At first blush, about one quarter of the increase in March payrolls appears to be related to the hiring of census workers and another half of the gain seems to be a payback from the weather-related distortions of February. The February payroll decline of 36,000 was revised to a loss of 14,000 while the 26,000 decrease in January payrolls reported a month ago was revised to a gain of 14,000. Thus, there was a cumulative 62,000 net upward revision to January and February payrolls.
Census additions were 48,000 and the weather impacts is expected to be about 100,000, thus the net organic add was just barely positive. Keep in mind the birth-death in March was +81,000 (vs. 97,000 in February) for the adjusted metric, so one wonders how much of this gain was purely adjusted on paper. If one excludes birth-death we get -67,000.
The U-6 rate increased by 10 bps, to 16.9%.
Average hourly earning decreased by 0.1% to $22.47 even as the average weekly hours increased by six minutes to 34 hours.
The question on everyone’s mind: is this statistic improvement in the data sufficient for the Fed to reconsider ZIRP.
The answer is a resounding no. Although keep an eye on the 10 Year. We may just break 4% today.
Below is the Statement of Keith Hall, Commissioner of the BLS
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was 9.7 percent for the third month in a row. Job gains continued in temporary help services and in health care, while job losses occurred in financial activities and in information. The March employment increase also included 48,000 workers hired by the federal government for Census 2010.
Temporary help services employment increased by 40,000 in March. Since last September, employment in this industry has grown by 313,000, or 18 percent.
Health care added 27,000 jobs in March, compared with an average monthly gain of 18,000 over the prior 12 months. Mining employment rose by 8,000 in March. This industry has added 31,000 jobs since last October.
Federal government employment rose over the month, reflecting ramped-up hiring for Census 2010. In March, the Census Bureau brought on 48,000 temporary workers. Employment…
How do you know the Fed is justified in hiking again, the economy is recovering, and the market are zooming higher? One hint is the just announced thousands in layoffs in both the energy and tech sector, among which are Shell, which announced it would layoff 2,200 jobs; Microsoft reporting it would cut 1,850; and Intel terminating up to 350 jobs in Germany.
Shell Cuts 2,200 More Jobs, Bringing Total Losses to 12,500
oday the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index fell 15 points to -1 from last month's 14. Investing.com had forecast 9.0. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at 11.7, indicating expansion. The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report (available here), which dates from November 1993.
Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series.
The ECB said in the latest edition of its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review that a rise in political risk “pose[s] a challenge to fiscal and structural reform implementation and, by extension, public debt sustainability”.
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Do you remember when you were growing up and all your friends were allowed Atari game consoles but you weren’t?
Well, I do and the things seemed as foreign to me as Venus. Mostly because the little time I managed to spend on the gaming consoles when my friends weren’t hogging them I found it all a bit silly. I never “got” computer games, and to this day still have poor comprehension of things like Angry Birds.
I suspect that many people around the world view Bitcoin in the same way as I view Angry Birds: with mild amusement and a general lack of understanding as to what the hell all the fuss is about.
I was thinking of this since a buddy of mine recently started ...
After a three-year bull run that more than quadrupled its value by its peak last July, IBD’s Medical-Biomed/Biotech Industry Group plunged 50% by early February, hurt by backlashes against high drug prices and mergers that seek to lower corporate taxes.
This is a non-trading topic, but I wanted to post it during trading hours so as many eyes can see it as possible. Feel free to contact me directly at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
Last fall there was some discussion on the PSW board regarding setting up a YouCaring donation page for a PSW member, Shadowfax. Since then, we have been looking into ways to help get him additional medical services and to pay down his medical debts. After following those leads, we are ready to move ahead with the YouCaring site. (Link is posted below.) Any help you can give will be greatly appreciated; not only to help aid in his medical bill debt, but to also show what a great community this group is.
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