Posts Tagged ‘Fibonacci retracement’

Has a Top Formed in Crude Oil?

Has a Top Formed in Crude Oil? Monthly and Weekly View

Courtesy of Corey at Afraid To Trade

The following charts are taken from my new weekly “Intermarket Technical Report,” which goes into greater detail in discussing the current and potential future price structure for crude oil.  For now, let’s take a look at the Monthly and Weekly timeframe charts to see EMA and Fibonacci confluence resistance overhead.

Crude Oil Monthly Structure

Crude Oil Monthly Structure

Taking a quick look, we see a dominant Elliott Wave count, which places us either at the final stages of Corrective Wave B up, or the beginning stages possibly of Wave C down which could eventually target the $35 lows over the next few months, particularly if the S&P 500 falls to test its lows.

I wanted to highlight the confluence levels (click for larger chart) about the $70 to $75 level.

First, we see the 50 week EMA at $70.14 and the 20 week EMA at $72.11.  With the scale so large, this $2.00 zone would be considered an EMA confluence zone to watch – we’ll split the difference and call $71.00 as significant resistance.

Just above that is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the closing high to the recent 2009 lows.  This retracement price comes in at $75.50.

Let’s see what the weekly structure shows.

Crude Oil Weekly Structure

Crude Oil Weekly Structure

We now see the 200 week SMA residing at $74.80, which is serving as well as resistance.

Price is currently supporting on the 50 week EMA at $66.88, so watch closely if this level is broken – a break of $68.00 would almost certainly set up a test of the rising 20 week EMA at $61.00.

Any bearish view would be negated with a close above $75 and especially $80, but for now, there appears to be more confluence overhead resistance than support, so let’s watch the downside risk for now.

For more analysis of Crude Oil (this is just a sample) as well as a multi-timeframe view (Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts) of the 10-Year Notes, S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil, and US Dollar Index, please check out my new subscription weekly service “Weekly Intermarket Technical Analysis” (full information and two samples are provided with the link).

I’ve been doing this analysis privately and for mentorship clients, and I’ve made it more formal/informative and am proud to offer…
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Zero Hedge

The Central Bankers Dilemma: The Pendulum's Back Swing

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Submitted by Mark St. Cyr

The Central Bankers Dilemma: The Pendulum’s Back Swing

Today, July 5th, a referendum is to be voted on in Greece as to whether they should vote “Yes” for the austerity measures demanded by the bankers of the Euro Zone (EZ.) Or, vote “No” against such demands. Where a “no” vote will in effect all but ensure an exit from it (whether voluntarily or not.) How this vote will come down no one knows. For when a populace is scared, many tim...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges After Initial Forecasts Show "No" Vote Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the early bitcoin markets are an indication of what will happen once New Zealand opens for illiquid FX trade, it will be a risk off kinda day.

And that doesn't even take into account the pandemonium that will be unleashed in China in a few hours after the PBOC just went all-in to halt the crashing stock market. What if it fails to get a green close before tomorrow's US open?

Source: ...



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Phil's Favorites

Panic: China Central Bank Steps In To Bailout Stocks

As Greece votes 'No' on Sunday's Referendum, China is experiencing its own troubles. The popping of the Chinese equity bubble has prompted the People's Bank of China to step in and provide "liquidity support" to brokerages to keep stock prices from falling further. In essence, the "PBoC is now in the business of financing leveraged stock buying."  

Panic: China Central Bank Steps In To Bailout Stocks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge

China’s equity miracle — the one bright spot that has so far served to distract the masses from rapidly decelerating economic growth and a bursting real estate bubble &mdash...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

China's slowdown is bad news for the world's big industrial exporters (Business Insider)

China's slowing economy is a serious concern for the economies of the nearly 50 nations that count China as their top export destination.

According to economists at UBS, not only will it impact the countries where the goods are coming from, but individual industries will also be hit harder than others.

Brett Arends's ROI: Why I’d vote ‘no’ ...



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Insider Scoop

Why CarMax Is A 'Favorite' Stock At Oppenheimer

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related KMX KeyBanc Foresees Consolidation Among Auto Retailers CarMax Shares Sputter Following Lower Revenues

In a report published Friday, Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel maintained an Outperform rating on CarMax, Inc (NYSE: ...



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Chart School

Chinese SSEC rally with Wyckoff Logic

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Supply and demand is the leading force within stock prices, you must know the tea leaves. Richard Wyckoff logic is the only known method of understanding supply and demand with the stock market.Readtheticker.com provides all the tools you need to be a Wyckoff master analyst.More from RTT Tv

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load objects and text on charts, however some annotations are by a free third party ima...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Shanghai index creates historic reversal pattern like 2007

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Much of the attention around the world seems to be revolving around a small country called Greece. What about the most populated country in the world (China), any key messages coming from there of late?

Well another Month, Quarter and Half a year are in the books. With this in mind I wanted to look at Monthly action of the hottest stock market in the world, the Shanghai Index. Above looks at the Shanghai index over the past 25-years. The 100%+ rally over the past year has pushed the Shanghai index up to its 23% Fibonacci ratio and a long-term resistance line, that has been in play for 25-years at (1) above.

As the Shanghai index was hitting this...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of June 29th., 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls under the gun to muster troops, while bears lie in wait

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Two weeks ago, bulls seemed ready to push stocks higher as long-standing support reliably kicked in. But with just one full week to go before the Independence Day holiday week arrives, we will see if bulls can muster some reinforcements and make another run at the May highs. Small caps and NASDAQ are already there, but it is questionable whether those segments can drag along the broader market. To be sure, there is plenty of potential fuel floating around in the form of a friendly Fed and abundant global liquidity seeking the safety and strength of US stocks and bonds. While the technical picture has glimmers of strength, summer bears lie in wait.

In this weekly ...



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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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