Posts Tagged ‘PSQ’

Thrill-Ride Thursday: Jobs, What Jobs?

Yesterday was very hard for us.

Our theoretically conservative $100,000 Virtual Portfolio dropped 6% in one day as we had a farily bearish position into options expiration that I stubbornly refused to adjust this week.  Surely, I thought, after running up 250 Dow points from Thursday, 10,000 would act as some kind of resistance?  We're also up a neat 500 points for the month of October so that's our 5% rule and to not get a 1% pullback, even in the most bullish of markets, is very rare indeed

So we stayed bearish yesterday and got crushed by the AMZN $90 calls we sold as well as UYG calls we sold and our PSQ calls we bought for protection got slaughtered as the Nasdaq flew up not 5% but 5.5% for the month and up 6.2% from it's October 2nd low.  While we are disappointed, we're not terribly concerned as we're only going to roll the calls to November anyway and I did promise the members that, if we hold our breakout levels for 2 closes, then I'll be shifting more bullish.  I've been trying to identify more bullish positions this week but our mix has still tended bearish as I'm just having so much trouble buying into this rally. 

In yesterday's Member Chat, my comments on the current situation was:

I do wish we were more bullish, this is a very smart group of people and we’re pretty bearish but so is the general investing public or there’d be volume to this rally.  I have a hard time ignoring the fact that 600,000 more people lost their jobs this week and, even if it’s "only" 500,000, I still think that’s not really a sign of a healty economy.  I think the REITs are off in fantasy land and I think so is the government, who cannot keep borrowing money at these low rates.  The dollar has dropped 25% of it’s value since March so the market is only 25% ahead of the currency fall which means a flight back to the dollar, which could happen very suddenly if an EU nation like Spain collapses, could send our market down as fast a 9/11. 

That being said, we have no choice but to follow the technicals and now that we can look at nice, easy support levels like Dow 10,000,


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$100,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 5

Well this has been annoying

After 30 days of trading our current virtual portfolio value is just $100,454.39 as we took quite a setback when we sold naked calls ahead of the move up.  Fortunately, we didn't lose our cool and rode it out.  In fact, we only made one trade in the past two weeks so there hasn't been much to report and there still isn't but the end of our first month is a good time for an update.  Of course, we do have a lot of outstanding October Premium to collect so the next two weeks are when we make our real money

We still have $92,315 in cash so plenty of buying power should we choose to deploy it but we are sticking with our plan of scaling into the postions we have, which means we're letting them run out through October 16th expirations and we'll see if we finally get the bargains we've been waiting for to set up our longer term bull plays.  For now, in this VERY conservative, low-touch virtual portfolio, we've been following Warren Buffett's Investing Rule #1:  Don't lose money!

Description Price Paid Last Price Qty Market Value Margin Req. Profit Loss %
AIG CALL 40 Oct 09 $6.30 $5.50 -1 $550.00 $1,196.20 $80.00 12.70%
On target with AIG at $43.40, this is typical of our outstanding sales with the VIX so high – we just have to wait.
AMZN CALL 90 Oct 09 $3.60 $2.80 -10 $2,800.00 $16,127.50 $800.00 22.22%
We wouldn't do this play if we needed the margin but a nice $2,800 to collect if AMZN stays below $90
BAC CALL 10 Jan 11 $8.60


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$101,674 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 3

Slow and steady wins the race! 

We had a big run and capped our gains a little early for the week by doubling up on our PSQ (short Nasdaq) calls on Thursday's mad run.  This did the job of locking in our profits but that hedge is now making up $450 of losses, which is 1/3 of all our losses for the month.  Still we managed to gain $396 for the week with still just $28,537 in positions so that's another 1% for the week, a pretty good clip

I am happy to say that our $100K Virtual Portfolio is now live and available on WallStreetSurvivor.com at:

 
 
We're actually well ahead of our cash goal as we also have $86,101 in cash along with our $28,537 in positions with $13,768 in margin devoted to some of the longer hedges we've sold.  That leaves us with $147,935 in margin buying power and we're going to use it to do a few "stupid option tricks" into expirations that should pick us up a little extra cash over the next 5 days and Wednesday or Friday we must expect to make our rolling moves for the current month and I'll be sending out Alerts to Members later in the week.  For now, we are very happy with all of our current positions as we have 16 winners and just 7 losers – that's very good for a well-hedged virtual portfolio
 
There are only 6 September contracts for us to worry about and Wednesday would be the earliest day we need to make adjustments on those so we'll concentrate today on things we can make money on tomorrow.  The easiest was to start is to look at some stocks we may want to own for October and take a stab at selling some naked puts on them as we won't be too upset if they get put to us or we'll be happy to pocket the cash if they aren't.  We already sold the MHP October puts from last week's Watch List but we haven't filled the others.  As with those plays, we're not interested


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$100,000 Virtual Portfolio Update – Week 1

It's been a crazy first week but we're up a little already.

