Posts Tagged ‘PFG Best research’

2009 REVIEW & 2010 PREVIEW

2009 REVIEW & 2010 PREVIEW

Man in car holding road map, smiling, portrait, close-up

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

The following is the excellent 2009 review and 2010 preview by PFG Best:

As we approach year-end, I thought it would be helpful to share a quick recap of 2009 and an outlook for 2010.  Feel free to call or email me with any questions: Eaven Horter (ehorter@pfgbest.com).

It’s my belief the main market drivers of 2009 were interest rates and risk aversion.  Let’s first begin with the Federal Funds rate.  The last elongated period of sub-2% interest rates lasted 3 years – from December 2001 to November 2004.  This time period was post-9/11, when our country rebuilt itself in many ways, where low interest rates led to several “asset bubbles” that did indeed end up popping – easy credit and real estate made for a dangerous duo.  We are currently just over a year with the Federal Funds rate under 2%, which dropped below the 2% level in October 2008.  The current rate was set just a year ago – a historical low of 0% to 0.25%.  However, the US economy and global economies are MUCH worse off now then post-9/11.  With this in mind, an easy case can be made that Bernanke’s continued message of an “extended period” of low interest rates is truly not just rhetoric.

An interesting consideration for this current recession and interest rate scenario is how much more interconnected the world economies are now versus earlier in this decade.  What were emerging economies eight years ago are now developing nations, which makes for less of a reliance on larger countries, such as the United States.  An example of this is how the world has moved from a G7/G8 focus to a G20 circle, bringing important players into the global economic decision making process.  With this interconnectedness, especially in relation to the United States, we saw a focus on commentary and policy from Foreign Central Banks and the large effects these had on global markets – just look to interest rate increases in Australia and how that affected the value of the USD and the AUD.

Luckily, some of us have learned from our histories and we’ve now begun to see lawmakers take proactive measures in respect to asset bubbles.  An example would be the


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Zero Hedge

Trump Meets Pope - Nothing Crazy Happens

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

President Trump and The Pope came face to face after the mainstream media had promoted this clash of the titans as likely to end in fireworks as the two world 'leaders' sparred over border walls, socialism, immigration, global terror, and whatever else the media thinks will divide the world most effectively.

Sadly for the media, nothing crazy happened...

Honor of a lifetime to meet His Holiness Pope Francis. I leave the Vatican more determined than ever to pursue PEACE in our world. pic.twitter.com/JzJDy7pllI

— Donald J. Trump (...



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ValueWalk

Manchester Bombing Could Expand Use of GPS Ankle Trackers

By JOHN F. BANZHAF. Originally published at ValueWalk.

In the wake of the Manchester bombing, Britain and other European countries may want to follow Germany’s lead to begin using GPS ankle tracking device as the only cost-effective means to keep track of the thousands of persons on watch lists or otherwise suspected of potential terrorist activities, says public interest law professor John Banzhaf.

The Evening Standard reported that Salman Abedi, the Manchester bomber “was known to security services” but was not under surveillance or otherwise being investigated because “they did not believe he posed an immediate threat,” and keeping track of the thousands of persons under suspicion at any time to prevent another Manchester bombing style attack is prohibitively expensive.

...



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Phil's Favorites

Predictions - A Fool's Errand

 

Predictions – A Fool’s Errand

Courtesy of Wade Slome, Investing Caffeine

Making bold predictions is a fool’s errand. I think Yogi Berra summed it up best when he spoke about the challenges of making predictions:

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

While making predictions might seem like a pleasurable endeavor, the reality is nobody has been able to consistently predict the future (remember the 2012 Mayan Doomsday?), besides perhaps palm readers and ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Trump budget to increase growth by boosting investment, labor force: Mnuchin (Reuters)

The Trump administration believes its budget plan will boost economic growth by fostering capital investment and creating jobs for workers who gave up their job hunts during tough times, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday.

With Earnings Season Over, the Insecurity Can Begin for S&P 500 Bulls (Bloomberg)

The issue is earnings season, which for the past four years has occasioned an astonishing amount of the upside in the American...



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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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Chart School

Gains Push Into Breakdown Gap

Courtesy of Declan.

While today's gains were modest they were significant in generating clean pushes inside last week's breakdown gaps. This brings indices back to challenge 'bull traps'

The S&P experienced lighter volume trading as On-Balance-Volume moved to a 'buy' trigger. Today's action opens up for a challenge of 2,405, although shorts may see this as opportunity to go aggressive with a tight stop once markets makes all-time highs.


The Nasdaq is also approaching its 'bull trap'. On-Balance-Volume holds to its ac...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Soars Above $2000 For First Time Ever

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is now up over 100% in 2017, amid global political uncertainty and increased interest in Asia, suddenly spiking above $2000 this afternoon for the first time ever...

That is a year-over-year gain of more than 350%. The move comes, as CoinDesk notes, amid a broader boost in the cryptocurrency market, which broke the $60bn barrier today. The increase has taken place amid strong surges from Ripple's XRP, which seeks to lower costs in enterprise cross-border payments, and ethereum's ether token, a cryptographic asse...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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FeedTheBull - Top Stock market and Finance Sites



About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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