Posts Tagged ‘Online’

Apple Delivers Monster Quarter, Blows Away Whispers

LIVE ANALYSIS: Apple Delivers Monster Quarter, Blows Away Whispers (AAPL)

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

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Press release out…

HUGE quarter.  Revenue of $9.9 billion blows away whisper of $9.4 billion. EPS of $1.82 blows away whispers of $1.65-ish.

iPhone sales of 7.4 million in-line with estimates despite supply constraints.  Mac sales huge.  iPod sales not as bad as many had feared.

Upside appears to have come from Macs and margins.  The Mac resurgence is great news.  This business had stalled, and Apple has a huge opportunity to gain share in the PC market.

December guidance comically conservative, but not alarming. 

Overall: Wow.  Apple is on its way to becoming the defacto platform standard in mobile.  And the crumbling of Microsoft’s Windows monopoly has opened a huge window on the desktop.  The company is galloping after both opportunities.

Conference call will begin at 5PM/2PM.  Here’s the link: www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq409/   We’ll be covering it live.

CONFERENCE CALL NOTES:

5:00: Waiting for call to begin…

5:04: Call starts.  Preamble crap.

5:06: "Extremely pleased."  (Understandably.)   Revenue up 25%.  Operating margin highest ever: 22%. Adjusted numbers huge, too.

5:07: Macs.  3.05 million, up 17%  Biggest ever by 440k.  Growing faster than market 19 of last 20 quarters.  Best user experience.  17% growth compares to 2% market growth = huge market share gain.  laptops 74% of mix and all of the growth.  Successful back-to-school.  12% growth to education.  50,000 Macbooks to Maine (lucky bastards).  3-4 weeks inventory at beginning and end of quarter.

5:10: iPods.  10.2 million, down from 11 million.  iPod touch up 100% y/y, driven by back to school and App store.  Share of US market still over 70%.  Top-selling and continued to gain share year over year.  Began and ended with 4-6 weeks of inventory.  iTunes another great quarter.  Largest music retailer, 11 million songs, 7500 movies.

5:11: iPhones.  7.4 million, up 7% (last year had 2mm inventory build).  Sell-through up 38%.  Widened lead in customer satisfaction.  Start selling in China end of this month.  Also expanding carrier relationship in UK and Canada.  App Store: 500 million downloads in quarter.  $2.3 billion in quarter.

5:13: Stores.  $1.87 billion, vs $1.72 billion.  670,000 Macs vs. 576,000. 


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Microsoft-Yahoo Deal A Logistical And Regulatory Nightmare

Microsoft-Yahoo Deal A Logistical And Regulatory Nightmare

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at Clusterstock

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The official details of the Microsoft-Yahoo deal aren’t much different than the leaks we reported last night. 

Here’s our take: 

  • The deal is significantly worse than expected for Yahoo, as the company will get no money upfront. 
  • The deal is positive for Microsoft, but largely because Microsoft was nowhere in search without it.  Saving the upfront payment is also a help.
  • Ironically, the deal will likely be positive for Google, which will now likely benefit from months of purgatory as Microsoft and Yahoo work to clear regulatory scrutiny and then go through the massive challenge of trying to integrate their sales forces and technology.   Google itself will also now be able to argue persuasively that there is a big, viable (if discombobulated) competitor in the market.

Conceptually, the idea of Microsoft and Yahoo combining forces is smart.  Neither alone has enough share of the search market to be a "must buy," and search relevance and pricing improves with scale.  Both companies would likely just continue to lose share ad infinitum without a deal, so they have little to lose by working together.  And Yahoo will gain some cost savings, at least for a while.

That said, we think the structure of the deal could end up being a disaster.

The deal calls for Yahoo to handle sales and Microsoft to handle technology.  This separation of responsibilities is likely to create headache upon headache for both sides.  When a Yahoo client is unhappy with the technology execution, will Yahoo salespeople call Microsoft engineers to complain?  When Microsoft is unhappy with the way Yahoo is selling search, will Microsoft’s engineers call Yahoo to complain?  When the combination misses targets, will investors call Microsoft or Yahoo to complain? (Both?) When Microsoft licenses Bing to Ask or AOL, will Yahoo’s salespeople sell premium search for those companies, too?  What if Ask and AOL are unhappy?  Who will they call to complain?

In our opinion, sales and technology are way too tightly linked in this business to split responsibilities between two huge companies that each have other things to worry about.  We think the execution of the deal will be a nightmare.

yahoo and microsoftSee Also:  First Take On


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Google Launching OS

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Eric Schmidt, GoogleGoogle Launching OS, Firing Torpedo Into Microsoft (And Apple) Hold (MSFT, GOOG, AAPL)

Courtesy of Henry Blodget at ClusterStock

Google will launch its own operating system in the second half of next year, finally launching a direct assault on Microsoft’s crown jewel.

(It has been headed here in all but name for the past two years.  But last night it finally declared war.)

The OS will initially be targeted to netbooks, then broadened to all PCs.  It will be a combination of a Google Chrome browser and a Linux kernel.  It will be a different project than Android.  It will be designed to be simple and fast.  It will also, presumably, be free.

