The following charts are taken from my new weekly “Intermarket Technical Report,” which goes into greater detail in discussing the current and potential future price structure for crude oil. For now, let’s take a look at the Monthly and Weekly timeframe charts to see EMA and Fibonacci confluence resistance overhead.
Crude Oil Monthly Structure
Taking a quick look, we see a dominant Elliott Wave count, which places us either at the final stages of Corrective Wave B up, or the beginning stages possibly of Wave C down which could eventually target the $35 lows over the next few months, particularly if the S&P 500 falls to test its lows.
I wanted to highlight the confluence levels (click for larger chart) about the $70 to $75 level.
First, we see the 50 week EMA at $70.14 and the 20 week EMA at $72.11. With the scale so large, this $2.00 zone would be considered an EMA confluence zone to watch – we’ll split the difference and call $71.00 as significant resistance.
Just above that is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the closing high to the recent 2009 lows. This retracement price comes in at $75.50.
Let’s see what the weekly structure shows.
Crude Oil Weekly Structure
We now see the 200 week SMA residing at $74.80, which is serving as well as resistance.
Price is currently supporting on the 50 week EMA at $66.88, so watch closely if this level is broken – a break of $68.00 would almost certainly set up a test of the rising 20 week EMA at $61.00.
Any bearish view would be negated with a close above $75 and especially $80, but for now, there appears to be more confluence overhead resistance than support, so let’s watch the downside risk for now.
For more analysis of Crude Oil (this is just a sample) as well as a multi-timeframe view (Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts) of the 10-Year Notes, S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil, and US Dollar Index, please check out my new subscription weekly service “Weekly Intermarket Technical Analysis” (full information and two samples are provided with the link).
I’ve been doing this analysis privately and for mentorship clients, and I’ve made it more formal/informative and am proud to offer…
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
Venture capital risktaking and burn rates on cash are at levels that exceed the technology bubble in 1999. Companies that haven't made a dime, and perhaps never will, have valuations of $10 billion more.
Curiously, it' venture capitalist Bill Gurley who Sounds Alarm on Startup Investing in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. WSJ: Mr. Gurley, who often voices his opinions on his blog, Above the Crowd, sat down with The Wall Street Journal as part of a Journal event series called "Tech Under the Hood." The investor in Uber, Zillow, OpenTable and other Web startups spoke on a wide range of topics. What follows is an edited excerpt of a conversation specifically abo...
Most US policymakers believe that capital comes from debt issued by the Fed and its member banks; most other big debtor countries agree (i.e. Japan). On the other hand, policymakers of the world’s biggest creditor nations (led by China) believe that real capital is the surplus produced from production and trade (which has been mainly accumulated in US dollars and ultimately backs the US dollar as the primary reserve currency).
For the past 7-12 years the two conflicting ideas about cap...
What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013. Last year the median (middle) household income was $51,939 -- a tiny increase of 0.3% 2012. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.
My study of the Census Bureau's historical data shows a 627% growth in median household incomes from 1967 through 2013. The ride has been bumpy, but it equates to a 4.41% annualized growth rate. Sounds impressive, but if you adjust for inflation using the Census Bureau's method, that nominal 627% total growth shr...
Analysts at Credit Suisse upgraded shares of Tableau Software Inc (NYSE: DATA) from Neutral to Outperform and raised the price target from $87.50 to $100.00 Tuesday.
Philip Winslow is confident in Tableau’s ability to maintain healthy revenue growth.
Analysts also identify that the company has a technology advantage in its highly-intuitive, visual-based core BI capabilities. Winslow stated, “ Tableau's development strategy positions the company to (1) continue to expand the market for business intelligence software and (2) increasingly gain market share in large enterprise deployments.”
Tableau is also experiencing International expansion momentum. Analysts view Internet expansion for Tableau as “significant” given that 5...
If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Bill Gates all got together in a room with the task of building the most accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.
Well, I hate to break it to you… they never got around to building it, but my colleagues at Market Tamer did.
Although the stock market displayed weakness last week as I suggested it would, bulls aren’t going down easily. In fact, they’re going down swinging, absorbing most of the blows delivered by hesitant bears. Despite holding up admirably when weakness was both expected and warranted, and although I still see higher highs ahead, I am still not convinced that we have seen the ultimate lows for this pullback. A number of signs point to more weakness ahead.
In this weekly update, I give my view of the current market environment, offer a technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart, review our weekly fundamentals-based SectorCast rankings of the ten U.S. business sectors, and then offer up some actionable trading ideas, including a sector rotation strategy using ETFs and an enhanced version using top-r...
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The CBOE Vix Index is in positive territory on Friday morning as shares in the S&P 500 Index move slightly lower. Currently the VIX is up roughly 2.75% on the session at 13.16 as of 11:35 am ET. Earlier in the session big prints in October expiry call options caught our attention as one large options market participants appears to have purchased roughly 106,000 of the Oct 22.0 strike calls for a premium of around $0.45 each. The VIX has not topped 22.0 since the end of 2012, but it would not take such a dramatic move in the spot index in order to lift premium on the contracts. The far out-of-the-money calls would likely increase in value in the event that S&P500 Index stocks slip in the near term. The VIX traded up to a 52-week high of 21.48 back in February. Next week’s release of the FOMC meeting minutes f...
Despite the various opinions on Bitcoin, there is no question as to its ultimate value: its ability to bypass government restrictions, including economic embargoes and capital controls, to transmit quasi-anonymous money to anyone anywhere.
Opinions differ as to what constitutes "money."
The English word "money" derives from the Latin word "moneta," which means to "mint." Historically, "money" was minted in the form of precious metals, most notably gold and silver. Minted metal was considered "money" because it possessed luster, was scarce, and had perceive...
Author Helen Davis Chaitman is a nationally recognized litigator with a diverse trial practice in the areas of lender liability, bankruptcy, bank fraud, RICO, professional malpractice, trusts and estates, and white collar defense. In 1995, Ms. Chaitman was named one of the nation's top ten litigators by the National Law Journal for a jury verdict she obtained in an accountants' malpractice case. Ms. Chaitman is the author of The Law of Lender Liability (Warren, Gorham & Lamont 1990)... Since early 2009, Ms. Chaitman has been an outspoken advocate for investors in Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (more here).
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Well PSW Subscribers....I am still here, barely. From my last post a few months ago to now, nothing has changed much, but there are a few bargins out there that as investors, should be put on the watch list (again) and if so desired....buy a small amount.
First, the media is on a tear against biotechs/pharma, ripping companies for their drug prices. Gilead's HepC drug, Sovaldi, is priced at $84K for the 12-week treatment. Pundits were screaming bloody murder that it was a total rip off, but when one investigates the other drugs out there, and the consequences of not taking Sovaldi vs. another drug combinations, then things become clearer. For instance, Olysio (JNJ) is about $66,000 for a 12-week treatment, but is approved for fewer types of patients AND...
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