Posts Tagged ‘How We Ended the Great Recession’

Mainstream Economists: “Mission Accomplished”

Mainstream Economists: "Mission Accomplished"

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog 

Numerous current stories show how disconnected mainstream policy-makers are from reality.

For example, Ryan Grim points out that there is an "unbelievable disconnect" between the American people (who are people are against the Afghanistan war) and Congress and the political elite (gung-ho to escalate this never-ending war): 

Even after the Wikileaks revelations, even though there is no logical reason to be in Afghanistan, even though the war won’t help the economy, and even though most Americans want us to get out, Congress keeps increasing funding for the endless war.

And Alan Blinder (economist, banking consultant and former Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and chief Moody’s economist Mark Zandi wrote a paper yesterday called How We Ended the Great Recession:

How We Ended the Great Recession

A source on Capitol Hill sent this to me, telling me that the paper is making the rounds on the Hill.

In the paper, Blinder and Zandi congratulate the Bush and Obama administrations for saving us from the Great Depression 2.0:

Eighteen months ago, the global financial system was on the brink of collapse and the U.S. was suffering its worst economic downturn since the 1930s. The Great Recession gave way to recovery as quickly as it did largely because of the unprecedented responses by monetary and fiscal policymakers.

In other words: "Mission Accomplished".

In the real world, however, the economy is on the second leg down of the crash, and the government’s policies have not addressed the real problems. See this and this (no wonder consumer confidence is plunging but Wall Street is partying like it’s 1999).

Indeed, while Blinder and Zandi and Congress are patting themselves on the back for a job well done, the facts simply do not bear out their claims. As just one example, they claim that the TARP bank bailouts helped the economy. But as I pointed out in March 2009, the bailout money didn’t actually…
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Zero Hedge

Tesla Is Tumbling In The Pre-Market

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

The battle between Elon Musk and Jim Chanos continues in the pre-market as non-GAAP exuberance is trumped by epic cash burns and reality-checks from hedge fund managers. The after-hours panic-buying algos appear to have enabled more than a few to exit in a hurry...

Even with near record short-interest...

...



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Chart School

New Jobless Claims: Up 17K, Worse than Forecast

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor:

In the week ending April 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 274,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 257,000. The 4-week moving average was 258,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 256,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. This marks 61 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973. [See full report]

Today's seasonally adjusted 274K new claims was up 17K from last week's 257K and above the ...



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Phil's Favorites

Atlas Crumbles Under Weight of Italian Banks

Courtesy of Mish.

On April 12, in one of the easiest financial predictions in history, I challenged the notion that a €5 billion slush fund dubbed “Atlas” could possibly prop up €360 Billion of non-performing loans in Italian banks.

Less than a month later, “Atlas” is already a notable failure.

I seek no credit for my call, and none is due. Failure was a certainty from the start.

Instead, I question the sanity of anyone who thought such a preposterous scheme could work in the first place.

Please consider Atlas Strains to Hold up the Sky Over Italy’s Banking Sector.

A government-orchestrated, privately backed €4.25...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oil Turns Lower After Bigger-Than-Forecast U.S. Crude Build (Fox Business)

A bigger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories to fresh record highs pushed oil markets down after an early rally on Wednesday over concerns about production cuts in Canada's oil sands region due to a wildfire.

Trade Deficit Shrinks as Goods Imports Hit Five-Year Low (Fox Business)

The U.S. trade deficit fell more than expected in March as imports of goods tumbled to their lowest level since 2010, a potential boost to first-quarter ec...



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ValueWalk

Pension Funds - Taking the Long View: The Dangers of Short-Termism

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Pension Funds – Taking the Long View: The Dangers of Short-Termism

Moderator
Scott Minerd, Managing Partner, Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer, Guggenheim Partners

Speakers
Christopher Ailman, Chief Investment Officer, California State Teachers? Retirement System; Co-Chair, Global Capital Markets Advisory Council, Milken Institute
Scott Evans, Deputy Comptroller, Asset Management, and Chief Investment Officer, New York City Retirement Systems
Vicki Fuller, Chief Investment Officer, New York State Common Retirement Fund
Hiromichi Mizuno, Executive Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer, Government Pension Investment Fund, Japan

Intensifying global competition, flagging corporate earnings and emboldened activist investors ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds- Potential breakdown at triple resistance zone

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Many like to watch the price action of Junk Bonds, because they can send important messages about the strength or lack of in the stock market. Below looks at Junk Bond ETF JNK

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

As you can see, JNK looks to have created a double top in 2013 and 2014 and weakness in the sector soon followed. Once weakness really started to take place in this sector (2015), stocks didn’t have much luck moving higher.

JNK created a bullish reversal pattern (bullish wick pattern) the week of 2/5 and started turning high...



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Digital Currencies

Is Craig Wright The Creator Of Bitcoin? Frisby and Matonis On 'Satoshi Nakamoto'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Is Craig Wright The Creator Of Bitcoin? Frisby and Matonis On ‘Satoshi Nakamoto’

By Mark O'Byrnewww.GoldCore.com 

Craig Wright, an Australian computer scientist, self-declared cyber security expert and entrepreneur, has claimed to be the creator of Bitcoin, the elusive &l...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 2nd, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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