Here’s PSW member Tuscadog’s detailed analysis of the company Amedisys (AMED). Tuscadog feels this is one of the few solid opportunities in the stock market, and he suggests a massive short squeeze may be coming due to AMED’s 53% short interest. – Ilene
Amedisys, Inc. provides home health and hospice services to the chronic, co-morbid, and aging American population. Its home health services include skilled nursing and home health aide services; physical, occupational, and speech therapy; and medically oriented social work to eligible individuals who require ongoing care. The company also offers clinically focused programs for chronic conditions and various diseases,…(Yahoo financial, more here.>>)
Why Amedisys (AMED) will hit $85
Courtesy of Tuscadog, member at PSW
Feb 23rd may be ‘Judgment Day’ for the AMED short interest.
This is a long posting based on a lot of research and high level interviews I’ve conducted. I’m a private (long term) investor in Amed and I don’t appreciate the way Amed has been ‘jerked around’ by the hedge funds with false rumors and shorting, hence my willingness to share my analysis with small investors. These are my opinions based on my own extensive research, so invest at your own risk. For background on Amed pay particular attention to the 7 articles by Daryl Davis in the ‘Financial Blogs’ section of the Yahoo Finance page for Amed.
UPDATED GUIDANCE WILL BE A NIGHTMARE FOR SHORTS:
Amed will likely release 2009 EPS on Feb 23rd of around $4.90 to $5 and, more importantly, it will give guidance for 2010 based on the status quo on Medicare billing rates for 2010 (i.e. as already issued for 2010 by The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, CMS). Based on the company’s growth rates and CMS’s announced approved rate increase for 2010 (which translates into a 1.8% net increase for 2010 after two flat pricing years) Amed will likely provide 2010 guidance in the $5.60 to $5.70 range. I believe actual results outcome will likely be higher, in the $5.70 to $5.90 range.
The 15 analysts who cover AMED are likely waiting for Amed’s guidance update and to see if there are any Health-Bill developments. The Suntrust upgrade Monday to a $70 target is using a pessimistic assumption of a revision to a retroactive 2.5% Medicare billing rate reduction for 2010. Currently, analysts eps forecasts for 2010 include varying degrees of…
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Tesla Motors (TSLA) – With a market capitalization of $31 billion, Tesla Motors is valued by Wall Street at roughly $620,000 for every car the company delivered in 2015. Tesla’s lofty valuation has made shares of the company one of the most popular plays among short sellers.
Goldman Sachs disagrees with the valuation, stating:
On the back of this analysis, our base case volumes and EPS estimates rise by an average of 11% and 17% from 2018-2025 (and our downside case by 5% and 10%, respectively). We also raise the probability of our upside case –where Tesla goes from being merely successful to being disruptive, to 35% from 25%. This drives the bulk of our 6-month price target revision to $245 from $202, enough to justify the current price but with limited upside ...
Yesterday, the first market day of the proverbial "sell in May" strategy, saw a 0.78% gain, but the second day of May trading erased the gain with a 0.87% loss. Today was light on economic news, with the big economic event of the week coming on Friday with the release of the April employment report. The popular financial press pointed to larger than expected contraction (at 49.4) in China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, a diffusion index that has contracted for the past 21 months. Our colleagues at Investing.com had forecast a near break-even at 49.9. The S&P 500 plunged at the open and sold off to its late morning -1.28% intraday low. It rec...
Michael Bloomberg gave a not so popular commencement address at the University of Michigan over the weekend. The former champion of banning large sugary drinks was surprisingly critical of college "safe spaces", the new trend that's sweeping the nation.
When the topic of critical lessons learned throughout college came up, the former mayor didn't hold back on his feelings about the subject. As he spoke, ...
Last week, Rasmussen Reports gave voters the option of staying home on Election Day if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the big party nominees, and six percent (6%) said that’s what they intend to do for now. Clinton and Trump were tied with 38% support each; 16% said they would vote for some other candidate, and two ...
Or, as Bespoke Investment Group put it in a note Monday, "Both reported demand and reported supply of C&I loans are suggesting that credit will stop flowing to business from banks in the near future, if history is any guide."
Over the past 12-15 months, the majority of global stock markets have been in a down trend, creating a series of lower highs and lower lows. The German Stock market peaked around 6-weeks ahead of the S&P 500 last year and could be considered a global trend leader, creating a domino effect.
Below updates the pattern in the DAX index-
CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE
The DAX index remains inside of long-term rising channel (A), no doubt ...
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Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote,
"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today.
Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...
Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,
The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now.
And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now.
Phil writes back,
I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at email@example.com with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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