Posts Tagged
‘Head and Shoulders’
by Chart School - July 14th, 2009 9:36 pm
Hi All – we’re going to be posting exciting articles on charting and technical analysis here with Dave Fry’s nightly updates. Please check this section frequently and let us know what you think! - Ilene
Courtesy of Tim Knight at Slope of Hope
I’m hearing a lot of folks toss a phrase around attributed to Joe Granville: "If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong!"
Ummm, I’m not sure how many of you have data on Mr. Granville’s performance, but Mark Hulbert noted that The Granville Market Letter "is at the bottom of the Hulbert Financial Digest’s rankings for performance over the past 25 years – having produced average losses of more than 20 percent per year on an annualized basis." So I wouldn’t go tattooing everything he says on your forehead or anything.
The "obvious" thing these days is the head and shoulders pattern on the S&P. I admit, this thing has been exasperating. Before the market opened on Monday, it seemed ready to fulfill its destiny, but then Ms. Whitney decided to show up.
The above is the /ES, which incorporates the after-hours surge credited to INTC’s earnings release. We’re at a dangerous zone here. A cross above 928.25 on the /ES would put the final nail in the coffin on this pattern. But until then, I urge you remember a lesson from BRCM in 2000.
At the time, this stock also had a similarly exciting pattern.
Yet it wouldn’t seem to break 130 as it "should" have. One day it even went beneath 130 and then climbed right back up again. You can imagine how the bears were going insane with this stock as its freakish second right shoulder was formed.
The point I want to make is that sometimes these topping patterns take longer to play out than we would like. You have to just be patient sometimes. My point is better made with BRCM, though. I’ve tinted in the (now tiny) pattern which presaged what was to come.
Anyway, I had fallen back in love with the market, but the first couple of days of this week have turned me cold in a big, big hurry. It’ll be interesting to see how tomorrow stacks up when it’s finally over. As of this moment, it certainly looks like another slam-dunk for the bulls.
Tags: broadcom, Bulls, charts, Head and Shoulders, Stock Market
Posted in Chart School | No Comments »
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by ilene - July 3rd, 2009 2:53 pm
Courtesy of Corey Rosenbloom at Afraid to Trade
It’s being broadly circulated around the analysis circles, but there appears to be a distinct Head and Shoulders forming on the daily chart of the S&P 500. I’m picking up volume and momentum divergences as well, hinting that lower prices are yet to come but let’s take a look at these structures and what they might mean for traders.
With today’s 3% free-fall (Trend Day Down) in the broader stock market, it appears now that the dominant technical pattern is the developing Head and Shoulders on the S&P 500.
It’s not guaranteed, of course, but according to classical technical analysis patterns, we would expect the next move in price to be a ‘magnet trade’ down to test key support about the 885 level in the index.
This support is strongly established as the February highs along with the May lows. This level also forms the “Neckline” of the expected reversal pattern.
A break (and clean close) below 880 could trigger a flood of short-sell orders (and stop-losses from buyers) which could create a ’self-fulfilling prophecy’ as traders and investors push price lower.
The classic measuring move is the distance from the Head to the Neckline (about 75 points) which is subtracted from the neckline at 885 to give us a target from 800 to 810 for the next level of possible pattern support.
Take a look at Volume, which has been steadily trailing lower as price has creeped its way higher. That serves as a non-confirmation of higher prices and hints at an impending reversal.
Finally, look at the 3/10 Momentum Oscillator – as price has been inching higher, the 3/10 Oscillator has been making lower highs along with price, and has even set-up the dreaded “Three Push” reversal pattern (a triple negative momentum divergence, which you see if you look closely).
As a caveat, there’s no guarantee price has to break these levels, and one astute reader (Michael) even noted in the comments of the prior post, because the Head and Shoulders pattern is so obvious, it might be ‘faded’ or fail to materialize because so many people are watching it. No one said trading had to be easy!
Until we see something different, this is the current price structure of the S&P 500 as we head into…
Tags: Divergences, Head and Shoulders, S&P 500, SPX
Posted in Phil's Favorites | No Comments »
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February 11th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.
Submitted by testosteronepit.
Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com
"The European Union is suffering under Germany,” Georgios Karatzaferis said on Friday. He is the president of the rightwing LAOS. With 15 members in parliament, the party is a minority partner in the coalition cabinet of party-less technocrat Prime Minister Lucas Papademos. Karatzaferis accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of trying to "impose her will on Southern Europeans." He called t...
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February 11th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of Jesse's Cafe Americain
"The privileged have regularly invited their own destruction with their greed."
John Kenneth Galbraith, The Age of Uncertainty
"Psychopaths have a grandiose self-structure which demands a scornful and detached devaluation of others, in order to ward off their envy toward the good perceived in other people."
“He will choose you, disarm you with his words, and control you with his presence. He will delight you with his wit and his plans. He will show you a good time but you will always get the bill. He will smile and deceive you, and he will scare you with his eyes.
And when he is through with you, and he will be through with you, he will desert you and take with him your innocence and your pride. You...
