Posts Tagged
‘Options’
by ilene - January 15th, 2010 1:50 pm
Here’s Pharmboy’s first stock and options recommendation for the new year, or decade. He’s generally bullish on Lilly and presents two strategies - a simple buy/write strategy and a slightly more complicated strategy which includes selling puts and calls. - Ilene
Courtesy of Pharmboy
Another year has come and gone, 2010 (twenty ten or two thousand ten – which do you prefer?) is here. The market is great for some, and a baffling experience for others. One thing we do know is that we all need, at some point, health care in one form or another! This year, my write-ups may focus on longer term strategies so that we don’t have to manage our trades on a daily basis. This means a bit more depth in the analysis of companies we invest in, and perhaps some longer term picks.
So, here we go for Pharmboy’s first segment for a new decade!
Eli Lilly (LLY) - is a global pharmaceutical company and is a member of the Fortune 500. Its global headquarters is located in Indianapolis, Indiana. The company was founded in 1876 by a pharmaceutical chemist, Eli Lilly, after whom the company was ultimately named. The company’s first innovation was changing the flavorings of medicines so that they were easier to take. The business grew and in 2008, had of $20Billion.
Among the company’s major pharmaceutical breakthroughs are: cephalosporin (antibiotic), erythromycin (antibiotic), insulin, and fluoxetine (Prozac). Among other distinctions, Lilly is the world’s largest manufacturer and distributor of medications used in a broad range of psychiatric and mental health-related conditions, including clinical depression, generalized anxiety disorder, narcotic addiction, insomnia, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, and others. Below is a list of their brands:
Cancer
Cardiology
Cardiology/Pulmonary
Diabetes
Byetta® (exenatide) injection
Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathic Pain (DPNP)
Erectile Dysfunction
Fibromyalgia
Growth Disorders
Neuroscience
Osteoporosis
Sepsis
Lilly announced via the WSJ that it was hiring outside contractors to run tests on…
Tags: drugs, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Merck, Options, pharmaceutical company, Stock Market
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by ilene - January 14th, 2010 7:04 pm
Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain
For those of you not keeping track, tomorrow is option expiration for the US stock exchanges. This normally precipitates an unusual amount of gaming and painting on the tape, as the writers and holders of puts and calls shove the prices around to inflict the most pain on anyone foolish enough to play their game.
Intel reports after the bell tonight and the market is expecting great things from them.
Tomorrow the US reports CPI, and then heads into a three day weekend, as Monday is Martin Luther King day in the US. Marin Luther King had a dream; and this may not be it.
The SP 500 futures have been the lead sled dog in this rally with the banks carrying the water. The daily chart has a rising wedge on it that is quite ominous, but we recall the rising trend in the 2003-7 stock reflation that never broke, and kept rising on light volumes to the bubble peak. And the of course it collapses with the other bubbles of which it was a symptom.
Here is the last reflationary bubble that the Treasury and the Fed created. Remember that one?
Tags: Equities, Options, options expiration, Shenanigans, Stock Market
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by ilene - December 13th, 2009 11:07 am
This is a very thoughtful article on the banks, the financial system, government and regulation. I share Steve’s feeling of bleakness, maybe more so, because while Steve suggests workable solutions are possible, it seems to me that given the political money system controlling government, real, long-lasting solutions are unlikely. (My yellow highlights.) - Ilene
Courtesy of Steve Randy Waldman at Interfluidity
I have always flattered myself that I would someday die either in prison or with a rope around my neck. So I was excited when The Epicurean Dealmaker invited me to write about financial regulation and crosspost at a site called The New Decembrists. But my views on the topic have grown both more vehement and more distant from the terms of the current debate (such as it is), and I’m having a hard time expressing myself. So I’ll ask readers’ indulgence, go slowly, and start from the beginning. This will be the first long post of a series.
Banks are not financial intermediaries. Their role is not, as the storybooks pretend, to serve as a nexus between savers with capital and entrepreneurs in need of capital for economically valuable projects. Savers do transfer funds to banks, and banks do transfer funds to borrowers. But transfers of funds are related to the provision of capital like nightfall is related to lovemaking. Passion and moonlight are often found together, yes, and there are reasons for that. But the two are very distinct phenomena. They are connected more by coincidence than essence.
