Posts Tagged ‘Dubai’

The Great Afghanistan Bank Run

The Great Afghanistan Bank Run

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant 

Did we mention we bombed the sh*t out of the bank?!

Here’s the quick sitch: Kabul Bank – Afghanistan’s largest – is under attack by depositors who have removed some $155 million in deposits in the last two days after news that the bank had been running a questionable operation and loaning money to insiders like Mahmood Karzai, brother of Afghan president Hamid Karzai. Karzai is a Kabul Bank shareholder, naturally. The bank’s chairman Sherkhan Farnood decided an island shaped like a palm tree in Dubai would be a great investment so he took it upon himself to invest $160 billion of the bank’s assets in said palm tree islands and, for convenience’s sake, put the properties in his name. Who wouldn’t?

The U.S. government didn’t find these activities to be entertainment and swooped in to stop the nonsense. Unfortunately now they may be required to prop up Afghanistan’s already precarious financial system. Oh well, they’re experts in doing that at this point, if they could save Bank of America I’m sure they can save some corrupt Afghan bank.

MSNBC:

A senior U.S. official in Kabul told NBC that in recent weeks, Gen. David Petraeus, commander of international forces in the country, and other U.S. officials had “forcefully” urged President Karzai to crack down on the bank.

After reviewing the bank’s activities, “we didn’t like what we saw,” said the official. In particular, the official said, U.S. officials — “and many Afghans” — were upset that the country’s assets, much of which has been derived from billions of dollars in western aid, were being taken out of the country and invested elsewhere.

The U.S. prodding apparently prompted President Karzai to direct Afghanistan’s Central Bank to move in and oust Farnood, the bank’s chairman, and Khalilullah Frozi, the bank’s chief executive officer, from their positions. The reports of the move, first reported by the Washington Post, triggered the run on deposits that has now threatened the bank.

U.S. officials, under the direction of David Cohen, assistant secretary of the treasury for counterterrorism, are closely monitoring the situation and have dispatched a team to assist officials of the Afghan Finance Ministry as they grapple with how to deal with fallout from the bank withdrawals, a Treasury Department official said Thursday.

"U.S. officials in


continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




EXCESS GLOBAL DEBT IS STILL THE PROBLEM

EXCESS GLOBAL DEBT IS STILL THE PROBLEM

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

By Comstock Partners:

Berlin Laboratory Test For Swine Flu

The impact of the Greek debt crisis on the stock market does not come as a surprise to us.  It is one part of the chain of reaction from the excess global debt problem and the related “cycle of deflation” that we have been warning about since the late 1990s.   At that time we wrote about the large amount of debt being used to finance the dot-com boom that collapsed in the early 2000s.  From 2003 to 2007 we continually pointed out that the housing boom and related debt buildup sparked by the Fed’s extended low-interest rate policy would inevitably have a bad ending.

Since that time we have been insistent that without the reduction of both global and domestic debt any economic recovery would not be sustainable. However, rather than reducing overall debt, most nations, including the U.S., have shifted debt from private to sovereign hands.  These actions were virtually certain to result in sovereign debt problems, and these have now begun to show up in spades.  As usual the weaker entities have been hit first (Dubai and Greece) and the debts are now in the process of being transferred to the stronger nations.  The key problem is that the stronger nations have only limited capacity, at best, to take on a significant amount of additional debt, and they run the danger of being dragged down as well in a continuation of the chain reaction.  Without a major deleveraging of debt the economy cannot return to its historical long-term growth rate.  But the process of deleveraging will result in below-average growth with recurring recessions until the process of reducing debt to manageable levels is completed.  The process of deleveraging almost always results in deflation, and a series of “beggar thy neighbor” policies, although inflation can eventually follow as nations attempt to print money in an effort to avert defaulting on their debt. (Please see Comstock’s cycle of deflation chart below)

Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Hydraulic excavator with skyscrapers in background

The Greek debt problem, therefore, is not an isolated event, but part of a chain reaction in response to decades of debt expansion that must now be unwound.  As soon as the Dubai crisis emerged late last year we have seen it as just the first in a series of sovereign debt crises that would emerge over time.  Even if the EU and IMF…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , ,




