Put Sellers and Call Buyers Prepare for Dell Bid for Brocade
by Option Review - June 2nd, 2011 5:00 pm
Today’s tickers: BRCD, IP, APOL & DHI
BRCD - Brocade Communications Systems Inc. – Options volume is heavy in switcher-maker Brocade after a broker note predicted that it fits the bill for a bid from Dell. Shares in Brocade reached a 52-week high after the analyst noted that cash-rich Dell filed a debt-shelf earlier in the week of $3.4 billion or just about enough to buy Brocade if it wanted to change course and enter the networking market. One investor appeared to sell 11,400 put options expiring July at the $6.00 strike presumably on the assumption that its shares remain a hotbed of speculation for the next several weeks. The analyst’s note put a price tag on the stock of $10.00 underpinning a surge in the stock, which rose to $7.20 at the day’s best. Call options expiring next month were also well bid with the $8.00 strike proving most popular. Around 25,000 options granting the right to buy were exchanged with a current price of just 20 cents indicating a one-in-four chance of success over the next five weeks.
IP - International Paper – Notable activity in options on the paper-maker indicate one investor giving up on a good idea. Options volume of 20,935 on Thursday was made up of just two trades involving 10,000 lots each in what appears to be the closure of a losing calendar spread. On May 19 when shares in International Paper were trading one dollar higher than today at $31.67 an investor bought the same amount of call options expiring in July to buy calls expiring in January. The trade involved the $32 strike price in July and the $36 strike in January with the investor hoping for a steady climb in IP’s shares in the meantime. At the time the trade cost the…
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DiggDell Call Options Active in Afternoon Trading
by Phil - October 12th, 2010 5:45 pm
Today’s tickers: DELL, AGU, EEM, GERN, SPY, IP, SFD & CHS
DELL - Dell, Inc. – Speculation that Michael Dell, Chairman and CEO of Dell, Inc., may buy the computer company or pay a special dividend lifted shares of the world’s third-largest PC maker this afternoon and spurred demand for out-of-the-money call options. Dell’s shares rallied nearly 3.00% today to touch an intraday high of $14.14, but are currently up 1.50% at $13.94 as of 3:05 p.m. Options traders honed in on October $14 strike calls, exchanging more than 23,100 of those contracts by 3:00 p.m., versus previously existing open interest of 10,783 calls at that strike. It looks like roughly 11,800 of those call options were purchased at an average premium of $0.21 a-pop. Call buyers make money if Dell’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $14.21 by October expiration on Friday. Other optimistic signaling on the stock involved the sale of some 2,100 in-the-money puts at the October $14 strike where investors received an average premium of $0.34 per contract. Options implied volatility is up 15.2% to stand at 41.52% with less than one hour remaining before the final bell.
AGU - Agrium, Inc. – Shares of Canada’s second-largest fertilizer producer rallied as much as 3.2% today to reign in an intraday high of $85.66 after corn futures jumped to a near two-year high. Agrium was upgraded to ‘sector outperformer’ from ‘sector performer’ at CIBC World Markets where analysts upped their target share price on the company to $100.00 from $70.00. One options trader was prepared for the bullish move in the Agrium’s shares and opted to book profits, as well as extend optimism on the stock in the November contract. It looks like the investor purchased 10,000 calls at the November $85 strike for an average premium…
INNOVATION: What made America great is now Killing her!
by ilene - August 12th, 2010 8:20 pm
INNOVATION: What made America great is now Killing her!
"Creative Destruction is Secular not Cyclical"
Courtesy of Gordon T. Long
What made America great was her unsurpassed ability to innovate. Equally important was also her ability to rapidly adapt to the change that this innovation fostered. For decades the combination has been a self reinforcing growth dynamic with innovation offering a continuously improving standard of living and higher corporate productivity levels, which the US quickly embraced and adapted to.
