Posts Tagged ‘Raymond James’

MARKETS RARELY BOTTOM ON A FRIDAY

MARKETS RARELY BOTTOM ON A FRIDAY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Old mare

Jeff Saut at Raymond James, entered the year very cautious and continues to think we are in the middle range of a selling stampede. In addition he points to the interesting fact that markets rarely bottom on a Friday.  Many pundits have pointed to the action in Friday’s market as being very similar to other large volume trend reversals off of a panic bottom.  Saut is not so convinced:

“Recall that “selling stampedes” tend to last 17 – 25 sessions, with only one- to three-session counter-trend rallies, before they exhaust themselves on the downside.  Therefore, we “put blinders on” to last Friday’s late-day upside reversal, consistent with our mantra of “never on a Friday.” That mantra was learned from numerous Friday “head fakes” implying that markets rarely bottom on a Friday once they are into a downtrend. Rather, participants tend to go home over the weekend, brood about their losses, and show up the following week in “sell mode.” So, while the markets may attempt to build on Friday’s late reversal, we have little confidence that any rally will last more than one to three sessions since today is only session 14 from the trading top of January 19th.”

Saut is also suspect of the new secular bull market chatter:

“we remain suspect this is the first leg of a new secular bull market. Rather, we think it is just another “bull move” within the context of the range-bound stock market we have been mired in for the last 10 years. Another driver of Friday’s reversal could have been the “break” below 10,000 on the DJIA, which is also a psychological support level that should be respected.”

Bear and bull sculptures outside the Frankfurt stock exchange

Backing up his continued near-term bearish thesis is action in the metals.  Saut made a prescient call in mid January when he referred to the copper markets as being overheated and warranting some caution in equity markets:

“Then there is ‘Dr. Copper,’ the metal with a Ph.D. in economics, which recently recorded a 12-month rolling rate of return in excess of 150%. Historically such a ‘copper cropper’ has marked a ‘trading top’ in copper and telegraphed caution


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CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS – THE BEAR ISN’T HERE YET

CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS – THE BEAR ISN’T HERE YET

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Polar bear

Strategists at Credit Suisse entered 2010 with a very cautious tone and an outlook similar to our own – 2010 would be a year of halves.  The first half would be a continuation of the trends that helped the market surge in 2009 while headwinds would build near H2 2010 and result in market declines.   The recent downturn in stocks hasn’t changed their outlook and they view the sell-off as a buying opportunity (see JP Morgan’s similar outlook here as well as Raymond James’ outlook here).

The team’s tactical indicators are mildly bullish at current levels and quickly approaching levels that were buys in 2009:

Our tacticals are mildly supportive of equities:

Interestingly, the % of nyse stocks trading above their 10-week MA (currently at 32%) is around similar levels where market bottomed during recent corrections (end of Oct it troughed at 30%, in early July 09 at 37%). Normally a buy signal is when this indicator falls below 20% but perhaps most of the correction has already occurred??

CS1 CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS   THE BEAR ISNT HERE YET

Sentiment data also supports their bullish thesis as the majority of investors remain net bearish:

CS2 CREDIT SUISSE: BUY THE DIPS   THE BEAR ISNT HERE YET

Like us, Credit Suisse sees continuing strong trends in the earnings picture which makes it very difficult to formulate a thesis for a substantial decline in stocks.  Credit Suisse notes the very strong trend in earnings expectations, the high level of “better than expected” earnings and the uptrend in the upgrade cycle.  Bespoke recently noted the outperformance on Monday’s over the last few months.  This has been largely due to the upgrade cycle.  Yesterday alone, there were 41 upgrades of S&P 500 firms versus 13 downgrades according to Briefing.com.  One of the primary reasons we focus a great deal of our research at TPC on the earnings cycle is due to the high influence analysts have on the market.  According to Credit Suisse, analysts on average, upgrade stocks for 11 months prior to the beginning of a new uptrend in the bull market cycle.  This means we could see a strong continued trend in upgrades until Q2 of 2010 – roughly around the same time where we believe earnings outperformance will…
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Phil's Favorites

Senate GOP advances a health care bill. Now what?