Wednesday’s Worry – World Wide Cash Crunch

Hugo Chavez is running low on cash

Should you care that he just had to withdraw $5Bn from reserves, sending them to a 10-month low and down 19% to $28.35Bn?  Well it’s not just Venezuela but they are a good example of what’s happening around the World as even oil-rich nations can no longer prop up their economies and will have to begin competing with the US, Europe and Japan to borrow money on the international markets.  Venezuela may have external debt financing needs this year of as much as $19 billion and as much as $22 billion in 2011 should authorities choose not to use non-reserve savings estimated at $41.1 billion, according to Morgan Stanley.  “Short of some break in Venezuela’s current dynamic, the economy may be faced with a severe dollar crunch as early as this year,” Pardelli and Volberg said. “The dollar crunch may prompt the authorities to attempt to buy time by drawing down their hard currency savings, issuing debt or significantly ratcheting up policy heterodoxy.”  

Greece needs $15.6Bn by the end of May and that much again in August and November.  Seven-year notes sold by the government this week fell even after the European Union and the International Monetary Fund crafted an aid package that would be triggered should the nation be unable to raise sufficient cash from capital markets to cover its financing needs. Greece may pay about 13 billion Euros more in interest on the debt it sells this year than it would have to had yields stayed at their pre-crisis levels relative to Germany’s.

The UK will be spending 10% of their tax revenues just to pay the interest on their debt as debt itself soars to 90% of GDP with debt now costing the UK more than their Defence and Transportation budgets combined.  Neighboring Ireland is looking at a $110Bn bill over the next 12 months to stabilize it’s bad banks – and that’s AFTER giving the banks a 47% haircut on the value of the assets the government will be picking up.  This will not be counted as an addition to Ireland’s already $95Bn in debt for 2010 because, technically, they are buying an asset - even if the asset is toxic.  It’s the same trick our Fed uses every month to pretend things are fine…

Fed President Richard Fisher says the U.S. can’t ignore the effect of the
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , ,




New Baghdad and the Collapse of Capitalism

New Baghdad and the Collapse of Capitalism

Courtesy of Doug Hornig, Casey Research

 

Forty years ago, it was a small town on the Persian Gulf, merely one of seven sheikdoms joined in federation in 1971 to create the United Arab Emirates. Basically, there was nothing there but sand. Yes, oil had been discovered under that sand, and the city/state was enjoying its first economic boomlet. From about 60,000 in 1968, population tripled by 1975, doubled in the next ten years, and nearly doubled again by 1995.

'Burj Khalifa', The World's Tallest Building - Dubai

 

Problem is, especially compared with many of its Gulf neighbors, it didn’t have all that much oil to begin with, and its reserves were falling fast. What it did have was Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the most influential member of the family that had ruled for more than a century and a half. And the sheikh had a vision.

 

Sheikh Mohammed believed that the Muslim world needed a New Baghdad, a center of commerce and learning and culture that would shine like the hub of the old caliphate, which had dominated the civilized world a thousand years earlier. He was determined to erect a dazzling, ultra-modern new metropolis, starting from scratch.

 

On the sands of Dubai.

 

The rest of the story is pretty well known. The crown prince, and later ruler, of Dubai had his way. His emirate became one of the richest and gaudiest places on the planet. Population shot to almost 1½ million, about 90% of them immigrants – from unskilled Bangladeshi laborers to software engineers from the U.S. – all lured by the promise of better-paying jobs than they could find at home.

 

Even…
continue reading


Tags: ,




Sovereign Debt Defaults

Here’s two posts (article plus update) by The Shocked Investor on Sovereign Debt Defaults.

Concerns Escalate On Sovereign Debt Defaults: Who Is Next?

A week ago we posted the list of countries [below] at risk of default or with very poor credit ratings. It turns out that concerns are seriously growing worldwide about sovereign debt.

The Financial Times reports today that following the disasters in Greece and Dubai indeed sovereign debt risk is emerging as a serious concern for senior bankers, risk consultants and auditors: "Bankers at some large institutions are discussing whether they need to make provisions for sovereign risks in the same way they now set aside reserves to cover losses from corporate or emerging market risks".

