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INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Update on insider activity from Pragcap – selling still far exceeds buying, confirming my thoughts on Feb. 20 that trends haven’t changed. - Ilene 

INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The recent uptick in stocks has not been met with much enthusiasm by corporate insiders.  In fact, pessimism rules the day in the land of insider buying and selling trends.  For the week ending February 26th insiders sold a total of $1.88B in stock and purchased just $13.22MM.  Selling was up substantially from last week and buying was down substantially from last week.  The selling was the highest level experienced this year.  Interestingly, as the rally has continued insiders have actually increased their selling.

Of course, insiders sell for numerous reasons so it’s foolish to look at insider selling alone, however, the low level of buying tells the real story here.  Insiders simply don’t trust the long-term viability of the equity rally based on the condition of their internal operations.  Perhaps most alarming in this data is the fact that it is not solely a problem in the United States.  As we noted last week, the problem is pervasive in China as well where insider buying and selling trends remain negative.   Clearly, Main Street investors aren’t the only ones aware of the government induced rally in stocks.  The stimulus based recovery in China is apparently causing some concern in the corner offices in Hong Kong as well.

There was no notable buying this week, however, there were some interesting trends in selling.  Sales across the consumer discretionary space we particularly heavy.   Selling was very heavy in Whole Foods (WFMI) where insiders clearly desire to take profits following the 25%+ rally in recent weeks.  Other notable sales included sizable selling by the CFO’s of TJX and VF Corp.   As we’ve previously mentioned, sales by CFO’s are always intriguing because no insider knows the company finances like the CFO.   All notable buying and selling is attached:

it13 INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Notable selling:

it23 INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Source: FinViz 

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For updated Finviz data, go here for a list of recent buys and sells 

 


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INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Update on insider activity from Pragcap — selling still far exceeds buying, confirming my thoughts on Feb. 20 that trends haven’t changed. - Ilene 

INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

The recent uptick in stocks has not been met with much enthusiasm by corporate insiders.  In fact, pessimism rules the day in the land of insider buying and selling trends.  For the week ending February 26th insiders sold a total of $1.88B in stock and purchased just $13.22MM.  Selling was up substantially from last week and buying was down substantially from last week.  The selling was the highest level experienced this year.  Interestingly, as the rally has continued insiders have actually increased their selling.

Of course, insiders sell for numerous reasons so it’s foolish to look at insider selling alone, however, the low level of buying tells the real story here.  Insiders simply don’t trust the long-term viability of the equity rally based on the condition of their internal operations.  Perhaps most alarming in this data is the fact that it is not solely a problem in the United States.  As we noted last week, the problem is pervasive in China as well where insider buying and selling trends remain negative.   Clearly, Main Street investors aren’t the only ones aware of the government induced rally in stocks.  The stimulus based recovery in China is apparently causing some concern in the corner offices in Hong Kong as well.

There was no notable buying this week, however, there were some interesting trends in selling.  Sales across the consumer discretionary space we particularly heavy.   Selling was very heavy in Whole Foods (WFMI) where insiders clearly desire to take profits following the 25%+ rally in recent weeks.  Other notable sales included sizable selling by the CFO’s of TJX and VF Corp.   As we’ve previously mentioned, sales by CFO’s are always intriguing because no insider knows the company finances like the CFO.   All notable buying and selling is attached:

it13 INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Notable selling:

it23 INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

Source: FinViz 

****

For updated Finviz data, go here for a list of recent buys and sells

 


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INSIDER SELLING SOARS TO 2010 HIGH

Here’s another article on recent insider buying and selling by The Pragmatic Capitalist. He agrees with my assessment over the weekend (Insider Buying and Selling Trends) that there’s nothing to get excited about yet. - Ilene 

INSIDER SELLING SOARS TO 2010 HIGH

Insider selling soared 17% for the week ending February 20th and hit a new 2010 high.   Total buying also picked up, but remains near historically low levels.   Total selling reached $956MM while buying totaled just $96.3MM?.  Insider buying has been unusually low throughout the rally as economic fundamentals remain questionable.  Recent signs of recovery have done little to encourage insiders to invest their personal dollars in their own companies.

