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The 15 Must-See Charts That Explain The Global Economy

Morgan Stanley: The 15 Must-See Charts That Explain The Global Economy

Courtesy of Vince Veneziani at Clusterstock/Business Insider 

Google Earth moneybag

Morgan Stanley just released a research report that painstakingly details the current state of our global economy.

Inside the 88-page report is a section called "Charts You Can’t Miss." It’s broken down in the following order of countries: Global economy, Europe, Asia (excluding Japan), and Japan. These charts focus on the underlying issues that truly affect our economy.

Credit spreads are at their highest levels ever post-Lehman and Germany’s industrial production is falling. Clearly there’s cause for concern.

If you’ve ever wanted a quick, comprehensive breakdown of the global marketplace, here’s your chance.

Check out these can’t miss charts >


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Tsunami Fears In Hawaii Following Massive Earthquake In Chile

Tsunami Fears In Hawaii Following Massive Earthquake In Chile

Courtesy of Business Insider 

ocean waves tbi

(AP) A tsunami warning was in effect for Hawaii Saturday following a massive earthquake that struck central Chile.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center also issued a tsunami advisory for the coast of California and an Alaskan coastal area from Kodiak to Attu islands.

The first waves were expected to arrive in Hawaii at 11:19 a.m. Saturday (4:19 p.m. EST).

The center said a tsunami has been generated that could cause damage along coastlines of all islands in the Hawaii. It said a tsunami in California and Alaska was possible.

The Ewa Beach, Hawaii-based center called for "urgent action to protect lives and property" in Hawaii, which is among 53 nations and territories subject to tsunami warnings.

"The main thing is we want everyone to take this event seriously," said Charles McCreery, director of the center. 

See Also: 

Chile Struck By Massive 8.8 Magnitude Quake

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock/Business Insider

Chart

Chile was struck by an enormous 8.8 magnitude quake Saturday, which was luckily 200 miles from Santiago.

Still, tsunami warnings have been issued on the coast:

Reuters:

A tsunami warning was issued for Chile and Peru by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and a tsunami watch was issued for Ecuador, Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Antarctica.

Soon after, the U.S. Geological Survey said the quake had generated a tsunami that may have been destructive along the Chilean coast near the epicenter. The USGS said the earthquake struck 56 miles northeast of the city of Concepcion at a depth of 34 miles at 3:34 a.m./1:34 EST.

Its magnitude was initially reported at 8.3 then 8.5. An earthquake of magnitude 8 or over is classified as a "great" earthquake that can cause "tremendous damage," according to the USGS website.

The earthquake that devastated Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince on January 12 was rated at magnitude 7.0.

Read more here > 


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Scott Brown Is The Reason We’re On An Export Collision Course With China

Scott Brown Is The Reason We’re On An Export Collision Course With China

scott brown, tbiBy Andy Xie, courtesy of Clusterstock

From Caing

U.S. President Barack Obama dramatically altered policy direction during his first State of the Union address by announcing plans to focus fully on creating jobs while doubling exports in five years. This could put the United States on a collision course with China’s export strategy. And a head-on crash, possibly centered on China’s foreign exchange rate policy, might occur before America’s mid-term elections in November.

No one wants confrontation, especially at such a critical time for global trade, the world’s recovering economy and China’s property market. But a changing political mood is steering Washington into Beijing’s lane. China can respond by turning the wheel before it’s too late.

The trigger for Obama’s policy turnaround was the defeat of the Democratic Party in the Massachusetts election for a U.S. Senate seat left vacant when Ted Kennedy died.

Read the full article at Caing --> 

See Also:

The US Fiscal Problem Is A Ticking Timebomb, And Obama Lacks The Political Capital To Deal With It

The Entire World Is Screwed Without A US Recovery

China’s Mercantilist Policies Are Screwing Us Out Of 1.4 Million U.S. Jobs 


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Confirmed: US Officials Say Terrorists Who May Have US Passports Are Plotting Another Attack Against US

Confirmed: US Officials Say Terrorists Who May Have US Passports Are Plotting Another Attack Against US

Courtesy of John Carney at Clusterstock/The Business Insider

gulf aden yemen middleeast saudiCredible intelligence has emerged that the branch of Al Qaeda Yemen is plotting another attack against the United States and U.S. interests abroad.

A senior U.S. counterterrorism official confirmed the terror plot to a number of news outlets, including the Daily News and Fox News.

The intelligence doesn’t provides specifics about time, place or method of attack. But officials are taking the threat seriously. The Yemeni group is said to have been emboldened by the Christmas Day attack.

"Our concerns have intensified," the official told The News.

Frighteningly, Fox reports that some of the suspected terrorists may have US passports.

