Posts Tagged ‘free ebook’

DJIA’s 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line?

DJIA’s 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line? 

By Elliott Wave International

Moving averages are one of the most widely followed indicator in technical analysis.  Simply put, when the price of an index or stock stays above a particular price moving average line on a chart, that price level serves as support -- a level where buyers reside. If the price falls below a moving average line and "can’t" break through from the underside, this price level is a line of resistance -- a price level where sellers hover.  That’s an easy explanation of moving averages for you.

A commonly watched line is the 200-day moving average.

After the DJIA fell below its 200-day moving average in May, prices remained mainly below the line until June 15, when the market rose 213 points. But, as this chart from Elliott Wave International’s June 16 Short Term Update shows, the NYSE volume has remained muted:

DJIA's 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line?

"There was no follow-through today. More stocks closed down than up on the day on the NYSE, within the S&P 500 and also for the DJ Composite. Today’s Big Board volume was similarly slow relative to yesterday. …" -- Steven Hochberg, Short Term Update, June 16, 2010

With a lack of buying conviction, how long will the stock indexes remain above the 200-day moving average?

For the answer, you need to look at the DJIA’s Elliott wave structure. It strongly suggests the market will move in a definite direction in a matter of days or weeks.

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Learn to integrate Elliott wave analysis with other technical disciplines. Read the FREE Ultimate Technical Analysis eBook to discover some of the favorite technical analysis methods used by the analysts at Elliott Wave International.  Learn more and download your free, 50-page technical analysis ebook here.

 


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Market Myths Exposed: Inflation Is Not A Threat, Deflation Is

Market Myths Exposed: Inflation Is Not A Threat, Deflation Is 
Our free eBook reveals the 10 most common financial misconceptions 

Dragon breathing fire

By Nico Isaac, at Elliott Wave International 

Most people are confident they can recognize a myth when they hear one: Wearing a hat causes baldness; eating a bunch of carrots gives you perfect vision; ‘light’ cigarettes are better for your health than the regular kind.

But what about this sentence: Inflation is the number one threat to the US economy? Ask the mainstream experts, and this statement is in no way a fabrication of the truth; it is truth itself. Case in point, this recent insight from a reputable news source:

"Given the extraordinary amounts of government spending, we believe inflation is likely to rear its ugly head." (CNBC)

It looks reliable. It sounds reliable. But the reality is different. That fact is the subject of Chapter Three in Club EWI’s free educational eBook Market Myths Exposed, aptly titled "Myth No. 3: Worry About Inflation Rather Than Deflation."

With groundbreaking insight from EWI’s president Bob Prechter, this chapter reveals how the most vital financial players have been led right up to the water of easy money. Yet, like the saying goes, no amount of incentive — be it record low interest rates or trillions of dollars in federal bailouts — has gotten them to "drink." Here, the "Market Myths" chapter sheds light on this global leverage fast:

  • Banks: The premier dispensers of credit are about "95% invested in mortgages," which can fall in dollar value at the start of a crisis. Also, a chart of Credit Standards At All Banks since 1997 reveals a new trend of tighter lending criterion. Both are deflationary.
  • Consumers: The premier devourers of credit are paying off their balances. See: chart of Total Consumer Credit (Annual Rate of Change) since 2000. This is deflationary.
  • Private Equity: "Of the ten largest leveraged buyout deals since 2007, four have defaulted and two are in distress. Just in this small group, there is nearly one-half a trillion dollars worth of loans headed for the dump."
  • Small Businesses are self-liquidating; meaning, they create profits to pay back loans versus consumers. YET, "Market Myths" Chart of Bank Loan Availability to these small Enterprises contains a big, black arrow


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Individual Investors Have Jumped Into Another Fire

Individual Investors Have Jumped Into Another Fire

By Robert Prechter

[The following article is an excerpt from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.]

Moscow’s apartment building fire under control

First they bought into the “stocks for the long run” case and got killed. Then they jumped on the commodity bandwagon and got killed. Many investors are buying back into these very same markets, but others are running to what they perceive as safe “yields” in the municipal bond market. So far this year, individual investors have “poured a record $55 billion” (Bloomberg, 11/12) into muni bond funds, with the pace running $2b. per week in August and September; many other investors are buying munis outright. These must be the people who tell us that they can’t live without “yield” and also cannot imagine their city, county or state government going bust. But as Conquer the Crash warned and as The Elliott Wave Theorist has reiterated, the muni bond market is heading for disaster.

