Posts Tagged ‘renminbi’

China’s Top 10 Business Stories in 2011

Courtesy of Patrick Chovanec

As the year comes to a close, and we look forward to 2012, I continue the tradition I started last year and offer a brief look at the top stories that shaped China’s business and economic climate in 2011:

1. High-Speed Rail.  It was the best of times, it was the worst of times — China’s ambitious high-speed rail program embodied the highest highs and the lowest lows the country experienced this year.  In January, President Obama cited the planned 20,000km network in his annual State of the Union address as a prime example of how America need to catch up to the Chinese.  As if to prove his point, June saw the grand opening of the much-heralded Beijing-Shanghai line, timed to coincide with the Communist Party’s 90th anniversary celebrations.   But even before then, there were signs of trouble on the horizon, starting in February when the powerful head of China’s railway ministry — the project’s godfather — was abruptly fired as part of a massive corruption scandal.  Then a crash on a line near Wenzhou, in which at least 35 people were killed, unleashed a wave of fury on the Chinese internet, forcing the government to re-think the entire project amid charges of cover-up and sloppy construction.  By November, with high-speed trains running at chronically low capacity and construction debts piling up, the railway ministry was asking Beijing for a rumored RMB 800 billion (US$ 126 billion) bailout just to pay the money it owed suppliers.

2.  Inflation.  Few issues preoccupied the average Chinese citizen — or Chinese policymakers — this year as much as rapidly rising prices.   The consumer inflation rate, which began the year just shy of 5%,rose to 6.5% by July.  The increase was led by food prices, particularly pork – a staple part of the Chinese diet — which skyrocketed by more than 50%.  Keenly aware of the potential for popular unrest, Beijing made containing prices its top economic priority — even if that meant reining in growth.  Throughout the year, the central bank repeatedly raised interest rates and bank reserve requirements, in an effort to bring the pace of credit expansion back under control.  The powerful state planning bureau leaned heavily on Chinese companies not to raise prices, and even hit consumer goods giant Unilever with a stiff antitrust fine for publicly discussing possible price hikes.  While CPI did decline to 4.2% by…
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Thursday – Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble!

 

"I’m forever blowing bubbles, 
Pretty bubbles in the air, 
They fly so high, nearly reach the sky, 
Then like my dreams they fade and die. 
Fortune’s always hiding, 
I’ve looked everywhere, 
I’m forever blowing bubbles
Pretty bubbles in the air
."

GoldTreasuries, Junk Bonds, Netflix (we shorted them yesterday), PCLN (we shorted them Monday), Credit Default Swaps – take your pick of what is going to be the next bubble to burst.  

We shorted TLT again yesterday ($105) as I sure wouldn’t lend the US money at those rates and neither, it seems, will the "smart money" guys anymore.  The cost to hedge against losses on U.S. government debt rose to the most in six weeks as investors bet the Federal Reserve will put more cash into the economy.  Credit-default swaps on U.S. Treasuries climbed 1.7 basis points, the biggest increase in more than three weeks, to 49.4, according to data provider CMA. The Fed said Tuesday that slowing inflation and sluggish growth may require further action.  The statement positioned the central bank to expand its near-record $2.3 trillion balance sheet as soon as their November meeting – just in time for a Santa Clause boost for the markets. 

So why does this not make us bullish?  Well, as I said to Members on Tuesday, it was an anticipated statement with no immediate action and we’re at the top of a 10% run for September so, as I said in yesterday’s post, we anticipate a pullback of 2%, back to our 4% line (see post).  Also in yesterday’s post, I mentioned our IWM 9/30 $67 puts ($1.10) and the DIA Oct $105 puts (.89) both of which were good for a reload on yesterday’s silly spike, where I said to Members in the 9:56 Alert:

I like the same IWM and DIA puts as yesterday as we test 10,800 on the Dow – I don’t think it’s going to last.   Tomorrow we lose the usual 450,000 jobs for the week and we have Existing Home Sales at 10, which can now disappoint as Building Permits were a big upside surprise yesterday.  We also get Leading Economic Indicators at 10 but they are expected up just 0.1% and I doubt they go negative.  Friday we have Durable Goods, which should be down 2% and New Home Sales at 10, also now set up to disappoint even


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Dollar Hegemony and the Rise of China

Michael Hudson writes a letter. 

