Posts Tagged ‘ECRI index’

Albert Edwards Sees Stocks Under March Lows As Bond Yield Go Below 2%

Albert Edwards Sees Stocks Under March Lows As Bond Yield Go Below 2%

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Just in case there was any confusion which way SocGen’s Albert Edwards may be leaning after the recent however many percent rally in the AUDJPY, sometimes known affectionately as stocks, it is hereby resolved: "My views on the outlook could not be clearer. They may be wrong, but at least they are clear. We still call for sub-2% 10y bond yields and equities below March 2009 lows." In other words, according to AE the market is well over 50% overvalued.

In a surprisingly pithy note, the strategist reverts back to his favorite formulation of the economic New Normal, which he calls the Ice Age, and specifically the current phase which he compares to the period where the Nikkei used to enjoy 40-50% rallies on no news, even as the general market continued its long term collapse over a span of 20 years:

We are at the most dangerous stage in the Ice Age – the ‘post-bubble cycle’. For although it is clear that leading indicators have turned downwards, the choir of sell-side sirens is singing its song of reassurance. The lesson from Japan was that once the cyclical rally is over, any downturn in the leading indicators should find you stuffing beeswax in your ears to block out that lilting melody so as to avoid the jagged rocks of recession.

In addition to remarking on the recession certainty now implied by the ECRI index (which we are confident will post an uptick this Friday just to plant some seeds of doubt in all those who look to forward looking instead of lagging indicators, A.E. notes the change in analyst optimism, which is also signifying a recessionary advent:


Although the closely watched ECRI weekly leading indicator (WLI) is now in the ?recession? zone, other leading indicators such as the OECD and Conference Board are weakening at a far more moderate, reassuring pace. Yet one of our favourites and most over-looked of leading indicators is the change in analyst optimism. Like the ECRI WLI this too is in recession territory and suggests the OECD and Conference Board measures will also be soon! Appealing as the siren song is, we should all know full well that the sell-side will only call the recession long after it has begun and

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Zero Hedge

Barry Diller: "If Trump Wins I'll Move Out Of The Country"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

IAC/Interactive Chairman Barry Diller spoke with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker about many things including the state of the TV industry, Tinder, and Jack Dorsey at the Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit in New York today. However, the one thing that caught our attention was the prominent Democrat's characterization of what he would do if Donald Trump wins the presidential election.

His quote:

"If Donald Trump doesn’t fall, I'll either move out of the country or join the resistance. I just think it's a phenomenon of reality television as politics and I think that that is how it started. Reality television, as you all know, is based on conflict. All he is is about conflict and it's all abou...

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Chart School

Markets Hold Bulk of Gains

Courtesy of Declan.

Most of the gains were posted pre-market, but bulls were able to hold gains after a couple of days of bullish strength.

The S&P is on course to finish with a spinning top doji. The 50-day MA is just overhead and close to 2,000 psychological resistance. Technicals are close to turning net bullish.

The Nasdaq closed above 20-day MA and has room to run to overhead resistance. Like the S&P, it 's close to turning net bullish technically. Today was a typical consolidation, which given recent price action should be viewed as bullish.


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Phil's Favorites

The Phrase That Launches Recessions

Courtesy of Pater Tenenbrarum of Acting Man

It Can’t Get Any Worse?

On Friday, shortly after the release of the payrolls report, we asked half in jest whether the time had finally come for the market to interpret bad news as bad news, and not as an opportunity to speculate on more central bank largesse. As someone remarked to us later: “You had to ask”.

Photo credit: Paul Cross

Apparently a slightly later released news item informing us that “...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Yuan Overtakes Yen as World's Fourth Most-Used Payments Currency (Bloomberg)

China’s yuan overtook Japan’s yen to become the fourth most-used currency for global payments, shrugging off a surprise devaluation to rise to its highest ranking ever and boosting its claim for reserve status.

Volkswagen will put nonessential projects, investments under review (Market Watch)

Volkswagen AG will put all nonessential projects and investments under review as it contends with the ...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Germany (DAX)- At critical resistance point, will impact S&P 500

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

In our opinions the German stock market (DAX) is very important on a global scale. We feel its a driving force for many stock markets around the world.

This leader finds itself at very important price point at this time, which could become a high risk price point.


The DAX has remained inside of clean rising channel since the 2011 lows. It hit the top of its channel earlier this year, attempting a breakout that failed and a 20%+&#...

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Insider Scoop

FBR Met With Juno's Management; Here's What Happened

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related JUNO Amgen And Biogen Lead Short Interest Surge In Biotechs Biotech Expert Talks Potential M&A Activity, Partnerships And Women's Health
  • The share price of Juno Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: JUNO) has risen 20.41 percent over the past month, touching a high of $43.59 on October 5.
  • Ed White of FBR & Co has maintained an Outperform rating on the company, with a pric... more from Insider


Sector Detector: Searching for solid support in the face of global headwinds

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Uncertainty about the health of the global economy led investors to flee U.S. equities during Q3, primarily driven by worries about China's growth prospects and the Federal Reserve’s decision to not raise rates. Sure, there are plenty of real and perceived headwinds, but on balance it seems that a recession here at home is not in the cards. And when you consider sentiment and the technical picture, it appears that a continuation of Friday’s bounce is in store. The question remains as to whether the seasonally strong Q4 will be able to propel the bulls through levels of resistance that have built up.

In this weekly update, I give my view o...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 5th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Some Hedge Funds "Hedged" During Stock Market Sell Off, Others Not As Risk Focused

By Mark Melin. Originally published at ValueWalk.

With the VIX index jumping 120 percent on a weekly basis, the most in its history, and with the index measuring volatility or "fear" up near 47 percent on the day, one might think professional investors might be concerned. While the sell off did surprise some, certain hedge fund managers have started to dip their toes in the water to buy stocks they have on their accumulation list, while other algorithmic strategies are actually prospering in this volatile but generally consistently trending market.

Stock market sell off surprises some while others were prepared and are hedged prospering

While so...

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Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...

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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 


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Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene


The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

Thank you for you time!

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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