUM. Over time, I’ve realized that buying the


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Butterflies, Straddles and Spreads, Oh My!

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: HRS, EWZ, RSH, PNRA, IVN, LO & DOW

HRS – Harris Corp. – A three-legged bullish play on the international communications and information technology company that serves government and commercial markets around the world indicates one option strategist expects shares of the underlying stock to rally significantly by expiration day in February 2011. Harris Corp.’s shares are up 0.95% at $44.46 just before 2:30 pm (ET), but earlier in the session rallied as much as 1.8% to an intraday high of $44.84. HRS shares moved higher on news the firm recently won a number of large contracts. One such contract is a 30-month, $25-million contract under the Network-Centric Solutions contract vehicle, which requires Harris to upgrade network infrastructure at 15 National Guard sites. Harris Corp. popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner in the first half of the trading day following the implementation of a three-legged bullish transaction. The investor responsible for the trade essentially sold puts to finance the purchase of a debit call spread. In doing so, the trader sold 1,500 puts at the February 2011 $35 strike for a premium of $1.75 per contract, purchased 1,500 calls at the February 2011 $45 strike for a premium of $4.65 each, and sold 1,500 calls at the higher February 2011 $55 strike for premium of $1.20 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $1.70 per contract. Thus, the options player is poised to profit as long as Harris Corp.’s shares rally 5.00% over the current price of $44.46 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $46.70 by expiration day. The investor walks away with maximum potential profits of $8.30 per contract if HRS shares surge 23.7% to trade above $55.00 by February 2011 expiration. The short put stance at the February 2011 $35 strike implies the investor is happy to have 150,000 shares of the underlying stock put to him at $35.00 each should the puts land in-the-money by expiration day.

EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund – An investor itching for a rally in shares of the Brazil ETF purchased a bullish call butterfly spread in the August contract this afternoon. Shares of the EWZ, an exchange-traded fund designed to correspond to the price and yield performance of publicly traded securities in the aggregate in the Brazilian market, as measured by the MSCI Brazil Index, fell 1.05% to trade at…
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Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!

Mish is a picture of optimism compared to Robert Prechter (of Elliott Wave Fame).  Robert Prechter is wrong, instead of dropping to 1,000, the Dow may only drop to 5,000, and even that may be too pessimistic in Mish’s eyes. - Ilene 

Put on Your Party Hats – It’s Time to Party for Another Decade!

Courtesy of Mish 

I don’t know about you but I am psyched. The prospects of an ongoing party for another decade are extremely good as the following chart shows.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – 1999 to Present 

click on chart for sharper image

Market participants put on their party hats and started cheering in 1999 when the DOW crossed 10,000 for the first time. They have been cheering pretty much nonstop ever since.

Admittedly there was a bit of a party lag between early 2005 and late 2008 but the party hats have been working overtime since mid-2008 as shown below.

Dow Jones Industrial Average – October 2010 to Present 

click on chart for sharper image

Lost Decades Comparison

Please bear in mind that some pessimists liken the above behavior to a period of stunning underperformance of the Japanese Nikkei Index over the last two decades.

Japan’s Two Lost Decades

click on chart for sharper image

The Perpetually Optimistic Mish

Being the ever-optimist that I am, I want to quickly point out that while Japan essentially went straight down over two decades, the US by comparison has put in stunning outperformance by going nowhere.

Top hat and champagne glass held aloft for New Year's

Indeed, the Dow Jones Index is remarkably sitting exactly where it was in April of 1999, over 10 years ago while the Nikkei over the same timeframe fell by about 50%.

Optimists such as myself have only one thing to say: Hallelujah!

Meanwhile doom and gloomers like Robert Prechter think the Dow will fall to 1,000.

To that I say "Poppycock" (pretty harsh language indeed for those who know me well).

By my optimistic comparison, I think the Dow’s downside is 5,000. That is a stunning 400% more optimistic appraisal of the current state of affairs than Prechter.

Furthermore, I freely admit that the DOW, instead of dropping, just may meander around 10,000 for another decade.

