Posts Tagged ‘Raymond James’

MARKETS RARELY BOTTOM ON A FRIDAY

MARKETS RARELY BOTTOM ON A FRIDAY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Old mare

Jeff Saut at Raymond James, entered the year very cautious and continues to think we are in the middle range of a selling stampede. In addition he points to the interesting fact that markets rarely bottom on a Friday.  Many pundits have pointed to the action in Friday’s market as being very similar to other large volume trend reversals off of a panic bottom.  Saut is not so convinced:

“Recall that “selling stampedes” tend to last 17 – 25 sessions, with only one- to three-session counter-trend rallies, before they exhaust themselves on the downside.  Therefore, we “put blinders on” to last Friday’s late-day upside reversal, consistent with our mantra of “never on a Friday.” That mantra was learned from numerous Friday “head fakes” implying that markets rarely bottom on a Friday once they are into a downtrend. Rather, participants tend to go home over the weekend, brood about their losses, and show up the following week in “sell mode.” So, while the markets may attempt to build on Friday’s late reversal, we have little confidence that any rally will last more than one to three sessions since today is only session 14 from the trading top of January 19th.”

Saut is also suspect of the new secular bull market chatter:

“we remain suspect this is the first leg of a new secular bull market. Rather, we think it is just another “bull move” within the context of the range-bound stock market we have been mired in for the last 10 years. Another driver of Friday’s reversal could have been the “break” below 10,000 on the DJIA, which is also a psychological support level that should be respected.”

Bear and bull sculptures outside the Frankfurt stock exchange

Backing up his continued near-term bearish thesis is action in the metals.  Saut made a prescient call in mid January when he referred to the copper markets as being overheated and warranting some caution in equity markets:

“Then there is ‘Dr. Copper,’ the metal with a Ph.D. in economics, which recently recorded a 12-month rolling rate of return in excess of 150%. Historically such a ‘copper cropper’ has marked a ‘trading top’ in copper and telegraphed caution


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CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS – THE BEAR ISN’T HERE YET

CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS – THE BEAR ISN’T HERE YET

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Polar bear

Strategists at Credit Suisse entered 2010 with a very cautious tone and an outlook similar to our own – 2010 would be a year of halves.  The first half would be a continuation of the trends that helped the market surge in 2009 while headwinds would build near H2 2010 and result in market declines.   The recent downturn in stocks hasn’t changed their outlook and they view the sell-off as a buying opportunity (see JP Morgan’s similar outlook here as well as Raymond James’ outlook here).

The team’s tactical indicators are mildly bullish at current levels and quickly approaching levels that were buys in 2009:

Our tacticals are mildly supportive of equities:

Interestingly, the % of nyse stocks trading above their 10-week MA (currently at 32%) is around similar levels where market bottomed during recent corrections (end of Oct it troughed at 30%, in early July 09 at 37%). Normally a buy signal is when this indicator falls below 20% but perhaps most of the correction has already occurred??

CS1 CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS   THE BEAR ISNT HERE YET

Sentiment data also supports their bullish thesis as the majority of investors remain net bearish:

CS2 CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS   THE BEAR ISNT HERE YET

Like us, Credit Suisse sees continuing strong trends in the earnings picture which makes it very difficult to formulate a thesis for a substantial decline in stocks.  Credit Suisse notes the very strong trend in earnings expectations, the high level of “better than expected” earnings and the uptrend in the upgrade cycle.  Bespoke recently noted the outperformance on Monday’s over the last few months.  This has been largely due to the upgrade cycle.  Yesterday alone, there were 41 upgrades of S&P 500 firms versus 13 downgrades according to Briefing.com.  One of the primary reasons we focus a great deal of our research at TPC on the earnings cycle is due to the high influence analysts have on the market.  According to Credit Suisse, analysts on average, upgrade stocks for 11 months prior to the beginning of a new uptrend in the bull market cycle.  This means we could see a strong continued trend in upgrades until Q2 of 2010 – roughly around the same time where we believe earnings outperformance will…
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Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Oversold: Oil traders punish OPEC for promising too much (Reuters)

VIENNA As OPEC's latest meeting wrapped up in Vienna on Thursday night, ministers congratulated each other on its rare spirit of amity and consensus. The talks were, without a doubt, a success.

