Posts Tagged ‘negative equity’

Where is the Bottom for Housing? We May Not Know for Years

Where is the Bottom for Housing? We May Not Know for Years

Courtesy of John Lounsbury writing at Credit Writedowns 

How far are we from a bottom in U.S. home prices?  There are many estimates that there could be another 10% or more for the national average and median prices to decline.  This author estimated that 2010 had a most probable decline around 11% from December 2009, with further declines possible in 2011.  Little decline has actually been seen as prices are quite near where they were nine months ago.  However, in the past couple of months predictions of further price declines have increased.  Two weeks ago I pointed out that the outlook for home prices may be degrading.

20% Price Decline to the Bottom?

Barry Ritholtz provides the following chart, originally from the New York Times, but updated for The Big Picture by Steve Barry.

For larger image, click on graph.

This decline is certainly within the possible limits I have discussed earlier in the year (see here and here) but the projection curve drawn by Steve Barry shows a much more gradual drop to the bottom than I have envisioned. I estimate that he is showing another 3.5 to 4 years to get 90% of the way there and 5-6 years to fully bottom out. My thinking has been that the drop to the final bottom will be much quicker, driven by the weight of foreclosures over the next one to two years.  However, current market conditions are causing me to reconsider.

Could Housing Go Below “Normal”?

What has not been considered by either Barry or me is the recurrence of another depression for housing, such as occurred from WW I to WW II. What sort of economic disaster would cause home prices to decline 55% to 60% from here? That is what would happen if the decline reproduced the 1920 bottom.

Or, asking a different question: What sort of economic disaster would result if home prices declined 55% to 60% from here? In such severe deflation, most mortgagors would default and every mortgage lender would be insolvent. There would be no future TARP or other shenanigan that could accommodate that eventuality.  This will be discussed further later in the article.

Under Water Mortgages

Calculated Risk has an excellent post about underwater mortgages. CR states that 4.1 million homeowners owe 50% or more than their house…
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The Pareto Principle and the Next Wave Down in Real Estate

The Pareto Principle and the Next Wave Down in Real Estate 

Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith Of Two Minds

In February 2007 I suggested a 4% mortgage delinquency rate could trigger a decline in the entire housing market. Since that proved prescient, we should revisit the analytic tool behind that call: the Pareto Principle.Piranha

There is a whiff of euphoria in the housing market, a heavily touted confidence that "the bottom is in." It’s all roaring back--rising sales, multiple bids by anxious buyers, 3.5% down payments, low mortgage rates and the bonus of an $8,000 first-time home buyer credit (a gift from U.S. taxpayers). Housing Lifts Recovery Hopes (Wall Street Journal)

Foreclosure-related sales account for over 30% of all sales nationally, and over 70% in hard-hit markets such as Las Vegas, but like piranhas feasting on a school of weakened fish, nobody in the real estate business mentions the huge losses of capital and equity which created all these "bargains."

All we need for a complete bubble reflation is people avidly gaming the system… oh wait, we have that, too. A recent Time magazine cover story on Las Vegas contained this informative tidbit (courtesy of Michael Goodfellow):

(Realtor) Boemio specializes in short selling, in a particularly Vegas way. Basically, she finds clients who owe more on their house than the house is worth (and that’s about 60% of homeowners in Las Vegas) and sells them a new house similar to the one they’ve been living in at half the price they paid for their old house. Then she tells them to stop paying the mortgage on their old place until the bank becomes so fed up that it’s willing to let the owner sell the house at a huge loss rather than dragging everyone through foreclosure. Since that takes about nine months, many of the owners even rent out their old house in the interim, pocketing a profit.

Hmm, isn’t this the same recipe of froth, low down payments, cheap, easy mortgage money and scamming which got us in trouble the last time? Only the lenders lose, but then now that Ginnie Mae and FHA have stepped up to replace the disgraced, bankrupt shells of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, then it really isn’t the lenders taking the risks, it’s the U.S. taxpayer (again).

It’s…
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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

US Weekly Economic Data Review and Next Week’s Schedule (Bespoke)

Below we show a summary of US economic data released this week. Despite beats on some big components, GDP disappointed, as did Durable Goods earlier this week.

Euro-Area Economy Is Finally Back to Its Pre-Crisis Size (Bloomberg)

The euro-area economy is finally back from the crisis — at least in regard to economic output.

...



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Zero Hedge

The SHOCKING Inside Scoop On Being a Guest Writer At Zero Hedge

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by George Washington.

I've been a guest writer at Zero Hedge for quite a few years. 

Shocking as it may seem, "Tyler" and the gang have put absolutely no pressure on me to spin stories one way or the other.

... Or to avoid any topics.

I've asked Tyler more than once whether I should write on a certain topic, and he's consistently - and shockingly - said I should write whatever I want.