This in turn financed further innovation. No country in the world could match the American culture that flourished on technology advancements in all areas of human endeavor. However, something serious and major has changed across America. Daily, more and more are becoming acutely aware of this, but few grasp exactly what it is. It is called Creative Destruction.
It turns out that what made America great is now killing her!
Our political leaders are presently addressing what they perceive as an intractable cyclical recovery problem when in fact it is a structural problem that is secular in nature. Like generals fighting the last war with outdated perceptions, we face a new and daunting challenge. A challenge that needs to be addressed with the urgency and scope of a Marshall plan that saved Europe from the ravages of a different type of destruction. We need a modern US centric Marshall plan focused on growth, but orders of magnitude larger than the one in the 1940’s. A plan even more brash than Kennedy’s plan in the 60’s to put a man of the moon by the end of the decade. America needs to again think and act boldly. First however, we need to see the enemy. As the great philosopher Pogo said: “I saw the enemy and it was I”.
THE PROBLEM IS NOT CYCLICAL, IT IS SECULAR.
The dotcom bubble ushered in a change in America that is still reverberating through the nation and around the globe. The Internet unleashed productivity opportunities of unprecedented proportions in addition to new business models, new ways of doing business and completely new and never before realized markets. Ten years ago there was no such position as a Web Master; having a home PC was primarily for doing word processing and creating spreadsheets; Apple made MACs; and ordering on-line was a quaint experiment for…
Natural Gas Options Trader Enacts Bullish Risk Reversal
by Option Review - February 16th, 2010 4:32 pm
Today’s tickers: UNG, IP, EEM, CAH, TRA, UAUA, USO, WFMI, BRK.B & ANF
UNG – United States Natural Gas ETF – Shares of the natural gas exchange-traded fund, which mirrors the price and performance of natural gas, are down 1.85% to $9.67 with just under one hour remaining in the trading session. Options traders initiated bullish plays in the March contract despite the dip lower in the price of the underlying shares. It looks like one investor initiated a bullish risk reversal to position for a rebound in the price per UNG share by March expiration. The trader sold 8,250 in-the-money puts at the March $10 strike for a premium of $0.64 each in order to offset the cost of buying 8,250 calls at the same strike for $0.40 apiece. The trader pockets a net credit of $0.24 per contract on the reversal, which he keeps if shares of the fund trade above $10.00 by expiration day. Additional profits are available to the upside if and when the price per share exceeds $10.00 apiece.
IP – International Paper Co. – Global paper and packaging firm, International Paper Company, enticed bullish options traders to initiate optimistic positions in the March contract as shares of the underlying stock jumped 6% in late afternoon trading to $23.92. Plain-vanilla call buying took place at the March $25 strike where upwards of 10,000 contracts were purchased for an average premium of $0.45 apiece. Call buyers stand ready to accrue profits should IP’s shares rally another 6.40% over the current value of the stock to surpass the effective breakeven point on the calls at $25.45 by March expiration.
EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Shares of the emerging markets exchange-traded fund, which generally corresponds to the price of the MSCI Emerging Markets index that was created by MSCI as a benchmark for international stock performance, rallied 2.30% to $39.32 this afternoon. June contract options activity on the EEM suggests shares may stagnate near the current price through expiration in four months. It looks like options traders sold straddles in order to pocket premium on the sale of both calls and puts. Investors sold approximately 9,100 calls at the June $39 strike for an average premium of $2.95 apiece and sold 9,100 puts at the same strike for a premium of $2.65 each. Gross premium enjoyed by straddle-sellers amounts to $5.60 per contract. Investors…
PSW Rewind of 2009 – The First Quarter
by Phil - January 1st, 2010 2:42 pm
Thursday’s close was very exciting, wasn’t it?
Well it sure was for us as my 10:01 Alert to Members was a play on the DIA Jan $103 puts at .56. Thanks to the late afternoon dip, they finished the day at .90 (up 60%) after peaking out at .95, a very nice win to close off the year. That was the only Alert trade all week as this market has been too tough to call and we don’t make trades just for the hell of it. I had been sniping at DIA puts all week expecting a pay-off but Thursday it finally came together.
