RGLD - Royal Gold, Inc. – The gold mining company’s shares are up 3.05% this afternoon to arrive at $60.11, but near-term options activity suggests some strategists are positioning for the price of the underlying stock to pull back ahead of May expiration. Investors may be taking cautious or even pessimistic stances on Royal Gold ahead of the company’s third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release before the market opens on May 5, 2011. More than 3,400 put options changed hands at the May $55 strike on previously existing open interest of just 519 contracts. It looks nearly all of the puts were purchased for an average premium of $0.35 apiece. Investors are buying low-delta puts, perhaps as a relatively cheap form of near-term downside protection in case of an earnings disappointment or some unforeseen exogenous shock that sends markets, particularly gold mining companies, lower. Traders long the puts make profit at expiration if shares in Royal Gold plunge 9.1% off the current price of $60.11 to breach the average breakeven point at $54.65 by May expiration. Other bearish signals appeared shortly after the put activity took place in the front month. Investors sold approximately 1,500 now in-the-money calls at the May $60 strike to take in net premium of $1.90 per contract. Perhaps call sellers see shares in Royal Gold tapering off and trading below $60.00 at expiration, in which case, traders keep the full amount of premium received on the transaction. Alternatively, traders may be long the underlying, selling covered calls on the stock. Options implied volatility is currently up 5.8% at 27.61% as of 12:50pm in New York.
PENN - Penn National Gaming, Inc. – Shares in the owner and manager of casinos and racetracks surged 7.6% this morning to $40.19, their highest since June 2008, after the company raised its full-year earnings and sales projections. PENN reported better-than-expected first-quarter net income of $0.48 a share on revenue of $667 million ahead of the opening bell on…
Today’s tickers: GME, CHE, PENN, JPM, MED, SLE & WYNN
GME - Gamestop Corp. – Bullish options strategies were initiated on the video game retailer today despite the 0.70% dip in the price of the underlying shares to $19.86. One long-term optimistic individual employed the use of a three-legged combination, selling puts to buy a call spread, in order to prepare for a rebound in Gamestop’s shares by April expiration. The investor purchased 3,000 calls at the April 2011 $20 strike for a premium of $2.13 each, sold 3,000 calls at the higher April 2011 $24 strike for premium of $0.72 apiece, and shed 3,000 puts at the April 2011 $16 strike at a premium of $0.81 a-pop. Net premium paid to initiate the spread amounts to $0.60 per contract. Thus, the trader is poised to profit should GME’s shares rally above the effective breakeven price of $20.60 by April expiration day. Maximum available profits of $3.40 per contract are safe in the investor’s wallet if the video game seller’s shares jump 20.85% over the current price of $19.86 to exceed $24.00 by expiration. Finally, a 3,000-lot October $20/$24 strike call spread traded around the same time as the three-legged transaction. Open interest in the near-term calls is sufficient to cover today’s volume. The investor responsible for the October contract activity may be rolling the spread up to the April contract and adding the short puts to provide additional financing on the bullish stance.
CHE - Chemed Corp. – Shares of the provider of hospice care as well as various consumer services such as plumbing and sewer cleaning via its Roto-Rooter segment slipped 2.00% to $55.34 as of 3:40 pm ET. Investors with a near-term bearish view on the stock appear to have sold 2,000 calls outright at the November $60 strike to pocket premium of $0.55 per contract. Call sellers keep the full premium received on the trade as long as Chemed’s shares fail to rally above $60.00 by expiration day next month. Investors could…
Sam Antar makes a request to CFOs, Audit Committees, and auditors of public companies’ financial reports: study the SEC’s rules governing the calculation of non-GAAP measures such as EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), and follow them. Correct the mistakes before the reports get filed so Sam doesn’t have to write an article and I don’t have to post it.
For example, Penn National Gaming (PENN) erroneously reported EBITDA as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization AND charges for stock compensation, impairment losses, disposal of assets, losses from unconsolidated affiliates and the Empress Casino Hotel fire--that would be an "Adjusted EBITDA" or in PENN’s case, EBITDASCILDALUAECHFIRE.