Here’s what Trump’s head of the FDA wants to do about high drug prices (Business Insider)

Food and Drug Administration commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb has a plan to tackle high drug prices. 

"Simply put, too many patients are priced out of the medicines they need," Gottli...



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ValueWalk

Student debt rose to a record $1.44T in March, ~$33K per borrower, over double the level in 08

By The Conversation. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Poor and middle-income families need a better way than 529s to save for college Rilsonav / Pixabay

Robert H. Scott III, Monmouth University and Steven Pressman, Colorado State University

A college education is increasingly necessary for su...



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Zero Hedge

Believing The Russian "Hacking" Claim

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Authored by David Swanson via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

Government lies are common when seducing a population to support a war, but the Russian “hacking” claims are unusual in that U.S. officials supply no evidence while the “fact” is just assumed,

When the U.S. public was told that Spain had blown up the Maine, or Vietnam h...



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Digital Currencies

Visualizing The Expanding Universe Of Cryptocurrencies

Courtesy of Zero Hedge

Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency, and its meteoric rise has made it a mainstay of conversation for investors, media, and technologists alike.

In fact, as Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins details, the innovation of the blockchain is changing entire markets, while causing ripples with central banks and the financial industry. At time of publication, the bitcoin price now hovers near US$2,200, a massive increase from this time last year.

But the true impact of Bitcoin is actually far more reaching than this – it’s a...



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Market News

Market Moving News

 

Financial Markets and Economy

Hedge Fund Billionaire Paul Singer: If Trump Agenda Fails, a Recession Could Follow (Fortune)

Market watchers who thought the stock market would drop if Donald Trump were elected were burned following his win: markets rose to new highs instead.

U.S. inflation path since 2012 is worrisome, policymaker says (Reuters)

The current level of U.S. prices is noticeably lower than what it would be if the Federal Reserve had delivered on its 2-percent inflation target, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, calling the trend "worrisome."

...



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Chart School

S&P Breakout on Higher Volume Accumulation

Courtesy of Declan.

While I expected the Dow Jones to be the breakout flyer, instead it was the S&P which led the charge on higher volume accumulation.  Technicals are all in the green with a return of the MACD trigger 'buy'.



The Dow did manage to break past 21,000 with a MACD trigger 'buy' but it's still contained by all-time high resistance at 21,200. The index is still well positioned for a larger breakout, but this is the sixth day of consecutive gains for the index so some pullback can be expe...

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Members' Corner

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Interesting discussion of what affects our behavior. 

Description: "How can humans be so compassionate and altruistic — and also so brutal and violent? To understand why we do what we do, neuroscientist Robert Sapolsky looks at extreme context, examining actions on timescales from seconds to millions of years before they occurred. In this fascinating talk, he shares his cutting edge research into the biology that drives our worst and best behaviors."

Robert Sapolsky: The biology of our best and worst selves

Filmed April 2017 at TED 2017

 

p.s. Roger (on Facebook) saw this talk and recommends the book ...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of May 22nd, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Biotech

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Reminder: Pharmboy is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Beyond just promise, CRISPR is delivering in the lab today

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

Precision editing DNA allows for some amazing applications. Ian Haydon, CC BY-ND

There’s a revolution happening in biology, and its name is CRISPR.

CRISPR (pronounced “crisper”) is a powerful technique for editing DNA. It has received an enormous amount of attention in the scientific and popular press, largely based on the promise of what this powerful gene e...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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Mapping The Market

Bombing - Right or Wrong?

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

I am telling you Angel – makes no sense… BTW:

Republicans Love Bombing, But Only When a Republican Does It

By Kevin Drum, Mother Jones

A few days ago I noted that Republican views of the economy changed dramatically when Donald Trump was elected, but Democratic views stayed pretty stable. Apparently Republicans view the economy through a partisan lens but Democrats don't.

Are there other examples of this? Yes indeed. Jeff Stein points to polling data about air strikes against Syria:

Democr...



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Promotions

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Phil has a chapter in a newly-released eBook that we think you’ll enjoy.

In My Top Strategies for 2017, Phil's chapter is Secret Santa’s Inflation Hedges for 2017.

This chapter isn’t about risk or leverage. Phil present a few smart, practical ideas you can use as a hedge against inflation as well as hedging strategies designed to assist you in staying ahead of the markets.

Some other great content in this free eBook includes:

 

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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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