Posts Tagged ‘Rail Traffic’

US Rail Traffic “Statistical Recovery”

US Rail Traffic "Statistical Recovery"

Courtesy of Mish

US Rail traffic is improving on a year over year basis, but looks are deceiving as the comparison is against very feeble 2009 traffic. Let’s take a look at Railfax Data through April 24, 2010.

Total US Rail Traffic

The table shows the 4 week rolling average of auto traffic is up 32% from a year ago. However, auto traffic is still down 31.8% compared to 2008.

The same holds true for metals, up a whopping 71% from a year ago, yet down 18.5% from two years ago.

13 Week Rolling Averages – Year Over Year Comparisons

Please refer to the article for still more charts.

Traffic is up, but only based on anemic comparisons. This is what’s known as a statistical recovery. By the way, it took trillions of dollars of global stimulus to generate that "recovery". Guess what happens when the stimulus stops?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

 


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Interview with Rick Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute

Interview with Rick Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute

 

By Ilene

Introduction: Richard Davis is President of the Consumer Metrics Institute (CMI). At the Institute, Rick measures real-time consumer transactions as an objective indicator of consumer demand and the associated health of the US economy. In this interview, we explore the history behind the government-published numbers and the reasons prompting Rick to devise better ways to measure the state of the economy.

History

Ilene: Rick, what got you interested in measuring economic numbers?

Rick: I first became frustrated with the current state of economic data after learning about the history of the collection process and the government’s continued reliance on 70 year old concepts. The government began collecting economic data during Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s (FDR) second term, around 1937. There was concern that the recovery from the 1937-1938 recession (i.e., a recession nested within the Great Depression) was stalling. The economy had been improving significantly from early 1933 through 1936 before the wheels came off the recovery in mid-1937.  FDR’s administration realized it did not have adequate data to monitor the economy and the administration asked the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to look into this problem. Wesley Clair Mitchell set out to find data that would help FDR’s administration address its concerns about the U.S. economy.

Wesley Clair Mitchell was a once-in-a-generation economic genius when it came to data collection. He collected over 500 interesting data sets measuring items such as sales, employment, railcar loadings--items that would allow him to constantly monitor the health of the economy. Most of these things are still measured, and the numbers have evolved into the core reports put out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

What frustrated me was that the data sets measured by Dr. Mitchell were developed in the 1930s and designed to capture those things that were important to the 1930s economy. They are not geared for today’s economy. Things that mattered in the mid-20th century simply cannot completely describe what is happening in the 2010 economy.

For instance, to find out what was happening in the music industry in 1950, someone could have gone to a neighborhood music store, counted the Doris Day 45’s in the retail bins…
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RAIL TRAFFIC REMAINS IN RECESSION

RAIL TRAFFIC REMAINS IN RECESSION

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Train departs station in Beijing

The latest rail freight data is not quick to validate Warren Buffett’s “all in” wager on the U.S. economy.  The latest data shows another steep annual year over year decline despite vastly improving comps (the economy was spiraling to its end at this time last year if you recall).  We should be seeing positive year over year improvements in this data based on the optimism regarding the recovery, however, the data continues to come in down double digits.   Carloads were down 13.7% while intermodal traffic was down 15.5%.

Albert Edwards is quick to note that the seasonally adjusted data is showing signs of a stall (thanks to ZH):

“We all know that Warren Buffet is not one of those. The investment guru’s foray into railroads this week has attracted much attention. The FT’s Lex column called it “one almighty bet on the US economic recovery.” Funnily enough I was looking at railroad traffic earlier in the week. It was notable, I thought, that on a seasonally adjusted basis, there is very clear evidence that the cycle is stalling out.”

The stock market is cheering another day of “better than expected” data, but at some point we have to ask ourselves just how strong is the real economy when jobless claims are consistently at half a million and the transport sector continues to show very steep declines?

The AAR reports:

WASHINGTON, D.C., Nov. 5, 2009 — The Association of American Railroads today said that freight rail traffic remains down for the week ended Oct. 31, 2009. U.S. railroads reported originating 275,439 carloads for the week, down 13.7 percent compared with the same week in 2008 and down 18.2 percent from 2007. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR will be reporting 2009 weekly rail traffic with year over comparisons for both 2008 and 2007 going forward.

In the West, carloads were down 14.3 percent compared with the same week last year, and 19.1 percent compared with 2007. In the East, carloads were down 12.9 percent compared with 2008, and 8.7 percent compared with the same week in 2007.

Intermodal traffic totaled 203,860


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Trucks Sit Idle; Rail Traffic Horrific

Courtesy of Mish

Trucks Sit Idle; Rail Traffic Horrific

The weekly Railfax Rail Carloading Report still looks grim. Here are a couple of charts.

Total US Rail Traffic

click on chart for sharper image

Total Industry Charts (US, Canada and Mexico)
Year over Year Percent Change – 13 Week Rolling Averages

click on chart for sharper image

13-week moving averages are still moving lower, with no apparent end in sight. The first chart shows the one relatively bright spot is coal. I hear the same message about coal from trucker friends.

Idle Trucks

"TF" writes:

Mish,

I travel a number of routes regularly with my job and one site I pass amazes me. It is a local trucking company property. In early summer 2008 there were maybe 100 total trucks and trailers. Today, there is not much room left in a 12 acre area with 100s for trucks and trailers can not guess the number of trailers stacked 3 to 4 high.
I had heard through a trailer dealer that this trucking company solely purchased equipment to move wind energy projects for a number of years and this year canceled all equipment orders.