This all has to do not only with the seemingly isolated financial disasters (Greece, Dubai, although one can add Hungary, Ireland, Iceland, Japan, the U.K, and even the U.S, and several others – are these really isolated?), but with the loose monetary policy employed by some countries. Moody’s has warned that debt could be sold off in 2010 if central banks do not implement successful exit strategies from these loose monetary policies.

"Control Risks, a risk consultancy, has seen a big increase in mandates from insurance companies and other financial institutions seeking to understand the part politics plays in sovereign default risk".

A survey showed lower risks for eurozone countries given the likelihood of support by other member states, however, countries such as Kazakhstan, Ukraine, the Seychelles and Eritrea – are vulnerable to downgrades and default.

So we have money printing pushing markets up, and debts and disasters in the making. This is why I like straddes so much. Anything can happen.

Sovereign Debt Update: Europe At Great Risk

Here is a great follow-up on our article on sovereign debt risk. The Wall Street Journal has a map of the risks in Europe:

[Chart: Euro Zone Grapples With Debt Crisis, WSJ]

Says the WSJ article: "After two years of crashing banking systems and economic recession, the euro zone enters 2010 with a full-blown debt crisis. The European Commission warns that public finances in half of the 16 euro-zone nations are at high risk of becoming unsustainable".

"Half of the 16 euro-zone countries are deemed to be at


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,




Merry Monday Morning

Mondays never let us down, do they?

Thank goodness too or we would have regretted flipping more bullish on Friday but the combination of thin trading and a short week with no data on Monday was just too much for the pump-monkeys to resist and they are out in force this morning, sending the Dow futures 40 points higher, over 100 points above Friday's low, where our lower levels held and we made some upside bets (see Weekend Wrap-Up for details).  We are mainly in cash for the duration of the year but we'll be keeping our eyes open for some nice opportunities, like shorting oil again as they cross below $75 (now $75.08 at 7:30) on the last day of January contract trading, using $75 as the stop line to the upside – that play should be an easy way to scalp a few quarters

Gold popped back to $1,118 overnight but not too impressive as silver is laying around at $17.35 while copper was rejected at $3.16 and couldn't hold $3.15 either so we're probably heading back to test $3.10 this week once the dollar reasserts itself after losing ground to the Euro ($1.435) and the Yen (90.50) in overnight trading (after the Nikkei closed up, of course).  None of that matters, of course, in the final 8 trading days of the first decade of the 21st century as it's VERY unlikely the Dow will match it's Dec 27th, 1999 finish of 11,497 or the S&P 1,469 or especially the Nasdaq, which is not even at 1/2 it's 1999 finish of 4,069.

The NYSE, oddly enough, has been a small winner over the past decade, having finished 1999 at just 6,876 and the Russell has been the best performing index, now at 610 and up over 20% from the decade's start at 504.  This is GOOD – this makes me feel good about America and about our prospects for the future.  Of course our big industrials had a rough decade – we shipped our manufacturing overseas and there's little left there.  Of course tech can't compete with the idiotic bubble of 1999 and the S&P also fell victim to globalization and performed poorly against increasing foreign competition.

 

But at home, our broader and generally smaller companies – the ones that employ 70% of all American workers, have found a
continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




Hmmm…. Dubai (Again) – More?

Hmmm…. Dubai (Again) – More?

Courtesy of Karl Denninger at The Market Ticker


Tags:




Testy Tuesday – Things Start To Go Wrong

Over 100 people were killed by car bombs in Baghdad at about 3:30 this morning.

That got Europe off in a foul mood this morning and poor earnings guidance from MMM didn't help, nor did poor Industrial Production numbers out of Germany or new fears that Dubai World will cause massive losses (Nakheel lost $3.65Bn in it's first half report).  Then Moody’s Investors Service said today deteriorating public finances in the U.S. and U.K. may “test the Aaa boundaries” while Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece’s credit grade to BBB+.  Ben Bernanke told the Washington Economic Club yesterday that the U.S. economy faces “formidable headwinds” but, on the bright side Japan’s government backed a stimulus package worth 7.2 trillion yen ($81 billion).   