From Fox:

Al Qaeda in Yemen and the Al Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, known as Al Shabaab — translated as Mujahadeen Youth — are described as having "shared interests and shared goals."

U.S. counterterrorism officials say clear connections now can be traced between the two terrorist groups and they are not ruling out the possibility that they are working together to attack U.S. interests.

U.S. officials also remain concerned about two dozen Somali Americans who disappeared into the Al Shabaab training camps in Somalia in the last 18 months. Their American passports would allow them to reenter the United States.

 


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OPEC Has Way Too Much Oil For 2010

OPEC Has Way Too Much Oil For 2010

Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock/The Business Insider

According the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest energy outlook, while world energy consumption is expected to grow in 2010, it will only be adding 1.1 million barrels of consumption and will remain below its past peak consumption.

eia

This tepid demand growth will butt against production increases for many non-OPEC oil producers, which means that OPEC will be under substantial pressure to limit its output, and obviously will.

Yet this will require massive discipline for the member nations given that OPEC’s surplus crude oil production capacity will actually rise in 2010, after a huge increase in surplus capacity during 2009. 2010 will see the worst OPEC overcapacity situation since 2002, as shown below.

EIA: Through the forecast period, OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity should remain in excess of 4 million bbl/d, versus an average of 2.8 million bbl/d seen over the 1998-2008 period.

eia

See Also:

 


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Iran Says It’s Ditching The Dollar Completely

But not to worry, it will hardly be noticed. – Ilene

Iran Says It’s Ditching The Dollar Completely

Courtesy of Joe Weisenthal at Clusterstock’s Green Sheet

Second-rate petrol state and paper tiger Iran is ditching the dollar.

According to the Tehran Times, the country announced that it plans to hold no dollars as part of its forex reserves, and that all of its oil transactions shall take place in other currencies.

Should you be trembling? No.

The TPOI (Trade Promotion Organization Of Iran) has also announced that since October 2007 Iran has sold 85 percent of its oil exports in currencies other than the U.S. dollar and is determined to sell the remaining 15 percent in other currencies such as the UAE dirham.

Ok, so this was mainly the case already, and now they’ll do marginally less business in dollars.

tehrantimes.png

 

See Also:

Is Obama’s Iran Policy Just Bush 2.0?

Iran Test-Fires Two Missiles

Raw Footage Of Iran’s Riots (NSFW)

 


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Sorry, There’s No Way Oil Runs Back To $150

Sorry, There’s No Way Oil Runs Back To $150

oil burning tbiCourtesy of Lawrence Delevingne at Clusterstock

We found another oil bear, but this one’s not quite as extreme as Robert Prechter (who thinks oil will crash to $10).

Edward Morseis, Managing Director of Louis Capital Markets and an ex-State Department energy official, argues in the upcoming issue of Foreign Affairs that oil prices won’t shoot back to the moon, as key producers boost production and capacity:

 …Last year’s high prices and the recession have severely damped demand, and the growth of new production capacity, especially in Saudi Arabia, is buoying supplies.

The rapid fall and then rebound in oil prices over the past year surprised many people. But it was not unusual: commodities markets are cyclical by nature and have a history punctuated by sudden turning points. Although this generally makes it difficult to forecast prices, it is safe to say that commodities markets will remain lower over the next few years than they have been over the past five. In the oil industry, the most important new factor that accounts for low prices is the return of surplus production capacity among the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for the first time since 2002–3.

oil

Later on, Moresis astutely points out it’s not in OPEC’s interest to spike oil. "[Saudi Arabia] will likely use its surplus capacity to keep prices moderate in order to spur global economic growth, maintain long-term demand for oil, and deter investments in alternative sources of energy."

Low oil prices is great news, so long as the administration remains focused on its alternative energy plans. Foreign Affairs suggests cheap oil presents an opportunity "to make energy markets less volatile and strike arrangements with producing countries that will better serve the United States’ long-term interests."

If we pull a redux of the 80′s though, and forget about the energy problem, lower oil prices could actually be our enemy.

Robert PrechterSee Also:

Prechter: Oil Will Crash To $10 A Barrel

 

 

 


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Phil's Favorites

News You Can Use, 4-25-15 P.M.

The "War On Cash" Migrates To Switzerland (Acting-Man)

Banks Increasingly Refuse Cash Withdrawals – Switzerland Joins the Fun

The war on cash is proliferating globally. It appears that the private members of the world’s banking cartels are increasingly joining the fun, even if it means trampling on the rights of their customers.

Yesterday we came across an article at Zerohedge, in which Dr. Salerno of the Mises Institute notes that JP Morgan Chase has apparently joined the “war on cash”, by “restricting the use of cash in selected markets, restricting borrowers from making cash payments on credit cards, mortgages, equity lines and auto loans, as well as prohibiting storage of cash in safe deposit boxes&rdqu...



