Posts Tagged ‘massive deficits’

Insatiable Demand For US Debt, or Something Else?

Courtesy of Chris Martenson

Chris Martenson

Recently the Fed reiterated that their $300 billion program of buying long-dated Treasury Bonds would end on schedule, meaning as soon as it hit $300 billion.  Well, that’s been achieved so according to recent Fed statements, the program is over.

This is a critical development because the ability of the US government to continue to fund its massive deficits (at favorable rates) requires that each Treasury Auction be "well bid."  The Fed has been a major participant, and so we might reasonably wonder who will fill the Fed’s shoes.

This is critical because the US government continues to float weekly auctions of Treasuries in quantities that just a few short years ago would have been unthinkable.

Exhibit A:  Next week’s schedule:

Monday (Oct 5), 10 year TIPS: $7 billion

Tuesday (Oct 6), 3-Year notes: $39 billion

Wednesday (Oct 7), 10-Year notes: $20 billion

Thursday (Oct 8), 30-Year Bonds: $12 billion

That’s $78 billion dollars over the course of just four days.

While not record-breaking compared to amounts offered (and snapped up) in early 2009, for perspective $78 billion is equivalent to the entire yearly economic output of Bangladesh, a nation of some 160 million souls. Let’s be honest, $78 billion is a lot of money, it really is, although I will understand these days you’ve become numb to such staggeringly large numbers.  I know I have.

If we go to the Federal Reserve website we can see that over the course of 28 weeks the Federal Reserve has already accumulated slightly more than $300 billion in its Long-Term Treasury Purchase Program:

(Source)

So according to its recent statements the Fed is all done buying long-dated Treasuries. I say ‘apparently’ because the Federal Reserve website just announced its next raft of Long-Dated Treasury Purchases.

(Source

I am still baffled as to why the Fed is both showing that it has bought more than $300 billion in Treasuries and has scheduled more purchases.  I assume there’s some sort of clever distinction that excludes some purchases (TIPS perhaps?) from the "official total" of the Long-Term Treasury Purchase Program. 

It’s either that or the Fed (as predicted here long ago) is going to continue buying Treasuries and other US paper assets in whatever amounts


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Zero Hedge

Video: Inside America's Deadly Opioid Crisis

 

Video: Inside America's Deadly Opioid Crisis

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Opioids kill more people than they cure. Every day in the United States, some 140 people die from taking opioids - addictive opiate-based drugs. They’ve become the leading cause of death among the under-50s, ahead of road accidents and firearms. France24's US correspondents, Valérie Defert, Baptiste Fenwick, Hayde Fitzpatrick and Romain Jany, take a look at the deadly opioid crisis.

Opioids are neither viruses nor bacteria, but painkillers. In ...



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ValueWalk

"Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets"

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

About the Subject
Systemic risk is the risk that developments in the financial system will disrupt financial stability and the economy. While systemic risk has been a central concern since the Credit Crisis of 2007–2009, the history of finance shows that financial crises occur frequently and threats to financial stability are constant, requiring careful monitoring and management of systemic risk. In Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets, Aron Gottesman and Michael Leibrock discuss the core principles and dynamics of systemic risk, as well as a real-world approach to managing it.

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Phil's Favorites

'Dreamers' could give US economy - and even American workers - a boost

 

'Dreamers' could give US economy – and even American workers – a boost

Courtesy of Amy HsinCity University of New York

Demonstrators chant slogans during an immigration rally in support of DACA. AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

Earlier this month, hopes were high that a bipartisan deal could be reached to resolve the fate of the “Dreamers,” the millions of undocumented youth who were brought to the U.S. as children.

Those hopes ...



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Insider Scoop

Wall Street Previews Netflix's Q4 Earnings: Rising Subscriber Numbers Drive Bullish Projections

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related NFLX Needham's Laura Martin: Amazon Prime Price Increase Won't Affect Netflix, Roku Upcoming Netflix Earnings:...

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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

 

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson, Contrarian Edge

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and energy into businesses that have transformed the world – Amazon, eBay, Cisco, PayPal … the list is very long (though in fairness the list of non-survivors is even longer – but they are not here to remind us of their nonexistence).

R...



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Chart School

Short Covering Driving Gains in Semiconductors and Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Declan.

The Nasdaq 100 breakout cleared channel resistance, the fifth significant breakout in four months. All technicals are posting new near-term highs which also meant the short generated on the tag of the rising channel is negated.


The Semiconductor Index also enjoyed a substantial breakout as short covering drove traders out of their positions. Technicals see an improvement with a relative gain against the Nasdaq 100.

...

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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

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To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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