 

Senate GOP advances a health care bill. Now what?

Courtesy of Jeffrey Lazarus, Georgia State University; David McLennan, Meredith College, and Rachel Caufield, Drake University

On July 25, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell narrowly managed to keep a Republican effort to reform health care alive. We asked our experts to consider the importance of this procedural vote and what happens next.

Jeffrey Lazarus, Georgia State University

Which...

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ValueWalk

Illinois and Connecticut Face Pension Collapse

By insidesources. Originally published at ValueWalk.

It’s shocking to see the budget horror stories coming out of two of the nation’s leading states. Illinois and Connecticut are in fiscal freefall, and their leaders are taking the exact wrong approach in their misguided efforts to turn things around. If they were smart, they would look to the example of states like Florida to discover how to weather fiscal storms.

tpsdave / Pixabay

Illinois faces a staggering budget gap of close to $10 billion, a crisis worsened by a state pension program funded at just 37 percent and credit downgrades that leave th...



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Zero Hedge

"If The VIX Goes Bananas", Morgan Stanley Shows What It Would Look Like

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

From Chris Metli of Morgan Stanley

It’s easy to become numb to the low volatility environment and the risks it presents.  While trying to pick a trough in vol has been a fool’s errand, focusing on the risks resulting from vol being so low is not.  Low volatility has produced a regime where the risks are asymmetric and negatively convex, so being prepared for an unwind is critical.  This is not a call that vol is about to spike, but you need a plan if it does.

This note details how a short vol unwind might develop. A violent rise in volatility c...



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Digital Currencies

SEC Cracks Down On "Initial Coin Offerings": Concludes Tokens Are Subject To Securities Laws

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

In potentially groundbreaking news for the blockchain community, moments ago the SEC issued a press release, referencing an investor bulletin on Initial Coin Offerings, which concluded that DAO Tokens, a Digital Asset, are securities for ...



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Biotech

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

Biologics: The pricey drugs transforming medicine

Courtesy of Ian HaydonUniversity of Washington

The cells inside this bioreactor are the real pharmaceutical factories. Sanofi Pasteur, CC BY-NC-ND

In a factory just outside San Francisco, there’s an upright stainless steel vat the size of a small car, and it’s got something swirling inside.

The vat is stud...



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Insider Scoop

Morgan Stanley Joins Bull Thesis TEAM On Atlassian Corporation

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related Benzinga's Top Upgrades, Downgrades For July 25, 2017 20 Stocks Moving In Monday's Pre-Market Session ...

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Chart School

Tech Gaining Momentum. Small Caps Recover.

Courtesy of Declan.

Tech markets continued the good work from Friday as buyers continued to bid up the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Large Caps posted small losses but this was more about attention elsewhere than any Large Cap specifics.

The Nasdaq experienced a mini-breakout from the consolidation over the last 3 days (traders on the hourly time frame may find some joy here) which keeps the index on course to test larger upper channel resistance. Technicals are net bullish but its relative performance against peer indices which is doing particularly well; Large Caps in particular.

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of July 24th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Members' Corner

Why we need to act on climate change now

 

Why we need to act on climate change now

Interview with Jan Dash PhD, by Ilene Carrie, Editor at Phil’s Stock World

Jan Dash PhD is a physicist, an expert at quantitative finance and risk management, and a consultant at Bloomberg LP. In his thought-provoking book, Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, A Physicist's Approach, Jan devotes a chapter to climate change and its long-term systemic risk. In this article, Ilene interviews Jan regarding his thoughts on climate change and the way it can affect our futu...



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Mapping The Market

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

This would be excellent news for AAPL and GOOG to a lesser extent although not inconsequential:

The App Economy Will Be Worth $6 Trillion in Five Years 

In five years, the app economy will be worth $6.3 trillion, up from $1.3 trillion last year, according to a report released today by app measurement company App Annie. What explains the growth? More people are spending more time and -- crucially -- more money in apps. While on average people aren't downloading many more apps, App Annie expects global app usership to nearly double to 6.3 billion people in the next five years while the time spent in apps will more than double. And, it expects the...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

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Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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