Posts Tagged ‘Government Sachs’

NOT YOUR CONVENTIONAL BULL MARKET

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NOT YOUR CONVENTIONAL BULL MARKET

bull, bull marketCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Credit Suisse analysts must have been furious Monday morning.  After working all weekend on a brand new upgrade of the U.S. equity markets they needed one more day to touch up the report before issuance.  Lo and behold, Government Sachs beat them to the punch with their own upgrade of U.S. equity markets on Monday morning.  Poor guys because it’s one heck of a good report.  Credit Suisse not only upgraded their outlook on U.S. stocks (new S&P target of 1050), but issued an excellent piece on why this bull run is unlikely to be similar to past bull markets.

They list 6 reasons to be less optimistic in the long-term and why this will almost certainly be a W shaped recession (they currently believe we are on the first V so expect a double dip down in 2010). The 6 reasons will sound awfully familiar to regular readers, but CS does a nice job of condensing them:

1) There is over $7 TRILLION in excess leverage in the system:

cs1 excess leverage is $7 trillion

2) Global housing prices are still too high:

cs2 IMF house price overvaluation

3) U.S. housing inventories could hinder home prices for another 2-3 years:

cs31 US excess housing inventory

4) Global growth going forward is likely to be below trend:

1.   a lower investment share of GDP tends to lead to lower investment growth;
2.   the demographics are clearly deteriorating (the working age population is declining in Europe from next year and is contracting by nearly 1% pa in Japan)
3.   there is more red tape / regulation.

cs4 oecd estimates of potential growth

5) Margins are likely to contract further:

1.   corporate tax rates may have to rise
2.   emerging markets are causing commodity prices (the input costs for developed market companies) to be structurally higher.
3.   more red-tape / regulation.

6) There is no big cap bull market theme:

Each bull market typically needs a different driver. We believe that the new key themes of the new bull market are the Non-Japan Asian consumer and technology.  Yet, European equities don’t have strong exposure to this theme.

Source: Credit Suisse

Photo: Toro Bronce, the statue in Downtown Manhattan in honor of the Bull Financial Markets, originally posted to Flickr by James & Vilija at http://flickr.com/photos/15238715@N00/224568741, at Wikipedia.

 


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Goldman Sachs: “Engineering Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression”

Goldman Sachs: "Engineering Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression"

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge

With a subtitle like “From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression – and they’re about to do it again” run, don’t walk, to your nearest kiosk and buy Matt Taibbi’s latest piece in Rolling Stone magazine. One of the best comprehensive profiles of Government Sachs done to date. Speaking of GS, they sure must be busy today, now that Bernanke is about to be impeached and take the fall for all their machinations.


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Phil's Favorites

3 myths about the poor that Republicans are using to support slashing US safety net

 

3 myths about the poor that Republicans are using to support slashing US safety net

Courtesy of Michele GilmanUniversity of Baltimore

Sen. Chuck Grassley recently seemed to suggest some poor people spend all their money on “booze or women or movies.” AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

Republicans continue to use long-debunked myths about the poor as they defend lower taxes for the rich and deep cuts to the social safety net to p...



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Zero Hedge

The Best Tax Incentive In The World

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In a move almost destined to prove that laws and policies have absolutely zero meaning, the European Union released a list of “tax havens” last week… with a massive, giant, highly conspicuous omission.

The blacklist contains the names of the usual suspects– Panama, United Arab Em...



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Chart School

Rallies Slow As Semiconductor Selling Eases

Courtesy of Declan.

Markets experienced early gains but gave them back by the close of business. Given the mini-rally of the past five days, some of the indices are looking vulnerable to a new round of selling.

The S&P finished with a narrow inverted hammer on low volume but at new highs. A move back to the newly accelerated channel is looking favored.


The Nasdaq also finished with a narrow doji but wasn't able to make new highs.  It's already close to one channel but looks more likely to reach down to the slower channel.

...

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Insider Scoop

Earnings Scheduled For December 13, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Companies Reporting Before The Bell
  • Lightinthebox Holding Co Ltd-ADR (NYSE: LITB) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.01 per share on revenue of $78.49 million.
Companies Reporting After The Bell
  • ABM Industries, Inc. (NYSE: ABM) is expected to post quarterly earnings at $0.49 per share on revenue of $1.49 billion.
  • ...


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Digital Currencies

Not A Bubble?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Meet The Crypto Company - up almost 20,000% since inception in September...

To a market cap of over $12.6 billion...

Grant's Interest Rate Observer drew the world's attention to this 'company' yesterday.....



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Biotech

DNA has gone digital - what could possibly go wrong?

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

DNA has gone digital – what could possibly go wrong?

Courtesy of Jenna E. GallegosColorado State University and Jean PeccoudColorado State University

Modern advances come with new liabilities. Sergey ...



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ValueWalk

Tax Bill May Spark Exodus From High-Tax States

Courtesy of FinancialSense.com via ValueWalk.com

The following is a summary of our recent podcast, “Exodus – The Major Wealth Migration,” which can be listened to on our site here on on iTunes here.

It’s looking increasingl...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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