Municipalities have borrowed more than they can repay, they have pension liabilities that they cannot meet (up to a trillion dollars’ worth, according to Moody’s), and tax receipts are falling. The only reason that states haven’t failed yet is the so-called “stimulus package,” which took money from savers, investors and taxpayers—thereby impoverishing the people who live in the various states—and gave it to state governments to spend so they would not have to cease their profligate spending. But political pressures will eventually cut off this gravy train. In the 2010-2017 period, the muni bond market will become awash in defaults. The leap in optimism since March, which has shown up in every financial market, has fueled a retreat in muni bond yields to their lowest level since 1967 and narrowed the spread between muni bond yields and Treasuries.

This rush to buy municipal bonds is occurring right on the cusp of a dramatic decline in their values. While many individuals are loading up right at the peak so they can participate in the next major market disaster, smarter investors, such as insurance companies Allstate and Guardian Life, are getting out. Our recommendation for investors is 100 percent safety, and such a program does not include muni bonds.

******

This is a message and free e-book offer from Elliott Wave International:

You’ve no doubt heard the old mantras "stocks for the long haul," "diversify," "buy and hold."…
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If You Think the Past Decade Was Bad For Stocks, Wait Till You See This

If You Think the Past Decade Was Bad For Stocks, Wait Till You See This
The major stock indexes are the wrong place to look

By Robert Folsom, courtesy of Elliott Wave International

A well-known business magazine recently published a story with this headline:

Stocks: The "Loss" Decade
A disastrous ten years for the stock market ends in just a month. Will the turning of a new decade change investors’ luck?

One sentence from the story itself tells you most of what you need to know: "The ten years since Y2K are on track to produce the worst total returns for investors since the 1930s."

Of course, no one should really be surprised by a story that says the stock indexes did poorly over the past decade. That’s not news. The facts in the article more or less repeat what our own Elliott Wave Financial Forecast reported last March, complete with this chart:

It’s safe to say that this business magazine article is the first of many the media will run before the year’s end, as part of their "decade wrap-up" stories. And like this story, most or all those like will share the same basic assumption: stock investors did poorly because the stock indexes did poorly.

And that assumption, dear reader, is erroneous. The truth is far uglier.

Here’s what I mean. If you want to know how real stock investors really behave, the major stock indexes are the wrong place to look. Published results from firms like Dalbar and Vanguard consistently show that, over the past 25 years, individual investors and mutual fund shareholders have had average returns that are half (at best) of the annual returns of the broader stock market.

So, for example, in 20 years from Jan. 1, 1989 through Dec. 31, 2008, the S&P 500 showed a 8.35% gain (Dalbar). Over that same period, equity investors showed a 1.87% gain. And if you include the 2.89% inflation rate in those years, investors show a 1.02% loss.

You can shift to a timeframe which excludes the bear market that started in 2007, but it doesn’t change the basic story. From January 1984 though December 2002, the Dalbar data shows that equity investors earned an annual average of 2.6% vs. the S&P 500′s 12.2% annual average. The annual inflation rate for period was 3.14%.

What’s more, similar studies and surveys also…
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Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

At EWI’s Q&A Message Board, readers ask us dozens of questions daily. Here’s an interesting one that several subscribers have recently asked:

In Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, Short Term Update and elsewhere, you say that market sentiment is very bullish right now, which historically has indicated a market top. Is the sentiment really that bullish? I get a different feeling when I look around."

Elliott wave analysis is very visual; we’re all about charts. And often, a single look at a well-made chart can instantly show you what’s really been going on. Take a look at this chart from the December 2 issue of our Mon.-Wed.-Fri. Short Term Update:

stock market bears in hibernation

In the words of Steve Hochberg, the Update’s editor:

We see the bears’ retreat in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has dropped sharply the past three days to where it is nearly as low as it’s recent November 25 extreme of 20.05. We see it in the 10-day average of NYSE daily volume, which is at its lowest point since the bear-market rally started in March. And we see it in today’s release of the most recent Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey. The above chart shows the percentage of stock market bears, which has contracted to 16.7 percent… There are fewer bears now than at the October 2007 stock market peak and still fewer than at the June-July 2007 top in the NYSE a/d line.

By itself, a sentiment extreme — whether pessimistic or optimistic — is not a guarantee of a market reversal. (Nothing is, really: Financial markets exist in the world of probabilities, not certainties.) But couple sentiment measures with a longer-term Elliott wave pattern, and now you have a leg to stand on. 

*****

Elliott Wave International has extended their "downloading deadline" for their free 42-Page eBook, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci. The eBook, created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, is now available free until December 7, 2009. Go here to download your free eBook.