Dollar Hegemony and the Rise of China

Courtesy of Michael Hudson 

Hudson to Premier Wen Jaibao, March 15, 2010

Dear Premier Wen Jiabao,

I write this letter to counteract some of the solutions that Western politicians are recommending for China to cope with its buildup of excess foreign-exchange reserves. Raising the renminbi’s exchange rate against the dollar will not cure the China-US payments imbalance. The dollar glut will continue, and so will the currency fluctuation among the dollar, euro and sterling, leaving no stable store of value. The cause of this instability is that each of these three currency areas has grown top-heavy with by debts in excess of the ability to pay.

What then should China should it do with its buildup of excess reserves, if not recycle its inflows into their bonds? Four possibilities have been suggested: (1) to revalue the renminbi, (2) to flood China’s economy with credit (as Japan did after the Plaza Accord of 1985), (3) to buy foreign resources and assets, and (4) to use excess dollars to buy back foreign investments in China, given US reluctance to permit Chinese investment in America’s own most promising economic sectors.

I explain below why China’s best course is to avoid accumulating further foreign exchange reserves. The most workable solution is to use its official reserves to buy back US and other foreign investments in China’s financial system and other key sectors. This policy will seem more natural as a response to an escalation of US protectionist moves to block Chinese imports or block China’s sovereign wealth funds from buying key US assets.

China’s excess reserves will impose a foreign-exchange loss (as valued in renminbi)

Every nation needs foreign currency reserves to ward off currency raids, as the Asia Crisis showed in 1997. The usual kind of raid forces currencies down. Speculators see a central bank with large foreign currency holdings, and seek to empty them out by borrowing even larger sums, selling the target currency short to drive down its price. This is the tactic that George Soros pioneered against the British pound when he broke the Bank of England.

Malaysia’s counter-tactic was not to let speculators cover their bets by buying the target currency. Its Malaysia’s success in resisting that crisis showed that currency controls prevent speculators from “cashing out” on their exchange-rate bets, blocking their attempt to…
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Chinese Premier: “Protectionism Is Clearly Reasserting Itself”

Chinese Premier: "Protectionism Is Clearly Reasserting Itself"

Courtesy of Zero Hedge  

At the start of today’s Chinese National People’s Congress, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao poured water over expectations that the renminbi may appreciate any time soon, and also indicated that China will "continue its expansionary fiscal policy" by maintaining appropriately loose monetary policy (translation: it is now next to impossible for the Chinese supertanker to steer off direct collision course with the bubble iceberg). He also noted that "The foundation for global economic recovery remains weak; financial risks have not been completely eliminated" and, most disturbingly, said that "trade protectionism is clearly reasserting itself."

The ramification for US trade policy as a result of this admonition will likely continue to be felt over the next 12 months. Yet in an odd moment of clarity, when discussing the domestic economy, Wen noted "latent risks in the banking and public finance sectors among the key challenges to economic growth, alongside now-standard warnings about industrial overcapacity and shortcomings in income distribution." As for the biggest question of how China will approach the USD-CNY relationship, Wen provided little clarity besides promising to "continue to improve the mechanism for setting the (yuan) exchange rate and keep it basically stable at a reasonable and balance level." As Market News notes, that wording, which is frequently trotted out in government statements, is identical to that contained in last year’s report.

Other disclosures from Wen:

  • The government is targetting growth of 8% this year;
  • Consumer price inflation will be kept at around 8%;
  • The government is targeting new loans of CNY7.5 trillion, down from 2009′s record CNY9.59 trillion: he also pointed out that credit policy will be adjusted to make sure money flows to those who should be receiving it, i.e., farmers and small businesses, and restricted to those that shouldn’t, including energy-intensive industries and those experiencing overcapacity;
  • M2 growth in 2010 is targeted at 17%;

Also of note, is a report prepared by the Ministry of Finance which said that the fiscal deficit is planned to be CNY1.05 trillion, or 2.08% of GDP, compared to the 2009 deficit of 2.2% of GDP.

And to the benefit of Chinese skeptics, Wen warned that government will "crack down on excessive property speculation." Just how this will be accomplised in a largely accomodative monetary environment remains to be seen. 