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Zero Hedge

Baltimore Protests Erupt; Mayor Asks Fans To Stay Inside Ballpark For Own Safety - Live Feed

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Following a a planned demonstration over how police handled the arrest of Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old Baltimore man who suffered a spinal injury at some point after he was detained by police on April 12 and died a week later; hundreds of protesters confronted lines of police. Objects were thrown, stores pillaged, and at least five police cars have been damaged. The Mayor of Baltimore has asked fans to remain inside the ballpark "due to ongoing public safety concerns." Ferguson 2.0?

Uhhh... #CamdenYards pic.twitter.com/dTy4SpP2Av...



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Chart School

Price waves that signal market direction

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Question: Do price waves answer the Continuation or Reversal question?More from RTT TvAnswer: Yes when you understand Wyckoff logic, more so if you understand Richard Wyckoff law off 'Effort vs Results' and how it supports the Richard Wyckoff law of 'Supply and Demand'.

AMZN price chart with waves colored (the daily price waves are the same formula as PnF wave/bar calculation below, allows sync of price action).

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

Auto PnF chart from our Swing Pop out charts.

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.

NOTE: readtheticker.com does allow users to load ...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar slipping below support, say Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

King Dollar has been on a role since last summer, up over 20% in less than a year. When looking back on the US$, the rally has been rare and nearly historic. Majority of the rally took place inside the steep rising channel above. Over the past month the US$ might have put in a double top. Over the past few days, the US$ has slipped a little below rising support at red arrow above.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

As you can see from the table abo...



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Digital Currencies

Why Bitcoin's male domination will be its downfall

Here's an interesting argument by Felix Salmon, although I think he is taking two correct observations and mistakenly attributing a cause-and-effect relationship to them: Bitcoin is going nowhere because women are not involved.

More likely, in my opinion, women are not involved in bitcoin because bitcoin is going nowhere (and they know it). Or maybe, simply, bitcoin is going nowhere and women are not involved. 

Why Bitcoin's male domination will be its downfall 

By Felix Salmon

Nathaniel Popper’s new book, Digital Gold, is as close as you can get to being the definitive account of the history of Bitcoin. As its subtitle proclaims, the book tells the story of the “misfits” (the first generation of hacker-l...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 20th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Earnings and GDP temporarily take investor spotlight off the Fed

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

As we get into the heart of earnings season and anticipate the GDP report for Q1, the investor spotlight has been taken off the Federal Reserve and timing of its first interest rate hike, at least temporarily. Even though Q1 economic growth will undoubtedly look weak, the future remains bright for the U.S economy – even though many multinationals will struggle with top-line growth due to the strong dollar – and any near-term selloff resulting from weak economic or earnings news should be bought yet again in expectation of better results for the balance of the year. High sector correlations remain a concern, reflectin...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

Kimble Charts: South Korea's EWY

By Ilene 

Chris Kimble likes the iShares MSCI South Korea Capped (EWY), but only if it breaks out of a pennant pattern. This South Korean equities ETF has underperformed the S&P 500 by 60% since 2011.

You're probably familiar with its largest holding, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, and at least several other represented companies such as Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp.

...



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Mapping The Market

S&P 500 Leverage and Hedges Options - Part 2

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard.

In my last post (Part 1 of this article), I looked at alternative ETFs that could be used as hedges against the corrections that we have seen during that long 2 year bull run. Looking at the results, it seems that for short (less than a month) corrections, a VIX ETF like VXX could actually be a viable candidate to hedge or speculate on the way down. Another alternative ETF was TMF, a long Treasuries ETF which banks on the fact that when markets go down, money tends to pack into treasuries viewed as safe instruments. In some cases, TMF even outperformed the usual hedging instruments like leveraged ETFs. There could of course be other factors at play since some of 2014 corrections were related to geopolitical events which are certain...

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Pharmboy

2015 - Biotech Fever

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members - well, what a year for biotechs!   The Biotech Index (IBB) is up a whopping 40%, beating the S&P hands down!  The healthcare sector has had a number of high flying IPOs, and beat the Tech Sector in total nubmer of IPOs in the past 12 months.  What could go wrong?

Phil has given his Secret Santa Inflation Hedges for 2015, and since I have been trying to keep my head above water between work, PSW, and baseball with my boys...it is time that something is put together for PSW on biotechs in 2015.

Cancer and fibrosis remain two of the hottest areas for VC backed biotechs to invest their monies.  A number of companies have gone IPO which have drugs/technologies that fight cancer, includin...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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