So far, only 16 of the 26 contracts we wanted have been filled and we've had some difficulty due to Wall Street Survivor not allowing us to enter spreads, which led us to getting fairly random fills.  Also, I apologize for the lack of access but I've been assured those issues will be resolved next week.  For that reason, I have not deviated from the Alert I sent out on Monday and all those unfilled bids remain in place but let's use this time to review where we are now as far as what's open and what's left to fill.

As we've collected plenty of money already we are achieving our primary goal so this is not about making drastic changes but let's analyse each play and see what has been filled and what needs to be filled next and whether or not we feel we can hit that target next week (action items are highlighted in red):

AIG:  2011 $30 calls filled at $13.45 (now $26.50), 2011 $30 puts filled at $9.05 (now $9) and Sept $33 calls sold for $4.70 (now $17.95). 

It stinks that we couldn't fill the $33 puts as that would have given us a big gain. In chat we discussed taking them out anyway and leaving the long calls as is, expecting a pullback.  No matter what happens, we have an expectation of rolling this caller to October puts and calls and those strikes pay more than $20 so this is a non-issue at the moment and we successfully collected $470.

We do want to roll the 2011 $30 put to the 2011 $55 puts, now $24.88 for $16.  That puts us into a guaranteed $25 spread for $16, a good trade-off

BAC: 5 Sept $17 puts were sold for .51 (now .39) and 5 2011 $20 puts were bought for $5.45 (now $5.55).

We didn't fill the call side of this spread, which was buying 5 2011 $10 calls for $8.60 (now $9.10) and selling 5 Sept $17 calls for $1.60 (now $1.38).  We're looking for the banks to sell off but, if we do trigger the short sale on the upside, we will need to take the cover leap.  Collected $255.


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Phil's Favorites

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oversold: Oil traders punish OPEC for promising too much (Reuters)

VIENNA As OPEC's latest meeting wrapped up in Vienna on Thursday night, ministers congratulated each other on its rare spirit of amity and consensus. The talks were, without a doubt, a success.

Here’s what Trump’s head of the FDA wants to do about high drug prices (Business Insider)

Food and Drug Administration commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb has a plan to tackle high drug prices. 

"Simply put, too many patients are priced out of the medicines they need," Gottli...



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ValueWalk

Student debt rose to a record $1.44T in March, ~$33K per borrower, over double the level in 08

By The Conversation. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Poor and middle-income families need a better way than 529s to save for college Rilsonav / Pixabay

Robert H. Scott III, Monmouth University and Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

A college education is increasingly necessary for su...



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Zero Hedge

Believing The Russian "Hacking" Claim

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Swanson via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Government lies are common when seducing a population to support a war, but the Russian “hacking” claims are unusual in that U.S. officials supply no evidence while the “fact” is just assumed,

When the U.S. public was told that Spain had blown up the Maine, or Vietnam h...



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Digital Currencies

Visualizing The Expanding Universe Of Cryptocurrencies

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency, and its meteoric rise has made it a mainstay of conversation for investors, media, and technologists alike.

In fact, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins details, the innovation of the blockchain is changing entire markets, while causing ripples with central banks and the financial industry. At time of publication, the bitcoin price now hovers near US$2,200, a massive increase from this time last year.

But the true impact of Bitcoin is actually far more reaching than this – it’s a...



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Market News

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Hedge Fund Billionaire Paul Singer: If Trump Agenda Fails, a Recession Could Follow (Fortune)

Market watchers who thought the stock market would drop if Donald Trump were elected were burned following his win: markets rose to new highs instead.

U.S. inflation path since 2012 is worrisome, policymaker says (Reuters)

The current level of U.S. prices is noticeably lower than what it would be if the Federal Reserve had delivered on its 2-percent inflation target, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, calling the trend "worrisome."

...



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Chart School

S&P Breakout on Higher Volume Accumulation

Courtesy of Declan.

While I expected the Dow Jones to be the breakout flyer, instead it was the S&P which led the charge on higher volume accumulation.  Technicals are all in the green with a return of the MACD trigger 'buy'.



The Dow did manage to break past 21,000 with a MACD trigger 'buy' but it's still contained by all-time high resistance at 21,200. The index is still well positioned for a larger breakout, but this is the sixth day of consecutive gains for the index so some pullback can be expe...

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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

·       How 2017 Will Affect Oil, the US Dollar and the European Union

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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