The essence of capital provision is bearing economic risk. The flow of funds is like the flow of urine: important, even essential, as one learns when the prostate malfunctions. But “liquidity”, as they say, takes care of itself when the body is healthy. In financial arrangements, whenever capital is amply provided — whenever there is a party clearly both willing and able to bear the risks of an enterprise — there is no trouble getting cash from people who can be certain of its repayment. Always when people claim there is a dearth of “liquidity”, they are really pointing to an absence of capital and expressing disagreement with potential funders about the risks of a venture. Before the Fed swooped in to provide, 2007-vintage CDOs were “illiquid” because the private parties asked to make markets in them or lend against them perceived those activities as horribly risky at…
Tags: Banks, Financial System, government, Options, private sector, risk
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by Phil - October 11th, 2009 6:00 pm
From the Options Industry Council:
The results of a new study examining the use of options in a collar strategy (both active and passive implementations) on the PowerShares QQQ™ exchange-traded fund (ETF) show it provides superior returns to the traditional buy and hold strategy while reducing risk by almost 65%.
The Options Industry Council (OIC) is pleased to note the study reaffirms the risk management potential of equity options, finding that during the entire 10-year study period, including the sub-periods around the tech bubble and credit crisis, collars significantly outperformed the QQQ, providing much needed capital protection.
“Loosening Your Collar: Alternative Implementations of QQQ Collars,” by Edward Szado and Thomas Schneeweis, looked at data from March 1999 to May 2009. It concluded that over the entire 122 month period the passive collar returned almost 150%, while the QQQ lost one-third of its value. The active collar outperformed both strategies and returned more than 200%.
Additionally, the study simulated a collar on a small-cap mutual fund. The return of the active mutual fund collar was four times the return of the fund, while the standard deviation was about one-third lower. The study was conducted by the Isenberg School of Management’s Center for International Securities and Derivatives Markets (CISDM) at the University of Massachusetts.
Typically, you want to employ a collar to protect a dividend-paying stock from losing value. We employed this strategy successfully in our last $100K Portfolio with KMP, who pay a healthy 7.6% dividend but had fallen 35% in 6 months in March. As we were re-entering the position back at $40 (with a 10% dividend), we were happy to be in it just for the premiums.
The study makes for a very interesting read. We do not employ full collars very often but they are a very useful strategy to know as you can "lock down" your positions when the markets get rough and it’s also a great way to vacation-proof your portfolio without having to alter your existing positions. Also, as noted in the study, an active management approach - like the one we employ in our buy/writes (rolling the short positions along) leads to the greatest benefits over time. As the OIC says about the strategy:
This strategy offers the stock protection of a put. However, in return for accepting a limited upside profit potential on his underlying shares (to the call’s strike price), the investor writes a call contract. Because the premium received from writing the…
Tags: Collar trades, Education, Options, strategy
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by ilene - September 22nd, 2009 2:07 pm
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Cancel that Prius, just like commodity technicians Fall Out Boy once sang, "Oil, We’re Going Down".
OK, it was Sugar. But Oil is definitely going lower. Seriously.
Why you ask? Because the puts are overpriced, says Bloomberg.
The gap between prices of options betting on a decline and those that would profit from a rise in oil widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. Crude stockpiles in the U.S. are 14 percent larger than a year ago and OPEC is pumping 600,000 barrels a day more than the world needs, according to the International Energy Agency.
…..Options granting the right to sell, or put, oil in December below current prices have a so-called implied volatility of 54.3 percent, compared with 43.3 percent for the equivalent options to buy, or call, data from the New York Mercantile Exchange show.
The premium for December and other put options shows “the market is worried,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, a senior oil analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. “If puts are pricing higher than calls, we are looking at a situation where the market is more averse to the downside and is looking for more compensation” for the option, he said.
Demand for puts may be caused by speculators betting on lower prices or by producers hedging against a decline in the value of their oil, Tchilinguirian said.