Wow. Except for public pension plan assumptions, imagine the parties we can have over that!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


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RICHARD RUSSELL: WE’RE IN THE “DEAD ZONE”

RICHARD RUSSELL: WE’RE IN THE “DEAD ZONE”

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Richard Russell has been very vocally bearish of late.  He’s not the only notable investor who has turned increasingly bearish in recent months.  Currently, Russell believes we are in the “dead zone” – a sort of no man’s land for the market where we could potentially meander for a while, attempt to regain our footing and then get knocked flat on our backs:

“We’re in the area that I call the “dead zone.” I’ve been here before, and it’s not easy to write in the dead zone. The dead zone tends to appear after a period of dramatic and clearly-defined action. After such periods the market will often act like an exhausted prize fighter who has been knocked down to the canvas. He gets to his feet, but he is unsteady on his feet, and he’s playing for time — until his head clears. He’s fending off the other fighter as best he can, and he’s depending on his experience. Will he make it to the end of the round? But what kind of shape is he in for the next round?

To be more specific, the last significant low for the Dow was recorded on June 7 at 9816, Transports 4038. I want to watch these two points for indications of further strength or weakness.

The Lowry’s figures are important at this juncture. Their Selling Pressure Index at 707 is 462 points above their Buying Power Index which stands at 245. Thus Selling Pressure is in the dominant position, which suggests that the market should work sharply lower at the drop of a dime.”

Source: Dow Theory Letters 

 


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Investors HOG-Wild for Harley-Davidson, Inc. Options

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: HOG, SKS, MDRX, DFS, NFLX, IGT & DOW

HOG – Harley-Davidson, Inc. – Motorcycle maker, Harley-Davidson, Inc., attracted hoards of options investors during the session with its shares rallying as much as 5.85% in morning trading to secure an intraday high of $27.71. Harley’s shares are currently up a more modest 1.80% to $26.65 just before 12:40 pm (ET). Bullish tactics dominated activity in the June contract, with optimistic traders picking up some 4,300 calls at the June $28 strike for an average premium of $0.52 apiece. Call buyers at this strike price make money only if Harley-Davidson’s shares exceed $28.52 ahead of June expiration. Optimism spread to the higher June $30 strike where 1,100 calls were purchased at an average premium of $0.15 each. The calls are not a profitable acquisition for traders unless Harley’s shares jump more than 13.1% over the current price of $26.65 to exceed the average breakeven price of $30.15 by June expiration day. Investor sentiment is mixed in the July contract. While bulls purchased call options at the July $30 strike for an average premium of $0.82 apiece, bearish traders employed different strategies. It looks like some pessimistic investors essentially opted to sell call options in order to finance the purchase of debit put spreads. These traders appear to have purchased roughly 4,000 puts at the July $25 strike for an average premium of $1.23 each, and sold about the same number of puts at the lower July $20 strike for $0.23 apiece. Additional financing for the bearish spread was provided by the sale of approximately 4,000 calls at the July $30 strike for an average premium of $0.82 each. Thus, the average net cost of the combination play amounts to $0.18 per contract. Investors employing this strategy are prepared to profit should HOG’s shares decline 6.9% to breach the effective breakeven price to the downside at $24.82 by July expiration. Maximum available profits of $4.82 per contract accumulate for bearish individuals if shares of the underlying stock plummet 24.95% from the current price of $26.65 to break through $20.00 by expiration day.

SKS – Saks, Inc. – Some investors made bullish moves on Saks, Inc. today with shares of the underlying stock up as much as 5.2% in the first half of the trading session to an intraday high of $8.50. The luxury retailer’s share price rose on optimism consumer spending…
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Dow October 1929 – October 1930 vs. 60 Minute S&P 500 Chart

Dow October 1929 – October 1930 vs. 60 Minute S&P 500 Chart

Courtesy of Mish 

The time scales are different, but the similarities in the historical DOW chart and a recent 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 are amazingly alike.

click on chart for sharper image

Although these types of direct historical comparisons have limited trading value, it is still interesting to see similar patterns repeat now and then. The market action from the high in April matches the market action from the October 1929 high almost perfectly (albeit on different time scales).