There were no notable purchases this week.  On the sell side, large sales from CFO’s are also interesting.  In this week’s report we saw large sales from the CFOs of Netflix and Walter’s Industries.  Arguably, there is no one more familiar with corporate financial condition than the CFO so we always take notice of insider sales by CFO’s.  All notable sales are attached:

it12 INSIDER SELLING SOARS TO 2010 HIGH

Notable selling:

it22 INSIDER SELLING SOARS TO 2010 HIGH

Source: Finviz



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INSIDER SELLING SOARS TO 2010 HIGH

Here’s another article on recent insider buying and selling by The Pragmatic Capitalist. He agrees with my assessment over the weekend (Insider Buying and Selling Trends) that there’s nothing to get excited about yet. - Ilene  

INSIDER SELLING SOARS TO 2010 HIGH

Insider selling soared 17% for the week ending February 20th and hit a new 2010 high.   Total buying also picked up, but remains near historically low levels.   Total selling reached $956MM while buying totaled just $96.3MM?.  Insider buying has been unusually low throughout the rally as economic fundamentals remain questionable.  Recent signs of recovery have done little to encourage insiders to invest their personal dollars in their own companies.

There were no notable purchases this week.  On the sell side, large sales from CFO’s are also interesting.  In this week’s report we saw large sales from the CFOs of Netflix and Walter’s Industries.  Arguably, there is no one more familiar with corporate financial condition than the CFO so we always take notice of insider sales by CFO’s.  All notable sales are attached:

it12 INSIDER SELLING SOARS TO 2010 HIGH

Notable selling:

it22 INSIDER SELLING SOARS TO 2010 HIGH

Source: Finviz


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Insider Buying and Selling Trends

Insider Buying and Selling Trends

By Ilene 

A reader recently alerted me to this article, "The inside Track, Commentary: Corporate insiders are betting this is a correction," which suggests that insiders are taking a renewed interest in buying shares of their stock.  

One of the most bearish omens on Wall Street is for corporate insiders, in the face of a market decline, to accelerate the selling of their companies’ shares.

That would mean that they have no confidence that those shares will recover any time soon and have decided to unload their shares, even at depressed prices.

That’s why analysts have been paying close attention to insider behavior since the stock market began correcting in mid January.

Fortunately for the bulls, they did not sell more stock into that decline. On the contrary, recently released data show that insiders have not only cut back on their selling, but also increased the pace of their buying.

This suggests that they believe that their companies’ shares will soon be going back up in price…

For the week ending Jan. 15, for example, which was the week in which the stock market hit its high, this sell-to-buy ratio was 5.15-to-1, which meant that insiders that week were selling more than five shares for every one that they were purchasing.

For the week ending Feb. 12, in contrast, according to the latest issue of Vickers Weekly Insider Report, the ratio was less than half as high, at 2.42-to-1.

Because of this marked improvement in the sell-to-buy ratio, David Coleman, Vickers editor, views "the recent downturn as likely being only a near-term correction. We remain cautious, but are increasingly optimistic about the future performance of the overall markets."

Read more here.>> 

Other than a brief spike in the buy/sell ratio (chart 4 below), I don’t see much support for the thesis that insiders are buying up noteworthy amounts of stock reflected in the insider buying and selling trends. It seems more like there was a brief pause in selling, causing a brief spike in the buy/sell ratio. Take a look at the charts below–buying in dollar amount, buying in share number, selling in dollar amount, and the ratio of buying to selling. It seems to me the conclusion that insiders are showing a build-up in confidence is a bit premature (if not entirely unfounded) based on these data. 

Finviz has more data, go here for a list of recent buys and sells.  (See charts five and six).

 Chart 1. 

Chart 2.

Chart 3.

Chart 4.

 

 

Click on…
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Insider Buying Stages Dramatic Comeback, Nearly 4 Times Greater Than Selling In Prior Week

Insider Buying Stages Dramatic Comeback, Nearly 4 Times Greater Than Selling In Prior Week

Courtesy of Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge

Correction: due to a data compilation error, the ratio of buys to sell was actually lower: 3.8x. Still, The big bulk buys pushed the ratio to a favorable buying balance. Absent the three big block buys, the balance of the buys accounted for only $10 million.