For example, on, January 11, 2010, I wrote: "Tyler: Not Sure Whether This is Appropriate For ZH."

Tyler wrote back:

Go for it.

On August 17, 2010, I wrote:  "I don't know if I should ...



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Chart School

Best Stock Market Indicator Update

Courtesy of Doug Short's Advisor Perspectives.

We continue to receive requests for updates to the "Best Stock Market Indicator", which used to be a regular guest post from John Carlucci. Here is an update of the "Carlucci" indicator along with a summary of John's explanation on how he uses it.

As John described it: "The $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the "sweet spot" time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money."

Latest Indicator Position

According to this system, the market ...



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Phil's Favorites

Does Trump Need Indiana? New York Times vs. Mish

Courtesy of Mish.

For the second time in the past couple weeks New York Times writer Nate Cohn posted nearly the same article as I did, after I did.

April 28 Mish: Trump Picks Up at Least 37 Unbound Pennsylvania Delegates: Revised Mish Delegate Math

I estimated Trump would win Indiana, picking up 45 delegates in the process. Let’s instead assume he only wins 4 of 9 legislative districts, picking up a mere 12 delegates in the process.

The 37 votes Trump picked up in Pennsylvania will more than cover the loss.

Even if Trump loses Indiana, he does not need a miracle finish in California, just a good one and polls are...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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ValueWalk

The Psychology of Human Misjudgment | 25 Cognitive Biases | Charlie Munger @ Harvard University

By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.

The Psychology of Human Misjudgment | 25 Cognitive Biases | Charlie Munger @ Harvard University

Get The Full Series in PDF

Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.

Published on Apr 10, 2016

The Psychology of Human Misjudgment talk by Charlie Munger. Also known as Charlie Munger's 25 Cognitive Bias talk.

Charlie Munger, the billionaire investor and friend of Warren Buffett gave this to talk to high level MBA programs and value investors, to help improve ...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

King Dollar breaking down, below monthly support, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Starting in 2014, the US Dollar experienced one of its strongest 12-month rallies in its history. That strong rally pushed it up to the top of a trading channel and drove monthly momentum to the highest levels in the past 15-years.

Over the past 12-months, the US$ has pretty much just traded sideways.

Joe Friday Just The Facts; US Dollar could close out the month at “new monthly closing lows” when looking back over the past 15-months, as momentu...



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Biotech

PRGO, VRX and an Overpriced Papa

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

By Ilene 

Remember this? It was Monday. PRGO is down from around $130 to under $100 since I started following it LAST WEEK. That's down almost 25% in a week, and almost 50% in the last year. So I wrote, 

"Perrigo CEO Joseph Papa leaves Perrigo (PRGO) to lead Valeant (VRX) while PRGO issues a warning about missing earnings expectations. Not surprisingly, PRGO stock plummeted today. 

Robert Ingram, Chairman of the [Valeant] Board, stated, "The Board has conducted a thorough search process and believes that Joe is the ideal leader for Valeant at this time. He has a strong shareholder orientation,...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 25th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Is Bitcoin About To Soar?

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Back on September 2, 2015 when bitcoin was trading at $230, we laid out the simplest and most fundamental reason why, irrelevant of one's ideological persuasion with "alternative" or digital currency - bitcoin would soar.

it was earlier this summer when the digital currency, which can bypass capital controls and national borders with the click of a button, surged on Grexit concerns and fears a Drachma return would crush the savings of an entire nation. Since then, BTC has dropped (in no small part as a result of the ...



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Mapping The Market

About that debate last night

Although we try to stay focused on finding and managing promising trade ideas, the comments in the comment section sometimes take a political turn (for access, try PSW — click here!). So today, Jean Luc writes,

The GOP debate last night was just unreal – are these people running to be president of the US or to lead a college fraternity! Comparing tool size? The only guy that looks semi-sane is Kasich. The other guys are just like 3 jackals right now. 

And something else – if Trump is the candidate, that little Romney speech yesterday is probably already being made into a commercial. And all these little snippets from the debate will also make some nice ads! If you are a conservative, you have to be scared now. 

Phil writes back,

I was expecting them to start throwing poop at each other &n...



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We know you love coming here for our Stocks & Options education, strategy and trade ideas, and for Phil's daily commentary which you can't live without, but there's more!

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News: If you missed it, you can probably find it in our Market News section. We sift through piles of news so you don't have to.   

If you are looking for non-mainstream, provocatively-narrated news and opinion pieces which promise to make you think -- we feature Zero Hedge, ...



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Help One Of Our Own PSW Members

"Hello PSW Members –

This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible.  Feel free to contact me directly at jennifersurovy@yahoo.com with any questions.

Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts.  After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.)  Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.

http://www.youcaring.com/medical-fundraiser/help-get-shadowfax-out-from-the-darkness-of-medical-bills-/126743

Thank you for you time!




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