 


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What Will the World Reserve Currency System Become? The Stakes Are Enormous

What Will the World Reserve Currency System Become? The Stakes Are Enormous

Courtesy of Jesse’s Café Américain

The deterioration of the dollar reserve currency regime is obvious.

If we have forecasted correctly, the world will look to some variation of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights as an eventual replacement for the US dollar. Therefore, the recomposition of the SDR next year will become a lightning rod for the global stresses created by an increasingly unstable and impractical system of global trade.

As you may recall, Russia and China have called for the inclusion of more currencies such as the rouble, the yuan, the Aussie and Canadian dollars, and gold and possibly silver into the mix. The BRIC’s seem determined to break the western dominance of global monetary policy.

This may also explain some of the highly emotional,and we would say nonsensical, arguments attacking gold and silver by some of the house economists for the western Banks, and their camp followers and hand puppets in the universities, of late.

The bankers are appalled at the prospect of the new SDR including gold or silver in its new composition to be set in 2010. And so they are jawboning ahead of it. Any country can build its gold and silver reserves in the open market, and the big central bankers find it difficult to manipulate their supplies to their own advantage, despite years of desperate efforts to substitute paper for metal.

Bad enough that the basket may include currencies of non-G7 countries. As you will recall, the G7 was formed when Canada joined the Group of Six: US, Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and Italy. The power balances of the post World War II era are changing, and the shifts in trade and financial power reflect this.

In the interim, there will be regional currency arrangements and trading blocs as in the past. The strength and suitability of the new SDR regime will help to determine the disposition of these regional arrangements.

‘Free trade’ without a floating monetary exchange system is not possible. Otherwise there will be artificial subsidies and penalties among nations, as in all systems of price control. These lead inevitably to imbalances, bubbles, and crises.

The adjustments that are overdue for the dollar and renminbi in particular will make political progress difficult. But the greatest impediment to progress will


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China’s Plans for Replacing the Dollar

China’s Plans for Replacing the Dollar

Courtesy of TIME, by Michael Schuman

A Chinese bank employee counts U.S. dollars in Shandong province
A Chinese bank employee counts U.S. dollars in Shandong province

China’s swipes at the U.S. dollar have been spilling out of Beijing with almost mundane regularity. Every time there is an international economic summit, it seems that some Chinese mandarin reiterates the now familiar complaint that the greenback needs to be replaced as the world’s de facto reserve currency. China usually suggests some "supranational" currency as a dollar substitute, to protect it against instability that could arise from any one country’s errant economic policies. A favorite suggestion is the use of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), the unit of account at the International Monetary Fund.

But Beijing’s leaders may also see China’s own currency, the yuan (also known as the renminbi), as a possible alternative to the dollar. There are indications that China intends to make the yuan a greater factor in international trade and investment, a development that, if successful, would have major implications for the global financial system. HSBC economist Qu Hongbin believes that the yuan could become one of the top three currencies in the world by 2012, with some $2 trillion in trade transacted in the Chinese currency each year. "The internationalization of the renminbi has become a leading item on the policy agenda" in Beijing, Qu concluded in a recent report.

To an extent, a global role for the yuan appears inevitable. How widely a currency is used around the world is usually a function of how important its home country is to the global economy. During the 19th century, when the British Empire reigned supreme, the pound was the top international currency. Since World War II, that role has been played by the dollar, with the U.S. having by far the world’s biggest economy. Now that China is rapidly charging up the list — it currently ranks third and could overtake Japan as No. 2 as soon as next year — there is good reason to believe the yuan could dash into the big league of global currencies.

Right now, however, the yuan is far from that league. In fact, it is practically nowhere to be found in world currency markets. The reason is Chinese policy. Government restrictions prevent the yuan from trading freely around the world or being fully convertible to other currencies in all financial transactions. The yuan’s…
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Phil's Favorites

In-store shopping still matters this holiday season

 

In-store shopping still matters this holiday season

Courtesy of Kelli HollingerTexas A&M University

In-person shopping remains popular. AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

It surprises most millennials to learn that only about 10 percent of all retail purchases are actually made online. Each semester, when I ask hundreds of undergraduate business students to estimate, they consistently guess that between a quarter and half of all retail spending happens on the internet. But t...