I also pass by a switchyard for a BNSF line between Seattle and Chicago once a month. The switchyard is a transfer point for the main line to a local. Freight would wait until there was an opening on the local line or an available engine. Prior to July/August 2008 the yard would have various car carriers, containers and other freight along side the coal cars destined for the power plants. Today only the coal cars are parked there. There is no waiting, except for coal.

TF

Competition Intense

FleetOwner is reporting Truck Freight Down Until 2010.

Truckers larger and small will need to keep their belts tightened into the early part of next year before they can expect to see freight volumes start increasing, according to the latest industry analysis compiled by FTR Associates.

In a conference call with reporters last week, FTR analysts noted that for freight to start recovering, it must "reach a bottom first" and they predicted the bottom will be reached in the third to fourth quarter of this year. That will lead to a recovery in freight volume to begin sometime in the first quarter of 2010.

"I


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Zero Hedge

Watch These Geopolitical Flashpoints Carefully

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

Anyone who has been involved in alternative geopolitical and economic analysis for a decent length of time understands that the establishment power structure thrives according to its ability to either exploit natural crises, or to engineer fabricated crises.

This is not that hard to comprehend, but for s...



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Financial Markets and Economy

How a ‘Low Volatility’ Stock Plunged 85% in an Hour (The Wall Street Journal)

Reading the label isn’t enough for picking funds. You may need to go into the ingredients list, too.

Take a look at funds that track the MSCI Minimum Volatility Emerging Markets Index.

North Dakota Oil Spills 3 Times Larger Than First Estimated (Associated Press)

A December oil pipeline spill ...



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Market News

News You Can Use From Phil's Stock World

 

Financial Markets and Economy

How a ‘Low Volatility’ Stock Plunged 85% in an Hour (The Wall Street Journal)

Reading the label isn’t enough for picking funds. You may need to go into the ingredients list, too.

Take a look at funds that track the MSCI Minimum Volatility Emerging Markets Index.

North Dakota Oil Spills 3 Times Larger Than First Estimated (Associated Press)

A December oil pipeline spill ...



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ValueWalk

Top 5 Myths About Medicare

By VW Staff. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Google Trends data shows Health Care queries in the US is a reaching an all-time high in search engines (peaking at over 100k search volume). As health care changes are currently being discussed by lawmakers, Medicare coverage searches having increased over 250% within the last 7 days. Medicare Part B, which charges beneficiaries’ premium based on their income, has jumped the top search term in Google for Medicare related queries.

United Medicare Advisors has identified the The 5 Medicare Myths that Cause Confusion Among Seniors...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Fund flows of this size could mark a top, says Joe Friday

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

A year ago flows into ETFs were extremely low, actually the lowest in years, as many stock market indices were testing rising support off the 2009 lows. The crowd wasn’t adding money to ETFs as lows were taking place. In hindsight, this was a mistake by the majority. Below I look at ETF flows over the past few years with an inset chart of the S&P 500.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

Nearly three months into this year, fund flows have surpassed mone...



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Chart School

Indecision Strikes

Courtesy of Declan.

It was no real surprise to see indices slow down in their recovery. Across the board doji mark a balance between buyers and sellers. The one index which bucked the trend a little was the Russell 2000. It staged a modest recovery which brought it back to former support turned resistance. However, technicals remain firmly bearish, and will stay this way even if there are additional gains.

The S&P closed on light volume with a doji below resistance. The narrow intraday trading range offers a low risk opportunity with a break and ...

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Members' Corner

Natterings

Check out some new posts from our friend The Nattering Naybob. 

The Big Lebowski Sequel?

Taking a "resp-shit" or "potty break" from "in the Toilet Thursday" or "Thursday's in the Loo"... One of our favorite scenes from the 1998 cult classic The Big Lebowski, the ash can scene where Walter Subchak (John Goodman) eulogizes the departed Donnie (Steve Buscemi) with Jeffrey Lebowski (Jeff Bridges) looking on.

Keep reading: ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 20th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Digital Currencies

Bitcoin Tumbles Below Gold As China Tightens Regulations

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Having rebounded rapidly from the ETF-decision disappointment, Bitcoin suffered another major setback overnight as Chinese regulators are circulating new guidelines that, if enacted, would require exchanges to verify the identity of clients and adhere to banking regulations.

A New York startup called Chainalysis estimated that roughly $2 billion of bitcoin moved out of China in 2016.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the move to regulate bitcoin exchanges brings assurance that Chinese authorities will tolerate some level of trading, after months of uncertainty. A draft of the guidelines also indicates th...



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Mapping The Market

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

Courtesy of Jean Luc

I am trying to remember who on this board said that people wanted to Trump because they want their freedom back. Well….

Congress begins rolling back Obama's broadband privacy rules

By Daniel Cooper, Endgadget

ISPs will soon be able to sell your most private data without your consent.

As expected, Republicans in Congress have begun the process of rolling back the FCC's broadband privacy rules which prevent excessive surveillance. Arizona Republican Jeff Flake introduced a resolution to scrub the rules, using Congress' powers to invalidate recently-approved federal regulations. Reuters reports that the move has broad support, with 34 other names throwing their weight behind the res...



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Promotions

Free eBook - "My Top Strategies for 2017"

 

 

Here's a free ebook for you to check out! 

Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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Biotech

The Medicines Company: Insider Buying

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

I'm seeing huge insider buying in the biotech company The Medicines Company (MDCO). The price has already moved up around 7%, but these buys are significant, in the millions of dollars range. ~ Ilene

 

 

 

Insider transaction table and buying vs. selling graphic above from insidercow.com.

Chart below from Yahoo.com

...

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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