In one of the more dramatic comebacks seen in the past year, insider buying has finally surpassed insider selling, and that by a wide margin. In the prior week insiders bought $390 million worth of stock while selling just $103 million. Yet the bulk of the buying was concentrated in 3 bulk purchases: MatlinPatterson’s acquisition of $300 million worth of FlagStar Bancorp (which judging by its stock price isn’t doing all that hot to date - may be worth a second look), Orbitz Worldwide Director Paul Schorr’s purchase of $50 million in OWW stock and Intermune direct Jonathan Leff’s purchase of $30 million worth of Intermune. Aside from these transactions there were no major notable buys or sells: the largest sale was a $6 million sale of DeVry stock by 10% owner Dennis Kellner.

Data courtesy of FinViz.

 

Attachment Size
Insider Transactions 2.1 - revised.pdf 577.86 KB


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INSIDER BUYING DROPS TO LOWEST LEVELS IN A YEAR

INSIDER BUYING DROPS TO LOWEST LEVELS IN A YEAR

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

As the recession on Main Street continues the negative trends in insider buying get even worse.  Insider buying fell to a new low of $7.8MM on the week.  Selling dropped from $318MM to $293.22MM, but remains at very high levels.  I continue to believe this is a reflection of the ongoing secular bear market as corporate insiders see little to no real recovery in revenues and sustainable organic growth.  Due to this, they have little to no faith in the long-term sustainability of future increases in their own corporation’s stock prices.  This is best reflected in the incredibly lopsided insider transactions.

Notable selling:

it12 INSIDER BUYING DROPS TO LOWEST LEVELS IN A YEAR

Notable buying:

it22 INSIDER BUYING DROPS TO LOWEST LEVELS IN A YEAR

 



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INSIDER TRADING REMAINS BEARISH AS 2010 BEGINS

INSIDER TRADING REMAINS BEARISH AS 2010 BEGINS

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Dancing bears

As we turn the page on a new year the trend in insider trading remains largely the same as it was in 2009.   Although the holiday week was shortened, insiders still found time to unload millions of shares in their own companies.  In the last week of the year insiders sold over $222MM worth of stock while purchasing just $18.5MM worth of stock.

We believe this very bearish data is likely due to the long-term trends executives see within their own companies.  Although insider trading is never a good short-term indicator it is very useful as a long-term indicator.  After all, insiders rarely purchase their own shares with a short time horizon.  Therefore, we believe insiders continue to refuse to invest their own money in their companies due to the negative trends they see in top line growth and job growth.  In other words, they know the margin expansion story is not sustainable in the long-run and that the likelihood of another downturn in the market remains very high over the course of the next few years.

Of the few purchases the Nelson Peltz purchases continue to stand out.  Although he claims not to have an activist interest in the Legg Mason, he continues to pour money into the firm and his history doesn’t tend to be that of an idle investor and board member.

Notable Buying:

it1 INSIDER TRADING REMAINS BEARISH AS 2010 BEGINS

Notable Selling:

it2 INSIDER TRADING REMAINS BEARISH AS 2010 BEGINS

 



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INSIDERS REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF THE RALLY

INSIDERS REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF THE RALLY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The latest insider trading data continues to show a very stark contrast between the buying and selling trends.  For the latest week insiders sold $1.4B in stocks while insiders purchased just $83.17MM.  Selling rose substantially from last week’s reading $933.17MM, but buying also made a substantial increase from last week’s reading of $17.35MM.

It’s difficult to read into the selling data too much as insiders sell stock for a number of different reasons, however, the low level of buying continues to represent the very weak fundamental background that insiders see at their own corporations.  Although the liquidity and margin driven rally has been impressive we still lack many of the organic fundamental components (revenue expansion for instance) that would give insiders the confidence to invest their own dollars in the long-term growth of their own companies.

Among the notable purchases were the Nelson Peltz purchase of Legg Mason and some interesting insider moves at DPL.  Peltz, the billionaire activist, has increased his stake in LM to 4.75% of the company and could be foreshadowing a sale at some point despite LM’s repeated statements that they won’t succumb to such activism.  DPL, on the other hand, saw some much smaller purchases, but it’s always interest when the CFO and CEO of a company invest their own dollars in their companies.  These are hands down the two most knowledgeable executives at any firm.  This one might be worth further investigation….

