Posts Tagged ‘Eric Falkenstein’

Chief Economists are for PR

Another bad review for the Blinder and Zandi article – wrong and not only that, the economic models are a total waste of time. (For more about Eric Falkenstein and his experience with IP litigation, read our interview from last September,  The Limits of Intellectual Property.) – Ilene 

Chief Economists are for PR

Courtesy of Eric Falkenstein at Falkenblog 

Ezra Klein has a post promoting Blinder and Zandi’s model that shows massive good effects from more government deficit spending. As the model is a 1970′s vintage approach, an approach that attracted the nations best minds for decades, and was abandoned because they don’t work better than rather simple alternatives (eg, a vector autoregression of GDP, Fed Funds, and the Baa-Aaa spread). 

I found this amusing because it highlights that journalists grab whatever science supports their ends. The details are not important, you have a professor with lots of publications, he has a complicated scientific argument, it makes you an objective, rational journalist. He even quotes Narayana Kocherlakota saying macro models work, not realizing the Kocherlakota was actually talking about a very different class of models than the one Blinder and Zandi use, and forgetting that of course a macroeconomist would say macro theory works.

At one point, Klein reaches for this argument for believing in their results:

It’s also worth noting that the private sector relies extensively on these models, and it would be odd for them to give Moody’s all that money if they thought there was no predictive value.

Presumably, he infers that as Zandi works for Moody’s, his results are somehow used by Moody’s. They are, but not in the way he thinks. I used to work at Moody’s. Moody’s does not make money off their macro economic opinions, they make money issuing ratings on debt, something they are paid well for. The macro view is alluded to in any analyst opinion, but even within Moody’s it’s not like the analysts think their economist knows better than others. CNBC and the outlets need someone to comment on macroeconomic topics, so having a full time economist discuss these things makes sense. Yet, remember, economists can’t predict business cycles, or explain why Mexico is poor, while the US is rich. Sure, people have theories, but there’s no consensus, highlighting that macroeconomists don’t understand the big issues on their plate. 

I worked directly for Chief Economists at two major…
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The Limits of Intellectual Property

Telluride Asset Management LLC v. Eric Falkenstein has been settled but the pain lingered on for many years. I learned about the case recently while reading Eric’s blog and wanted to learn more. Eric kindly agreed to share his experiences in an exclusive interview, and over the last week has been educating me in trade secrets and intellectual property law. 

The Limits of Intellectual Property

Are There Any in the Hedge Fund World?

By Ilene

So who is Eric Falkenstein and how did he become an ex-portfolio manager with no portfolio to manage? 

Eric graduated from Northwestern with a PhD in economics and wrote his dissertation on cross sectional stock returns and volatility.  Prior to joining Telluride as a hedge fund manager in 2004, he had been using strategies that drew upon his education, previous work running his own fund and a fund, Deephaven.
 
Eric resigned his position at Telluride in September, 2006. Several months later, Telluride initiated a lawsuit claiming that strategies used by Eric belonged to Telluride. The claims in the lawsuit would require a court to determine the nature of the components of the strategy Eric had been using and decide who owned them. This is more complicated than it may appear.
 
Consider this analogy.  Baker E goes to work baking sugar cookies for Bakery B.  E, who’s been a baker for ten years, has a favorite recipe calling for flour, butter, sugar, eggs and baking soda.  During the next few years, E tinkers with the ratios of ingredients and experiments with chocolate frosting and colorful sprinkles, but never deviates significantly from the basic recipe.
 
Then one day, Baker E decides to leave Bakery B and open a Cookie Shoppe C in another town.  Bakery B initiates legal action to prevent E from operating C, arguing that E’s cookie recipe will inevitably be derived from privileged information gained while working for B.
 
In response, Baker E argues that his recipe is a standard sugar cookie recipe, using common ingredients. He argues that B cannot own the sugar cookie constituents (sugar, flour, butter, etc.), and that B needs to define the specific recipe in its complaint. Bakery B argues they will provide that, after full discovery has been completed (which could be a few years).
 
And so began Eric's adventure into IP law.  
 
In a hedge fund “trade secret” case, the “ingredients” are variables used to construct


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ValueWalk

It's Not Just Prices That Crash, It's Also Confidence in Our Political and Economic Institutions

By robbennett. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Valuation-Informed Indexing #314

by Rob Bennett

What happens in the economy affects what happens in politics. And what happens in the stock market affects what happens in the economy. So what happens in the stock market affects what happens in politics. It’s all connected.

We recognize this only to a limited extent in our discussions of economics, political and investing issues. Just about everyone agrees that bad economic times put political incumbents in danger. And most would say that big political developments like the Brexit vote can produce severe economic fallout. But the general inclination is to put investing issues in a box, to act as if the question of how people should go about financing their retirements is a separate matter from how they should go about choosing leaders to run t...



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Zero Hedge

"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A rally in global risk that started during last night's first presidential debate on the market's take that Hillary Clinton came out on top in the first head-to-head between the two candidates fizzled, and what was a 0.6% jump in futures faded to only a 0.2% rebound after news that the DOJ is assessing how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen (-3.8%) over emissions-cheating "...



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Phil's Favorites

Who Won the Debate? My View and Some Surprising Polls

Courtesy of Mish.

I thought Trump did poorly.

Trump missed a chance to go after Hillary about Libya, especially her statement “we came, we saw, he died” in which she bragged about killing Gaddafi. Libya erupted in a civil war following that event and terrorists are running the country. Well done Hillary.

Trump also missed a chance to attack the Clinton Foundation.

Trump faced three gotcha questions, and Hillary zero. On those grounds, the debate was quite a bit biased. Still, Trump missed a golden opportunity on some of the questions.

On the nuclear war issue, Trump should have commented “Hillary has supported every war every time.”

On the Birther issue, he simply should have stated, “I changed my mind. If we saw the birth certificate soone...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

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Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!



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Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Asia stocks, Mexico peso bounce as markets see Clinton as winner of debate (Reuters)

Asian shares recovered and the Mexican peso surged on Tuesday as investors seemed to award the first U.S. presidential debate to Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump.

Chinese Exports Slow Their Decline; Imports Increase (The Wall Street Journal)

BEIJING—Chinese exports fell again in August as weak demand ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Leading indicator testing key breakout level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The German Stock Market has been a quality leader in both directions the past few years. Below looks at why one might want to keep a “close eye” on this key global stock index, to see if it can hop over a important breakout level.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Similar to the S&P 500 and many stock indices in the states, the DAX index remains inside of a uniform rising 6-year channel, since the 2009 lows.

Th...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Mapping The Market

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

Via Jean-Luc:

"When you let the free market take over, the little people get screwed and bankers get rich. Chile tried privatizing retirement plans and surprise, surprise, fund manager ate the profits… Pretty sure the results would be the same here..."  ~ Jean-Luc

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

By KEVIN DRUM, Mother Jones

Among free-market fans, Chile's privatized pension plan has long been held up as a model for us to follow. The problem, as the Financial Times notes today, is ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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