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Posts Tagged ‘leak’

BP and the Government Are Underplaying the Difficulty of Stopping the Oil Leak

BP and the Government Are Underplaying the Difficulty of Stopping the Oil Leak

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog

While BP and the government say that permanently capping the oil well is no problem, they act like they have no idea what they’re doing.

Indeed, Admiral Thad Allen is now saying "We’re concerned about the vital signs of this well":

YouTube Video

He’s also saying that completion of relief well will be delayed until mid-September, at the earliest, and that the government is looking for problematic “material” in the well:

YouTube Video

What’s really going on?

Well, initially, if the well had structural integrity, there wouldn’t be concern about the "vital signs" of the well, there wouldn’t have been delay after delay in completing the relief wells, there wouldn’t be never-ending rounds of new tests, there wouldn’t have been an attempt to seal it (or perhaps more accurately, patch it) from the top using cement, there wouldn’t be an attempt to remove "material" from the well.

Indeed, what does "removing material" even mean? Does that mean removing crumpled casing or drill pipe, or does it mean clearing out caved-in portions of the well and trying to rebuild those portions from scratch?

Moreover, one of the world’s top experts in oil drilling disasters – Dr. Robert Bea – told me yesterday that the geology underneath the seafloor at the leak site is fractured, and includes very loose salt formations. This geology may make it very hard to kill the well, even using relief wells, and he says that we may never be able to kill it. He also said that there are uncorroborated reports of additional leaks other than the main well, but that BP isn’t sharing enough information to be able to assess whether or not that there are additional leaks.  (Dr. Bea told me that BP is using a "cloak of silence", and is refusing to even show the government videos of what the seafloor looked like before the April explosion).

So instead of simply trying to cap an existing well, it may be more accurate to think of this as trying to build a new well – or at least trying to duck tape the old one – so that it has enough integrity to be permanently stopped.

Update: Admiral Thad Allen just confirmed in a…
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Afghanistan is a “Lost Cause”; Leaked Documents Show Futility of Afghanistan War

Afghanistan is a "Lost Cause"; Leaked Documents Show Futility of Afghanistan War

KABUL, AFGHANISTAN - JULY 26: Lights adorn buildings as people celebrate the birthday of the 12th Imam, Muhammad al Mahdi on July 26, 2010 in Kabul, Afghanistan. Born on July 29, 869, the Imam is an anointed leader or ruler said to have been the twelfth generation descendant of the prophet Muhammad. It is believed that the Imam will return to earth some day to bring peace. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Courtesy of Mish 

The questions on my mind are: How many trillions of dollars do we have to spend, how many lives need to be wasted, and how much longer are we going to be involved in the boondoggle known as Afghanistan?

Such questions were on my mind even before Leaked Documents Underscore Lawmakers’ Concerns on Afghan War

President Barack Obama faces renewed concern about his Afghanistan war strategy after leaked military documents suggested Pakistan’s main intelligence agency secretly aided the Taliban and others the U.S is trying to defeat.

Disclosure of the documents, as Congress this week considers funding for the U.S. troop buildup in Afghanistan, underscored questions about the war while many lawmakers prepare to go home to campaign in August.

Some of the 92,000 classified reports, disclosed July 25 by the website Wikileaks, say that members of Pakistan’s Inter- Services Intelligence Directorate helped the Taliban and other Islamic rebels. The documents, covering 2004 through 2009, were reported by the New York Times, the London-based Guardian and the German magazine Der Spiegel, which said Wikileaks provided them the reports three weeks ago.

The leaked documents “raise serious questions about the reality of America’s policy toward Pakistan and Afghanistan,” said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat. “Those policies are at a critical stage,” and the documents “make the calibrations needed to get the policy right more urgent.”

‘Not Pretty’

“I’ve been to a number of briefings and I’ve always been provided a more upbeat picture than the one” depicted by the documents, said Representative James McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat who opposes Obama’s Afghan policy. “The picture that is painted here is not pretty.”

Obama announced in December plans to send another 30,000 combat troops to Afghanistan, and Congress is under pressure to pass legislation paying for the buildup before taking its monthlong summer recess. Obama has said he will start to draw down U.S. forces in July 2011 and give more security responsibility to the Afghans, depending on conditions.

Polls show support for the war waning. Almost 6 in 10 respondents in a Bloomberg National Poll conducted July 9-12 said Afghanistan is a lost cause.

Also, 60 percent of Americans surveyed thought the withdrawal of forces should start in July 2011 even if the situation in


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Prominent Oil Industry Insider: “There’s Another Leak, Much Bigger, 5 to 6 Miles Away”

Prominent Oil Industry Insider: "There’s Another Leak, Much Bigger, 5 to 6 Miles Away"

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog

Matt Simmons was an energy adviser to George W. Bush, is an adviser to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, and is a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations. Simmon is chairman and CEO of Simmons & Company International, an investment bank catering to oil companies.

Simmons told Dylan Ratigan that "there’s another leak, much bigger, 5 to 6 miles away" from the leaking riser and blowout preventer shown on the underwater cameras:

I have no idea whether or not Simmons is right. The government should immediately either debunk or admit his claim.

If accurate, the bigger leak could have been caused by the destruction of the well casing when the oil rig exploded. That is Simmons’ theory.

Or it could be caused by a natural oil seep, although the odds of a seep of that size occurring right around the time of the Deep Horizon disaster is nearly zero.