Notable buys [click on tables to enlarge]:

 INSIDERS REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF THE RALLY

Notable sales:

 INSIDERS REMAIN SKEPTICAL OF THE RALLY

 



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INSIDERS REMAIN DOUBTFUL OF THE RALLY

INSIDERS REMAIN DOUBTFUL OF THE RALLY

Emile Roux treating a

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Few things have been more confounding over the course of the 60% rally than the lack of insider conviction with regards to purchasing their own stocks.  The latest data on insider selling and buying continues to show alarmingly low levels of buying accompanied by very high levels of selling.  As we continue to see the very weak rebound in revenues and non-existent hiring it has become more and more clear why insiders lack conviction in their own shares – after all, without a rebound in hiring and organic revenue growth a sustainable economic recovery remains highly unlikely.

Yesterday’s Business Roundtable Survey confirmed much of this.  Despite increased confidence over Q3 we continue to see very low confidence in future hiring and spending.  Hence, the likelihood of a long and slow recovery remains very high:

“The economy is in the throes of a long transition back to health; recovery will be long, extending beyond 2010,” said Ivan G. Seidenberg, Chairman of Business Roundtable and Chairman and CEO of Verizon Communications. “The outlook of our CEOs reflects that reality: we see noticeable gains in sales and capital spending, but employment growth continues to lag.”

 INSIDERS REMAIN DOUBTFUL OF THE RALLY

See the full BR release here.

Source: BR

 


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Phil's Favorites

How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America

The introduction to the Atlantic article "How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America" is from a private correspondence with my friend Tom. - Ilene 

Tom:  From a sociological point of view, I think the following article is insightful. Don Peck talks about the impact of unemployment on people, communities, and cultures. His forecasts are based on an assumption that the US economy will take a long time to correct our current joblessness...



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Quad Witching Expiration and a Pullback from the Long Term Trend

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The front month on the SP futures has now switched from March to June as a part of the Quad Witching Expiration. (Technically it switched last week, but for charting purposes I made the switch last night.) The June Futures have essentially the same formations as did March, it's just that the earlier months have few trades to mark them. This is the first serious test for US equities since mid-February, as it has been on a spectacular rally streak, no doubt fueled by excess liquidity applied to a selling exhaustion in the funds. Curiously not among corporate...

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Options and My Patience Expire Today

Well now we're officially cashed out!


As I always do before options expiration I reviewed our Buy List, which, this quarter, is a list of 37 stocks we've been playing since late December and, sadly, after reviewing 37 of our favorite investments very carefully this week - I could only conclude that cashing them out was the only decision I could be comfortable with this week. Of 66 trades we had on our 37 stocks, 64 are winners with an average return since 2/8 of 28% - since most of the trades were designed to make 40% for the year - it just seems silly not to take the money and run now, on March 19th.


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Best Buy Option Investors Condone Broker Upgrade in Bullish Action

Today’s tickers: BBY, DNDN, GLD, BAC, AET, BA & NBR

BBY - Best Buy Co., Inc. – Shares of the world’s largest electronics retailer rallied 2% to $41.25 during the trading session after receiving an upgrade to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs Group where analysts increased BBY’s target share price to $47.00 from $44.00. Options traders employed a few different bullish tactics to position for continued upward movement in the price of the underlying stock through expiration in April. Plain-vanilla call buyers targeted the April $44 strike to purchase 5,100 calls for an average premium of $0.55 apiece. These investors stand ready to accrue profits if Best Buy’s share price increases 8% from the current value to exceed the effective breakeven point on the calls at $44.55 by expirati...



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Insiders: March to Exit

By Ilene

Let's take a look at Insider Buying and Selling over the last week or so. These are screen shots from Finviz - the significant buys against a green background first and significant sells against the pink background second.  All the buys fit into my screen shot but the sells did not.  Click here to see all the sells.  

Note that the largest buy in the group, for KITD was at a price of 9.73 (KITD is currently at 11.54). The buy was part of an Equity Offering rather than an open market purchase. Tuzman Kaleil Isaza's (KITD's Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer) history of buys is http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

OpTrader


Swing trading portfolio - week of March 15th 2010

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader

...

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