The Obama plan is exactly backwards in its approach to systemic risk. It will increase systemic risk.
As pointed out by one of the leaders of econophysics, Eugene Stanley (here), one of the prime results in the exploding field of network theory is that densely connected networks are chaotic and unstable compared to sparsely connected networks.
This only makes sense. If every part of a network affects every other part of a network it becomes very easy for large perturbations to propagate through the network, and rebound, and so on.
The Obama-Summers-Geithner solution to our problem of systemic risk is evidence of an intellectual obtuseness that is breathtaking.
The Fed created or permitted by neglect of its duties the systemic risk that caused this crash, and the Great Depression before it. Mish got this right.
The obvious solution given that systemic risk is a characteristic of the structure of the financial system is to change the structure of the system to reduce systemic risk. Break up investment banks and commercial banks. Eliminate financial institutions that are big enough to create systemic risk all by themselves (no more “too big to fail”). Make it impossible for the system to become densely connected by limiting leverage. The plan does increase capital requirements but not enough. And it leaves the trading of CDSs, the densely-linked network of derivatives that largely caused the supposed near melt-down of the system last fall, lightly regulated and less than transparent.
You can’t leave the TBTF institutions in place, or they will capture the regulators again. Or perhaps it’s better to say they’re not letting them go at this time.
Glass-Steagall and the other laws that the neocons undid over the past thirty years worked. They kept the system stable for sixty years.
Something 'odd' is going on. Amid the plethora of 11-foot-tall-men multiple-standard deviation beats in recent economic data, the Citi Macro Surprise Index did something it has never done before - it rose for 21 days straight - breaking the last 5 years trends of seasonal dumps (into mid-year) and pumps (into fiscal year-end)...
Consider that the 2nd longest winning-streak in US Macro data was 15 days in June 2008
By Jacob Wolinsky. Originally published at ValueWalk.
Bridgewater Associates is in the news again and yet again not for the reasons Ray Dalio and crew would prefer. The latest is a sexual harassment allegation from a Christopher Tarui. Tarui is described as a “34-year-old adviser to large institutional investors in Bridgewater” and he claims that a male supervisor harassed him. Specifically:
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On one occasion, he said, his supervisor confided in him that he had an ...
US equity indexes traded in a narrow range today and finished mixed ahead of Fed Wednesday. Our benchmark S&P 500 exhibited a bit of volatility in the first 90 minutes, hitting its intraday high and low about an hour apart. The index then struggled with yesterday's closing price during the lunch hour and again at the close. It managed to eke out a 0.03% gain as we move toward tomorrow's FOMC minutes and rate decision, expect by most analysts to remain unchanged.
The yield on the 10-year closed at 1.57%, down one basis point from the previous session.
Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Here is a daily chart of the index. We've highlighted the unusually narrow pattern over the past nine sessions, b...
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After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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