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Zero Hedge

Stocks Surge On Biggest Short Squeeze Since Election As Dollar Dumps To Worst Year Since 2009

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Stocks are at record highs (so is debt) so get out and consume America...

Ugly week for China...

German stocks just could not decide what to do this week after Merkel's mishaps...

But solid EU PM...



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Digital Currencies

Ethereum Surges To New Record Highs - Bigger Than Capital One, ICE, & eBay

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Following its big surge Thursday, Ethereum has broken through the psychologically important threshold of $400, establishing a new all-time high - currently hovering above $450.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

...



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Chart School

Happy Thanksgiving :) Friday Should Be A Winner

Courtesy of Declan

Thanksgiving Wednesday was never going to generate an exciting day but it was good to see early week gains retained. Upcoming Thanksgiving Friday is typically a day when Junior traders go wild and decent gains are posted - even if trading volume is light. With last week's lead action I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern was to repeat.

Tech Indices have been leading the charge in recent days and I would look to the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 to be the primary chargers on Friday. Technicals are firmly in the green.

The Nasda...



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Insider Scoop

8 Stocks To Watch For November 22, 2017

Courtesy of Benzinga.

Related CRM 9 Stock's Moving In Tuesday's After Hours Session Salesforce Falls Despite Q3 Beat The Vetr co...

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Biotech

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Reminder: Pharmboy and Ilene are available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

The two obstacles that are holding back Alzheimer's research

Courtesy of Todd GoldeUniversity of Florida

Family members often become primary caregivers for loved ones with Alzheimer’s disease. tonkid/Shutterstock.com

Thirty years ago, scientists began to unlock the mysteries regarding the cause of Alzheimer’...



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ValueWalk

Robert Mugabe Under House Arrest, Military Takes Control Of Zimbabwe

By Andjela Radmilac. Originally published at ValueWalk.

Zimbabwe’s head of state, 93-year-old Robert Mugabe, has been placed under house arrest after what seems to be a military coup took place in the nation’s capital.

By U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse B. Awalt/Released [Public domain], via Wikimedia CommonsRobert Mugabe is safe

Following numerous reports on social media late Thursday night about the increased military presence in Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, the country’s military took...



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Members' Corner

An Interview with David Brin

Our guest David Brin is an astrophysicist, technology consultant, and best-selling author who speaks, writes, and advises on a range of topics including national defense, creativity, and space exploration. He is also a well-known and influential futurist (one of four “World's Best Futurists,” according to The Urban Developer), and it is his ideas on the future, specifically the future of civilization, that I hope to learn about here.   

Ilene: David, you base many of your predictions of the future on a theory of historica...



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Mapping The Market

Puts things in perspective

Courtesy of Jean-Luc

Puts things in perspective:

The circles don't look to be to scale much!

...

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of September 11th, 2017

Reminder: OpTrader is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

 

This post is for all our live virtual trade ideas and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current  trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this virtual portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading virtual portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here ...



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Promotions

NewsWare: Watch Today's Webinar!

 

We have a great guest at today's webinar!

Bill Olsen from NewsWare will be giving us a fun and lively demonstration of the advantages that real-time news provides. NewsWare is a market intelligence tool for news. In today's data driven markets, it is truly beneficial to have a tool that delivers access to the professional sources where you can obtain the facts in real time.

Join our webinar, free, it's open to all. 

Just click here at 1 pm est and join in!

[For more information on NewsWare, click here. For a list of prices: NewsWar...



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Kimble Charting Solutions

Brazil; Waterfall in prices starting? Impact U.S.?

Courtesy of Chris Kimble.

Below looks at the Brazil ETF (EWZ) over the last decade. The rally over the past year has it facing a critical level, from a Power of the Pattern perspective.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

EWZ is facing dual resistance at (1), while in a 9-year down trend of lower highs and lower lows. The counter trend rally over the past 17-months has it testing key falling resistance. Did the counter trend reflation rally just end at dual resistance???

If EWZ b...



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All About Trends

Mid-Day Update

Reminder: Harlan is available to chat with Members, comments are found below each post.

Click here for the full report.




To learn more, sign up for David's free newsletter and receive the free report from All About Trends - "How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week." Tell David PSW sent you. - Ilene...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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