There is another possibility.

It is well-known that there were previous accidents at the Deepwater Horizon rig. For example, as AP notes:

From 2000 to 2010, the Coast Guard issued six enforcement warnings and handed down one civil penalty and a notice of violation to Deepwater Horizon, agency records show.

On 18 different occasions during that period the Coast Guard cited the vessel for an "acknowledged pollution source."

It is therefore possible that there has been another ongoing leak which BP has tried to cover up.


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Zero Hedge

OBAMAS MaSSiVe FiGHT WiTH WaLL STReeT...

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by williambanzai7.

.

 

Our banks have admitted to crimes

And sentenced to pay a few dimes

While profits they see

Front-running QE

We're living in interesting times

The Limerick King

...

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Phil's Favorites

Another US Foreign Policy Success: Isis Controls Half of Syria after Palmyra Seizure

Courtesy of Mish.

Congratulations are in order for team Bush and team Obama for another stunning US foreign policy success: Isis Controls Half of Syria after Palmyra Seizure. Fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) have seized the Syrian city of Palmyra, home to a Unesco world heritage site, putting nearly half of Syrian territory in the jihadi group’s hands and sparking fears that treasured antiquities may be destroyed.

Isis announced it had “complete control” of the city on Thursday, and state television said President Bashar al-Assad’s forces had withdrawn from the city, which is known to most Syrians by its Arabic name Tadmur.

Ancient Palmyra is known to the world for its iconic avenue ...



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Chart School

STTG Market Recap May 21, 2015

Courtesy of Blain.

Another quiet session in a week full of them.  The S&P 500 gained 0.23% and the NASDAQ 0.38% as morning weakness was bought.  This is a good sign again, but these gains are of a grinding nature.  Existing home sales for April fell 3.3%, missing an expected 1% gain to 5.24 million units. Earlier in the week, reports showed home builder sentiment fell in May, but housing starts for April came in much better than expected.

Perhaps we have a nice little bull flag forming on the S&P 500 here after a breakout of a very long range.

...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Red Hot Shanghai pushed above another resistance level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

When it comes to Red Hot stock markets the Shanghai index fits the bill. Below looks at the Year-To-Date performance of the Shanghai, DAX and S&P 500 indices.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

As you can see the S&P 500 is lagging big time this year and even though the DAX is having a great year, the Shanghai is up twice as much.

What would stop this Shanghai? Could it be a key Fibonacci level? The chart below looks at the Fibonacci 61% level, based upon its 2007 weekly highs and the financial crisis lows in 2008.

...



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Insider Scoop

Salesforce Fair Value Now $76/Share

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM 10 Must Watch Stocks for Today Williams-Sonoma, Salesforce.com, Deckers Outdoor Lead Wednesday's After-Hours Movers Wall Street Breakfast: PMI Data Weighs On Global Markets (Seeking Alpha)

In a report published Thursday, Brean Capital analysts maintained a Hold rating on salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE: ...



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Pharmboy

Big Pharma's Business Model is Changing

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Understanding the new normal of a business model is key to the success of any company.  The managment of companies need to adapt to the changing demand, but first they must recognize what changes are taking place.  Big Pharma's business model is changing rapidly, and much like the airline industry, there will be but a handful of pharma companies left at the end of this path.

Most Big Pharma companies have traditionally done everything from research and development (R&D) through to commercialisation themselves. Research was proprietary, and diseases were cherry picked on the back of academic research that was done using NIH grants.  This was in the heyday of research, where multiple companies had drugs for the same target (Mevocor, Zocor, Crestor, Lipitor), and could reap the rewards on multiple scales.  However, in the c...



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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bullish technical picture appears to trump cautious fundamentals

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

By Scott Martindale

Stocks closed last week on a strong note, with the S&P 500 notching a new high, despite lackluster economic data and growth. I have been suggesting in previous articles that stocks appeared to be coiling for a significant move but that the ingredients were not yet in place for either a major breakout or a corrective selloff. However, bulls appear to be losing patience awaiting their next definitive catalyst, and the higher-likelihood upside move may now be underway. Yet despite the bullish technical picture, this week’s fundamentals-based Outlook rankings look even more defensive.

In this weekly update, I give ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 18th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

 

Nasdaq's bitcoin plan will provide a real test of bitcoin hype

By 

Excerpt:

Bitcoin, the virtual digital currency, has been called the future of banking, a dangerous fad, and almost everything in between, but we're finally about to get some solid data to help settle the debate.

On Monday, the Nasdaq (NDAQ) stock exchange said it would ...



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Market Shadows

Kimble Charts: US Dollar

Which way from here?

Chris Kimble likes the idea of shorting the US dollar if it bounces higher. Phil's likes the dollar better long here. These views are not inconsistent, actually, the dollar could bounce and drop again. We'll be watching. 

 

Phil writes:  If the Fed begins to tighten OR if Greece defaults OR if China begins to fall apart OR if Japan begins to unwind, then the Dollar could move 10% higher.  Without any of those things happening – you still have the Fed pursuing a relatively stronger currency policy than the rest of the G8.  So, if anything, I think the pressure should be up, not down.  

 

UNLESS that 95 line does ultimately fail (as opposed to this being bullish consolidation at the prior breakout point), then I'd prefer to sell the UUP Jan $25 puts for $0.85 and buy the Sept $24 call...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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