To learn how to read a financial report and discover if the company you’ve invested in is calculating EBITDA properly or inflating this number, read Sam’s article. – Ilene
It’s pathetic that so many public companies miscalculate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) and violate Regulation G governing the calculation of non-GAAP measures such as EBITDA. It seems that too many CFOs, Audit Committees, and auditors don’t take the time to thoroughly review compliance with all appropriate SEC financial reporting rules.
Starting in 2007, I reported improper EBITDA calculations by Overstock.com (NASDAQ: OSTK). After a brutal yearlong public battle, Overstock.com’s embittered CEO Patrick Byrne finally changed his company’s EBITDA calculation to comply with Regulation G. For additional details, please read Lee Webb’s Stockwatch article and Richard Sauer’s book.
Last July, I reported apparently erroneous EBITDA calculations by Penson Worldwide (NASDAQ: PNSN) and Comtech Telecommunications (NASDAQ: CMTL).
In this blog post, I will report erroneous EBITDA calculations by five more public companies: A. H. Belo Corporation (NYSE: AHC), FirstService Corporation (NASDAQ: FSRV), Animal Health International, Inc. (NASDAQ: AHII), Schawk Inc. (NYSE: SGK), and Penn National Gaming Inc. (NASDAQ: PENN).
First, let’s review how EBITDA supposed to be calculated
PENN – Shares of the gaming and racing company have lifted 8% to $30.79 amid gains experienced by a number of casino operators today. PENN edged onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after one investor initiated a put spread in the October contract. The spread was established through the purchase of 6,550 puts at the October 25 strike price for 2.02 each against the sale of 6,550 puts at the lower October 20 strike for a premium of 79 cents. The net cost of the transaction amounts to 1.23 and yields a maximum potential profit of 3.77 if shares declined to $20.00 by expiration. Such a trade could represent downside protection by an individual who is long the stock. Or, it could potentially represent a medium-term bearish position by a trader hoping to profit in the event of a 22% decline in shares through the breakeven point at $23.77 by expiration. – Penn National Gaming, Inc.
CIT – The bank holding company’s shares have rallied nearly 7% to $3.38 today, attracting some bullish option players seeking to benefit from further gains in the stock. Call-volume at the near-term June 5.0 strike price ballooned upward by more than 48,000 as investors purchased at least 37,200 contracts for an average premium of 23 cents each. The calls will begin to yield profits to investors if the underlying shares can increase 55% from the current price and surpass the breakeven point at $5.23 by expiration. Optimism spread to the July 5.0 strike where 5,500 calls were coveted for 40 cents apiece. Finally, the October 5.0 strike attracted some bullish action as well as some 2,000 calls appear to have been bought for 65 cents per contract. Option implied volatility climbed as high as 192% during the trading day up from Friday’s closing value of 151%. – CIT Group, Inc.
EXPE– Shares of the online travel company have climbed more than 6% to $15.88 amid renewed takeover chatter reported by one source. Option traders on EXPE have braced themselves for bullish movement in the stock as some 2,300 calls were purchased at the near-term June 17.5 strike price for an average premium of 35 cents per contract. In order to profit from a long-call position by expiration shares of Expedia must double today’s rally in order to breach the…
Two weeks ago we wrote of SEC compliance examiner (yes, compliance examiner) Steven Glichrist who was arrested for being non-compliant with the SEC's ethics requirement to disclose his financial holdings. "New York-based SEC employee Steven Gilchrist was charged with three counts of making false statements regarding the nature of his personal financial holdings. As WSJ reports, the 48-year-old compliance examiner at the agency, allegedly certified that his stock holdings were in compliance with the agency's ethics rules, when i...
Overview: The Sentier Research monthly median household income data series is now available for October. Nominal median household incomes were down $230 month-over-month but up $704 year-over-year. However, adjusted for inflation, real incomes increased only $199 MoM and are up only $217 YoY (-0.4% and 0.4%, respectively). And these numbers do not factor in the expiration of the 2% FICA tax cut. The median real household income is up only 2.7% since its Financial Crisis trough set in the summer of 2011, now 26 months later. Improvement has been excruciatingly slow and erratic.
