Posts Tagged ‘Econompic Data’

Durable Goods “Surprises” to Downside

Durable Goods "Surprises" to Downside

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data

We noted last month that the jump in July durable goods came from a spike in commercial plane purchases, thus no surprise here that durable goods came full circle. Thus our surprise that "real" reporters and/or "real" analysts were "surprised".

ABC news reports:

New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell unexpectedly in August, dropping by their biggest margin in seven months, following a plunge in commercial aircraft orders, the government reported on Friday.

The Commerce Department said durable goods orders tumbled 2.4 percent, the largest decline since January, after rising by a revised 4.8 percent in July.

Analysts polled by Reuters forecast orders rising 0.5 percent in August. Compared with the same period last year, new orders were down 24.9 percent.

durable goods, new orders

Source: Census

 


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Should we be excited about the July new home sales number?

Here’s Richard Green’s take on July’s new home sales numbers.

Should we be excited about the July new home sales number?

home sales, julyCourtesy of Richard’s Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog

The short answer is no. The July number was the worst July number since 1982; it just wasn’t as bad as the June number, which wasn’t as bad as the May number.

Everybody wants to know if we have hit bottom. There are three indicators suggesting we have--and three suggesting not. The good: prices in many markets have fallen below replacement cost (which is a pretty robust fundamental in the absence of population declines). Morris Davis at Wisconsin has shown that rent to price ratios have returned to be more in line with long term ratios, and given how low mortgage rates are, this is comforting. And resale inventories in California have dropped to under 4 months.

On the down side, we may have a lot of foreclosed houses coming at us in the next year. The employment picture is still atrocious. And if rents keep falling, prices will follow.

I would also guess that the first-time homebuyer tax credit is time-shifting sales, rather than raising them for the long term, but we shall see. On the other hand, the nature of investor sales is actually a positive indicator: investors are buying with cash and renting out units at decent rates of return. This is very different from the borrow, buy and flip model from the earlier part of this decade.

FWIW, I would assign a subjective probability of .7 that we are at bottom. On the other hand, around 2005, I assigned a .35 probability that we were about to face serious trouble.

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For your convenience, here’s a reposting of Jake’s chart and analysis at Econompic Data:

New Home Sales in Perspective

Stabilization? Yes.

But, I’m surprised by the surprise. By that I mean did the market think new home sales would keep declining at that torrid pace? If so, that would have meant negative sales at some point in the near future… not exactly possible.

We’re still at levels last seen in 1979. A time at which the U.S. population was roughly 80 million people smaller.

So… good news? Yes, but I wouldn’t argue that this means the worst in overall housing is definitely behind us.

Source: Census

 


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Good News… Housing Starts Down

Good News… Housing Starts Down

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data 

Money CNN details:

Initial construction of U.S. homes edged lower in July following a surge in the previous month, according to government figures released Tuesday. The report had some modest indications of stabilization. "A mixed bag this time around," said Mike Larson, real estate and interest rate analyst at Weiss Research, in a research note.

Housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 581,000, down 1% from a revised 587,000 in June, the Commerce Department said. Economists were expecting housing starts to increase to an annual rate of 599,000 units, according to a consensus estimate gathered by Briefing.com.

THIS IS A GOOD THING…. Why? Let’s go to David Rosenberg.

With every 1 in 8 Americans with a mortgage either in arrears or in the foreclosure process; 1 in 4 homeowners “upside down” on their mortgage; 1 in 6 either unemployed or underemployed; and 1 in every 7 housing unit in the United States sitting vacant right now, it will be interesting to see exactly what sort of recovery we end up with. These numbers we just cited are straight out of the twilight zone.

In other words, why build something we don’t need? The lower the level of housing starts, the faster we work off this excess inventory.

Source: Census


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ValueWalk

FBN Beats CNBC Even During Delivering Alpha Week

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Fox Business Network ratings for the week of September 11th – September  15th.  FBN beat CNBC even during their big annual Delivering Alpha Conference which is one of the biggest investment conferences of the year with Lou Dobbs leading the pack – another big win for FBN – see more details below

FOX BUSINESS NETWORK SWEEPS CNBC IN BUSINESS DAY FOR EIGHTH TIME THIS YEAR

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Phil's Favorites

Can the world's megacities survive the digital age?

 

Can the world's megacities survive the digital age?

Courtesy of Christopher H. Lim, Nanyang Technological University and Vincent Mack, Nanyang Technological University

Today, megacities have become synonymous with economic growth. In both developing and developed countries, cities with populations of 10 million or more account for ...



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Zero Hedge

Hurricane Maria Causes "Widespread Devastation" In Dominica As It Races Toward Puerto Rico

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In less than two days, Hurricane Maria has strengthened from a tropical storm to a powerful category five hurricane, dubbed in no uncertain terms as "catastrophic" by the NHC. Though it has been downgraded to a category 4 overnight, the storm made landfall on the tiny Caribbean island of Dominica, leaving it utterly “devastated,” according to the island’s prime minister.

...



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Chart School

Semiconductors Breakout

Courtesy of Declan.

It was somewhat disappointing not to see the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 make the break from resistance. However, the Semiconductor index did manage a breakout of 1,150. There was some weakness into the close but the fact the bearish engulfing pattern has been negated means the bearish overhang created by this pattern has been consumed.


The Russell 2000 made respectable gains as it works towards July highs. I would expect a reversal off 1,450 resistance but if such losses can hold above 1,430 then it will set up a bullish handle f...

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Insider Scoop

Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For September 18, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Top Upgrades
  • RBC Capital upgraded Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) from Sector Perform to Outperform. Applied Materials shares gained 0.19 percent to close at $47.14 on Friday.
  • UBS upgraded Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) from Neutral to Buy. Caterpillar shares rose 1.51 percent to $123.20 in pre-market trading.
  • William Blair upgraded Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ARWR) from Market Perform to Outperform. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals share...


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Digital Currencies

Comparing Bitcoin, Ether, & Other Cryptos

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you’re probably aware that we’re in the middle of a cryptocurrency explosion. In one year, the value of all currencies increased a staggering 1,466% – and newer coins like Ethereum have even joined Bitcoin in gaining some mainstream acceptance.

And while people like Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan and famed value investor Howard Marks have been extremely critical of cryptocurrencies as of late, many other investors are continuing to ride the wave. As Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins has noted in the past, ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Can low doses of chemicals affect your health? A new report weighs the evidence

Courtesy of Rachel ShafferUniversity of Washington

Assessing the data. LightField Studios/shutterstock.com

Toxicology’s founding father, Paracelsus, is famous for proclaiming that “...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now (updated)

 

Why we need to act on climate change now (updated 9-13-17)

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Updated in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma on September 13 , 2017.

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, he devotes a chapter&nbs...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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