Before we know it, futures are off 100 points at 7:30.  Hopefully we don't break below 10,320 at the open as we covered our long DIA puts to that spot, more worried about a bounce up than a market move in our generally bearish direction.  We had a very nice day yesterday with our $100K Virtual Portfolio already making it's target $1,000 for the week so locking in the gains seemed prudent but maybe we could have been greedier…

Central banks and governments around the world are totally right in saying that the recovery is still very weak,” Philippe Gijsels, a senior structured product strategist at Fortis Global Markets in Brussels, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Going into 2010 I would be extremely surprised if we do not see a serious hiccup somewhere.”  German industrial output unexpectedly fell for the first time in three months in October, led by a drop in production of energy and investment goods such as machinery. Output decreased 1.8 percent from September, when it advanced 3.1 percent, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast a 1 percent gain,  off by 280%, according to the median of 38 estimates by "expert" economists in a Bloomberg survey.  

Moody's fingers the U.S. and U.K. among top-rated sovereign borrowers, saying they must prove they can reduce their bulging deficits or risk a downgrade to their AAA credit ratings. Under its most pessimistic scenario, the U.S. could lose its rating in 2013 if economic growth lags, interest rates rise and the government fails to shrink the deficit or recover its loans to the financial sector.


continue reading


Tags: , , , , ,




When You See The Flash……

When You See The Flash……

Courtesy of Karl Denninger of The Market Ticker

Operations Allied Force

This is rather humorous, really….

Bankers are furious that two defaulting Saudi conglomerates that owe $20 billion (£12.2 billion) appear to be favouring local banks over foreign creditors. State-owned Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC and Standard Chartered are all understood to have exposure to Saad Group and Ahmad Hamad Algosaibi & Bros (Ahab). Dozens of other Western banks are also owed money, including Citigroup and BHP Paribas.

So what?

You banksters were perfectly happy when you got preference you weren’t entitled to last year!

Remember that?  You got paid at par on things that were worth much less and in many cases zero.  AIG Credit Default Swaps anyone?  GM bonds?  Chrysler bonds?  Various bank deals that "protected" bondholders that should have taken losses, while screwing non-bank debtholders and others?

I have raised hell about the refusal to honor the sanctity of the capital structure in these pages since, well, The Market Ticker began publication.

But I haven’t seen any of you banksters complain when the favoritism and violation of the capital structure favored you!

Now, suddenly, Saudi Arabia is joining the ranks of defaulting Arab nation-state-projects, and they’re doing the same sort of thing to foreign holders that those very same banks did to other people last year, in many cases bankrupting them outright.

Angela Knight, head of the British Bankers’ Association, said yesterday: “This is an important issue for our members and one we would like to see resolved as calmly and quietly as possible.”

Funny how secrecy always is a primary concern when you’re the one looking for something different…. and especially when you just got done screwing everyone else in the world a short time ago.

I hope The House of Saud tells you where to stick your mendacity.

You saw the flash over Thanksgiving with Dubai.  You’re welcome to believe that the 1500 degree wall of air and overpressure won’t arrive if you’d like, or that the plume of fallout won’t blow your way, even though the wind was in your face while you were facing that flash.

believeGo ahead folks. 

Believe.

Believe that all the bailouts and handouts that favored people…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , ,




Wickedness Abides

James Kunstler on Dubai…"the monstrosity they built in their waterless convection-oven of a city-state makes Las Vegas look like a mere strip mall in comparison." – Ilene

Wickedness Abides

"While Dubai is not big enough to set off financial repercussions outside the Middle East, the main fear is that investors could flee risky markets all at once in search of safer havens for their money."  -- The NYT, Vikas Bajaj and Graham Bowley, reporting.

     Apart from the stark self-contradiction in this quote from The New York Times, you have to love the fatuous ‘it’s all good’ self-assurance where global banking is concerned. No problemo y’all!  A mere overdraft incident, a cash-flow hiccup… and yet "the main fear" [among whom?] is that investors [where and in what? Like, everywhere?]  could flee risky markets all at once in search of safer havens for their money [WTF?].  Gosh, well, as long as they don’t flee the New York Stock Exchange, the Hang Seng, the FTSE…. And, hey, do you suppose anybody bought any credit default swap "insurance" on the deals that financed scores and scores of super-giant condominium skyscrapers and hotels amounting to the greatest spec construction folly in the history of the world?