 


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Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Market Sentiment: Is It Really at Bullish Extremes?

Courtesy of Elliott Wave International

At EWI’s Q&A Message Board, readers ask us dozens of questions daily. Here’s an interesting one that several subscribers have recently asked:

In Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, Short Term Update and elsewhere, you say that market sentiment is very bullish right now, which historically has indicated a market top. Is the sentiment really that bullish? I get a different feeling when I look around."

Elliott wave analysis is very visual; we’re all about charts. And often, a single look at a well-made chart can instantly show you what’s really been going on. Take a look at this chart from the December 2 issue of our Mon.-Wed.-Fri. Short Term Update:

stock market bears in hibernation

In the words of Steve Hochberg, the Update’s editor:

We see the bears’ retreat in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has dropped sharply the past three days to where it is nearly as low as it’s recent November 25 extreme of 20.05. We see it in the 10-day average of NYSE daily volume, which is at its lowest point since the bear-market rally started in March. And we see it in today’s release of the most recent Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey. The above chart shows the percentage of stock market bears, which has contracted to 16.7 percent… There are fewer bears now than at the October 2007 stock market peak and still fewer than at the June-July 2007 top in the NYSE a/d line.

By itself, a sentiment extreme — whether pessimistic or optimistic — is not a guarantee of a market reversal. (Nothing is, really: Financial markets exist in the world of probabilities, not certainties.) But couple sentiment measures with a longer-term Elliott wave pattern, and now you have a leg to stand on. 

*****

Elliott Wave International has extended their "downloading deadline" for their free 42-Page eBook, How You Can Identify Turning Points Using Fibonacci. The eBook, created from the $129 two-volume set of the same name, is now available free until December 7, 2009. Go here to download your free eBook.

 


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Zero Hedge

Norway Desperately Needs Large Oil Discoveries

 

Norway Desperately Needs Large Oil Discoveries

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Thanks to cost-cuts and large oil discoveries made before the oil price crash, Norway will be able to sustain its oil and gas production over the next five years. But reduced exploration drilling and lack of big discoveries in the past two years spell trouble for Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer after 2023, authorities fear.

Nearly two-thirds of the undiscovered resources are thought to be located in the Baren...



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Phil's Favorites

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

 

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

Courtesy of 

Over the summer, I reviewed Steven Johnson’s book about innovation, called The Invention of Air. Johnson shows us how a simple insight by one of the least technically gifted scientists in history led to a massive chain reaction of human understanding about the world we live in and how it truly works.

If you missed my synopsis, it’s here.

...



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Digital Currencies

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

 

What if the price of Bitcoin is the least interesting thing about it?

Courtesy of 

Over the summer, I reviewed Steven Johnson’s book about innovation, called The Invention of Air. Johnson shows us how a simple insight by one of the least technically gifted scientists in history led to a massive chain reaction of human understanding about the world we live in and how it truly works.

If you missed my synopsis, it’s here.

...



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ValueWalk

Payback - a key term for investors in 2018

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

When will I get my money back? This week Tim Bennett explains how payback can answer this simple, but vital, question.

The post Payback – a key term for investors in 2018 appeared first on ValueWalk.

Sign up for ValueWalk's free newsletter here.

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Insider Scoop

Vetr Crowd Upgrades Exxon Mobil

Courtesy of Benzinga.

The Vetr community upgraded Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) from 2.5 stars (Sell) to 3 stars (Hold). Crowd confidence reflected this sentiment, with 50 percent of Vetr users giving the stock a Hold rating, 33.3 percent a Sell, and 13.7 percent a Buy, indicating mixed outlooks on the stock.

See how crowdsourced ratings could help you time the market

This crowd upgrade came as shares of the oil company closed at $86.79. The Vetr community and analysts alike remained slightly bullish, with Vetr users setting a $87.51 target price and analysts setting target prices within the $80-$90 range.

...

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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Jan 14, 2017

Courtesy of Blain.

After 3 days of mild “rest” – and the first down day of the year (!!) for the S&P 500, bulls came back with bells on Thursday and Friday, driving indexes to record highs yet again.  This is starting to get “parabolic”… some shades of the type of things we saw in 1999.  (See the S&P 500 and NASDAQ charts below)  The S&P 500 gained 1.6% and the NASDAQ 1.7% for the week.

“This reminds me of January 2000,” said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist, at Capitol Securities Management, which manages $4 billion in assets, referring to the nearly unceasing climb to records for stocks and the unease it can inspire.  “It’s scary, the unrelenting advance,” he added.

“The move isn’t about fundamentals...



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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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