Posts Tagged ‘emotions’

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EXECUTING A PLANNED METHODOLOGY

EXECUTING A PLANNED METHODOLOGY

Courtesy of David, THE CROSSHAIRS TRADER

High angle view of a businessman holding a paper and thinking Model Release: Yes Property Release: NA

My friend and fellow trader Derek Hernquist over at Integrative Capital invited me to attend a meeting last night.  The speaker was Chuck Dukas of TRENDadvisor.  I won’t discuss here is methodology but instead his understanding of what makes a trader successful, no matter the methodology.   With over 25 years of experience trading and working with the most successful traders on the Street I believe what he has to say is right on target.  In fact, I would say his wisdom is IN THE CROSSHAIRS.  Mr Dukas shared three simple, basic elements for long term trading success and here they are:

1. Develop a solid METHODOLOGY:  instead of trading one pattern one day and another the next or trading off pure emotion or what the next guru preaches simply find ONE methodology that has been proven to work over time and stick with it.  It is boringly simple and is not for the Las Vegas inclined.  According to Dukas it is vitally important that a trader understand the importance of “trading what you see, not what you feel or think.”  In other words, a simple, well-thought out trading methodology will trump emotional feelings every time.  If the market is bullish then trade accordingly, in spite of feeling or thinking that the market should be bearish.  Without a methodology there is nothing but distorted psychology and arrogant hubris.  Unless you have enough money to trade your feelings then you best trade a methodology.

2.  Have a PLAN on how to trade the METHODOLOGY:  it is one thing to have a methodology and quite another to have a planned methodology.  Think of it this way: a football team puts together a set of plays, a “methodology” that it will use to take advantage of its opponent’s weaknesses and ultimately win the game.  This team will run a particular play within this methodology depending on the circumstances.  If it is third down and 20 yards to go, the plan will call for a long pass against a weak defender: not a quarterback sneak up the middle.  The same with a trading PLAN.  Your pattern, your edge, may…
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Phil's Favorites

Brain or Machine? Investing Holy Grail

 

Brain or Machine? Investing Holy Grail

Courtesy of Wade of Investing Caffeine

Source: Photobucket

Paul Meehl was a versatile academic who held numerous faculty positions, covering the diverse disciplines of psychology, law, psychiatry, neurology, and yes, even philosophy. The crux of his research was focused on how well clinical analysis fared versus statistical analysis. Or in other words, he looked to answer the controversial question, “What is a better predictor of outcomes, a brain or an equation?” His conclusion was straightforward – mechanical methods using quantitative measures are much...



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Zero Hedge

As Project Veritas Exposes "DisruptJ20" Plot To Cause Inauguration Chaos, Deplorables Out Organizer As Potential #PizzaGate Pedo

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Earlier today, investigative journalist James O'Keefe of Project Veritas released his second undercover exposé of the "DC Anti-facist Coalition," which is using hashtag #DisruptJ20 in their plot to disrupt the Inauguration and related events. After successfully infiltrating the anarchist Democrat movement, O'Keefe's team recorded "DisruptJ20" organizers ...



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ValueWalk

Jensen Quality Growth Fund 4Q16 Commentary

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Jensen Quality Growth Fund commentary for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2016.

H/T Dataroma

The Jensen Investment Philosophy

A consistent, sustainable investment process is vital to weathering all economic climates. The strength of our investment philosophy is based on an unwavering commitment to investing in quality businesses. We believe these quality companies possess sustainable competitive advantages, creating value as profitable businesses that can, over time, provide attractive returns with less risk than the overall-market.

We are extremely-selective.

From a pool of over 5,000publicly-traded

U.S. companies, fewer than 250 companies meet our initial threshold for inclus...



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Chart School

Russell 2000 Breaks Lower

Courtesy of Declan.

In the end, it was Theresa May and not Trump which saw the Russell 2000 cut through support and confirm the earlier 'bull trap'.  This change coincided with a 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI. Only stochastics are hanging on to its 'buy' signal.


The S&P experienced heavier volume distribution, but there wasn't a big percentage loss, nor was there a break from the consolidation range

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Dollar Falls With U.S. Yields as Brexit Concern Spurs Safety Bid (Bloomberg)

The dollar fell as Treasury yields declined following a long weekend with investors seeking safety amid concern the U.K. is heading for a so-called hard Brexit.

European Stocks Fall as Investors Brace for May’s Brexit Speech (Bloomberg)

European stocks fell on Tuesday, losing ground for a second day, as investors awaited U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech in which she is set to detail her plan for Brexit....



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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar potentially topping out here!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The US Dollar has been moving higher for nearly a decade, as the trend is up. Could the trend be changing? Could King Dollar loose strength here? If King Dollar would turn lower, what opportunities will present themselves?

Below looks at a chart of the US Dollar over the past 30-years, on a “Monthly Hi/Lo/Closing” basis-

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The US Dollar finds itself in an uptrend and testing the underside of dual resistance at (1). With the trend being up, if King ...



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Members' Corner

Same Time Last Year?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

In January 2016, as the Chinese stock market was taking a dip along with the SP500, Fed officials made some choice comments. One year later we review..

"To me, it is not as surprising than maybe to some commentators that we're seeing a weaker data in terms of manufacturing. This seems to be part of a process that's been going on in the last couple of years. We have been seeing pretty good data out of China on consumer spending in some of the other areas, so I'm not as concerned about that." – Jan 4, 2016 - SF Fed President John Williams
...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of January 16th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

China's Bitcoin Exchanges Suspend Margin Trading

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

China's bitcoin traders who use the most popular bitcoin exchange not only in China, but also the entire world, BTCChina, were met with an unexpected warning on Friday:

Starting from January 12th, 2017, BTCChina has suspended margin loan service. If you have any questions, please contact Customer Service: support@btcc.com.

BTCChina, which commands over 37% of global bitcoin trading...

... wasn't alone.

Fo...



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Mapping The Market

If we try it enough, it will work.

Via Jean-Luc

Brownback wants Trump to emulate what he did in Kansas because it worked so well:

Sam Brownback Calls on Donald Trump to Mimic His Kansas Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN and  WILL CONNORS

Sam Brownback, the Kansas governor whose tax cuts brought him political turmoil, recurring budget holes and sparse evidence of economic success, has a message for President-elect Donald Trump: Do what I did.

In 2013, Mr. Brownback set out to create a lean, business-friendly government in his state that other Republicans could replicate. He now faces a $350 million deficit when the Kansas legislature convenes in January and projections of a larger one in 2018. The state’s economy is flat and his party is fractured...

...

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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Promotions

Phil's Stock World's Las Vegas Conference!

 

Come join us for the Phil's Stock World's Conference in Las Vegas!

Date:  Sunday, Feb 12, 2017 and Monday Feb 13, 2017.            

Beginning Time:  8:00 am Sunday morning

Location: Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas

Notes

Caesar's has tentatively offered us rooms for $189 on Saturday night and $129 for Sunday night. However, we have to sign the contract ASAP. We need at least 10 people to pay me via Paypal or we may lose the best rate for the rooms. (Once we are guaranteed ten attendees, I will put up instructions to call the hotel for individual rooms.)

The more people who sign up,...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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