Posts Tagged ‘Mark Hanson’

MORE ON THE HOUSING DATA….

MORE ON THE HOUSING DATA….

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Mark Hanson delves even deeper into the housing data.  It’s very hard to make an argument that sheds his superb analysis in anything other than a bearish light:

Year-to-date 2009 sales are 20k FEWER than 2008, one of the worst years on record. And we spent hundreds of billions to achieve these results.

MH1

From 30k feet, this is your housing recovery.  What would have sales been without spending hundreds of billions on pulling out and forward demand from first time homeowners and investors?

MH2

Remember, organic move-up/across/down buyers have always led the market. First timers and investors have always been the weakest segments and cannot carry the market for long. This highlights the most important factor plaguing the housing market — epidemic negative equity prohibiting the typical homeowner from selling and re-buying. Epidemic negative equity is only fixed by ‘years’.

MH3

The tax credit extended the 2009 purch season a month (green) but as you can see from the MoM drop, seasonality reigns supreme. When this last push to get in before tax credit sunset, it sets the market up or a cash-for-clunkers effect over the near-term. If the credit is extended, it simply takes the pressure off and allows buyers to shop vs panic buy. Either way, the fundamentally weak housing market will show itself over the near term.

MH4

Lastly, in today’s release Lawrence Yun commented on the falling prices saying that…

“The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5 percent lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.”

But distressed sales were the lowest of the year at 29% from 31% last month due to HAMP and the lack of foreclosure inventory. Therefore, the median is actually being skewed higher as more orginic and short sales went off towards the end of the season.

“Early information from a large annual consumer study to be released November 13, the 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45 percent of home sales during the past year. A separate practitioner survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29 percent of transactions in September.“

Some of the best real estate analysis around.  Thanks Mark!

Source: www.mhanson.com

 


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Existing Homes Headline Covers Up The Weak Details

Existing Homes Headline Covers Up The Weak Details


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Zero Hedge

All The Latest Greek Headlines

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Today's "final" Eurogroup meeting is yet another "last" chance for Greece to stay in the Euro according to Greek headlines. The meeeting begins in minutes, at 12:30pm CET/7:30am Eastern so expect the usual torrent of "Greek deal" headlines which send the S&P surging followed by prompt denials which the S&P algo soundly ignore. By now the game is quite familiar to everyone.

Here are some of the soundbites as the Euro finmins are unloaded:

  • Schaeuble Says He’s Waiting ‘With Excitement’ For Greece’s Offer, asked if Greece can keep Euro says, must ask Greek government.
  • Germany's Gabriel says el...


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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

The amount of money Americans say they spend in a day has gone basically nowhere in the last two years (Business Insider)

Gallup just released the results of a poll asking Americans how much money they spent in a day on discretionary items, excluding major home purchases and regular bills. Respondents are asked how much they spent "yesterday," or the day before they were contacted by the pollster.

Chinese Stocks Open Down Ha...



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Chart School

RTT browsing latest..

Courtesy of Read the Ticker.

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.Date Found: Friday, 05 June 2015, 03:53:56 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: FAIR QUESTION: is the Fed simply rising rates just so it badly crashes the economy and has the cover to launch QE4, the same way Russian sanctions crippled Germany's economy and led to the ECB's very first episode of bond monetization?

Date Found: Friday, 05 June 2015, 08:54:03 PM

Click for popup. Clear your browser cache if image is not showing. Comment: Zerohedge : This is the simplest way to describe Keynesianism: A slow steady rise up, with quick steps down towards where you came from.

Date Found: Saturday, 06 June 2015, 02:12:32 AM...

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Sabrient

Sector Detector: Bulls prepare for a new buying opportunity, courtesy of Greece

Reminder: Sabrient is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Courtesy of Sabrient Systems and Gradient Analytics

Of course, all eyes have been on Greece in an ongoing saga that, although critical to the Greeks, is mostly just an annoying distraction for global investors -- partly because it has been going on for so many years, with the proverbial can of inevitability continually being kicked down the road, and partly because there can be no winners in this intractable situation. Predictably, the electorate chose to follow the advice of the communists that they elected and reject the rigid bailout offer, calling the bluff of the IMF, ECB, and Eurozone and betting they will do whatever it takes to avoid losing one of its members. These are uncharted waters, and with the resultant s...



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Phil's Favorites

There is Only One Way Out For Greece

Courtesy of Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics

Brussels has been dead wrong. The stupid idea that the euro will bring stability and peace, as it was sold from the outset, has migrated to European domination as if this were “Game of Thrones.” Those in power have misread history, almost at every possible level. The assumption that the D-marks’ strength was a good thing that would transfer to the euro has failed because they failed to comprehend the backdrop to the D-mark.

Germany moved opposite of the USA toward extreme austerity and conservative economics because of its experience with hyperinflation. The USA moved toward stimulation because of the austerity policies that created the Great Depression, which led to a sh...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Leading indicator breakdowns, more important than Greece?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Has Greece been a good economic indicator over the past few years? Most would say NOT!

Could Crude & Copper be sending a more important global message than what happens in Greece?

A year ago a long-term pennant pattern in play with Crude Oil. Once it started heading south a year ago, it fell hard. Crude Oil’s rally took it 23% retracement level and its 200MA line of late at (1) below. See what is happening now!

CLICK ON CHART ENLARGE

Crude is breaking below this multi-week pennant pattern after failing to climb above Fibonacci resistance and its 200ma...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 6th, 2015

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Surges After Initial Forecasts Show "No" Vote Ahead

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

If the early bitcoin markets are an indication of what will happen once New Zealand opens for illiquid FX trade, it will be a risk off kinda day.

And that doesn't even take into account the pandemonium that will be unleashed in China in a few hours after the PBOC just went all-in to halt the crashing stock market. What if it fails to get a green close before tomorrow's US open?

Source: ...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: David is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Pharmboy

Baxter's Spinoff

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Baxter Int. (BAX) is splitting off its BioSciences division into a new company called Baxalta. Shares of Baxalta will be given as a tax-free dividend, in the ratio of one to one, to BAX holders on record on June 17, 2015. That means, if you want to receive the Baxalta dividend, you need to buy the stock this week (on or before June 12).

The Baxalta Spinoff

By Ilene with Trevor of Lowenthal Capital Partners and Paul Price

In its recent filing with the SEC, Baxter provides:

“This information statement is being ...



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Mapping The Market

An update on oil proxies

Courtesy of Jean-Luc Saillard

Back in December, I wrote a post on my blog where I compared the performances of various ETFs related to the oil industry. I was looking for the best possible proxy to match the moves of oil prices if you didn't want to play with futures. At the time, I concluded that for medium term trades, USO and the leveraged ETFs UCO and SCO were the most promising. Longer term, broader ETFs like OIH and XLE might make better investment if oil prices do recover to more profitable prices since ETF linked to futures like USO, UCO and SCO do suffer from decay. It also seemed that DIG and DUG could be promising if OIH could recover as it should with the price of oil, but that they don't make a good proxy for the price of oil itself. 

Since...



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Promotions

Watch the Phil Davis Special on Money Talk on BNN TV!

Kim Parlee interviews Phil on Money Talk. Be sure to watch the replays if you missed the show live on Wednesday night (it was recorded on Monday). As usual, Phil provides an excellent program packed with macro analysis, important lessons and trading ideas. ~ Ilene

 

The replay is now available on BNN's website. For the three part series, click on the links below. 

Part 1 is here (discussing the macro outlook for the markets) Part 2 is here. (discussing our main trading strategies) Part 3 is here. (reviewing our pick of th...

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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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