Well technically they don’t say the options will be right, it’s just presented as consistent with everything else in the article that points to an oil decline. But since we’re an options site (sort of) let’s stick with this.
As my friends Jared and Don would surely agree, Bloomberg gets a bit "so-called" happy. News-flash: It’s not "so-called" implied volatility you refer to, it IS implied volatility.
But more important than semantics, it’s unclear what options we compare here. Are we talking puts and calls of the same strike, in which case the disparity of put volatility to call volatility is about cost of carry, and not sentiment.
(I mean so-called cost of carry and so-called sentiment).
Are "equivalent options to buy" a call with a similar delta or similar distance from the current price? In other words, are we comparing a put that’s 10% OTM to a call that’s 10% OTM? I have no clue, all I know is that it’s a record.
I…
Tags: calls, oil prices, Options, puts, volat, volatility
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by ilene - September 22nd, 2009 9:18 am
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
From Bloomberg:
Oil traders are paying more than ever in the options market to protect against a plunge in crude prices.
The gap between prices of options betting on a decline and those that would profit from a rise in oil widened to a record 10 percentage points, according to five years of data compiled by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch. Crude stockpiles in the U.S. are 14 percent larger than a year ago and OPEC is pumping 600,000 barrels a day more than the world needs, according to the International Energy Agency.
While the recovery from the first global recession since World War II pushed oil up 62 percent this year to $72.04 a barrel in New York, growth alone isn’t likely to erode the glut by the end of next year because production exceeds demand, data from the Paris-based IEA shows. A drop in prices would penalize companies from Exxon Mobil Corp. to BP Plc and exporters Russia and Saudi Arabia.
“If ever there was going to be a retreat below $60 a barrel, it is now,” Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania, said in a telephone interview. “It was a very weak summer. We came out with more gasoline than we started.”
Right to Sell
Options granting the right to sell, or put, oil in December below current prices have a so-called implied volatility of 54.3 percent, compared with 43.3 percent for the equivalent options to buy, or call, data from the New York Mercantile Exchange show.
The premium for December and other put options shows “the market is worried,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, a senior oil analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. “If puts are pricing higher than calls, we are looking at a situation where the market is more averse to the downside and is looking for more compensation” for the option, he said.
Demand for puts may be caused by speculators betting on lower prices or by producers hedging against a decline in the value of their oil, Tchilinguirian said.
Oil inventories totaled about 2.8 billion barrels at the end of July within the 30 nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to the IEA. The total is equal to 62 days of demand, and 4.6 percent more than the same time last year.
Brimming Stockpiles
Supplies are brimming on both sides…
Tags: crude oil prices, oil traders, Options, protection
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by Phil - July 3rd, 2009 3:17 pm
By Travis W of PursuingWealth.com
Finding investing education advice for stock options trading can be a frustrating endeavor at times. New traders often share with me that it feels like the options trading community is a very tight-lipped community with a high price of admission. I’ve been through that process so I’d like to offer you some advice.
Learning to invest your own money is a journey, not a destination. It takes time, patience, and education. It’s a proactive journey for those who no longer desire to be a victim of the so called experts.
Over the years I’ve made enough mistakes and have had enough successes to know that the ability to master your money is not something that just happens. It takes a bit of work on your part.
Increasing your investment IQ is a key part, especially when you’re dealing with stock options. You have to find a qualified and trustworthy source for investing education. There’s quite a bit of hype out there so you have to filter out all the "noise".
You may have already searched online for information on stock options, or read a few books. Most people are drawn to options trading by the potential to create large sums of money in a short period of time. Here is my forewarning; having a great deal of head knowledge about stock options doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be a great trader. It’s going to take some real world practice.
Most of what I’ve learned about investing did not come from a classroom or a book; it came from real world experiences. I found people who were willing to give me unbiased investing education and I applied the knowledge through practice and a bit of trial and error.
Investing Education is your Financial Road Map
Investing education has a purpose in our lives like a map has a purpose to a traveler. A map can take you from point "A" to point "B" when you’re traveling. Investing education can take you from school loans, credit card debt, and no budget to debt-free with money to burn. It’s your financial map so to speak.