Should the pattern continue you might expect something like this.

Dow October 1929 – July 1933

click on chart for sharper image

The first chart ended October 1930, where the above red arrow starts. I am not calling for the pattern to continue, but I am certainly open to the idea that it could.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


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Emerging Markets ETF Optimist Buys Ratio Call Spread

Today’s tickers: EEM, PFE, XLF, DELL, NWL, QCOR, SHOO, EWZ, SLB, DOW & TEX

EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Contrarian options activity on the EEM, an exchange-traded fund designed to produce investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, points to optimism the fund’s shares may rebound sharply by July expiration. Shares of the emerging markets ETF are down 1.10% to stand at $37.68 just before 3:30 pm (ET). One bullish strategist positioning for a rally in the next couple of months purchased a ratio call spread on the fund. The investor picked up 3,000 calls at the July $38 strike for an average premium of $2.05 each, and sold 6,000 calls at the higher July $41 strike for a premium of $0.73 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.59 per contract. The trader responsible for the ratio spread makes money as long as shares of the EEM rally 2.41% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $38.59. Maximum available profits of $2.41 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if, by expiration, shares of the emerging markets fund rally 8.80% to $41.00. Shares of the EEM last traded at $41.00 back on May 4, 2010.

PFE – Pfizer, Inc. – Shares of the research-based global pharmaceutical company earlier rallied slightly to an intraday high of $15.42, but slipped lower in afternoon trading to stand 0.40% lower on the day at $15.17 as of 2:45 pm (ET). Bullish options activity took place on the stock despite the slight share price erosion suggesting one investor expects Pfizer’s shares to rebound sharply by September expiration. The optimistic individual purchased a debit call spread, picking up roughly 4,000 calls at the September $17 strike for an average premium of $0.30 each, and selling about the same number of calls at the higher September $19 strike for an average premium of $0.06 apiece. The investor paid a net $0.24 per contract to establish the spread. Pfizer’s shares must rally 13.65% over the current price of $15.17 in order for the investor to break even on the transaction at $17.24. Shares must surge 25.25% to exceed $19.00 before the trader accrues maximum available profits of $1.76 per contract.

XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR – A put spread on the XLF, an exchange-traded fund designed to yield investment results that correspond…
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The look of Dow

The look of Dow

Courtesy of Allan

The look of love is in your eyes
A look your smile can’t disguise
The look of love is saying so much more than just words could ever say
And what my heart has heard, well it takes my breath away

This is the 60_minute DJIA, still entrenched in a short-term SELL, despite market strength over the past couple of days.

Same holds true for the 240_minute DJIA, still well into SELL MODE.

 

I consider this the most important of the three charts.  It’s a Daily DJIA that suggests the decline of the past few weeks is unfinished.  Note that there are several hundred DJIA points to go before this Daily trend is even threatened.  That’s where the 60 & 240 minute charts come in, early warning systems which haven’t yet been triggered. 

Allan’s “Trend Following Trading Model,” is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Allan’s offering PSW readers a special 25% discount. Click here.  For a more detailed introduction, read this introductory article.


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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743"

Thank you for you time!

 
 

Phil's Favorites

Memo to CAPE Slaves

Memo to CAPE Slaves Courtesy of    You don’t hear much out of the adherents of CAPE these days, as even its most ardent fans have given up on it as a timing tool.

Earlier this year and during much of last year, I’d taken the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio to task for various reasons, most notably the fact that it didn’t allow for accounting changes (GAAP losses are recorded differently), structural changes in our economy (are we all still farmers?), structural changes in the makeup of the stock market (isn’t software inherently more profitable than railroading?), taxation (dividends get preferential treatment versus ordinary income) etc. See ...



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Chart School

Visualizing GDP: Dissecting the Q2 Advance Estimate

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Note from dshort: The charts in this commentary have been updated to include the Q2 2014 Advance Estimate.

