Posts Tagged ‘options expiration’

Options Expiration Friday – Anything Can Happen

SPY 5 MINUTEAnother crazy day ahead

What else is new in this market?  As you can see from Dave Fry's SPY chart, the pattern is holding up of high-volume (relatively) sell-offs following low-volume run-ups.  This is how the Institutional Investors manipulate the markets to dump unwanted shares on retail investors.  I've been telling you all week how it works and now we can see it in action.  

Of course, it's nice to have this knowledge ahead of time – that's the edge we strive to give to our Members at Philstockworld.  Even if you are just reading us for free and don't have access to our Live Member Chat Room, you would have done very well to follow our advice on Tuesday and go with the DIA puts at $166.80 and the DXD longs at $26.20 – it was right there on top of the morning post (which you can have mailed to you every day, pre-market by SUBSCRIBING HERE)!  In our Member Chat, the previous day, our trade ideas were:

A 5% pullback on DIA is 8.3 points (830 Dow points), back to $158.40 from here.  The June $161 puts are .95 so, if you have $100K to protect against a 10% drop, you can buy $5K worth of the June $161 puts and a 5% drop pays you back $8,000 and a 10% drop to $150 (15,000) would net you $11 per contract so a 10x return is $55,000 back – that's overhedged actually!  

On DXD, the July $25/28 spread is $1.10 and is $1.25 in the money so you get all the upside on DXD up to a 140% profit on a very small move down in the Dow.  We already have July $28 calls in the STP and it's a little too soon to roll but we will.   

On a new trade – you can just get out if the S&P holds 1,900 for more than a day – that's not too far from here.  


continue reading


Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,




Quad Witching Expiration and a Pullback from the Long Term Trend

Quad Witching Expiration and a Pullback from the Long Term Trend

Courtesy of JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN

The front month on the SP futures has now switched from March to June as a part of the Quad Witching Expiration. (Technically it switched last week, but for charting purposes I made the switch last night.) The June Futures have essentially the same formations as did March, it’s just that the earlier months have few trades to mark them.

This is the first serious test for US equities since mid-February, as it has been on a spectacular rally streak, no doubt fueled by excess liquidity applied to a selling exhaustion in the funds. Curiously not among corporate insiders who were selling at a rate of 57 to 1 in this latest rally, no doubt for diversification purposes.

The extent of this correction will be determined on the amount of actual selling that starts to occur. For now what we are seeing is more of a trading correction in response to an outsized rise in price, or as the Street likes to say, the market was getting ahead of itself.

Key levels to watch are 1135 and 1120. If we break those I would look for a consolidation around the 1080-1100 level.
 

 

 

“Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows”

Leonard Cohen, “Everybody Knows”

 

 


Tags:




US Equity Market Options Expiration: Shenanigans Central

US Equity Market Options Expiration: Shenanigans Central

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain 

Paper Dolls Cut from Stock Market Listings

For those of you not keeping track, tomorrow is option expiration for the US stock exchanges. This normally precipitates an unusual amount of gaming and painting on the tape, as the writers and holders of puts and calls shove the prices around to inflict the most pain on anyone foolish enough to play their game.

Intel reports after the bell tonight and the market is expecting great things from them.

Tomorrow the US reports CPI, and then heads into a three day weekend, as Monday is Martin Luther King day in the US. Marin Luther King had a dream; and this may not be it.

The SP 500 futures have been the lead sled dog in this rally with the banks carrying the water. The daily chart has a rising wedge on it that is quite ominous, but we recall the rising trend in the 2003-7 stock reflation that never broke, and kept rising on light volumes to the bubble peak. And the of course it collapses with the other bubbles of which it was a symptom.

Here is the last reflationary bubble that the Treasury and the Fed created. Remember that one?


 


Tags: , , , ,




Stock Market Rally: Shenanigans Abounding

Stock Market Rally: Shenanigans Abounding

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

This is just an opinion, and it could be wrong, as all opinions may be.

To be long US equities at this point seems risky, bordering on reckless, for anything but a daytrade. And there is plenty of that going on.

The US markets in general have every mark of a maturing Ponzi scheme in the steady run ups on weakness, and the ramps into the close with the selling after hours on weak volumes.

But why?

Thursday is option expiration, a quadruple witch as we recall. September is one of the big ones, often setting up declines in the month of October. Further, we have Rosh Hoshanah beginning at sundown on Friday September 18. As the saying goes, Sell Rosh HaShana and Buy Yom Kippur.

The government is anxious to encourage ‘confidence’ to the extent of skewing the statistics to create hope in the public, the consumers. The banks are flush with liquidity, but really have no place to put it but for a minimal return at Treasury, or in some hot money trades.

Where is Goldman Sachs business revenue and profit coming from now? How much real investment banking is being done? How much M&A activity and IPOs are there to sustain it at this size, unscathed by the recent market downturns?

Obama and his team have NO credibility for reform on Wall Street after their handling of Goldman Sachs and the AIG payouts. We hear that Goldman had shopped the idea of those derivatives to them, became their biggest customer, and then managed the 100 cents on the dollar payouts from the government even as AIG became hopelessly insolvent.

Bonds, stocks, metals, sugar, cocoa, and oil are all moving higher, while the dollar sinks. Is the dollar funding a new carry trade?

The markets are increasingly the flavor of choice, and if the markets do not show a way, they will make one. Volatility is a screaming buy. Put vertical spreads are remarkably cheap.

Be careful. October looks to be the stormiest of months, if we hold out until then. The market is overdue for a correction, which can be up to 20%. Given the distance we have come on thin volume, what may make this correction shocking is the speed with which it will come.

Watch the VIX.

