Posts Tagged ‘housing stock market’

Thoughts On The “Recoveryless Recovery”

Here’s an excellent article by Mish explaining, in detail, what he meant when he wrote the "bottom may be in." – Ilene

Thoughts On The "Recoveryless Recovery"

bottom, recoveryCourtesy of Mish

In response to Military vs. Non-Military Durable Goods in Pictures where I suggested the "bottom may be in", many people asked "how so?"

For example "They Stole My Country" writes:

Mish,

Most of the deflation blogs I lurk at here and there are pretty adamant that things are going to get worse. You always seem to hedge that the "bottom might be in." When I look at all I have learned from you and others regarding the state of the economy, I just can’t hold out hope the bottom might be in. The jobs are not coming back. Why do you feel the need to qualify?

Likewise "VaAppraiser" asks:

Mish, I also am wondering what bottom you keep referring to? I do not like gloom and doom predictions but I am in the camp with all the others that we not seeing spring here (re: green shoots). Looks more like the end of fall… but I am no expert in the larger matters. What I do know and have expertise in is the housing markets I cover. I have written on some other sites that there is no way any of the markets I cover have reached their bottom.

In the best markets, they still have just under 6 months inventory and we are about 75% of the way through our selling season. If this were the inventory going into the season, yes…we could be bottoming but we are getting ready to go into our slow season…not the bottom by far. I believe inventory will shoot up to 9-12 months pretty quickly. Then prices drop, especially with short sales and REO’s having such a big percentage of the market.

Recovery? What Recovery?

Before we can address the question "is the bottom in?" we must answer the question: "the bottom of what?" Moreover, we must also state a timeframe. The latter is critical.

  • In general, when I say the bottom may be in, I am speaking of the GDP. Yes, GDP is a very flawed measure, but given all the economic stimulus, it is highly likely the GDP will rebound for a quarter or two, perhaps more.
  • In regards


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Zero Hedge

Nigel Farage Draws Thunderous Ovation At Trump Rally: "I Wouldn't Vote For Hillary If She Paid Me"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

It was a match made in anti-establishment heaven when Nigel Farage appeared next to Donald Trump at a Mississippi rally last night. One week after Trump tweeted that "They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT," the real Mr. Brexit spoke alongside Trump in a much anticipated event.

Farage, the former leader of the UK I...



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Phil's Favorites

How Long Will It Take for the ECB to Own All Sovereign Debt of Spain, Germany, France?

Courtesy of Mish.

Huky Guru on Guru’s Blog posted a chart that answers the question: How Long Will it Take For the ECB to Own All Sovereign Debt of Eurozone Countries?

At the current rate of purchase of sovereign bonds the ECB will have have purchased all sovereign debt issued by Spain in 9 years and Germany in 8.8 years.

Bond Market Distortion

Distortion in the corporate bond market has ...



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ValueWalk

Warren Buffett: Jeff Bezos Has 'Changed The World' In A Big Way

Courtesy of ValueWalk.

Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett discusses Jeff Bezos’ extraordinary success with Amazon.

Warren Buffett: Jeff Bezos Has ‘Changed The World’ In A Big Way

 

Image source: YouTube Video Screenshot

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Chart School

Modest Selling

Courtesy of Declan.

Yesterday's buying likely caught shorts out, but later weakness may have encouraged profit taking today. The damage was relatively light and only served as a warning.

For example, the S&P didn't lose breakout support and selling volume was light


The Nasdaq did see more selling to finish with a distribution day. The index finished on its 20-day MA, which it last saw in a convergence in June and was followed by a successful bounce.

...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

German Economy Held Back by Weakest Services Growth in 15 Months (Bloomberg)

Germany’s economy lost some momentum this month as manufacturing cooled and the services sector posted its weakest performance in 15 months.

The US Has A Huge Rate Of Whites In Incarceration (But Nobody's Talking About It) (Zero Hedge)

Data provided by PrisonStudies.org is helping shed light on America&rsq...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold & Silver Miners potentially kissing resistance

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the oldest miners index in the states, XAU index, over the past decade. The XAU index looks to be kissing potentially important resistance levels at this time.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

All mining indices are up strong this year and all remain well below 2011 levels. Is the rally this year, nothing more than a counter trend rally in a long-term down trend? Not ...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 22nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust

 

Man Who Introduced Millions to Bitcoin Says Blockchain Is a Bust 

By  at Bloomberg

Excerpt:

Stefan Thomas, who introduced millions of people to bitcoin, has had a change of heart.

Blockchain, the ledger software that makes the digital currency possible...



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Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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