Posts Tagged ‘Jackson Hole’

Friday Fedapalooza – 8 Fed Speakers in One Day + Draghi!

Hang on to your hats!  

Janet Yellen speaks at 10 am, EST and she's scheduled to discuss her "Labor Dashboard" and, from that, the pontiffs will then attempt to read the tea leaves of Future Fed action.  She'll likely note that the Labor Market is generally improving but that there is no immediate reason to raise rates.  The definition of immediate will be much debated.  

If that does not confuse us enough, we will hear from 7 of the Fed Dwarves as well including Williams, Lockhart, Plosser and Bullard.  Draghi takes the stage at 2pm, EST.  In case Yellen's empty promises don't do the trick, Draghi is sure to have even emptier ones – whatever it takes to end the week on a positive note!  

Still, we're playing the day bearish (we added bear plays in yesterday's Live Member Chat and we're short /YM below 17,000 along with other Futures) as it's hard to imagine what Yellen and company can possibly say that they haven't already said.  Unlimited amounts of FREE MONEY forever is already priced into market expectations – anything less will be a severe disappointment.  Any firm mention of ending QE in the next 12 months can send the markets down sharply.  As "clarified" by Goldman Sachs:

 

With opinions mixed as to whether or not Jackson Hole will be the forum for Yellen to say something new, many are trying to figure out if it is a buy the rumor and then buy more after the fact event, a buy the rumor sell the fact event, or a do nothing with the rumors and then buy the fact if the USD is actually rallying after the fact event.

 

According to Zero Hedge, only "Full Doveish" statements are likely to lift the markets at this point.  Those would be for Yellen to:

1) Argue that the


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Thrilling Thursday – Will Jackson Hole Give us S&P 2,000?

SPY 5 MINUTEI could take today off.  

Why?  Because I already wrote this article last month, on a Thursday, when the S&P was at 1,988 and topped out at 1,991, which was $199.06 on SPY and, as you can see from Dave Fry's chart, SPY topped out at $199.16 yesterday (before plunging back to $198.90 on strong volume into the close).  

Will this time be different?  I certainly hope so because last time, we plunged about 5%, back to 1,904 over the next 10 sessions and it's taken us another 10 to claw our way back for another attempt at an all-time high.

In our Live Member Chat this morning, we shorted the run-up in the Futures at Dow 16,990 (/YM), S&P 1,985 (/ES), Nasdaq 4,045 (/NQ) and Russell 1,155 (/TF) because, as I said to our Members:

I'm sorry but I simply can't reconcile this news with what's going on in the markets so I'm going to continue to lose money hedging to make sure we keep what we have.  The alternative is going to cash but there is simply no way I can endorse getting more bullish on this market at this point.  

NDX WEEKLYOne major difference this time is we DON'T have money flowing out of SPY (as much), as we did last month and we DO have the Fed's Jackson Hole conference tomorrow, which looks to Global Investors like a Santa Claus convention with Yellen, Draghi, Carney and Kuroda sitting under the spruce trees with gigantic bags of FREE MONEY – and that's why traders are as giddy as kids before Christmas this week.

But, Virginia, is there really a Santa Claus, or are the bulls hopes and dreams about to be crushed by cruel economic realities they have, so far, been avoiding like the plague (or Ebola)?  Realities like China's horrific PMI this morning, that dropped from 51.7 to 50.3 (barely positive) and France's PMI, which is back in heavy contraction at 46.5 this morning.  Retail Sales…
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Helicopter Ben Bernanke Says Everything Is Going To Be Okay

Helicopter Ben Bernanke Says Everything Is Going To Be Okay

Courtesy of Michael Snyder at Economic Collapse 

Don’t worry everybody. Federal Reserve Chairman "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke says that the U.S. economy is going to be just fine, and that if it does slip up somehow the Federal Reserve is ready to rush in to the rescue. That was essentially Bernanke’s message to an annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. Bernanke insisted that even though the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates to historic lows it still has plenty of tools that could be used to stimulate the U.S. economy if necessary.

Well, considering Bernanke’s track record, the "don’t worry, be happy" mantra is just not going to cut it this time. After all, if Bernanke and his team were such intellectual powerhouses the "surprise" financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 would not have caught them with their pants down. The truth is that just before the "greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression" Bernanke was telling everyone that the economy was just fine. So are we going to let him fool us again?

But Bernanke insists that this time is different.  This time the Federal Reserve really has got a handle on things.  During his remarks at Jackson Hole, Bernanke said that the Fed will adopt "unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly."

Unconventional measures?

Could that be a thinly veiled way of saying that Helicopter Ben and his pals will do as much "quantitative easing" as they feel is necessary to keep the economy moving forward?…
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Zero Hedge

No Need For Yield Curve Inversion (There Is Already Much Worse Indicated)

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Though I highly doubt he will admit it, he’s just not the type, even Ben Bernanke knows on some level that bond market is decidedly against him, or at least his legacy. Economists have a funny way of looking at bonds, decomposing interest rates into Fisher...



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ValueWalk

Phillips 66 (PSX): Warren Buffett's New Favorite Dividend Growth Stock

By Simply Safe Dividends. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Phillips 66 (PSX): Warren Buffett’s New Favorite Dividend Growth Stock

Warren Buffett is history’s greatest investor, and so when his company, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), takes a major stake in a company the world takes notice.

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Investors can read analysis of all of Warren Buffett’s dividend-paying stocks ...



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Phil's Favorites

What Lies Beneath

 

What Lies Beneath

By GEORGE MONBIOT

[Originally published at The Guardian and cross-posted at George Monboit's website.]

Courtesy of George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 28th Sepetmeber 2016

It’s a simple choice: stop all fossil fuel prospecting, or break the Paris agreement on climate change.

Do they understand what they have signed? Plainly they do not. Governments like ours, now ratifying the Paris agreement on climate change, haven’t the faintest idea wha...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

EU Banks Eye $5 Billion Capital Respite on SEC Clearing Vote (Bloomberg)

A decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may bring European Union banks a step closer to avoiding billions of dollars of capital charges on their trades in derivatives and other securities.

WTO cuts 2016 world trade growth forecast to 1.7 percent, cites wake-up call (Reuters)

The World Trade Organization cut its forecast for global trade growth this year by more ...



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Mapping The Market

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

By Jean-Luc

Good riddance – cleaned up a lot of frauds there:

The Industry That Was Crushed By The Obama Administration

In early 2009, the seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion. Today, they’ve been all but wiped out.

When Barack Obama took office, America’s seven largest publicly traded college operators were worth a combined $51 billion, with more than 815,000 students enrolled at campuses spread across the country. The schools were flooded with with people seeking shelter from the recession, returning to school to pick up new skills.

Almost eight years later, the industry has been decimated. The seven largest listed operators are worth just over $6 billion, and the most valuable co...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Japanese YEN testing triple breakout level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Japanese Yen over the past 20-years.

For the majority of the time, the YEN has remained inside of rising channel (A). Now a big test is in play, after breaking support.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The Yen remained inside rising channel (A) from the mid 1990’s until 2014, where it broke below rising support. The rally that has taken place since the lows ...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.



Date Found: Saturday, 26 March 2016, 02:36:15 PM

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Comment: ZH: Its a BULLARD market, the FED jaw boning is keeping the market up!



Date Found: Sunday, 27 March 2016, 02:31:30 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing.
Comment: RTT: World trade near 2008/09 lows. SP500 near all time highs. PLACE YOUR BETS! Roll up! Roll up!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 March 2016, 02:42:11 PM

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

...



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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

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