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NOT YOUR CONVENTIONAL BULL MARKET

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NOT YOUR CONVENTIONAL BULL MARKET

bull, bull marketCourtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Credit Suisse analysts must have been furious Monday morning.  After working all weekend on a brand new upgrade of the U.S. equity markets they needed one more day to touch up the report before issuance.  Lo and behold, Government Sachs beat them to the punch with their own upgrade of U.S. equity markets on Monday morning.  Poor guys because it’s one heck of a good report.  Credit Suisse not only upgraded their outlook on U.S. stocks (new S&P target of 1050), but issued an excellent piece on why this bull run is unlikely to be similar to past bull markets.

They list 6 reasons to be less optimistic in the long-term and why this will almost certainly be a W shaped recession (they currently believe we are on the first V so expect a double dip down in 2010). The 6 reasons will sound awfully familiar to regular readers, but CS does a nice job of condensing them:

1) There is over $7 TRILLION in excess leverage in the system:

cs1 excess leverage is $7 trillion

2) Global housing prices are still too high:

cs2 IMF house price overvaluation

3) U.S. housing inventories could hinder home prices for another 2-3 years:

cs31 US excess housing inventory

4) Global growth going forward is likely to be below trend:

1.   a lower investment share of GDP tends to lead to lower investment growth;
2.   the demographics are clearly deteriorating (the working age population is declining in Europe from next year and is contracting by nearly 1% pa in Japan)
3.   there is more red tape / regulation.

cs4 oecd estimates of potential growth

5) Margins are likely to contract further:

1.   corporate tax rates may have to rise
2.   emerging markets are causing commodity prices (the input costs for developed market companies) to be structurally higher.
3.   more red-tape / regulation.

6) There is no big cap bull market theme:

Each bull market typically needs a different driver. We believe that the new key themes of the new bull market are the Non-Japan Asian consumer and technology.  Yet, European equities don’t have strong exposure to this theme.

Source: Credit Suisse

Photo: Toro Bronce, the statue in Downtown Manhattan in honor of the Bull Financial Markets, originally posted to Flickr by James & Vilija at http://flickr.com/photos/15238715@N00/224568741, at Wikipedia.

 


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Goldman Sachs: “Engineering Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression”

Goldman Sachs: "Engineering Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression"

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge

With a subtitle like “From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression – and they’re about to do it again” run, don’t walk, to your nearest kiosk and buy Matt Taibbi’s latest piece in Rolling Stone magazine. One of the best comprehensive profiles of Government Sachs done to date. Speaking of GS, they sure must be busy today, now that Bernanke is about to be impeached and take the fall for all their machinations.


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Chart School

Weekly Market Summary

Courtesy of Doug Short.

Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

The set-up coming into this past week was clean: SPX and NDX exhibited breadth extremes from which they usually bounce and April Opex is a seasonally strong week (post).

In the event, SPX rose nearly 3%. In the process it exhibited a familiar pattern: overnight gaps in the past 4 days accounted 60% of the week's gain. Cash hours, when liquidity is greatest, was not where the meat of the gains took place. That was even more true for RUT and NDX which only posted cash hour gains during two of the four days.

After a sharp drop and a strong bounce, where does that leave the markets? Let's run through each of our market indicators...



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Zero Hedge

Massive "Meteor-Like" Explosion Lights Up North Russian Night Sky

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

A little over a year ago, in February 2013, a meteor traveling at 19 miles per second above Chelyabinsk in the Russian Urals exploded in the morning sky, recorded by countless dashcams, with the resulting shock wave shattering windows hundreds of miles away. Fast forward to this night, when residents of Russia's northern Murmansk region witnessed the fall of a celestial body similar to the famous Chelyabinsk meteorite on Saturday night. It flashed at 02:10 am local time and was clearly seen in the sky. However, no sound of explosions was heard.

Officials say th...



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Insider Scoop

Apache Agrees To Sell Western Canada Assets For US$374M

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Apache Corporation (NYSE, Nasdaq: APA) and its subsidiaries today announced an agreement to sell producing oil and gas assets in the Deep Basin area of western Alberta and British Columbia, Canada, for $374 million.

Incremental to Apache's earlier $2 billion share re-purchase announcement, the company plans to use the proceeds of this transaction to buy back Apache common shares under the 30-million-share repurchase program that was authorized by Apache's Board of Directors in 2013.

Apache is selling primarily dry gas-producing properties comprising 622,600 gross acres (328,400 net acres) in the Ojay, Noel and Wapiti areas in Alberta and British Columbia. In the Wapiti area, Apache will retain 100 percent of its working interest in horizons below the Cre...



