Posts Tagged ‘L-shaped recovery’

When will the Fed start hiking?

When will the Fed start hiking?

Courtesy of Mish

Calculated Risk has an interesting chart and discussion on the unemployment rate and Fed rate hikes.

Unless inflation picks up significantly (unlikely in the near term with so much slack in the system), it is unlikely that the Fed will increase the Fed’s Fund rate until sometime after the unemployment rate peaks.

Following the peak unemployment rate in 2003 of 6.3%, the Fed waited a year to raise rates. The unemployment rate had fallen to 5.6% in June 2004 before the Fed raised rates.

Although there are other considerations, since the unemployment rate will probably continue to increase into 2010, I don’t expect the Fed to raise rates until late in 2010 at the earliest – and more likely sometime in 2011.

I think CR is a little optimistic on the recovery. However, I certainly agree with him on the inflation front. Please see Is Pent-Up Inflation From Fed Printing Waiting On Deck? for details.

Here is Calculated Risk’s chart. My annotations are in hot pink.

click on chart for sharper image

Look for unemployment to rise until late 2010 at a minimum. Mid-to-late 2011 is a distinct possibility as is an unemployment rate north of 11%. Of course real unemployment is already approaching 20%.

Assessing the Odds of a Double-Dip Recession

It is rare that I agree with Paul Krugman, even more so when I like his assessment more than Paul Kasriel’s. However, I agree with Krugman’s assessment that unemployment will not peak until 2011 and a double dip recession is a possibility.

Please consider this snip from Assessing the Odds of a Double Dip Recession for details.

Unemployment in the United States will peak only in early 2011 because of a slow and painful recovery from the global economic crisis, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said on Wednesday. He said the global economy seems to be stabilizing at a level that is "unacceptably poor" and added it is possible that the recession will be a double-dip one.

In this recession, assuming one believes it has ended now, unemployment is likely to keep rising for another 18 months. Yes I know that unemployment is supposed to be a "lagging indicator" but "lag" does not do justice to what happened in 2001 or what I think is likely

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Assessing the Odds of a Double Dip Recession

Assessing the Odds of a Double Dip Recession

recessionCourtesy of Mish

If you have a job and it is not in jeopardy, pull out the party hats and toot your horns. The OECD calls an end to the global recession.

The global downturn was effectively declared over yesterday, with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revealing that "clear signs of recovery are now visible" in all seven of the leading Western economies, as well as in each of the key "Bric" nations.

The OECD’s composite leading indicators suggest that activity is now improving in all of the world’s most significant 11 economies – the leading seven, consisting of the US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Japan, and the Bric nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China – and in almost every case at a faster pace than previously.

Each of the 11 economies saw an improvement in July, the OECD said, with only France improving at a slower rate than in June. The July figures are the most encouraging since the indices began ticking downwards during the first quarter of last year.

The OECD’s leading indicators are considered a key economic yardstick because they measure the sectors of countries’ economies that tend to react first to upswings and downturns. As such they provide early evidence of the way in which the overall economy is progressing.

Unemployment Likely To Rise For A Year

If you don’t have a job or your job is in jeopardy you may not feel like partying much. Unemployment is likely to rise for another year.

Moreover, there are strong reasons to expect Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade.

In the Incredible Shrinking Boomer Economy I noted a harsh reality quote of Bernanke:

"It takes GDP growth of about 2.5 percent to keep the jobless rate constant. But the Fed expects growth of only about 1 percent in the last six months of the year. So that’s not enough to bring down the unemployment rate."

Pray tell what happens if GDP can’t exceed 2.5% for a couple of years? What about a decade (or on and off for a decade)?

If you have come to the conclusion that we are going to have structurally high unemployment for a decade, you have come to the right conclusion. Ask yourself: Is that what the stock

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James Chanos and Kyle Bass Vanity Fair interview

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

James Chanos and Kyle Bass speak with Bethany McLean at Vanity Fair’s New Establishment Summit on the global economy and stock markets.