Of course, I also strongly advocated hedging on Thursday morning and listed 4 trade ideas in the morning post to hedge ourselves against the possibility of just such a drop so don’t say you haven’t been warned. Whether there will be follow-through on Monday or a full reversal remains to be seen and, even if I knew, I wouldn’t tell you here because this is a review – predictions are another article entirely.
We treaded very cautiously into last year because our PSW Holiday Retail Survey was not looking very pretty so it was no surprise to us, on Dec 26th, when we got some horrific retail reports. These are, of course, the same reports that we "beat" this year – but not by much. Dec 29th was Monday and Israeli jets attacked Hamas targets in the Gaza sending oil flying up to $48 a barrel. That gave us a nice commodity rally into the close of the year but January 2nd was a Friday and we decided (fortunately) to take the money and run on our long plays, holding open our main cover of SKF Jan $120s at $4.35, which hit $80 later in the month (up 1,732%) and USO Feb $32 puts at $3.40, which hit $10.50 in the Feb dip (up 208%) so, on the whole, not too differently positioned than we are now, coming into the new year. Visually 2009 looked a little like this:
January – Waiting for Obama, or Something, to Change
We began January much the same way we ended December with my Wed Jan 7th comment being: "We call it "Testy Tuesday" for a reason and our 5% rule was tested twice during the day but the market failed to…
Stock Market Crash – Year One Review III – March Madness!
by Phil - September 10th, 2009 5:51 pm
We left off in Part II with our Feb 23rd Big Chart Review.
Even though I said: "Once again we are in a market that environment that reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homer jumps over a gorge, crashes, is taken up by a helicopter (Ben) smashing against the wall along the way only to fall all the way from the top again. Pain, pain and more pain every time we try to get long" – we still weren’t fully prepared for the devastation that was to follow as the Dow fell from 7,500 to 6,500 in the next 10 days. My commentary on the environment the next day was:
According to Cap, someone on the YHOO message board was counting the number of times CNBC talking heads said "nationalization" this morning and, as of 8:15, they were up to 300 times. Sadly, this is the fear-mongering that is driving the markets to new lows while Cramer continues to keep his sheeple out of protective ETFs like SKF. So you have the man’s network telling you financials are going to zero while dog and pony boy tells his minions to sell ALL the financials, causing them to go to zero - even though they could hold on and protect themselves with conta-funds, if Cramer didn’t spend 3 days a week convincing his viewers contra-funds are poison. I’ve never seen anything like this outside of a racketerring investigation. Speaking of racketeering - Dennis Kucinich nailed it when he pinned that charge on Paulson and company back in November.
Our wall of worry continues to be a steep one. After yesterday’s failure we do not expect too much out of today, we’ll be happy to just see a bottom at this point but it’s looking a little more likely that we’re heading into a capitulation event that can take us down to frightening levels. The 60% line is a line the markets dare not cross but, as I pointed out yesterday, we already lost the SOX and the Nikkei, with the Hang Seng and the BSE hanging on by a thread. Let’s take these levels very seriously, if the administration can’t turn it around this week – the downward momentum can easily pick up steam.