The chart below is my way to visualize real GDP change since 2007. I've used a stacked column chart to segment the four major components of GDP with a dashed line overlay to show the sum of the four, which is real GDP itself. Here is the latest overview from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Let's take a closer look at the contributions of GDP of the four major subcomponents. My ...



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Zero Hedge

3 WTF Charts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Something doesn't add up here... (and rumors of heavy institutional selling is not helping)

 

Breadth is weak...

 

and flows are diverging...

The average Russell 2000 stock is -20% under its 52 week high

And High Yield credit is flashing bright red...

 

As Barc...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Insider Scoop

Orbitz Worldwide Annouces Large Stakeholder Will Sell Shares In Public Offering

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related OWW Morning Market Losers UPDATE: Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage On Orbitz Powerful Proxy Adviser Blasts Target Board Over Breach (Fox Business)

In a press release Wednesday, Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE: OWW) announced its largest stakeholder will sell 20 million shares of the company.

Orbitz released a separate press release stating mostly ...



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Option Review

Kellogg Call Options Active Ahead Of Earnings

Shares in packaged foods producer Kellogg Co. (Ticker: K) are in positive territory on Monday afternoon, trading up by roughly 0.20% at $65.48 as of 2:20 p.m. ET. Options volume on the stock is well above average levels today, with around 12,500 contracts traded on the name versus an average daily reading of around 1,700 contracts. Most of the volume is concentrated in September expiry calls, perhaps ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings report set for release ahead of the opening bell on Thursday. Time and sales data suggests traders are snapping up calls at the Sep 67.5, 70.0 and 72.5 strikes. Volume is heaviest in the Sep 72.5 strike calls, with around 4,600 contracts traded against sizable open interest of approximately 11,800 contracts. It looks like traders paid an average premium of $0.37 per contrac...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bold bulls dare meek bears to take another crack

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Once again, stocks have shown some inkling of weakness. But every other time for almost three years running, the bears have failed to pile on and get a real correction in gear. Will this time be different? Bulls are almost daring them to try it, putting forth their best Dirty Harry impression: “Go ahead, make my day.” Despite weak or neutral charts and moderately bullish (at best) sector rankings, the trend is definitely on the side of the bulls, not to mention the bears’ neurotic skittishness about emerging into the sunlight.

In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, incl...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 28th, 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW in the comments below each post. 

Our weekly newsletter Stock World Weekly is ready for your enjoyment.

Read about the week ahead, trade ideas from Phil, and more. Please click here and sign in with your PSW user name and password. Or take a free trial.

We appreciate your feedback--please let us know what you think in the comment section below.  

...

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Digital Currencies

BitLicense Part 1 - Can Poorly Thought Out Regulation Drive the US Economy Back into the Dark Ages?

Courtesy of Reggie Middleton.

An Op-Ed piece penned by Veritaseum Chief Contracts Officer, Matt Bogosian

This past weekend (despite American Airlines' best efforts), Reggie and I made it to the Second Annual North American Bitcoin Conference in Chicago. While there were some very creative (and very ambitious) ideas on how to try to realize the disruptive Bitcoin protocol, one of the predominant topics of discussion was New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky's proposed Bitcoin regulations (the BitLicense proposal) - percieved by many participants at the event as an apparent ...



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Market Shadows

Danger: Falling Prices

Danger: Falling Prices

By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

We tried holding up stock prices but couldn’t get the job done. Market Shadows’ Virtual Value Portfolio dipped by 2% during the week but still holds on to a market-beating 8.45% gain YTD. There was no escaping the downdraft after a major Portuguese bank failed. Of all the triggers for a large selloff, I’d guess the Portuguese bank failure was pretty far down most people's list of "things to worry about." 

All three major indices gave up some ground with the Nasdaq composite taking the hardest hi...



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Pharmboy

Biotechs & Bubbles

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely.  From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.

First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices.  Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment.  Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer.  For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...



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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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