Also see

China’s $34 Trillion Experiment Is Blowing Up – Kyle Bass 

Watch this video on The Scene.

The post James Chanos and Ky...

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Zero Hedge

Clinton State Dept Spent 5.4 Million Taxpayer Dollars On 'Crystal Stemware', $630k On Facebook 'Likes'

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Cameron Cawthorne, originally posted at The Washington Free Beacon,

The Republican National Committee revealed Thursday in a 21-page memo that Hillary Clinton’s State Department spent millions of dollars on lavish goods and initiatives on the taxpayers’ dime.


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Phil's Favorites

FBI Reopens Clinton Probe: Too Little Too Late? Surprising Krugman Tweet

Courtesy of Mish.

It should be clear to even the casual observer that the FBI purposely failed to investigate the Hillary email server scam as well as improprieties the Clinton foundation.

Today the FBI reconsidered. So here we are, 11 days from the election, with an unprecedented FBI probe of the likely next president of the United States, who will undoubtedly be given a pardon by president Obama in his final finger to US citizens.

NBC reports FBI Says It Will Investigate New Hillary Clinton Emails.

The FBI is reviewing a new batch of Hillary Clinton emails, bureau director James Comey said in a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee on Fr...

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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World


Financial Markets and Economy

Dollar Near Seven-Month High as Stocks, Bonds Fluctuate on GDP (Bloomberg)

The dollar held near a seven-month high while stocks and bonds fluctuated after data showing a pickup in the world’s largest economy bolstered the case for higher interest rates this year. Oil fell.

Brexit Pains: The Pound Takes a Serious Pounding (Bloomberg)

The U.K. currency has become the most prominent victim of the Brexit debate, falling 18 percent against the dollar since the British voted in June to w...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Amazon; Potential bearish reversal pattern, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Without a doubt, Amazon (AMZN) remains in an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows) over the past decade plus. Last nights earnings does NOT change this trend!

Below updates the pattern on Amazon and highlights that this week, it is could be creating a pattern it has seldom created, over the past 10-years.


As mentioned in the chart, a few t...

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Chart School

Small Caps Head South, Large Caps Drift Lower

Courtesy of Declan.

After failing to build a swing low at September's lows, the Russell 2000 went the other The breakdown has moved out of the consolidation which has been in play since July, opening up for a retest of the June swing low at 1,086. Technicals are heavily oversold, so a reaction bounce, potentially from the open, would not be surprising.

The Nasdaq is felling the pinch. The upside break from the (then) bearish rising wedge had looked to catch shorts on the short, but this has since turned against bulls and ...

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Digital Currencies

Needham Raises Bitcoin Price Target To $848: Here's Why

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

With bitcoin breaking out of its recent trading range as Chinese buyers once again flock to the currency as the Yuan slides (as we predicted over a year ago they would), even Wall Street analysts are starting to pay attention, and in a recent report by Needham's Spencer Bogart, the analyst has raised his price...

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Members' Corner

Heil The Candidate?

Courtesy of Nattering Naybob.

Remember the 2016 Presidential Election is only thirteen days away. During this election campaign, both 2016 election candidates and the incumbent President, have been amongst other things, vilified as Hitler-esque.

Above Heil Hitlary! courtesy of LULZY T-Shirts

Above Heil Trump! image...

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Swing trading portfolio - week of October 24th,2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.


This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...

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Mapping The Market

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

Via Jean-Luc

Good article on investing success:

The Most Overlooked Trait of Investing Success

By Morgan Housel

There is a reason no Berkshire Hathaway investor chides Buffett when the company has a bad quarter. It’s because Buffett has so thoroughly convinced his investors that it’s pointless to try to navigate around 90-day intervals. He’s done that by writing incredibly lucid letters to investors for the last 50 years, communicating in easy-to-understand language at annual meetings, and speaking on TV in ways that someone with no investing experience can grasp.

Yes, Buffett runs an amazing investment company. But he also runs an amazing investor company. One of the most underappreciated part of his s...

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Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.

To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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