I’ll spare you the details other than to say we DIDN’T turn it around that week and the downward momentum DID pick up steam. I was at war with…
Satyam Computer Attracts Bullish Option Strategies
by Option Review - August 31st, 2009 5:22 pm
Today’s tickers: SAY, UNG, DVN, BJS, AXP, & IP
SAY - The global IT solutions provider popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after bullish call activity was observed in the near-term September contract. Shares of the firm have rallied higher by more than 16% during the session to stand at the current price of $6.37. Investors appear to have purchased approximately 4,000 calls at the September 7.5 strike for an average premium of 35 cents apiece. Shares of SAY would need to surge 23% higher in order for traders long the calls to begin to amass profits above the breakeven price of $7.85. Bullish sentiment spread to the October 7.5 strike where another 1,600 calls were scooped up for a premium of 51 cents. Option implied volatility on Satyam has exploded upwards from an intraday low of 74% to the current reading of 120%. We note that the 15,000 contracts exchanged on the stock today represent more than 54% of the total existing open interest on SAY of 27,735 lots. – Satyam Computer Service Limited –
UNG - Shares of the natural gas exchange-traded fund have slipped 4.4% lower today to reach a 5-year low of $10.64. Despite the present weakness in UNG, one investor was seen making far-term bullish bets on the fund by targeting the April 2010 contract. It appears that the trader established a bullish reversal play by shedding 3,000 puts at the April 10 strike for 1.85 apiece in order to purchase 3,000 calls at the higher April 11 strike for 1.82 each. The trader receives a net credit of 3 pennies per contract and has positioned himself to add to his gains if shares rally higher than $11.00 by expiration. The short put position indicates that the investor is happy to have shares put to him at an effective price of $8.15 in the event that the put options land in-the-money by expiration. Shares need only remain higher than $10.00 for this individual to retain the 3 cent credit indefinitely. – United States Natural Gas ETF –
DVN - The independent energy company appeared on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner following contrarian options activity in the January 2011 contract. Shares of DVN may have slipped more than 2% lower to $61.15 today, but did not deter one option trader from initiating a bull call spread on the stock. Hoping…
Simon Properties upgrade leaves option traders with butterflies
by Option Review - April 15th, 2009 5:11 pm
Today’s tickers: SPG, AMR, EEM, MDR, EFA, EWZ, IP & M
SPG Simon Property Group, Inc. – The real estate investment trust (REIT) has experienced a significant rally of more than 9% to $42.16 today and was added to the ‘conviction buy’ list at Goldman Sachs. SPG appeared on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after one investor established a long butterfly spread in the July contract. The purchase of 5,000 puts at the July 20 strike for 90 cents apiece (wing 1) and the purchase of 5,000 puts at the July 40 strike for 6.70 each (wing 2) were spread against the sale of 10,000 puts at the July 30 strike price for a premium of 2.80 per contract (body). The net cost of the transaction amounts to 2.00 (0.90 [wing 1] + 6.70 [wing 2] – (2.80*2 [body]) = 2.00). This investor will gain the maximum potential profit of 8.00 if shares settle at $30.00 by expiration. This strategy implies that he is hoping shares will fall from the current level through the breakeven point located at $38.00, at which point profits begin to amass to the downside. Should shares continue to rally rather than plummet, the most this trader can lose is the 2.00 he paid for the strategy. In order to reel in the full 8.00 of potential profits, shares would need to decline by 29% from the current price.
AMR AMR Corporation – American Airlines parent corporation, AMR, has experienced a huge share price rally as the stock jumped by more than 16% today to $4.90 after the company revealed narrower than expected first-quarter losses. AMR continues to struggle in this recessionary climate, but looks for travel demand to rise by the middle of the year. Option investors welcomed the better-than-expected results and were seen taking bullish stances on the company. At the May 5.0 strike price, 10,800 calls were purchased for an average premium of 70 cents per contract. One investor sold 6,850 puts at the May 4.0 strike price for 30 cents apiece in order to fund the purchase of 6,850 of the calls picked up at the May 5.0 strike. Finally, bullish investors looking to fly higher selected the May 6.0 strike where more than 3,400 calls were coveted for an average premium of 28 cents. Shares would need to continue on the up-and-up and gain another 22% in order…
Pfizer options active in late trading
by Option Review - March 24th, 2009 4:58 pm
Today’s tickers: PFE, HPQ, EFA, C, AGN, VIX, LTD, XHB, SYK, IP & TGT
PFE Pfizer Inc. – Shares of the pharmaceutical company have declined slightly by less than 1% to stand at $13.93. Pfizer edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner late in the afternoon after some interesting trades went through in the January 2011 contract. At the 15 strike one investor initiated a sold straddle by shedding 10,000 calls for a premium of 2.05 as well as 10,000 puts for 3.60 apiece. The gross premium enjoyed on the trade amounts to 5.65 and is retained in full if shares settle at $15 by expiration. This trader is expecting shares to remain mid-way between the 52-week low for Pfizer of $11.62 and the 52-week high at $20.32. In contrast, a bullish investor purchased 11,500 calls at the January 20 strike price for 80 cents per contract. This investor is hoping to see shares rally by 49% over the next 2 years to arrive at or above a breakeven share price of $20.80.
