Posts Tagged ‘Mark Zandi’

Mainstream Economists: “Mission Accomplished”

Mainstream Economists: "Mission Accomplished"

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog 

Numerous current stories show how disconnected mainstream policy-makers are from reality.

For example, Ryan Grim points out that there is an "unbelievable disconnect" between the American people (who are people are against the Afghanistan war) and Congress and the political elite (gung-ho to escalate this never-ending war): 

Even after the Wikileaks revelations, even though there is no logical reason to be in Afghanistan, even though the war won’t help the economy, and even though most Americans want us to get out, Congress keeps increasing funding for the endless war.

And Alan Blinder (economist, banking consultant and former Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and chief Moody’s economist Mark Zandi wrote a paper yesterday called How We Ended the Great Recession:

How We Ended the Great Recession

A source on Capitol Hill sent this to me, telling me that the paper is making the rounds on the Hill.

In the paper, Blinder and Zandi congratulate the Bush and Obama administrations for saving us from the Great Depression 2.0:

Eighteen months ago, the global financial system was on the brink of collapse and the U.S. was suffering its worst economic downturn since the 1930s. The Great Recession gave way to recovery as quickly as it did largely because of the unprecedented responses by monetary and fiscal policymakers.

In other words: "Mission Accomplished".

In the real world, however, the economy is on the second leg down of the crash, and the government’s policies have not addressed the real problems. See this and this (no wonder consumer confidence is plunging but Wall Street is partying like it’s 1999).

Indeed, while Blinder and Zandi and Congress are patting themselves on the back for a job well done, the facts simply do not bear out their claims. As just one example, they claim that the TARP bank bailouts helped the economy. But as I pointed out in March 2009, the bailout money didn’t actually…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,




ZANDI: DON’T BELIEVE THE HOUSING DATA

ZANDI: DON’T BELIEVE THE HOUSING DATA

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist 

Mark Zandi of Moody’s says the recent strength in housing data is almost entirely due to seasonal factors and government intervention.  Zandi says housing data is likely to dip again after the April data is released:

Source: Bloomberg TV


Tags: , , ,




 
 
 

Phil's Favorites

Crisis Actors and a Reichstag Fire

 

Crisis Actors and a Reichstag Fire

Courtesy of John Mauldin

This week your Outside the Box is from my friend Ben Hunt, who writes his letter under the title Epsilon Theory. This edition is a little darker than usual, and certainly more of a think piece. A central argument that Ben makes in Epsilon Theory is that it is Narrativethat is the driver of politics, economics, and social interaction generally. The Narrative is what we all (mostly) believe and act upon. Investors generally believe that quantitative easing is going to result in a rising stock market, so they act as if another round of QE and continued low or negative rates are good for the equity markets; and thus the game...



more from Ilene

Zero Hedge

Damn It Feels Good To Be A Gangsta; Until You Get Sentenced To 21 Months In Federal Prison

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Many of us, at one point or another, have wondered what it would be like to quit a job in a blaze of glory...taking down computer networks and leaving a trail of mayhem in our paths on the way out the door. No, just us?   

Well, turns out that if you ever do go down that path it's probably best not to text your co-worker shortly thereafter admitting to the crime. 

Unfortunately, that's exactly what former Citibank employee Lennon Ray Brown did ...



more from Tyler

Chart School

S&P 500 Snapshot: Weak GDP? No Worries!

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

The potential mover and shaker this morning was the surprisingly weak Advance Estimate of GDP for Q2, not to mention the downward revisions to the two previous quarters. But no worries for the market! The S&P 500 hits its -0.30% intraday low about 30 minutes into the trade and then bounced to its 0.32% intraday high during the lunch hour -- a record intraday high for that matter. A bit of zigzagging in the afternoon cut the closing gain in half to 0.16%, just a tad shy of a record close.

The bond market took a somewhat different view. The yield on the 10-year dropped six basis points to close at 1.46%. That's nine BPs off its all-time closing low and 11 BPs below its close on July 22, when the S&P 500 set its latest record close.

He...



more from Chart School

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

U.S. economy grows 1.2 percent in second quarter as inventories fall (Bloomberg)

The U.S. economy grew far less than expected in the second quarter as inventories fell for the first time since 2011, but a surge in consumer spending pointed to underlying strength.

Yellen Chases Elusive U.S. Wage Gains With Georgia On Her Mind (Bloomberg)

When Janet Yellen decides she’s ready to raise interest rates again, her impetus may be her go-to source on wage trends: the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

...



more from Paul

ValueWalk

NetSuite Inc Stock Soars On Oracle Corporation Bid

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

NetSuite Inc (NYSE:N) is soaring this morning as Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL) has made a bid to buy the company for $9.3 billion. This deal has been rumored for some time but obviously few expected such a large premium or did not think the bid was certaintly coming as the stock is up about 18 percent at the time of this writing which is a lot for a tech giant. Here is what the sell side is saying.

NetSuite – analysts react

Nomura

Should the transaction take place, Oracle would pay about 9x NTM EV / revenue (based on consensus estimates for NetSuite), above the average multiple paid in our precedent SaaS Software acquisitions analysis of 6.8x . Additionally, Oracl...



more from ValueWalk

Mapping The Market

Illusion of Choice

From Jean-Luc:

Looks like we are down to about 10 companies for our consumer goods:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/illusion-of-choice-consumer-brands/

Just like banks, airlines and cable companies! 

The Illusion of Choice in Consumer Brands

Explore the full-size version of the above graphic in all its glory.

If today’s infographic looks familiar, that’s because it originates from a well-circulated report that Oxfam International puts together to show consolidation i...



more from M.T.M.

Digital Currencies

Judge Rules Bitcoin Isn't Money Because It "Can't be Hidden Under A Mattress"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Everett Numbers via TheAntiMedia.org

In a landmark decision, a Florida judge dismissed charges of money laundering against a Bitcoin seller on Monday following expert testimony showing state law did not apply to the cryptocurrency.

Michell Espinoza was charged with three felony charges related to money laundering i...



more from Bitcoin

Kimble Charting Solutions

Junk Bonds at important inflection point, should impact stocks!

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Junk bonds have been quality at sending Risk On and Risk Off message to the broad stock market. Below looks at Junk Bond ETF JNK over the past decade.

JNK finds itself at an important price point below and what it does in the upcoming couple of weeks could become a big influence on the Risk On/Risk Off trade.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

...

more from Kimble C.S.

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David

Biotech

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members.

Here's an interesting article from Investor's Business Daily arguing that biotech stocks are beginning to recover from their recent declines, notwithstanding current weakness.

This Is Why Biotech Stocks May Explode Again

By 

Excerpt:

After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.

...



more from Biotech

Promotions

PSW is more than just stock talk!

 

We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

PhilStockWorld.com features the most important and most interesting news items from around the web, all day, every day!

News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



more from Promotions

Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>