Posts Tagged ‘industrial revolution’

Niall Ferguson: If The Obama Administration Listens To Paul Krugman It Would Lead To An Imminent Debt Crisis

Niall Ferguson: If The Obama Administration Listens To Paul Krugman It Would Lead To An Imminent Debt Crisis

Niall Ferguson Courtesy of Tyler Durden

In an interview with Bloomberg TV’s Erik Shatzker, Niall Ferguson picks up where Reinhart and Rogoff leave off. The historian discusses the bond vigilantes, "Bond vigilantes are a bit like the people short selling investment banks a couple of years ago. You start with Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, you don’t get to Goldman Sachs until quite late in the game. In a way the sovereign debtors of the western world are pretty much in that position today. And we are working down the list, starting with Greece, moving on to Spain and Portugal, the UK dodged the bullet by implementing some preemptive measures. Sooner or later the bond vigilantes will get to the US, I don’t think it will be this year, but in the absence of any political will to address this problem, this is simply an inevitability."

As to why it is inevitable, Ferguson observes the case of the UK which was the only one to manage to grow its way out of massive debt load: "Britain after 1815 had two big advantages, it had the only the industrial revolution at that point that was going on in the word and had the world’s biggest empire. I don’t see anyone in that happy position today." The outlook: "Is it going to be inflation or is it going to be default. Right now there is no sign of inflation. We have monetary contraction at an alarming rate, and zero inflation in terms of core CPI, so the option of inflating this debt away doesn’t seem to be there right now. What you are left with is therefore default. And I think it is a fair bet that US will default at least on the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare at some point in the foreseeable future. What the Greeks discovered you are fine until you are not fine with the bond market and if you have a non-credible fiscal strategy of borrowing a $1 tillion a year for the rest of time, never ever again running a balanced budget, at some point the markets are going to get spooked, and I think that point is nearer than Paul Krugman believes. Nothing would spook the markets more than for Paul Krugman’s advice to
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Zero Hedge

100 Days Of Trump: A Nation Divided

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

An almost inconceivably large amount has been written and said about Donald Trump during his first 100 days as the president of the United States. The lion's share, it must be said, has been negative; especially internationally. But, as Statista's Martin Armstrong details, where it matters most for the president, there is a very clear split in opinion.

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Financial Markets and Economy

How North Korea gets its oil from China: lifeline in question at U.N. meeting (Reuters)

As the United Nations Security Council decides whether to tighten the sanctions screws on North Korea, the country's increasingly isolated government could lose a lifeline provided by state-owned China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).

Anything-But-Soft Earnings Data Starting to Smack of Rally Years (Bloomberg)

Among the spate of bullish trends visible after three weeks of earnings reports: analysts, who almost always cut full-year estimates in April, are now raising them, p...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Top investor bets against 'dizzying' American stocks (The Telegraph)

Donald Trump’s election has put fire in the belly of the US stock market. Investors have become excited about the dealmakers in his administration and his plans to cut taxes and spend big on roads and other infrastructure projects.

The hottest thing in the markets right now is an obscure metal mined in DR Congo (Quartz)

The financial markets have an unlikely new hero. In recent months, the best way to make a serious amount of money in a short amount of time has been to buy cobalt.

...

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Digital Currencies

Is The Blockchain About To Disrupt This $7 Trillion Industry?

By Teeka Tiwari, International Man

[Posted at Zero Hedge]

Recently, I wrote about a small $100,000 trade of cheese and butter.

Why?

This one trade changed 400 years of history in just four hours.

How so? Normally, it would take 10 days to handle the paperwork. But this trade concluded in less than fou...



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ValueWalk

The First (and Last?) Competitive Advantage

By VWArticles. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Farnam Street Q1 letter to investors

Also see

2017 Hedge Fund Letters Hedge Fund Letters: 2016

The First (and Last?) Competitive Advantage

“Capitalism is a pretty brutal place.”

– Charlie Munger

]]> Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Gold Miners; Largest outflows in history could be bullish, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Could historical outflows present an opportunity? Yesterday Sentimentrader.com reported that outflows from Gold Miners ETF’s GDX and GDXJ topped $800 million on 4/26, the largest single day outflows in history. 

Below looks at Gold Miners ETF GDX, reflecting where these large outflows took place.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The long-term trend since...



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Chart School

Semiconductors Tick Along

Courtesy of Declan.

It was another quiet day for indices but the Semiconductor index was able to add over 1% on the day. This also helped post gains to the Nasdaq 100, although there was a relative gain for the Semiconductor Index against the latter index.


The Nasdaq 100 registered an accumulation day despite its underperformance against Small Caps. The index remains well placed to make a move to upper channel resistance.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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