HPQ Hewlett-Packard Co. – Shares of the technology company have dipped slightly by less than 1% to $31.08. We observed a call-to-put ratio of about 3.0 which implies that call options traded three times for each put traded. However, the calls were nearly all sold. The November contract stood out with 8,400 calls sold at the 35 strike price for an average premium of 2.80. Another 11,000 calls were shed for 2.00 at the November 37.5 strike price. No open interest was previously recorded at either of these strikes, and therefore these calls were sold short by investors. Moving into the January 2010 contract, it appears that one individual sold 3,750 in-the-money calls at the 30 strike price for a premium of 5.50, while purchasing the same number of puts at the 32.5 strike for 5.80 apiece. This transaction leaves the trader with a net cost of 30 cents and a breakeven share price at which profits begin to amass on the downside at $32.20. Thus, the overall tapestry woven together by option trades depicted some species of large bear. One trade initiated in January ran counter to rest as one investor purchased 12,500 calls at the 32.5 strike price for a hefty premium of 4.35. Shares would need to rally by about 19% from the current price in order for the investor…
Dividend cut sparks put buying at Alcoa
by Option Review - March 17th, 2009 4:28 pm
Today’s tickers: AA, RIO, TGT, HD, IP, VIX, ORCL, COGO & FRED
AA Alcoa Inc. – The producer of aluminum has dropped more than 9% to $5.55 after the company slashed its dividend by 3 cents in an effort to cut back on capital spending. AA hopes these measures will help strengthen its position in the case of a lengthy economic downturn. Most of the action in options-land occurred on the put side as investors seek to profit from declines in the share price. Fresh buying was observed at the March 5.0 strike price where around 25,000 puts were picked up for an average of 15 cents apiece out of the 47,000 puts traded at the strike. Shares of Alcoa would need to fall another 12% by Friday in order to reach the breakeven price of $4.85 – the price at which put-buyers begin to amass profits. Similar purchases were observed at the 5.0 strike in April where some 53,000 puts changed hands throughout the day at an average premium of 52 cents per contract. Interestingly, one investor was seen looking for recovery in the October contract by purchasing 4,000 calls at the 7.5 strike for 1.10 each. We believe this transaction was funded by the sale of 8,000 calls at the April 7.5 strike price for a premium of 23 cents each. This investor does not see Alcoa rebounding in the next 30 days, but he is optimistic that shares will increase by about 35% in order for the calls to land in-the-money by expiration in October. In stark contrast to the optimism seen in the previous trade, one investor picked up 12,000 puts at the 2.5 strike price in January 2010 at a cost of 50 cents per contract. This trade predicts nothing but doom-and-gloom for Alcoa all the way through to the start of next year.
RIO Companhia Vale do Rio Doce ADS – Shares of the metals and mining company have rallied 2% to $13.73 perhaps due to the selection of a new chairman-designate who stated that his immediate focus would be centered on finalizing the transaction with Chinalco (Aluminum Corp. of China). Global economic conditions continue to thrash commodity markets and Rio Tinto sees little chance of a rebound this year. Thus, the new chairman (Jan du Plessis) is hoping that finalized deal – which would increase Chinalco’s stake in RIO to 18% – will…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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