Most of the deflation blogs I lurk at here and there are pretty adamant that things are going to get worse. You always seem to hedge that the "bottom might be in." When I look at all I have learned from you and others regarding the state of the economy, I just can’t hold out hope the bottom might be in. The jobs are not coming back. Why do you feel the need to qualify?
Likewise "VaAppraiser" asks:
Mish, I also am wondering what bottom you keep referring to? I do not like gloom and doom predictions but I am in the camp with all the others that we not seeing spring here (re: green shoots). Looks more like the end of fall… but I am no expert in the larger matters. What I do know and have expertise in is the housing markets I cover. I have written on some other sites that there is no way any of the markets I cover have reached their bottom.
In the best markets, they still have just under 6 months inventory and we are about 75% of the way through our selling season. If this were the inventory going into the season, yes…we could be bottoming but we are getting ready to go into our slow season…not the bottom by far. I believe inventory will shoot up to 9-12 months pretty quickly. Then prices drop, especially with short sales and REO’s having such a big percentage of the market.
Recovery? What Recovery?
Before we can address the question "is the bottom in?" we must answer the question: "the bottom of what?" Moreover, we must also state a timeframe. The latter is critical.
In general, when I say the bottom may be in, I am speaking of the GDP. Yes, GDP is a very flawed measure, but given all the economic stimulus, it is highly likely the GDP will rebound for a quarter or two, perhaps more.
As BBG's Vincent Cingarella says, nothing short of a Herculean effort is likely to weaken the Yen over the long-term amid speculation about what the BOJ and government stimulus will look like. Over the short-term it is a different story, because as reported earlier, a report in mid afternoon NY time about the government pressuring the "independent" central bank to boost its stimulus sent USD/JPY higher but only back to levels seen early in the session, with the Yen...
Our benchmark S&P 500 continued in its range-bound sideways trend, posting a fractional gain of 0.16% that essentially split the different between the intraday high and low. The small gain extended the fractional up-down pattern of daily closes to eleven sessions. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 1.86% today and is now in bear territory, down 20.16% from its interim high 36 sessions ago on June 8th.
The yield on the 10-year remined unchanged at 1.52%.
Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Here is a daily chart of the index. We've highlighted the unusually narrow pattern over the past eleven sessions, both in closes and intraday trading ranges. To repeat again the pervading question: Wil...
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
NetSuite Inc (NYSE:N) is soaring this morning as Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL) has made a bid to buy the company for $9.3 billion. This deal has been rumored for some time but obviously few expected such a large premium or did not think the bid was certaintly coming as the stock is up about 18 percent at the time of this writing which is a lot for a tech giant. Here is what the sell side is saying.
NetSuite – analysts react
Should the transaction take place, Oracle would pay about 9x NTM EV / revenue (based on consensus estimates for NetSuite), above the average multiple paid in our precedent SaaS Software acquisitions analysis of 6.8x . Additionally, Oracl...
The following are the M&A deals, rumors and chatter circulating on Wall Street for Wednesday July 27, 2016:
Sequenom Being Acquired by Lab Corp for $2.40/Share in Cash
Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings (NYSE: LH) and Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) announced Wednesday, that they have entered into a definitive agreement aunder which LabCorp would acquire all of the outstanding shares of Sequenom in a cash tender offer for $2.40 per share, for an equity value of $302 million.
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After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.
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