Posts Tagged ‘Pub Power’

Pub Power Equity Signal Turns Negative

Pub Power Equity Signal Turns Negative

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

indoors shot of a table laid out in a restaurant

Time to revisit a catchy, data-mined, equity buy signal (with a decent explanation) that was first detailed at EconomPic back in September… the "Pub Power" equity buy signal.

What is the Pub Power signal? As detailed back then:

It is the relative strength of ‘food establishment and drinking places’ sales vs. grocery sales (as expressed in year over year terms). The relevance? Well, the data seems to suggest that "Pub Power" = Strength in the Dow, one year forward.

The thought was that the relative strength (i.e. demand) of restaurants relative to cooking at home shows the following characteristics:

  • Consumer confidence
  • Exuberance
  • Spending power
  • Wealth

Or something like that…

On the other hand, when times are tough, individuals are more likely to eat at home, causing year over year sales at pubs to decline relative to grocery stores. At the time the signal pointed to a further run in the Dow and here we are four months and 10% later.

So lets take a look at what the signal is telling us now…

Beware all of you equity investors out there… the Pub Power signal has turned negative.

Why does this matter?

It probably doesn’t, but from December 1993 through December 2008 (the last period in which we have one year forward data on the Dow) the Dow has returned an average of -9.8% one year forward when the "Pub Power" was negative and 10.8% when the signal was positive.

Source: Census

 


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Invest or Die

 

Invest or Die

Courtesy of Wade W. Slome, Investing Caffeine

Seventy-six million Baby Boomers are earning near 0% (or negative rates) and aren’t getting any younger in the process, which is forcing them and others to decide…invest or die. The risk of outliving your savings is becoming a larger reality these days. Demographics and economics are dictating that our aging population is living longer and earning less due to generationally low interest rates.

Richard Fisher, the former Dallas Federal Reserve president, understands these looming dynamics. Fisher has identified how low-interest rates are increasing investor discontent by pushing consumers to save more in order to meet retirement ...



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Zero Hedge

Someone Has Quietly Put On "The Trump Hedge"

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

As a very observant Charlie McElligott of RBC points out, lost in a sleepy Friday morning session, there was a sneaky trade in November Fed Funds Futs (FFX), where somebody bot 9962 Calls in what was essentially a ‘Trump Hedge’ lotto-ticket that pays in the event that the FOMC were to LOWER the Fed Funds rate…thus, quite notable. 

More polling data out over the weekend shows Trump and HRC in a “dead heat” (per left-leaning WaPo), with Trump taking a lead on Clinton in the key state of Colorado, while closing his gap in Pennsylvania to just 1ppt as well. 

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ValueWalk

10 Awesome And Intelligent Things You Can Do Tonight Instead Of Watching The Debate

By The Foundation for Economic Education. Originally published at ValueWalk.

10 Awesome And Intelligent Things You Can Do Tonight Instead Of Watching The Debate

You could watch the debate tonight, I suppose. If you don’t, a lot of people will accuse you of being an uninformed voter, an irresponsible citizen, and generally a bad person.

Now, I’m always ready and willing to be surprised, but I’d take out a fairly large bet against anything that happens during tonight’s 90 minute shared Trump and Clinton press conference being particularly informative, responsible, or moral. Indeed, you’d probably be spending your time better if you just make peanut butter and jelly sandwiches and dance to Beyonce in your kitchen.

But a lot of people I know are putting enormous moral weight on whether one chooses to watch the debate...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Contagion Risks Rise as China Banks Fund Each Others’ Loans (Bloomberg)

China’s smaller banks have never been more reliant on each other for funding, prompting rating companies to warn of contagion risks in any crisis.

Profit Slump for S&P 500 Heads for a Sixth Straight Quarter (The Wall Street Journal)

The third quarter was supposed to be when earnings growth returned to U.S. companies. Not anymore.

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Leading indicator testing key breakout level

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

The German Stock Market has been a quality leader in both directions the past few years. Below looks at why one might want to keep a “close eye” on this key global stock index, to see if it can hop over a important breakout level.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Similar to the S&P 500 and many stock indices in the states, the DAX index remains inside of a uniform rising 6-year channel, since the 2009 lows.

Th...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 26th, 2016

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Chart School

Weekly Market Recap Sep 25, 2016

Courtesy of Blain.

The week that was…

It was all about the Federal Reserve as we noted it would be.  In last week’s recap we said:

From this perch there has been and continues to be zero expectation for a September rate hike as the Fed doesn’t want to be seen as “political” and trying to move the market ahead of November, but the Fed is at least trying to throw some bones out there to make the market a bit less complacent.

…and:

All eyes on the Federal Reserve with a meeting Tue/Wed and a press conference by Yellen Wednesday.   Since we expect nothing to happen Wednesday in terms of raising rates maybe the market will be in “relief” mode.  Unless there is strong language from Yellen hinting at a December rate hike....



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Members' Corner

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

 

Market Liquidity and Macroeconomic Bullshit

Courtesy of The Nattering Naybob

STJL - "Apparently macroeconomics is all bullshit – ROFL! Paging Naybob now… Famous Economist Paul Romer Says Macroeconomics Is All Bullshit."

The Nattering One muses... Macroeconomics as practiced by academics and those in charge is pure voodoo. Better to chant over goat blood, bird feathers and scattered entrails...

As for reality, overnight CNH HIBOR (...



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Mapping The Market

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

Via Jean-Luc:

"When you let the free market take over, the little people get screwed and bankers get rich. Chile tried privatizing retirement plans and surprise, surprise, fund manager ate the profits… Pretty sure the results would be the same here..."  ~ Jean-Luc

Here's a Cautionary Tale of Pension Privatization From Chile

By KEVIN DRUM, Mother Jones

Among free-market fans, Chile's privatized pension plan has long been held up as a model for us to follow. The problem, as the Financial Times notes today, is ...



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Digital Currencies

Gold, Silver and Blockchain - Fintech Solutions To Negative Rates, Bail-ins, Currency Debasement and Cashless

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

By Jan Skoyles

I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.

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Biotech

Epizyme - A Waiting Game

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer.  One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."

Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.  

Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.'  Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color).  Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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