You could try to figure out options trading on your own, but if you’re smart and value your time you’ll find a map that can get you to your destination quicker. It’s extremely rare for me to meet someone who doesn’t want to provide additional income for their family, position themselves to retire early,…
Tags: Education, Hedging, Options, stock
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by ilene - June 11th, 2009 3:25 pm
[Sign up for free membership and PSW Reports - click here, no credit card, instant access to articles. - Ilene]
Courtesy of Adam Warner at Daily Options Report
Time to shake up the investment cart? Stephen Sears had some options shorting ideas in
Barron’s the other day.
Consider the financial sector. Options on many financial stocks remain at historically-high volatility levels even though many of the stocks have doubled in value off their 2009 lows. The heightened volatility indicates that options traders, generally the most sophisticated stock investors, are cautious about stocks such as Bank of America (ticker: BAC), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) that have rallied so far, and still remain far from historical highs.
Individual investors can monetize the fear of many professional investors by selling options to buy stocks.
To Scott Fullman, WJB Capital’s derivatives strategist, the financial sector’s high volatility is an opportunity to build positions using a "covered combination" strategy.
Rather than just buying stock all at once, or building a position in a stock, the "covered combination" strategy lets investors benefit from high put and call prices.
Consider Goldman Sachs. Most investors who want to own the stock would just pay the recent market price of $146. But by only buying half as much stock as desired, and selling an out-of-the-money put and call, investors set themselves up to potentially buy stock at a discount.
The October 165 call, for example was recently trading at $7.75, and the October 115 put was at $5. This means that an investor who used options to build a stock position would initially be paid by the options market to buy the stock. If Goldman’s stock was trading at $165 at October expiration, Fullman says investors would realize a profit of $30.34, and a return of 38%.
If the investor has to buy stock because the put is "assigned," Fullman says the cost of buying the stock would be $124.83, or about 15% below the stock price.
Look, I could argue this two ways. One is that it’s misleading to look at options sales as "yeah, I would sell GS at 180 and buy it at 125, so why not?" Stocks always look like sales 25% up and down, so ergo options are always a sale. Until the stock gets to one of those prices.
But the flip side is, I do like the idea as an alternative to owning stock. In fact almost…
Tags: Options, premium, short puts, volatility
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by ilene - June 8th, 2009 8:02 pm
[Free subscription to PSW, click here - it's easy - Ilene]
Constructing equivalent option positions,…
Courtesy of Minyanville, by Mark Wolfinger
One of the interesting features about options is that there’s a relationship between calls, puts, and the underlying stock. And because of that relationship, some option positions are equivalent – that means identical profit/loss profiles — to others.
Why is that important? You’ll discover that some option combinations – called spreads – are easier, or less costly to trade than others. Even with today’s low commissions, why spend more than you must?
The basic equation that describes an underlying and its options is: Owning one call option and selling one put option (with the same strike price and expiration date) is equivalent to owning 100 shares of stock. Thus,
S = C - P; where S = stock; C = call; P = put
If you want a simple proof that the above equation is true, consider a position that’s long one call and short one put. When expiration arrives, if the call option is in the money, you exercise the call and own 100 shares. If the put option is in the money, you’re assigned an exercise notice and buy 100 shares of stock. In either case, you own stock.
Note: If the stock is at the money when expiration arrives, you’re in a quandary. You don’t know if the put owner is going to exercise the put. Therefore, you don’t know whether to exercise the call. If you want to maintain the long stock position, the simplest way out is to buy the put – paying $0.05 or less — and exercise the call.
Example of Equivalent Positions
There’s one equivalent position that you, the options rookie, should know, because these are strategies you’re likely to adopt.
Take a look at a covered-call position (long stock and short one call), or S - C.
From the equation above, S - C = -P. In other words, if you own stock and sell one call option (this is covered-call writing), then your position is equivalent to being short one put option with the same strike and expiration. That position is naked short the put. Amazingly, some brokers don’t allow all clients to sell naked puts, but they allow all to write covered calls. The world isn’t always efficient (you already knew that).
Thus, writing a covered call is equivalent to selling a naked put. This isn’t a big deal…
Tags: calls, Options, puts, spreads
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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