Google’s blog post announcing the browser is below.  A few points:

A year of development is a long time, and it shows how complex an undertaking this will be.  Announcing the product a year early is also a major break with Google tradition and shows how much Google needs help from partners in this endeavor to be successful.  (An OS that is distributed only by downloads won’t work.  It needs to come loaded on the machine.  This has been the big problem with Chrome so far, and Google needs to address it.)

Success is far from guaranteed.  Google’s browser initiative, Chrome, has been a fun little science project, but as a product it has been a flop.  The same can be said for almost all of Google’s non-search products.  If Google wants to have a chance at success in this business, it needs to focus on it with the same intensity it once put into search.  This will be challenging for Google, which, for the last several years, has had the luxury of dabbling in whatever it pleases.

Assuming the OS is free to both users and OEM PC makers, Microsoft will need to soup up the free version of its own Windows 7 OS for netbooks (right now, Microsoft’s plan is to ship a crappy free version of 7 and try to get users to upgrade.  Eventually, if Google starts to gain traction, Microsoft may need to panic.)

This is classic disruption.  Disruptive technologies do not immediately replace existing technologies because they are better.  In fact, in the beginning, they are worse.  They’re just…
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Phil's Favorites

Climate change and weather extremes: Both heat and cold can kill

 

Climate change and weather extremes: Both heat and cold can kill

Courtesy of Garth HeutelGeorgia State UniversityDavid MolitorUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and Nolan MillerUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Extreme cold weather in Atlanta, Ga., on Jan. 3, 2018. ...



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ValueWalk

Exploring Gravitational Waves

By joniferdingcong. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In 2016, US scientists for the first time announced their detection of gravitational waves, ripples in space and time hypothesized by Albert Einstein a century ago. Such a discovery represents a scientific breakthrough, opening the door to an entirely new way of observing the cosmos. In 2017, the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to three US scientists for the detection of gravitational waves. To better grasp the process of their discovery, CGTN’s Tian Wei spoke to two of them: Rainer Weiss, Emeritus Professor of Physics at MIT and Kip Thorne, Emeritus Professor of Physics at Caltech. Chen Yanbei, Professor of Physics at Caltech, also joined the talk.

mikkehouse / Pixabay...

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Zero Hedge

Stocks Suffer As 10Y Yields Reach 2014 Highs, Curve At Inflection Point

 

Stocks Suffer As 10Y Yields Reach 2014 Highs, Curve At Inflection Point

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Overnight saw 10Y Treasury yields touch 2.64%, topping the post-election peak to its highest since September 2014 (and crossing Jeff Gundlach's "red line" for stock damage). However, the yield curve's bear-steepening may suggest a turning point.

10Y is up almost 30bps since The Fed hiked rates in December...

...

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Insider Scoop

14 Stocks Moving In Friday's Pre-Market Session

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Gainers
  • Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: FORD) rose 64.5 percent to $2.04 in pre-market trading after the company reported the acquisition of Intelligent Product Solutions.
  • PLx Pharma Inc (NASDAQ: PLXP) rose 31.2 percent to $8.00 in pre-market trading. Janney Capital initiated coverage on PLx Pharma with a Buy rating and a $14.00 price target.
  • Acorda Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: ACOR) rose 15.4 percent to $28.85 in pre-market trading amid M&A chatter. The...


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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

 

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just the Beanie Babies of the moment

Courtesy of Vitaliy Katsenelson, Contrarian Edge

If you invested in the markets circa 1999, it is hard to observe the Bitcoin mania and not experience the feeling that you’ve seen this movie before and know how it will end – in losses and tears. The internet was a great idea that convinced a lot of great minds to invest capital and energy into businesses that have transformed the world – Amazon, eBay, Cisco, PayPal … the list is very long (though in fairness the list of non-survivors is even longer – but they are not here to remind us of their nonexistence).

R...



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Chart School

Short Covering Driving Gains in Semiconductors and Nasdaq 100

Courtesy of Declan.

The Nasdaq 100 breakout cleared channel resistance, the fifth significant breakout in four months. All technicals are posting new near-term highs which also meant the short generated on the tag of the rising channel is negated.


The Semiconductor Index also enjoyed a substantial breakout as short covering drove traders out of their positions. Technicals see an improvement with a relative gain against the Nasdaq 100.

...

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Biotech

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain - new study

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

How Alzheimer's disease spreads throughout the brain – new study

Courtesy of Thomas E CopeUniversity of Cambridge

Harmful tau protein spreads through networks. Author provided

Alzheimer’s disease is a devastating brain illness that affects an estimated 47m people worldwide. It is the most common cause of dementia in the Western world. Despite this, there are currently no treatments that are effective in curing Alzheimer’s disease or preventing its relentless progressio...



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Mapping The Market

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like 'Science-Based,' 'Diversity'

By Jean-Luc

These are the policies of a theocracy, not a modern democracy:

Trump Admin Bans CDC From Using Words Like ‘Science-Based,’ ‘Diversity’

The Trump administration has prohibited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from using words like “science-based,” “diversity,” and “transgender” in their official documents for next year’s budget, according to the Washington Post.

Senior CDC budget leader Alison Kelly met with the agency’s policy analysts on Thursday to announce ...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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