Posts Tagged ‘National Bureau of Economic Research’

John Rambo and the NBER Agree – Nothing is Over

John Rambo and the NBER Agree – Nothing is Over

Courtesy of Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker 

In case you’ve lost track (as I have), the the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has never actually officially called the end of the Great Recession that they say began in December of 2007.  Not that the NBER is really all that swift at calling starts and stops.

Anyway, CNN Money reminds us that according to the official recordkeeper (and to quote John Rambo):

"Nothing is over! Nothing! You just don’t turn it off!"

We’ll let that marinate for a second, here’s the story:

The NBER usually takes its time to declare the beginnings and endings of a recession. It’s not in the job of acting on economic forecasts, but rather recording economic events throughout history based on actual indicators.

It wasn’t until December 2008 that the NBER formally declared that the latest recession started in December 2007. And it took almost two years before the organization stated that the 2001 recession was over.

Who knows when the NBER will declare the end of this latest recession. Whatever date it falls on, last summer certainly didn’t feel like the end of the recession even while many economists argue that it was. And in the coming year, it might feel even less like it.

So the NBER doesn’t ever actually record double dips, they (in hindsight) refer to those types of occurrences as all one suckfest.  Something to keep in mind.

Source:

Did The Recession Actually End?  (CNNMoney) 


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Mortgage Applications Plummet

Mortgage Applications Plummet

Courtesy of John Lounsbury writing at Credit Writedowns 

David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Scheff, has the following graph showing the dramatic drop in mortgage applications for home purchases in the most recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Upside-Down-V 

It is interesting to note that Rosenberg does not show an end date for the recession on his graphs.  Most optimists show an end date in the middle of 2009.  Most realists show an end late third quarter or early fourth quarter.  Rosenberg is clearly a pessimist about the economy.

The official end date for the recession will be determined by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research).  The determination often comes many months after the official date defined.  In other words, the end of the recession will be post-dated.  No date has been designated as yet. 

 


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Interview with Rick Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute

Interview with Rick Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute

 

By Ilene

Introduction: Richard Davis is President of the Consumer Metrics Institute (CMI). At the Institute, Rick measures real-time consumer transactions as an objective indicator of consumer demand and the associated health of the US economy. In this interview, we explore the history behind the government-published numbers and the reasons prompting Rick to devise better ways to measure the state of the economy.

History

Ilene: Rick, what got you interested in measuring economic numbers?

Rick: I first became frustrated with the current state of economic data after learning about the history of the collection process and the government’s continued reliance on 70 year old concepts. The government began collecting economic data during Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s (FDR) second term, around 1937. There was concern that the recovery from the 1937-1938 recession (i.e., a recession nested within the Great Depression) was stalling. The economy had been improving significantly from early 1933 through 1936 before the wheels came off the recovery in mid-1937.  FDR’s administration realized it did not have adequate data to monitor the economy and the administration asked the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to look into this problem. Wesley Clair Mitchell set out to find data that would help FDR’s administration address its concerns about the U.S. economy.

Wesley Clair Mitchell was a once-in-a-generation economic genius when it came to data collection. He collected over 500 interesting data sets measuring items such as sales, employment, railcar loadings--items that would allow him to constantly monitor the health of the economy. Most of these things are still measured, and the numbers have evolved into the core reports put out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

What frustrated me was that the data sets measured by Dr. Mitchell were developed in the 1930s and designed to capture those things that were important to the 1930s economy. They are not geared for today’s economy. Things that mattered in the mid-20th century simply cannot completely describe what is happening in the 2010 economy.

For instance, to find out what was happening in the music industry in 1950, someone could have gone to a neighborhood music store, counted the Doris Day 45’s in the retail bins…
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Zero Hedge

"The Maduro Diet" - Venezuelans Suffer Drastic Weight Loss As Hunger Crisis Strikes

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Shortages are becoming ever more severe in Venezuela. As Deutsche Welle reports, according to the World Health Organization, hospitals lack 95% of necessary medicines. Many people are undernourished and they receive no help from the government.

"An estimated 75% of Venezuelans lost at least 10 kilos last year...



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Phil's Favorites

Absurd Inflation Discussion by Fed Jackasses

Courtesy of Mish.

Minutes of the July 25-26 FOMC Meeting show internal concern over the Fed’s inability to hit 2% inflation.

I counted 89 instances of “inflation” and 79 instances of “2”. As sub-categories of 2, there were 27 instances of “2 percent” and eight instances of “below 2”.

“Longer” came up 26 times. “Transitory”, a previous standout, only came up twice. “Idiosyncratic” a new buzzword courtesy of the Cleveland Fed, came up once.

Transitory

  • Be...


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ValueWalk

Could This Be Why Warren Buffett Sold General Electric Bought Synchrony?

By F.A.S.T. Graphs. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Introduction

Warren Buffett has long been considered the consummate value investor.  His penchant for value investing is generally attributed to his relationship with the renowned father of value investing Ben Graham.  However, what is often overlooked is the influence that partner Charlie Munger brought to Warren Buffett’s investing philosophy.  Warren attributes Charlie to introducing him to the concept of investing for growth at a reasonable price.  Consequently, Warren Buffett has evolved from the traditional Ben Graham “cigar butt” value investing strategy into a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) approach.

]]> Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save...



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Digital Currencies

Ukrainian Lawmakers Disclose $45 Million In Bitcoin Holdings

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As Ukraine's crackdown on corruption continues, three lawmakers from Ukraine’s ruling party revealed this week that they own a combined $45 million in bitcoin, according to a report by RIA Novosti, a Russian foreign news service.

Their holdings came to light during mandatory financial disclosures by members of the Ukrainian parliament, part of an IMF-approved strategy to tamp down corruption in Ukraine. The country's democratic institutions, which were never very robust to begin with, have been further destabilized by...



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Insider Scoop

Home Depot Called 'The Best House' On The Retailer Block

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related HD Counting the Minutes: Fed Eyed For Possible Hints Of Balance Sheet Plans, Rate Hike Benzinga's Top Upgra...

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Chart School

Time to Short?

Courtesy of Declan.

We had the profit taking sell-off and then the bounce but is now the time for shorts to come in more aggressively? After yesterday's gapped gains there was a significant slow down in the market advance. This action presents an opportunity for shorts to attack.

The Semiconductor Index is one of the most attractive indices for shorts. The massive June bearish engulfing pattern remains dominant and offers guidance going forward. Tuesday's doji has the makings of a bearish harami cross.  Technicals are bearish and aligned in shorts favor.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of August 14th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead - now's the time to work out the ethics

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Editing human embryos with CRISPR is moving ahead – now's the time to work out the ethics

Courtesy of Jessica BergCase Western Reserve University

There’s still a way to go from editing single-cell embryos to a full-term ‘designer baby.’ ZEISS Microscopy, CC BY-SA

The announcement by researchers in Portland, Oregon that they’ve successfully modified the genetic m...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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