Using the latest in IP address geo-detection and profiling technology we’re delighted to bring you your personalized horoscope:
You have a great need for other people to like and admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. Your sexual adjustment has presented problems for you. Disciplined and self-controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others’ statements without satisfactory proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic. Security is one of your major goals in life.
Trick or treat?
In the Second World War many remote Pacific islands found themselves occupied by warring forces. This often led to an unexpected windfall for the primitive islanders as the troops were supplied from the air with unimaginable luxuries like corned beef, custard powder and anti-aircraft guns. When the war ended and the troops went home the planes stopped coming so, naturally, the islanders hatched a cunning plan to make them come back again.
They created the rudiments of the apparatus that the ground crew had used – paddles to welcome the aircraft, fake headsets for the radio operator, fake landing lights – and engaged in the same strange ritual ceremonies, behaviour generally known as a cargo cult. Yet no matter how they adjusted the ceremony they couldn’t get it quite right and the planes never came back. It would be crass simplicity to suggest that the same kind of magical thinking pervades the world of investment. Only it does, of course.
Here’s some weekend reading in advance. Consider throwing away economic models based on the misconception that people behave rationally and start anew with the premise that we are like mindless bacteria. – Ilene
Old-time economics saw investors as rational individuals, all behaving autonomously in a logical fashion, rather like Mr. Spock umbilically attached to Deep Thought. Today not even economists really believe that this is how people actually operate, but figuring out something better is a not insignificant task. Psychologists, however, have long known that what happens in the gaps between people is as important as what happens in the gaps between their ears – so is there something going on in the interactions between investors, which causes market instability?
One possible answer comes from the study of bacteria. Just as we might have suspected all along, stockmarket investor behaviour can be modelled by examining the way a bunch of brainless, single celled and barely animate creatures interested only in food and reproduction disport themselves on a Petri plate. Sometimes analogies are just too sweet.
The critical thing about any economic model is that it arrives at results that look like what we actually see in markets. Mostly the jargon fixated commentators who dominate the media are happy to talk in terms of business cycles when, in reality, the only cycles seen in most investing circles are the ones used by the boys and girls delivering lunchboxes. What we actually get, if we look at stockmarkets and stock prices, is something that looks like the readout we see from a seismograph when an earthquake occurs.
If we start by making a few assumptions about what investors actually do in real life – like, for instance, that they don’t behave rationally and that they tend to copy successful behaviour from people they’re closely connected to – we can rapidly create a model that produces outputs that look very different from those generated by models of people who behave independently and rationally. In fact the output of these models looks a lot like the readout we see from a seismograph when an earthquake occurs.
So it seems that the interactions between investors and how these interactions affect their willingness or otherwise to invest is the critical thing in these models.…
Whether you think there has been a housing “recovery” or not is a matter of perspective. Sales are indeed up 117% since the 2010 low, but that low was literally the worst level in the history of this data (since 1963) as a percentage of population growth. It was the Great Depression of Housing, the only possible result of the greatest housing bubble since the 1920s, if not in history. While sales have rebounded since that low, the current sales rate has barely recovered to the levels seen at the recession lows of 1991 and 1982. This rebound is little more than a dead cat bounce after 6 years of recovery, and now it may be faltering.
I asked you in a previous blog just how rational YOU are, to follow in this post we’ll instead focus on OUR aggregate rationality, i.e. the aggregate rationality of many individuals, or to word it easier; the market. You’ll discover how we are much smarter together rather than alone.
And even though I believe that is true, I will let you know why I don’t think that is the case for stock markets, and why the market is more like a beauty contest.
The Rational Market
Assuming the stock market participants consist of rational investors, it’s fair to assume the market should be rational...
Crowds gathered after an unarmed black man who was "behaving erratically" died after being shot by a police officer in El Cajon in southern California on Tuesday, the local police department said, appealing for calm.
Officers responded to an erratic subject that ended with an officer involved shooting. We will post updates here as they are available.
The surprise vote in favor of the U.K. leaving the European Union on June 23 unleashed shockwaves across the global economy, wiping trillions off the value of global assets. The referendum reshaped the British political landscape, and genera...
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"When you let the free market take over, the little people get screwed and bankers get rich. Chile tried privatizing retirement plans and surprise, surprise, fund manager ate the profits… Pretty sure the results would be the same here..." ~ Jean-Luc
I was so pleased yesterday by the announcement that I have joined the Research team at GoldCore as it meant that I could finally start talking about it and was back in a role that lets me indulge in my passion by researching and geeking out on all things gold, silver and money.
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Epizyme was founded in 2007, and trying to create drugs to treat patient's cancer by focusing on genetically-linked differences between normal and cancer cells. Cancer areas of focus include leukemia, Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and breast cancer. One of the Epizme cofounders, H. Robert Horvitz, won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2002 for "discoveries concerning genetic regulation of organ development and programmed cell death."
Before discussing the drug targets of Epizyme, understanding epigenetics is crucial to comprehend the company's goals.
Genetic components are the DNA sequences that are 'inherited.' Some of these genes are stronger than others in their expression (e.g., eye color). Yet, some genes turn on or off due to external factors (environmental), and it is und...
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