The traditional source of household income data is the Census Bureau, which publishes annual household income data in mid-September for the previous year. The 2012 annual updates were published last week.
Major oil companies continue an aggressive push into deeper water as the memory of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout recedes. Spurred on by consistently high prices for crude oil, the decline of conventional oil fields, and the advent of new drilling technologies, companies like BP plan bigger investments in offshore oil in the coming years.
BP is still not out of the woods in terms of its legal liabilities stemming from the 2010 disaster, but they are pushing into deeper waters. In August 2013 BP began appraising its Tiber field, a “giant” oil field that could ...
American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) reported a drop in its third-quarter profit and issued a weak earnings forecast for the current quarter.
American Eagle now projects Q4 earnings of $0.26 to $0.30 per share, versus analysts' estimates of $0.39 per share.
American Eagle's quarterly profit declined to $24.9 million, or $0.13 per share, versus a year-ago profit of $78.6 million, or $0.39 per share. Its adjusted earnings fell to $0.19 per share from $0.41 per share.
Its revenue dropped to $857.3 million from $910.4 million. However, analysts were estimating earnings of $0.19 per share on revenue of $856 million.
American Eagle shares declined 5.49% to $15.50 in pre-market trading.
CELG – Celgene Corp – Shares in Celgene rallied 3.6% on Thursday to an all-time high of $165.88 after the fourth-largest biotechnology company was raised to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ with an increased target share price of $200.00 at UBS. Options changing hands on the stock this morning suggests some traders are positioning for the price of the underlying to continue higher next week.
The most traded contracts on CELG by volume are the 13 Dec ’13 $165 strike calls, with around 2,500 calls in play against open interest of 675 contrac...
As the charts last week indicated might happen, the S&P 500 has fallen four straight days and failed to hold its breakout above 1800 while the Dow Jones Industrials lost 16,000. Only the NASDAQ is still holding on to its breakout above 4000. Although the Basic Materials sector was the leader on Wednesday, the Technology sector was strong, as well, and in fact Tech stocks have been the strongest over the past week and the past month.
As markets finally show a willingness to pullback somewhat from their torrid pace, the bears are trotting out every naysayer they can lay their hands on to scare investors away, including smart folks like Carl Icahn, who is “very cautious,” and Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller and his stock market “bubble” assertions. Sure, valuations are high on a historic...
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This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
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These rallies are becoming familiar. In early July we saw a streak of 12 of 13 sessions in a row up, early September 11 of 12, and mid October 11 of 13 (current streak). It is a bit uncanny the similarities and how the escalator goes straight up in vertical ascent as we see indexes come out of mini corrections during QE. So we are about at the same stage where the last two began to tire, so it will be interesting if this is similar or if the current consensus of the market that there is nothing to worry about until next year as the Fed and D.C. are both off the table and this 3% annual growth rate in earnings we are now seeing in the S...
Welcome to the fouth update of the IRA Virtual Portfolio. First I am going to summarize the current state of the Portfolio then I will get into all the activity we had during September expiration.
Profit and Loss – Net of closed positions the portfolio is up a total of $769
Market Commentary – Last expiration I said, "I would like to put a total of $20,000 to work by the end of SEP expiration. If the VIX pops up to around 20 I plan to put about $50,000 total to work." The market didn't quite reach the goal but I did manage to deploy $15,000 of buying power. I still feel the market is too high and expect a correction during October. If the vix pops up to around 20 I still plan to put about $50,000 to work. If a correction doesn't happen I still plan to have a total of $25,000 in buying power put to work by October expiration. Now on to the act...
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Come and get it! Read all about it! Biotechs, biotechs and more biotechs to buy buy buy for your portfolio! To date, almost 30 biotech companies have hit the market. Most of the time, there are fewer than 10-12!
For the last five years, biotechs have had issues obtaining offer prices above expectations. In 2013, that trend looks to be broken. According to BiotechNow, the offer prices are 4% above expectations! In addition, biotechs are going public with little more than a wing and a prayer (pre-clinical or Phase 1 data only). Really? What this means is that the drug or technology looks good in mice, rats, or dogs, etc, but there is no smidgen of evidence that it will work in humans. That's what is called an appitite for RISK!
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