     Snapshots of the stupid fucking work-in-progress have been circulating around the Internet for five years, the disbelief was so monumental.  I confess, when I first saw the Palm Island I was impressed at what a superb air-strike target it presented.  And then, when the real estate assemblage of artificial islands arranged like a map-of-the-world came along, I could only imagine the megalomanical glee rising in the throat of a jet bomber pilot (nationality unspecified) as he closed in on it.

     Whom the gods would punish, they first make completely crazy. That includes us, here in the USA, by the way, but pound-for-pound Dubai is the current champeen.  The monstrosity they built in their waterless convection-oven of a city-state makes Las Vegas look like a mere strip mall in comparison. Throw in a few other affronts to nature, such as an indoor ski "mountain," a beach cooled by an under-the-sand refrigerated pipe network, golf courses that have to be hosed down with acre-feet of desalinated sea-water, and forget about "the gods" — one begins to see the


continue reading


Tags: ,




 
 
 

Zero Hedge

Mapping The Highest And Lowest Incomes Of America's City Slickers

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

All throughout history, people have gone to cities to take advantage of the wealth and business. We wanted to know which metropolitan areas offered the best opportunities for Americans, so we looked at data for all 382 metros.

Want to know where to make the most money? The following map from HowMuch.net shows just where... ...



more from Tyler

Chart School

Happy Thanksgiving :) Friday Should Be A Winner

Courtesy of Declan

Thanksgiving Wednesday was never going to generate an exciting day but it was good to see early week gains retained. Upcoming Thanksgiving Friday is typically a day when Junior traders go wild and decent gains are posted - even if trading volume is light. With last week's lead action I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern was to repeat.

Tech Indices have been leading the charge in recent days and I would look to the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to be the primary chargers on Friday. Technicals are firmly in the green.

The Nasda...



more from Chart School

Phil's Favorites

Retail rage: Why Black Friday leads shoppers to behave badly

 

Retail rage: Why Black Friday leads shoppers to behave badly

Courtesy of Jaeha Lee, North Dakota State University

The manic nature of Black Friday has at times led shoppers to engage in fistfights and other misbehavior in their desperation to snatch up the last ultra-discounted television, computer or pair of pants.

What is it about the day after Thanksgiving – a day meant to celebrate togetherness and shared feasting – that inspires consumers to misbehave?

Fellow researchers Sharron Lennon, Minjeong Kim, Kim Johnson and I have in recent years been exploring the causes of consumer misbehavior on Black Friday, historically ...



more from Ilene

Digital Currencies

Bitcoin: An Unknowable Bubble?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

"Whatever [Bitcoin] is, I missed it... It looks and smells like all the bubbles I have seen throughout history." - billionaire investor Jim Rogers

Authored by Constantin Gurdgiev via True Economics blog,

There is a much-discussed in the crypto-sphere chart making rounds these days, plotting Bitcoin price dynamics against the historical bubbles of the past:

...



more from Bitcoin

Insider Scoop

8 Stocks To Watch For November 22, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM 9 Stock's Moving In Tuesday's After Hours Session Salesforce Falls Despite Q3 Beat The Vetr co...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Biotech

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Courtesy of Todd GoldeUniversity of Florida

Family members often become primary caregivers for loved ones with Alzheimer’s disease. tonkid/Shutterstock.com

Thirty years ago, scientists began to unlock the mysteries regarding the cause of Alzheimer’...



more from Biotech

ValueWalk

Robert Mugabe Under House Arrest, Military Takes Control Of Zimbabwe

By Andjela Radmilac. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Zimbabwe’s head of state, 93-year-old Robert Mugabe, has been placed under house arrest after what seems to be a military coup took place in the nation’s capital.

By U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt/Released [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsRobert Mugabe is safe

Following numerous reports on social media late Thursday night about the increased military presence in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, the country’s military took...



more from ValueWalk

Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



more from Our Members

Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

more from M.T.M.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



more from Promotions

Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



more from Kimble C.S.

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>