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February 11th, 2012 3:35 pm
Courtesy of Doug Short.
The 2012 rally slowed last week as the average gain of our basket of eight markets dropped from 2.01% the previous week to a flat finish of 0.06%. Geographic rotation was the dominant pattern, with the world leadership moving from Europe to the Asia Pacific. Thus, the top performing Nikkei 225 had been the worst performer at the end of the previous week, while the three European indexes were demoted from stellar to cellar. The S&P 500 again finished near the middle of the pack, but in the spirit of the overall slowdown, a finish near the middle was a week-over-week close (fractionally) in the red.
The adjacent table shows the 2012 year-to-date performance of our gang of eight. Three markets have maintained their double-digit gains at the end of six weeks, with the BSE SENSEX overtaking the DAXK (i.e., the DAX ex dividends) for the lead with the Hang Seng in...
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February 11th, 2012 12:00 am
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysis
ICABUYThe projected value for Empresas ICA is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
XBUYThe projected value for US Steel is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly.
FEICBUYProjected value continues to rise for FEI while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected.
ASBCBUYMany analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from Associated Bancorp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving....
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February 10th, 2012 6:20 pm
Courtesy of Benzinga.
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Friday February 10, 2012:
Actuant Acquires Jeyco Pty
The Deal:
Actuant (NYSE: ATU) announced Friday that it has acquired Jeyco Pty Ltd (“Jeyco”). Headquartered near Perth, Australia, Jeyco designs and provides specialized mooring, rigging and towing systems and services to the offshore oil & gas industry in Australia and other international markets. Additionally, its highly engineered products are used in a variety of applications for other markets including cyclone mooring and marine, defense and mining tow systems. Jeyco generates annual revenues of approximately $20 million.
Actuant shares closed at $27.33 Friday, a loss of 0.18% on average volume.
...
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February 10th, 2012 4:14 pm
Submitted by Mark Hanna
Courtesy of MarketMontage. View original post here.
A little flurry of buying in the closing 5 minutes tacked on 2 S&P points and took the major indexes off the lows. Only the Russell 2000 finished with a greater than 1% loss (1.4%) as it has been relatively weak versus the senior indexes for the past few sessions. While today was the "worst day of the year" – it was quite a low bar as the previous biggest loss on the S&P 500 was -0.57%.
The S&P 500 held well above the 10 day moving average (didn't even really touch it) and did not even attempt to fill the gap from last Friday's employment report. The teflon market rolls on for now. Specul...
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February 10th, 2012 4:11 pm
Courtesy of John Nyaradi.
Greece was “saved” for less than 24 hours but now major ETFs around the world skid into the weekend on Greek fears
After wangling for a week or more, Greek took their new deal to the European Ministers meeting, only to have it promptly rejected and so as we go into the weekend, major global markets and ETFs have again hit the skids on Greece.
After two years of wangling, the European zone is demanding yet more and deeper cuts for Greece to qualify for the next round of bailout loans that will keep the country from going bankrupt on March 20th.
Major European and United States ETF responded negatively to the new developments:
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial ETF (NYSEARCA:...
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February 10th, 2012 1:40 pm
Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
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February 10th, 2012 1:22 pm
Today’s tickers: TRLG, KR & IGT
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February 6th, 2012 9:02 am
Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
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February 5th, 2012 5:19 am
NEW: Elliott and Ilene are available to chat with Members regarding topics presented in SWW, comments are found below each post.
Here's the latest Stock World Weekly, called "The Relentless Pursuit of Meaningless Metrics."
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January 30th, 2012 7:22 am
Here is a quick update of past trades and our current position.
AA Money
No trade this week as we wait for AA to settle. Phil remarked last week that AA seemed overvalued. In the meantime, it looks like we might have to roll our Feb 9 calls. Good thing we sold only 5 of them against our position.
Last week P&L - 310.00
We lost ground last week, but we still have 11 months to sell premium!
FAS Money
Very good week for FAS Money as we benefited from the large amount of premium sold the previous week. We covered most of the shorts in advance of the Fed speech, but sold another set of options on Wednesday after the speech - 2 FAS calls that expired worthless on Friday, 2 FAS put that we are still holding and 2 FAZ put that we bought back for a profit on Friday. A late stick comparable to last week's almost gave us problems at the end of the day though!
Last week P&L - $4277.00
IWM Money
A decent week in this virtual portfo...
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January 18th, 2012 1:09 am
Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.
Finding new and exciting Biotech companies that target novel mechanisms is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. Sure there are many companies working on cutting edge science, but investing in those companies to reap the rewards of their work is a very dangerous game. More often than not, companies fail because the mechanism does not pan out, the compound(s) do not have pharmacokinetics (get into the body or last very long in the body), or an adverse event happens that knocks years off a development timeline. In addition, the stock can be manipulated by market makers so investors don't know which way is up. I approach investing in biotechs as a long term prospect. I continue to like our current portfolio of biotech companies (join in chat for many of those plays), and we continually add/subtract shares and sell/buy options on ...
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