We remain guardedly ‘optimistic’…
continue reading


Tags: , , , , , ,




 
 
 

ValueWalk

Alex Jones, on trial, blames George Soros for causing marijuana-induced brain damage

By washington times. Originally published at ValueWalk.

4657743 / PixabayAlex Jones, on trial, blames George Soros for causing marijuana-induced brain damage

Media personality and controversial conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, while testifying in court, insisted that billionaire political donor George Soros has “brain damaged a lot of people” with marijuana. As national media monitor the ongoing custody case currently unfolding in Texas between Mr. Jones and his former wife, Thursday’s accusation reverberated well beyond the Austin courthouse where…

]]>

The post Alex Jones, on trial, blames ...



more from ValueWalk

Zero Hedge

North Korea Arrests US Citizen, Threatens To Sink US Aircraft Carrier As Japan Deploys Warships

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

A third US citizen has been arrested and remains in custody in North Korea, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap. A man, a Korean-American professor in his 50s, identified by the surname Kim, had been in North Korea for a month to discuss relief activities and was detained at Pyongyang International Airport just as he was leaving North Korea, the agency reported.

The man was a former professor at Yanbian University of Scie...



more from Tyler

Phil's Favorites

Neil deGrasse Tyson on the Threat of Science Denial

 

Neil deGrasse Tyson on the Threat of Science Denial

Courtesy of 

This post first appeared on BillMoyers.com.

Just in time for Earth Day, astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson releases a short film on Facebook that he says "may be the most important words I have ever spoken." It's already been viewed nearly 20 million times.

DeGrasse Tyson highlights some of the points he made in his three-part series of conversations with Bill Moyers in 2014, which explored a variety of topics, including the beauty of the scientific method in the search for truth, the value of innovations in science and technology in the ascendency of America, and how political debates ...



more from Ilene

Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Wall Street gears up for busiest earnings week in years (Reuters)

Corporate America is set to unleash its biggest profit-reporting fest in at least a decade next week, with more than 190 members of the S&P 500 index .SPX delivering quarterly scorecards, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data.

Draghi Says ECB Hasn’t Seen Evidence of Durable Eurozone Infl...



more from Paul

Members' Corner

Should I buy that stock?

Courtesy of Phil Stasukaitis (pstas)

I was asked by my local investment club to do a presentation on "how to buy a stock?" As I pondered the question, I began by noting all the elements that I monitor regularly and which come in to play as part of my decision process. As the group is comprised novices to experts, I tried to gear my discussion to cover both basics and more advanced concepts.

Four Part Discussion

  1. Macro Economic Indicators
  2. Market Indexes
  3. Fundamental Analysis
  4. Technical Analysis

1. Macro Economic Indicators

We'll start with reviewing some basic concepts and measurements that have direct effects on the stock market. 

A. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

...

more from Our Members

Kimble Charting Solutions

Banks at risk if this support gives ways, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Regional and Large banks have done well since the election. Of late they have lagged the broad market and find themselves testing what could be very important support levels. Below looks at regional bank ETF (KRE).

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

KRE has experienced a rally that started in February of 2016. This rally picked up speed following the election last November, as KRE almost went verti...



more from Kimble C.S.

Insider Scoop

15 Biggest Mid-Day Gainers For Friday

Courtesy of Benzinga.

  • China Digital TV Holding Co., Ltd.(ADR) (NYSE: STV) shares jumped 33.9 percent to $1.70. China Digital TV declared a special cash dividend of US$1.50 per ordinary share.
  • Carver Bancorp Inc (NASDAQ: CARV) shares surged 31 percent to $5.23.
  • CAI International Inc (NYSE: CAI) rose 21.3 percent to $18.75 after the company reported upbeat quarterly profit.
  • Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: PTX) shares...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Chart School

Markets Rally, But Still Work To Do.

Courtesy of Declan

A positive response to Friday's selling helped erase those losses, but for many indices it wasn't enough to recover support or reverse technical 'sell' triggers.

The S&P is on the verge of a 'death cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs as the rally finished just below the 50-day MA. The consolidation channel remains in play and this should see higher prices in the latter part of the year, but for now, it's drifting down in a relatively controlled manner.
 

A second 'bear trap' could be ...



more from Chart School

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of April 17th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



more from OpTrader

Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



more from M.T.M.

Biotech

CAR-T & CRISPR - the Future is Now

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

PSW Members....it has been a while since my last post, but since many have all been on the board following the chat, it is time for a scientific lesson in a few of the companies we are long.  In addition, another revolution is coming in the medical field, and it will be touched upon as well.

CAR-T - stands for Chimeric antigen receptors (CARs) and the T is for T-cell.  

From the picture above, T-cells are one cell type of our immune system that fight off infection as well as they are one player at keeping rogue cells from becoming cancerous. Unfortunately, cancer somehow evades the immune system and so it begins.

CAR-T came along in the late1980s via a brilliant scientist, Zelig Eshhar...



more from Biotech

Digital Currencies

Blockchain And Us - The Documentary

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

In 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto invented bitcoin and the blockchain. For the first time in history, his invention made it possible to send money around the globe without banks, governments or any other intermediaries. The concept of the blockchain isn’t very intuitive. But still, many people believe it is a game changer.

The first 40 years of the Internet brought e-mail, social media, mobile applications, online shopping, Big Data, Open Data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things.

Information technology is at the heart of everything today - good and bad.  

Despite advances in privacy, security, and inclusion, one thing is still missing from the Internet: Trust.

...



more from Bitcoin

Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

more from Promotions

All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

more from David



FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

Learn more About Phil >>


As Seen On:




About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the site market shadows, archives, more. Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

Market Shadows >>