Posts Tagged ‘Eric Falkenstein’

Chief Economists are for PR

Another bad review for the Blinder and Zandi article – wrong and not only that, the economic models are a total waste of time. (For more about Eric Falkenstein and his experience with IP litigation, read our interview from last September,  The Limits of Intellectual Property.) – Ilene 

Chief Economists are for PR

Courtesy of Eric Falkenstein at Falkenblog 

Ezra Klein has a post promoting Blinder and Zandi’s model that shows massive good effects from more government deficit spending. As the model is a 1970′s vintage approach, an approach that attracted the nations best minds for decades, and was abandoned because they don’t work better than rather simple alternatives (eg, a vector autoregression of GDP, Fed Funds, and the Baa-Aaa spread). 

I found this amusing because it highlights that journalists grab whatever science supports their ends. The details are not important, you have a professor with lots of publications, he has a complicated scientific argument, it makes you an objective, rational journalist. He even quotes Narayana Kocherlakota saying macro models work, not realizing the Kocherlakota was actually talking about a very different class of models than the one Blinder and Zandi use, and forgetting that of course a macroeconomist would say macro theory works.

At one point, Klein reaches for this argument for believing in their results:

It’s also worth noting that the private sector relies extensively on these models, and it would be odd for them to give Moody’s all that money if they thought there was no predictive value.

Presumably, he infers that as Zandi works for Moody’s, his results are somehow used by Moody’s. They are, but not in the way he thinks. I used to work at Moody’s. Moody’s does not make money off their macro economic opinions, they make money issuing ratings on debt, something they are paid well for. The macro view is alluded to in any analyst opinion, but even within Moody’s it’s not like the analysts think their economist knows better than others. CNBC and the outlets need someone to comment on macroeconomic topics, so having a full time economist discuss these things makes sense. Yet, remember, economists can’t predict business cycles, or explain why Mexico is poor, while the US is rich. Sure, people have theories, but there’s no consensus, highlighting that macroeconomists don’t understand the big issues on their plate. 

I worked directly for Chief Economists at two major…
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The Limits of Intellectual Property

Telluride Asset Management LLC v. Eric Falkenstein has been settled but the pain lingered on for many years. I learned about the case recently while reading Eric’s blog and wanted to learn more. Eric kindly agreed to share his experiences in an exclusive interview, and over the last week has been educating me in trade secrets and intellectual property law. 

The Limits of Intellectual Property

Are There Any in the Hedge Fund World?

By Ilene

So who is Eric Falkenstein and how did he become an ex-portfolio manager with no portfolio to manage? 

Eric graduated from Northwestern with a PhD in economics and wrote his dissertation on cross sectional stock returns and volatility.  Prior to joining Telluride as a hedge fund manager in 2004, he had been using strategies that drew upon his education, previous work running his own fund and a fund, Deephaven.
 
Eric resigned his position at Telluride in September, 2006. Several months later, Telluride initiated a lawsuit claiming that strategies used by Eric belonged to Telluride. The claims in the lawsuit would require a court to determine the nature of the components of the strategy Eric had been using and decide who owned them. This is more complicated than it may appear.
 
Consider this analogy.  Baker E goes to work baking sugar cookies for Bakery B.  E, who’s been a baker for ten years, has a favorite recipe calling for flour, butter, sugar, eggs and baking soda.  During the next few years, E tinkers with the ratios of ingredients and experiments with chocolate frosting and colorful sprinkles, but never deviates significantly from the basic recipe.
 
Then one day, Baker E decides to leave Bakery B and open a Cookie Shoppe C in another town.  Bakery B initiates legal action to prevent E from operating C, arguing that E’s cookie recipe will inevitably be derived from privileged information gained while working for B.
 
In response, Baker E argues that his recipe is a standard sugar cookie recipe, using common ingredients. He argues that B cannot own the sugar cookie constituents (sugar, flour, butter, etc.), and that B needs to define the specific recipe in its complaint. Bakery B argues they will provide that, after full discovery has been completed (which could be a few years).
 
And so began Eric's adventure into IP law.  
 
In a hedge fund “trade secret” case, the “ingredients” are variables used to construct


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Zero Hedge

Debt, Deficits & Economic Warnings

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

While the world has been focused on the Federal Reserve, the markets, and the upcoming election, few have noticed the expansion of the deficit in recent months which is now in excess of $667 billion up from a recent low of $530 billion. The chart below shows the history of U.S. surplus/deficit:

During the financial crisis, the deficit ballooned to a record of $1.35 trillion ...



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Chart School

Little Change

Courtesy of Declan.

I'm waiting for bears to step in and reverse the nascent breakout but it hasn't happened yet. The intraday range was tight and the change relative to yesterday was small. This left little to add.

The S&P still has three 'sell' triggers in MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX to work off before the rally resumes.


The Nasdaq is creating a mini-bear flag, although confirmation will require a single day loss of at least 1%. It has a more solid technical picture than the S&P.

...

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ValueWalk

Michael Mauboussin - Market Myths And Market Reality

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Michael Mauboussin – Market Myths And Market Reality

Michael Mauboussin is the author of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (Harvard Business Review Press, 2012), Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition (Harvard Business Press, 2009) and ...



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Phil's Favorites

A Two-Bar Pattern that Points to Trade Setups

 

A Two-Bar Pattern that Points to Trade Setups

By Elliott Wave International

Some people like to get outside on the weekends, maybe playing tennis or working in the yard. Some people like to visit their friends or cook a big meal or go out to see a movie. And some people who are passionate about their work -- such as Elliott Wave International's futures analyst Jeffrey Kennedy -- like to stare at hundreds of price charts on their computer screen to find patterns that point to trade setups. We used to worry for his health but not anymore, because he's been doing it for years and he comes up with some neat stuff. A case in point is his discovery of a two-bar pattern that he named the Popgun. Find out more in this excerpt from the Club EWI eBoo...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Fed’s Fischer Says Negative Rates Seem to Work in Today’s World (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said negative interest rates seem to be working in other countries, while reinforcing that they aren’t on the table in the U.S.

French Trade Minister Says U.S. Talks Dead as TTIP Wobbles (Bloomberg)

France&rsq...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

US Dollar/Yen testing important support zone

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The US Dollar/Yen is facing a trio of potential support lines at this time with few people bullish the US$/Yen at Stocktwits. What happens at this potential support zone, could well impact the Risk On trade from now until year end.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The trend in the US$/Yen remains down for the past few months, as the YEN has been stronger than the US$. The US$/YEN remains inside of a steep falling channel over the past 10-months.

The bottom of this steep falling channel and two ot...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio -week of August 29th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust

 

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg

Excerpt:

Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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