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Phil's Favorites

"Insatiable" Idiocy from the Economist on What to Do About Russia; Warmongers Can't Think

Courtesy of Mish.

In "Insatiable" the Economist says "The cost of stopping the Russian bear now is high—but it will only get higher if the West does nothing".

Economist: Mr Putin has used the Ukrainian crisis to establish some dangerous precedents. He has claimed a duty to intervene to protect Russian-speakers wherever they are. He has staged a referendum and annexation, in defiance of Ukrainian law. And he has abrogated a commitment to respect Ukraine’s borders, which Russia signed in 1994 when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons. Throughout, Mr Putin has shown that truth and the law are whatever happens to suit him at the time.

Mish: What a bunch of one-sided hypocritical nonsense. The ...



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Market Shadows

Canary In the Yen Shaft: $10 trillion JGBs; No Bids!

Two guest authors, David Stockman and long-time contributor John Rubino, write about the current state of Abenomics. 

Canary In the Yen Shaft: $10 trillion JGBs; No Bids!

By  

This one matters a lot. Abenomics was predicated on a lunatic notion—namely, that the economic ills from Japan’s massive debt overhang could be cured by a central bank bond buying spree that was designed to be nearly 3X larger relative to its GDP than that of the Fed. Yet anyone with a modicum of common sense and market...



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Option Review

Wild Ride For Chipotle

Shares in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (Ticker: CMG) opened higher on Thursday morning, rising more than 6.0% to $589.00, after the restaurant operator reported better than expected first-quarter sales ahead of the opening bell. But, the stock began to falter just before lunchtime on concerns the burrito-maker will increase menu prices for the first time in three years. The price of Chipotle’s shares have since fallen into negative territory and currently trade down 3.5% on the session at $532.89 as of 1:50 p.m. ET.

Chart – Shares in Chipotle cool by lunchtime

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Sabrient

What the Market Wants: Positive News and Stocks at Bargain Prices

Courtesy of David Brown, Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Last week’s market performance was nasty again, especially for the Small-cap Growth style/cap, down 4%.  Large-caps faired the best, losing only 2.7%.  That’s ugly and today’s market seemed likely to be uglier today with escalating tensions over the weekend in Ukraine. 

But once again, positive economic trumped the beating of the war drums. Retail Sales jumped up 1.1% over a projected 0.8% and last month’s tepid 0.3%, which was revised up to 0.7%.  While autos led, sales were up solidly overall.  Business inventories were about as expected with a positive tone.  Citigroup (C) handily beat estimates to add to the morning’s surprises.  As a result, the market was positive through most of the day, led by the DJI, up 0.91%, and the S&P 500, up 0.82%.  NASDAQ had a less...



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Digital Currencies

Facebook Takes Life Seriously and Moves To Create Its Own Virtual Currency, Increases UltraCoin Valuation Significantly

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Reggie Middleton.

The Financial Times reports:

[Facebook] The social network is only weeks away from obtaining regulatory approval in Ireland for a service that would allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others, according to several people involved in the process. 

The authorisation from Ireland’s central bank to become an “e-money” institution would allow ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 14th 2014

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here...



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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Newsletter writers are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.

Here is the new Stock World Weekly. Please sign in with your user name and password, or sign up for a free trial to Stock World Weekly. Click here. 

Chart by Paul Price.

...

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Promotions

See Live Demo Of This Google-Like Trade Algorithm

I just wanted to be sure you saw this.  There’s a ‘live’ training webinar this Thursday, March 27th at Noon or 9:00 pm ET.

If GOOGLE, the NSA, and Steve Jobs all got together in a room with the task of building a tremendously accurate trading algorithm… it wouldn’t just be any ordinary system… it’d be the greatest trading algorithm in the world.

Well, I hate to break it to you though… they never got around to building it, but my friends at Market Tamer did.

Follow this link to register for their training webinar where they’ll demonstrate the tested and proven Algorithm powered by the same technological principles that have made GOOGLE the #1 search engine on the planet!

And get this…had you done nothing b...



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Pharmboy

Here We Go Again - Pharma & Biotechs 2014

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Ladies and Gentlemen, hobos and tramps,
Cross-eyed mosquitoes, and Bow-legged ants,
I come before you, To stand behind you,
To tell you something, I know nothing about.

And so the circus begins in Union Square, San Francisco for this weeks JP Morgan Healthcare Conference.  Will the momentum from 2013, which carried the S&P Spider Biotech ETF to all time highs, carry on in 2014?  The Biotech ETF beat the S&P by better than 3 points.

As I noted in my previous post, Biotechs Galore - IPOs and More, biotechs were rushing to IPOs so that venture capitalists could unwind their holdings (funds are usually 5-7 years), as well as take advantage of the opportune moment...



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